During Harstad’s presentation, several of Barack’s financial backers requested a written memo summarizing his findings, and Harstad followed up with a barn burner. “Peter Fitzgerald is highly vulnerable,” and “Illinois is becoming more Democratic,” Harstad stressed. “Carol Moseley-Braun could win a Democratic primary but would have great difficulty winning a general election.” However, “without Braun in the race, Obama can win the primary,” because “his profile has enormous potential voter appeal.” Furthermore, “Obama can beat Fitzgerald in a general election,” because “even 27 percent of Republicans choose Barack over Fitzgerald” once they hear his qualifications. “In sum, if Braun opts out of the race, and Obama has the resources to get on television state-wide, Obama can win a primary and go on to win in November.”59
Steve Neal devoted another column to Barack’s potential strength as a statewide candidate, and Barack told the local Hyde Park Herald he hoped to create a federal campaign committee by mid-July. Calling the $14 million that Peter Fitzgerald spent to win in 1998 “obscene,” Barack said, “Fitzgerald is vulnerable, and I think a strong Democrat could defeat him.” He acknowledged that “what Carol does is a factor. It would be silly for me not to take her into account,” but Moseley Braun was unwilling to discuss her plans with the Herald: “It’s ridiculous. It’s an understatement to say it’s too early. We haven’t even had the ’02 elections yet.”
As talk of Barack’s candidacy spread, even the U of C’s student newspaper, the Chicago Maroon, sought him out. While a federal campaign filing would happen soon, only in December would he make a final decision. “If this is a race that I do decide to mount, then unfortunately it . . . may cost as much as $3 or $4 million to run in a primary,” he told the Maroon. Citing the poll results, “if I go forward with the race, then my main liability is my lack of name recognition across the state, which is particularly important given that I have an unusual name. I’m not the kind of person that people will vote for just because they like the sound of my name.” Barack said that lots of travel lay ahead too, because he would “have to devote a significant amount of time to meeting with Democratic leaders across the state” to determine if they “think my candidacy would be viable.” With Chinta Strausberg of the Chicago Defender, Barack sounded more uncertain, saying that 2004 “is still a long way off,” and that “I would expect a firm decision sometime early next year.” As before, Barack made nice regarding Carol Moseley Braun. “I have been a long-time friend of hers. I have no interest in seeing both myself and Carol run because if we both run, we divide the African-American and progressive voting bases. What Carol does would be a factor in my decision.” The Defender awarded him a huge, top-of-the-front-page headline—“Barack Obama Explores U.S. Senate Seat”—and he continued to criticize Fitzgerald’s record whenever he had the opportunity.
In late July, a number of significant contributions landed in Barack’s state committee account. Heiress Abby McCormick O’Neil, whose support Judy Byrd and Laura Hunter had helped nurture, contributed $10,000, a figure that was matched by a trio of gifts from Ariel Capital and its top officers John Rogers and Mellody Hobson. Old friend Greg Dingens added $2,000, but when Barack, Michelle, and their two young girls joined Greg and his wife for dinner one night, they listened as Michelle none too gently argued against going forward with a Senate race. “Michelle started giving Barack some grief, saying ‘Barack, if you really want to make a difference, you should go be a high school principal. You can make more difference as a CPS high school principal than as a U.S. senator,’ and then the two of them got into this big debate about whether that was true or not,” Greg recalled. “I was trying to stay out of it because they were getting pretty animated,” with Michelle hesitant because of “the personal costs” of Barack running yet another race.
One day that late summer the family experienced a second frightening medical emergency when four-year-old Malia woke her parents in the middle of the night and “said, ‘Daddy, I’m having trouble breathing,’” Barack recounted. “We put her in the car, rushed her to the emergency room, and it turned out that she was having an asthma attack.” The crisis passed quickly, and “she’s been fine ever since,” Barack explained.
