Then, one day in early May, Barack ran into former senator Carol Moseley Braun and her close lobbyist friend Billie Paige in the capitol’s rotunda and invited them to his cramped office. “We discussed the Senate race,” Carol remembered, and although Barack did not mention his own interest, he “pissed me off” by asking “How do I know you’re not going to get in the same trouble that you’ve gotten into before?” if she ran again. “When he challenged me like that, I was really taken aback,” Carol explained, because she considered it an “insulting” question. “Barack, you don’t understand” what “a very hostile environment” the Senate had been for her as an African American woman. “For you not to understand that is pretty shocking to me.” The exchange ended there, but in retrospect Moseley Braun thought “I signaled to Barack” that a return to the U.S. Senate “just was not a real appealing prospect” for her.53
Barack spoke on the Senate floor about attending the funeral of Dick Newhouse, who had held the Hyde Park seat before Alice Palmer and who had died on May 2 at age seventy-eight. “There’s times where all of us get swept up in some of the baser aspects of politics, the gamesmanship, the self-aggrandizement, the vanities,” Barack said. “We all have our feet of clay, we all have our weaknesses.” On the evening of May 9, Harstad Strategic Research launched a seven-day calling program during which 605 likely Democratic primary voters and 603 likely general election voters, with one-quarter of the former included in the latter, would be asked a series of questions. The pollsters’ first question tried to screen out a household where someone worked for the news media, but the next morning the Daily Southtown learned that a poll aimed at measuring Barack Obama’s potential appeal was under way. Legislative correspondent Kristen McQueary called Barack, who immediately came clean.
On Saturday, May 11, McQueary’s story, “State Legislator Considers Bid for Senate,” appeared in the Southtown, with McQueary introducing Barack as someone “whose name may be his biggest political obstacle.” Barack had “said he has approached party leaders and core supporters about running,” and agreed that his name might be a hurdle. “I’ll have to test to what degree it’s a disadvantage in a state-wide race to have an unusual name. It’s a legitimate question. But I will say the last election gave me encouragement. If Rod Blagojevich and Rahm Emanuel can win, maybe there’s hope for a Barack Obama.” The other hurdle was money. “With about $3 to $4 million, you can run about as many television ads as people can stand. Above that, it starts getting on people’s nerves.” But Barack looked forward to taking on Republican incumbent Peter Fitzgerald. “When I examine his record for some evidence of legislation, projects that help working families, paying for college or managing health care costs, I think his record is pretty thin. The more appropriate role of government is to help working families.” On Monday, Rich Miller’s Capitol Fax alerted everyone to McQueary’s scoop: “The Daily Southtown reports that Sen. Barack Obama wants to run for the U.S. Senate against Peter Fitzgerald in 2004.”
Blair Hull’s nascent campaign took interest in Barack, with staffer David Spiegel surveying his biography and unsuccessful race against Bobby Rush. Hull and top consultant Rick Ridder were looking to beef up the millionaire’s campaign team, and at 8:00 A.M. on Thursday, May 16, Hull and Ridder met David Axelrod for breakfast at Ceres Cafe, at the Chicago Board of Trade in the Loop. Hull and Axelrod had met previously, when Hull considered challenging Emanuel for Blagojevich’s congressional seat before Daley encouraged Hull to think bigger. Hull knew recruiting Axelrod was important because “it would be a sign that we really had a chance if I could get him involved in the campaign,” Hull explained. Over breakfast, “they’re sort of feeling each other out,” Rick Ridder remembered, with Axelrod mentioning Barack’s, Gery Chico’s, and Dan Hynes’s potential candidacies. Ridder knew Hull’s background included a domestic violence incident in which charges had not been pursued and research had shown that “unless you know about it, it’s almost impossible to find” any record of the incident. But “Blair had this real weakness of telling everybody everything,” and “during this conversation, Blair does tell David straight out” that “‘I had this domestic violence issue’ and I’m going ‘Whoa,’” Ridder recounted. “I heard Blair Hull tell him that it was out there.” Hull confirmed that “I’m not the kind of guy that hides things,” and he too recalled how “there was some discussion of that” at what Ridder labeled that “fateful breakfast with David Axelrod.” No commitments were made, and back at his office Axelrod told John Kupper that Hull had left him unimpressed.
