by Robert Bryce
17 First Solar, 2009 10-K report, http://investor.firstsolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=201491&p=irol-sec&seccat01.1_rs=11&seccat01.1_rc=10.
18 Jack Lifton, interview with author, August 28, 2009; David Trueman, interview with author, August 30, 2009.
19 Kate Galbraith, “More Sun for Less: Solar Panels Drop in Price,” New York Times, August 26, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/27/business/energy-environment/27solar.html.
20 “Molycorp Minerals: Global Outlook.”
21 Keith Bradsher, “China Racing Ahead of US in the Drive to Go Solar,” New York Times, August 24, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/business/energy-environment/25solar.html.
22 Christopher Calnan, “City Council Gives Austin Energy the Go-Ahead for Major Solar Project,” Austin Business Journal, March 5, 2009, http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/03/02/daily49.html.
23 Tom Zeller Jr. and Keith Bradsher, “Jobs Question Jeopardizes Wind Farm’s Stimulus Deal,” New York Times, November 5, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/06/business/energy-environment/06wind.html?_r=1.
Chapter 14
1 Robert Bryce, “Not by Energy Efficiency Alone,” Energy Tribune, March 18, 2008, http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=820.
2 House Energy and Commerce Committee, American Clean Energy and Security Act, 2009, http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090515/hr2454.pdf.
3 Energy Information Administration, “World Carbon Intensity—World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels Per Thousand Dollars of Gross Domestic Product Using Market Exchange Rates, 1980–2006,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1gco2.xls.
4 Energy Information Administration, “World Energy Intensity—Total Primary Energy Consumption Per Dollar of Gross Domestic Product Using Purchasing Power Parities, 1980–2006,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1p.xls. Note that energy intensity fell faster in about seventeen countries not listed here, including Chad, Guam, Laos, and Afghanistan.
5 Energy Information Administration, Table 1.7, “Primary Energy Consumption Per Real Dollar of Gross Domestic Product,” Monthly Energy Review, May 2009, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec1_16.pdf.
6 Energy Information Administration, Table 1.7, “Primary Energy Consumption Per Real Dollar of Gross Domestic Product,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec1_16.pdf.
7 The U.S. population in 1980 was 227.7 million. See U.S. Census Bureau, “No. HS-1. Population: 1900 to 2002,” in Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-01.pdf. In 2006, the U.S. population was about 300 million. See Associated Press, “US Population Hits 300 Million Mark,” October 17, 2006, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15298443/.
8 It’s worth noting that more than forty countries saw bigger per-capita declines during that time period, including Afghanistan, North Korea, and nearly two dozen African countries. That data is omitted here for the sake of brevity. The five countries with the biggest per-capita declines in energy use include, in order, Liberia, Guam, Afghanistan, Chad, and Somalia. All saw declines of more than 50 percent.
9 Ibid.
10 EnchantedLearning.com, “U.S. States (plus Washington, D.C.),” n.d., http://www.enchantedlearning.com/usa/states/area.shtml.
11 New York Times, “France,” http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/france/index.html.
12 New York Times, “Switzerland,” http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/switzerland/index.html.
13 According to EnchantedLearning.com, Oklahoma covers 69,900 miles (http://www.enchantedlearning.com/usa/states/area.shtml). According to the CIA World Factbook, Puerto Rico covers 13,790 square kilometers, or about 5,300 square miles (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2147rank.html).
14 Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Table 1-11, “Number of U.S. Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances,” n.d., http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html. The 1973 number is my estimate based on 1970 and 1975 data.
15 Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum Navigator,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttupus2a.htm.
16 U.S. Department of Transportation, “Historical Monthly VMT Report,” n.d., http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel/tvt/history/.
17 Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum Navigator.”
18 Nuclear Energy Institute, “Resources and Stats: Generation Statistics,” n.d., http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/graphicsandcharts/generationstatistics/.
19 In July 2009, sales of large SUVs had fallen by 45 percent compared to July 2008. Pickup truck sales fell by 20 percent. During the same time period, sales of small and medium-sized cars were also down, but their declines were much smaller, 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively. There were only two vehicles to show positive sales growth in July 2009, and they were both midsized cars: the Ford Fusion and the Volkswagen Jetta, which saw their sales increase by 4.3 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. Data from Wall Street Journal online, “Market Data Center: Auto Sales. Overview Charts,” http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html, accessed August 7, 2009.
20 Whitehouse.gov, “President Obama Announces National Fuel Efficiency Policy,” May 19, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/President-Obama-Announces-National-Fuel-Efficiency-Policy/.
21 New York Times, “Culling the Gas Hogs,” August 6, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/opinion/07fri1.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=fuel%20efficiency%20and%20ford%20f-series&st=cse.