Senate duties had him on the road to Peoria and other cities where a Judiciary subcommittee held hearings on the capital punishment reforms proposed in April by Governor Ryan’s commission. Even when Barack was at home in Hyde Park, he joined House colleague Barbara Flynn Currie for a panel discussion about instituting public funding for Illinois Supreme Court elections. “Money has come to dominate every aspect of our public lives and our democracy,” Barack complained. “At least the judges shouldn’t be beholden to special interests,” although he knew that “nothing is harder in Springfield than moving forward campaign finance legislation,” and there was no choice but “to be patient.”60
In early August, Steve Neal proclaimed that Blair Hull “is Mayor Daley’s choice for the Democratic nomination” for Senate. Hull and Rick Ridder had added well-known Washington-based media consultant Anita Dunn to their campaign team, and although Dunn believed “there was definitely a potential opening” in the race “for somebody outside of the political establishment,” her first task was working with Hull to develop “basic candidate skills.” Dunn’s hiring filled the slot that Hull and Ridder had earlier hoped David Axelrod would take, but over the course of the summer, Axelrod’s feelings had evolved. When Barack had first mentioned a Senate run, Axelrod thought Obama was “aiming too high” and suggested he wait until Daley stepped down and run for mayor. But Paul Harstad’s poll and the drumbeat of Steve Neal columns made the Democratic race look significantly different in early August than it had in early June.
As a U of C undergraduate in the mid-1970s, David Axelrod had started writing about politics for the Hyde Park Herald. Thanks to veteran progressive politico Don Rose, Axelrod got an internship at the Chicago Tribune, and by 1979, he was one of the Trib’s lead reporters covering city politics. Axelrod’s dream was to ascend at the Trib, but by 1984, Steve Neal had arrived to write a political column and Axelrod believed he never would become political editor. With his young daughter Lauren suffering from worsening epilepsy, Axelrod was receptive to entreaties by U.S. Senate candidate Paul Simon, who was challenging Republican incumbent Charles Percy. Following Simon’s victory, Axelrod and his close friend Forrest Claypool founded a media consulting business, although many Democrats for whom they worked bore no resemblance to the usually principled Simon. Harold Washington, in his last year as mayor, equaled Simon’s stature, but machine apparatchiks like Cook County sheriff Richard Elrod were a notch below even state’s attorney and mayoral aspirant Richard M. Daley, with whom Axelrod signed on in 1989.
Business was very good, with more than a dozen clients contesting 1990 races, including successful Cook County Board president Richard Phelan. After Phelan’s primary win, the Tribune credited “$1 million in TV ads, produced by political media adviser David Axelrod,” for the “fastest elevation of a political unknown to victory locally, almost exclusively through the use of TV commercials.” But Axelrod’s usage of little-known court documents to take down African American jurist Eugene Pincham, a top contender, troubled one coworker and led to a Tribune story calling the tactic “reminiscent of the Willie Horton controversy during the 1988 presidential campaign,” a famously distorted negative ad. Axelrod defended the attack, claiming Pincham “wants his own record obscured” and later stressed that “I believe in partisanship.” But his daughter’s severe illness forced him to turn down offers to work for Democratic presidential nominees Bill Clinton and Al Gore. By 2002 there was no question that “Axelrod’s client list . . . contradicts the self-image” he sought to burnish, and Axelrod later confessed that by August 2002 “Obama offered a path back to the ideals that had drawn me to politics in the first place.”
On August 14, Chicago election lawyer Michael Dorf quietly mailed Federal Election Commission Form 1, a “Sta
tement of Organization,” signed by Cynthia Miller as treasurer of Obama for Illinois, and FEC Form 2, a “Statement of Candidacy,” signed by Barack, to Washington. The next Monday Capital Fax’s Rich Miller reported that the Democratic field was rapidly taking shape. Blair Hull was paying for ten campaign workers to aid state Senate Democrats in their upcoming November races, and Gery Chico “is busily learning Spanish and raising money.” Barack “is traveling the state, looking for support,” but the biggest news was that state comptroller Dan Hynes “is all but certain to run” for the Senate too. “Hynes has a good staff and a strong network. He’ll be an instant favorite when he makes the run,” Miller stated.