With Harstad’s poll complete, later that same day Barack’s state campaign fund paid the $17,750 balance due on a total tab of $34,250. On May 21 Chicago Sun-Times gossip columnist Michael Sneed reported that Obama “is seriously exploring jumping into the U.S. Senate race, even if former USS Carol Moseley-Braun is thinking about getting her old job back.” Gery Chico filed his formal statement of candidacy, and African American Sun-Times columnist Laura Washington wrote that Moseley Braun “is likely” to run and that Barack “may be” her “most worrisome challenger.” When the Hyde Park Herald questioned Barack about his plans, he said “we won’t know the final slate of candidates until September of 2003,” fifteen months away, but he again underscored the financial challenge. “If you’re going to be competitive, you need to raise enormous sums of money to get your name and message out, mainly through television advertising.”
On May 23 the Illinois Supreme Court upheld the Gift Ban Act that Barack had played such a central role in helping pass four years earlier, dismissing a low-profile challenge that Barack’s old-school friend Denny Jacobs had filed against it. The law’s grandfather clause loophole had been highlighted when retired senator Jim Rea paid himself $72,500 from his campaign account at the end of 1999, but Barack praised the court for upholding “simple, commonsense rules designed to protect the political process.” In the Senate, with Illinois facing a growing budget crisis as state revenues decreased from the previous year for the first time since 1955 and unpaid bills totaled $1 billion, Pate Philip’s Republicans moved to reduce state funding of Chicago Public Schools teachers’ pensions. “That seems to me to be a deliberate, intentional effort to say ‘We don’t care about Chicago,’” Barack told reporters. Budget discord delayed the Senate’s adjournment until late Sunday night, June 2, the first time in eleven years that spring session had gone beyond May 31, but the budget as passed called for the state to borrow $750 million to fund operating expenses, an unprecedented action.54
After spending so much of May in Springfield, Barack awaited Paul Harstad’s arrival from Colorado to present him and Dan Shomon with the benchmark poll results. Sun-Times political columnist Steve Neal wrote that Barack “would very much like to run for the Senate,” but he would be an also-ran if Carol Moseley Braun entered the race. Barack appeared on Chicago Defender reporter Chinta Strausberg’s cable television show and tried to convince viewers of the importance of state government. “I’ve been really encouraged by my capacity to influence policy at the state level,” even though the new budget was highly disappointing. “Draconian drug laws” meant that prison construction had become “a growing proportion of the state budget,” and it had been difficult to win funds for “prevention and intervention programs as opposed to incarceration strategies” because “politics in Springfield is driven by people’s perceptions” that “being tough on crime . . . is a winning recipe to win elections.” Emphasizing that “it’s our youth who are going into the system,” Barack rued how “prisons have become an economic development tool. In Illinois it’s primarily downstate economies that are being supported by the prison economy” while more dollars were needed to “fund programs for ex-felons to help them transition back into the mainstream.” Once Emil Jones became Senate president in 2003, he would have “enormous influence and power” to reshape state priorities.
The bottom line of Paul Harstad’s poll results—once one worked through the extremely extensive find
ings—was astonishingly encouraging. The survey of likely Democratic primary voters began by asking respondents their feelings—very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, very negative, or don’t know—about sixteen different Illinois politicians. The first two names were Jesse Jackson Jr. and Peter Fitzgerald. Jackson’s positives versus negative percentages cumulated to 46 and 20, Fitzgerald’s to a respectable 37 and 26. The additional fourteen names began with Carol Moseley Braun, Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr., former Chicago schools chief Paul Vallas, and state comptroller Dan Hynes, eventually including Mayor Daley, U.S. representative Jan Schakowsky, Barack, state representative Tom Dart, former Chicago School Board chair Gery Chico, and well-known Cook County treasurer Maria Pappas. On the positive side, Daley, Vallas, and Moseley Braun topped the list at 58, 55, and 50 percent, while the two highest negatives were Jackson Sr. at 33 and Moseley Braun at 26. On “don’t know,” Barack topped the entire list at 72 percent, with Chico at 62, Hynes at 43, Pappas at 30, and Fitzgerald at just 13. Hynes’s positives versus negatives summed to 24 and 4, Chico’s to 15 and 3, and Barack’s to 12 and 2.
The questionnaire then asked, “How would you rate the performance of Peter Fitzgerald as U.S. Senator?” and Democratic voters registered 39 percent positive and 47 percent negative. Then Harstad honed in on the poll’s real purpose. “Thinking about the next Democratic primary election for U.S. Senator, which of these five candidates would you vote for?” The choices were Barack, Moseley Braun, Hynes, Chico, and Pappas, offered in randomized order. Moseley Braun drew 31 percent support, Hynes 14, Pappas 13, Barack 6, and Chico 5, with 30 percent of respondents saying “don’t know.” Then Democratic voters were asked, “and which candidate for Senate on this list do you find unacceptable?” “None” and “don’t know” each got 32 percent, while Moseley Braun received 21, Chico 6, Pappas 4, and Barack and Hynes each 3. After asking about prospective secretary of state and Cook County Board president candidates, including Barack, the poll moved to direct head-to-head face-offs of several Democrats versus Fitzgerald. “Suppose the next election for U.S. Senator were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Peter Fitzgerald. For whom would you vote?” Barack drew 48 percent of Democrats and Fitzgerald 30 percent, with 22 percent responding “don’t know.” Using Mayor Daley’s lesser-known brother Bill as a representative white Democrat with a well-known surname, Daley drew 64 percent support, 16 points better than Barack.
Finally Harstad focused on his own candidate, using a well-tested device to allay respondents’ concern that they were being asked about their own racial attitudes. “Ethnic background has long been a factor in Illinois politics, and I’m going to read you the names of a few candidates for U.S. Senator. Thinking about your neighbors’ reactions, do you think your neighbors would be more likely or less likely to support a candidate by the name of”—with Gery Chico, Maria Pappas, and either Barack or “Barry” Obama, being posed—“or would this particular name make no difference whatsoever to them?” Of the respondents, 53 percent chose “no difference whatsoever” for Chico, Pappas, and “Barry” Obama. Chico registered 9 percent more likely, 14 percent less likely, and “Barry” drew 7 and 11. However, among the half of the Democratic sample who were asked about “Barack” rather than “Barry,” the results were 7 percent more, 23 percent “less likely,” and only 43 percent “no difference.” Thus “Barack” as opposed to “Barry” cost Obama 12 percent of Democratic voters.
Then the poll moved to its most demanding and time-consuming portion, and the caller said they would “read you brief background of four potential candidates. Please tell me which one you would be most likely to vote for.” Blair Hull “founded a successful international company that pioneered new technology in stock trading. Hull sold his company to Goldman Sachs for $500 million.” Jan Schakowsky’s federal and state legislative service was described, as was Gery Chico’s on the city school board and with Mayor Daley. “Barack Obama is a state senator and constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago. He was the first African American editor of the Harvard Law Review.” After hearing that, 190 respondents—31 percent of the Democratic sample—named Barack as their first choice. Schakowsky, Chico, and Hull all trailed with 23, 21, and 4 percent, respectively. When asked for their second choice, Barack picked up an additional 19 percent of likely Democratic voters, for a grand total of 50 percent, with Chico at 44 and Schakowsky at 39.
The 190 people who had named Barack as their top choice were then asked, “What are the main reasons you support Barack Obama?” With multiple answers allowed, Barack’s education—i.e., Harvard—was a clear first, his U of C affiliation a strong second. Then, in a clear give-away of the poll’s underlying purpose, all 605 Democrats were told, “let me read you a brief description of Barack Obama,” a “possible” Senate candidate. “Barack Obama is a constitutional law professor. He has served six years as state Senator” and “is a long-time member of Trinity Church and is married with two daughters. He was the first African-American editor of the Harvard Law Review. As a state Senator, he reduced state income taxes on middle class families and helped pass welfare reform that gets people off welfare and into work. He sponsored a law for after-school programs to keep teens out of trouble and prevent youth crime. He is the lead sponsor of the Cardinal Bernardin Amendment, which provides health care for all Americans. And Obama was one of only four Illinois lawmakers who worked with Senator Paul Simon to pass the toughest ever campaign reform and ethics law in Illinois. Now, based on this description, how much appeal does Barack Obama have as a candidate for U.S. Senator—a great deal, quite a bit, about average, just some, or very little?”