The next day Obama for Illinois sent supporters a “Dear Friend” letter from Barack. “I’m actively exploring” a Senate run, and “we are going forward with fund-raising for this race.” A kickoff event was scheduled for October 10. “I wouldn’t be considering this race unless our polling data showed we could win,” the letter went on, and a copy of Steve Neal’s column detailing Harstad’s numbers was appended for easy reference. Barack said he was “lining up support from key elected officials,” and “we are in the process of assembling a top-flight team to manage my campaign.” David Axelrod had “signed on,” and “if we can raise the money to put our message on television,” prospects would be excellent. Hull’s campaign got a copy of the letter, and Axelrod’s decision to go with Barack “was clearly seen as significant” for a candidate who previously had seemed like lesser competition than Dan Hynes or even Gery Chico.61
As November’s elections drew nearer, the odds of a Democratic statewide sweep increased even further. Rod Blagojevich seemed certain to defeat Jim Ryan, and with Emil Jones having more than $3 million to bankroll Democratic Senate races, there seemed to be no doubt that Democrats would seize control of the Senate by at least 32–27. Barack flippantly told the Hyde Park Herald that “running unopposed is the way to run,” but having a free ride back to Springfield allowed him to focus almost all his attention on raising his profile as a potential U.S. Senate candidate. He expected to be the new chairman of the Senate’s Public Health and Welfare Committee if the Democrats took control, so he held a series of ten town hall meetings across Illinois to address health care issues. Approval of his Bernardin Amendment, Barack emphasized, “would change Illinois to a single-payer system where everyone received health benefits.” Thanks to new federal funding, Governor Ryan announced that KidCare would expand to provide FamilyCare coverage for almost twenty-nine thousand poor working parents, even though Pate Philip had prevented Barack from winning Senate approval for such an expansion.
In mid-September, Barack flew to Washington to attend the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC)’s annual weekend of meetings. He wanted to call on well-known congressional prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg as well as talk up his candidacy with old Harvard friends like Tom Perrelli and Bruce Spiva. But Barack’s primary goal was to use the CBC gathering to get out the word that Illinois had a potential African American U.S. senator whose name was not Carol Moseley Braun. Barack arrived knowing nothing about the long-standing traditions of CBC’s annual weekend. Calling it Springfield for African Americans would understate the attractiveness of the surroundings, but when Barack returned to Chicago, he told a bemused Jeremiah Wright he had been astonished by what a “meat market” the gathering was, with multiple women openly propositioning Barack and inviting him up to their hotel rooms. “He came back in shock because he went there to network and to let people know” of his desire to run if Moseley Braun did not. “‘Pastor, do you know what they do?’” Wright remembered Barack asking him. “He was in shock,” and it left Wright thinking that not only was Barack “a guy with high morals” but also that “he really doesn’t know how people are” concerning sex.
Barack continued to talk up his record of tackling “the issues facing working families.” Publicity was key. “If people know who I am, meet me, hear me speak or know my track record, I think I can get their votes. The burden is on me to make myself better known.” Barack wanted to stress, even to readers of the African American weekly Chicago Weekend, that he was seeking more than just black votes. “I have a track record of being able to get crossover votes,” as his 2000 race had shown, and he had “an appeal that goes beyond the African-American community. I spent much of the summer traveling across the state,” receiving “favorable responses because we’re talking about issues that affect everybody.” Barack said he had spoken with Carol Moseley Braun, but he was focused “on putting together the resources that would allow me to be an effective candidate,” with a fund-raising goal of $3 million. “I’ve been an effective state Senator, and I can be an even more effective U.S. Senator. I believe there are some issues that can only be effective at the federal level. My running just means I think I can do more in another position.”62
By mid-September, Barack moved to expand his team beyond Dan Shomon and Cynthia Miller. He asked young attorney Raja Krishnamoorthi, now practicing at Mayer Brown, to serve as his part-time, unpaid policy director. A year earlier, Katrina Emmons, a twenty-year-old graduate of the University of Chicago, had joined Miner Barnhill as a paralegal. She shared an office with Scott Lynch-Giddings, a talented actor holding down a similar day job. As she approached her first anniversary, Katrina told Scott about her interest in politics. He recommended she e-mail Barack, who invited her to lunch at Whole Foods. Katrina anticipated volunteering a few hours a week and was taken aback when Barack was “really direct” in asking if she had “baggage” that could be problematic. He handed her a paperback of Dreams From My Father, and said, “You need to read this.” A few days later, Barack called and asked, “Do you want to come work for me?” which meant leaving Miner Barnhill. “I can pay you for three months. I can’t guarantee you that I’m going to run,” but “if it doesn’t work out and I don’t run, I’ll help you find a job somewhere else.” Katrina wanted to think about it, but Barack asked her to meet Dan Shomon. Within fifteen minutes, Dan offered twenty-one-year-old Katrina the title of deputy finance director of Obama for Illinois, and she accepted. There was no finance director yet, although Barack and Dan had already asked Claire Serdiuk, the campaign scheduler for U.S. senator Dick Durbin, what her plans were once Durbin’s cakewalk reelection race ended in early November. By the end of September, Serdiuk agreed to join Barack’s campaign, and a lease was signed for three modest rooms on the fourteenth floor of 310 South Michigan Avenue, a building undergoing renovation. Phone service was set up, and computers and some used office furniture were acquired.