Forty-five percent of likely Democratic voters answered “a great deal,” and 27 percent “quite a bit,” meaning that 72 percent found Barack highly appealing. Then those 439 respondents were asked “What are the main things you find appealing about Barack Obama as a candidate for U.S. Senator?” Now Barack’s issues agenda topped the chart, with welfare reform named by 18 percent of people and 14 percent each citing his interest in youth and his work with Paul Simon. Barack’s educational background and professorial status finished a strong second. Then came the final question: “Suppose the next general election for Senator were today,” with Peter Fitzgerald against Barack Obama, whom would you vote or lean toward voting for? Barack drew 62 and 10 percent, respectively, now swamping Fitzgerald among Democratic voters by a margin of 72 to 14.
Among Harstad’s 603-person sample of likely general election voters, with 148 of the Democratic primary respondents included in this pool, 82 percent admitted they did not know Barack and an additional 13 percent had no feelings pro or con, meaning that 95 percent of Illinois voters were unfamiliar with him. In contrast, 47 percent of respondents felt negatively about Jesse Jackson Sr., 36 percent negatively toward Carol Moseley Braun, and 31 percent negatively toward Jesse Jackson Jr. On the ethnic names question, with half of the sample asked about “Barack” and the other half “Barry,” the “less likely” option drew 22 percent with “Barack” and only 12 percent with “Barry.” At the end, after Barack was described as a “constitutional law professor” and the “first African-American editor of the Harvard Law Review,” and after the Bernardin Amendment and Paul Simon were again cited, the respondents were asked “how much appeal” Barack had. Sixty-two percent of voters said either “a great deal” or “quite a bit.” Then, in a final head-to-head choice of Barack versus Peter Fitzgerald, Barack handily triumphed with 50 percent while Fitzgerald drew just 31. In contrast, when Fitzgerald was paired against Carol Moseley Braun, he outpaced her by 10 percent.
The results were exceptionally encouraging. Barack’s 72 percent attractiveness to Democratic voters following the candidates’ descriptions was “an out-of-the-park score,” according to Harstad’s partner Mike Kulisheck. Barack’s 50 to 31 percent lead over Fitzgerald showed how much potential Barack had if Illinois’s statewide electorate knew who he was. Th
at was especially true among female voters, because after the respondents heard Barack’s biographical summary, his support among women jumped 37 percent, as compared to 22 percent with men. Barack was not surprised by the results of being “Barry Obama,” with Harstad explaining that “you can have one odd name, but two’s a lot tougher.” But Barack gave no consideration to re-adopting his youthful nickname. “I’m Barack Obama. I may have been raised Barry Obama, but I’m Barack Obama. That’s the name I chose and that’s who I am, and I’m not changing.”55
Not long after the Harstad poll, the Washington, D.C., firm of Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal did a slightly smaller poll for Blair Hull. Democratic voters felt favorably about U.S. senator Dick Durbin by a 60 to 12 margin, but Carol Moseley Braun’s split was 49 to 28. Only 10 percent of respondents had heard of Hull, with Dan Hynes, Gery Chico, and even Barack coming in measurably higher, at 51, 27, and 21 percent, respectively. Asked their top choice for a Democratic Senate nominee, Moseley Braun led Hynes 47 to 15, with Barack, Chico, and Hull trailing at 6, 5, and 2 percent. Without Moseley Braun, Hynes drew 34 percent, Chico and Barack 12 apiece, and Hull 5, with 55 percent of likely Democratic voters choosing “undecided.” In the poll’s general election sample, Fitzgerald led Moseley Braun 49 to 42 and Hull 53 to 30. Then the pollsters read out descriptions of the possible Democratic candidates, with Hull characterized as a “successful entrepreneur and businessman” who had risen from “humble roots.” Barack was identified as “the first African-American editor of the Harvard Law Review” and state comptroller Dan Hynes was described as “the son of a powerful Chicago politician.” Those descriptors aided Barack and hindered Hynes, with Democrats giving Moseley Braun 46 percent, Barack 12, Hynes 11, Chico 10, and Hull 9 following those recitations. Without Moseley Braun, Hynes led with 31 percent and Chico came second with 27, while Barack and Hull trailed with 25 and 19 percent, respectively. Nothing in those results contradicted Harstad’s findings, and although the Democratic race was clearly fluid, the evidence seemed clear that Barack enjoyed considerably stronger potential for growth than did Hull.56
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