One painful discovery marred the new launch: Obama for Congress 2000 (OFC) had wrongly accepted $5,500 in contributions toward the general election, in which Barack of course had never run, and Federal Election Commission rules required immediate refunds. By then, OFC’s indebtedness to Barack and Michelle had been whittled down to $5,000, but this new revelation forced Barack to make another personal loan to OFC, leaving him and Michelle $10,500 in the hole. By early October, Cynthia Miller and Katrina Emmons had Obama for Illinois up and running, with Katrina soon purchasing the domain names www.obamaforillinois.com and www.barackobama.com.63
In late September, nationwide debate intensified as President George W. Bush warned that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein likely possessed weapons of mass destruction and that only a tangible threat of military action against Hussein’s regime could force Iraq to allow a thorough international inspection of Hussein’s stockpiles. On Saturday night, September 21, progressive Chicago donor Bettylu Saltzman talked about the danger of U.S. military intervention with some friends over dinner, and the next morning she telephoned old activist friend Marilyn Katz to suggest they call together a group of like-minded acquaintances to organize a rally opposing any U.S. use of military force. On Tuesday about a dozen antiwar progressives gathered at Saltzman’s home and chose Wednesday, October 2, eight days later, for a lunchtime event outside the U.S. federal building in the downtown Loop.
The
day after Saltzman’s gathering, Barack told the Chicago Defender’s Chinta Strausberg that “the president has not made his case for going into Iraq.” Since “we have severe problems here at home” given the huge economic downturn since the 9/11 terror attacks, President Bush’s “neglect of the economy does nothing to enhance America’s long-term security” and any military action in Iraq would be “a cover-up for a failing economy.” Over the weekend, Barack went downstate for a Saturday-night speech to Randolph County Democrats in Sparta, so when Bettylu Saltzman called the Obamas’ home to ask Barack to speak at Wednesday’s protest, Michelle said she would tell him when he got home. Before returning Saltzman’s call, Barack discussed the invitation with Dan Shomon. “What do you think, chief?” Barack asked, using his regular salutation. “He knew, and I knew, that the liberal progressives were key in any Democratic primary,” Shomon explained, but Barack worried about the potential political damage if he opposed U.S. military action that most national Democratic politicians were on the cusp of endorsing. “You know I’m going to do this speech,” Barack told Shomon, because “I believe it’s right,” but Barack was “very worried that he was going to eliminate his chance to be in the U.S. Senate.” Barack also telephoned David Axelrod, who favored speaking, and a Sunday conference call was set up including Raja Krishnamoorthi and Axelrod’s friend Pete Giangreco, a Democratic campaign strategist whom David had been trying to sell on Obama. State comptroller Dan Hynes was a client of Giangreco and his partner Terry Walsh, but Axelrod had been telling Pete that there was “something special” about Barack, whom David believed was “the real deal.” Axelrod agreed with Shomon that opposing intervention in Iraq would not harm Barack in a multicandidate Democratic primary, but Giangreco was much more hesitant. On the call, Barack said he intended to call any military action in Iraq a “dumb war,” a label that troubled Giangreco. But Barack was firm. “I’m very comfortable saying so,” and “my instinct is to do this.” On Monday Barack telephoned Bettylu to say that he would speak at the Wednesday rally.
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