22 Leslie Guevarra, “Empire State Building to Become a Model of Energy Efficiency,” GreenerBuildings.com, April 6, 2009, http://www.GreenerBuildings.com/news/2009/04/06/empire-state-building-become-model-energy-efficiency.
23 David Heacock, Dominion Resources, interview with author via phone, May 26, 2009.
24 McKinsey & Company, “Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the US Economy,” July 2009, http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/electricpowernaturalgas/downloads/US_energy_efficiency_full_report.pdf, iv.
25 Ibid., 109.
26 Ibid., viii.
27 William Stanley Jevons, The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines (London: Macmillan, 1866).
28 John Polimeni, interview with author by e-mail, October 20, 2008.
29 For example, see Lorna A. Greening, David L. Greene, and Carmen Difiglio, “Energy Efficiency and Consumption—the Rebound Effect—A Survey,” Energy Policy (June 2000): 389–401. See also Kenneth A. Small and Kurt Van Dender, “Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect,” The Energy Journal, January 1, 2007.
30 Wikipedia, “James Watt,” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Watt.
31 William Tucker, Terrestrial Energy: How Nuclear Power Will Lead the Green Revolution and End America’s Energy Odyssey (Savage, MD: Bartleby Press, 2008), 133.
Chapter 15
1 My interviews with climate scientists include talks with Roger Pielke Sr. and Roger Pielke Jr. Both are concerned about the issue of carbon dioxide emissions, but both agree that carbon dioxide may not be the most important issue when talking about potential climate change. The Pielke Sr. interview was published May 16, 2007. See Robert Bryce, “Energy Tribune Speaks with Roger Pielke, Sr.,” http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=487&idli=3. The Pielke Jr. interview was published March 16, 2009. See Robert Bryce, “An Interview with Roger Pielke, Jr., Center for Science and Technology Policy Research,” http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1441.
2 White House, “Remarks by the President at the National Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting,” April 27, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-the-National-Academy-of-Sciences-Annual-Meeting/.
3 Vaclav Smil, Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years (Cambridge: MIT P
ress, 2008), 180.
4 John M. Broder, “With Something for Everyone, Climate Bill Passed,” New York Times, June 30, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/us/politics/01climate.html.
5 For an example of this, see Climateprogress.org.
6 Mark Twain, Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, Chapter 21. Available at http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/t/twain/mark/finn/chapter21.html.
7 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2009_downloads/renewables_section_2009.pdf.
8 Population figures via Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html.
9 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, Table 16.2, “Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region in the Reference Scenario.”
10 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
11 Bibhudatta Pradhan, “India Rejects Any Greenhouse-Gas Cuts Under New Climate Treaty,” Bloomberg, June 30, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091 &sid=aWs0Pts2Kxes.
12 For an interview with Dyson, see the May 6, 1999, edition of Charlie Rose, http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/4308.
13 Freeman Dyson, “Heretical Thoughts About Science and Society,” Edge.org, August 8, 2007, http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/dysonf07/dysonf07_index.html.
14 Robert Bryce, “Gore’s Zero Emissions = Zero Sense,” Energy Tribune, August 2007, http://www.robertbryce.com/01.
15 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php.
16 William Tucker, Terrestrial Energy: How Nuclear Power Will Lead the Green Revolution and End America’s Energy Odyssey (Savage, MD: Bartleby Press, 2008), 11.
17 David Kestenbaum, “Japan Wrestles with Kyoto Accord Promises,” National Public Radio, October 1, 2007, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14087783.
18 Isabel Reynolds, “Japan Should Set Mid-Term Emissions Targets—Envoy,” Reuters, February 13, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUST53159.
19 Energy Information Administration, “Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980–2006,” December 8, 2008, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1co2.xls.
20 Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook, “Field Listing: Population,” n.d., https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2119.html.
21 Steven F. Hayward, “The Real Cost of Tackling Climate Change,” Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120934459094348617.html.
22 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “State Personal Income 2008,” March 24, 2009, http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/spi/2009/xls/spi0309.xls.
23 U.S. Census Bureau, “Table 1, Projections of the Population Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050,” http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/np2008-t1.xls.
24 International Energy Agency, “Key World Energy Statistics, 2008,” http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2008/key_stats_2008.pdf, 49, 51, 57.
25 Ibid., 51.
26 Hayward, “The Real Cost of Tackling Climate Change.”
27 Ibid., 53.
28 For more on Pielke, see his homepage at the University of Colorado at Boulder, http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/.
29 Roger A. Pielke Jr., “Statement to the Committee on Government Reform of the United States House of Representatives,” July 20, 2006, http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-2466-2006.09.pdf.
30 Institution of Mechanical Engineers, “Climate Change: Adapting to the Inevitable?” February 2009, http://www.imeche.org/NR/rdonlyres/D72D38FF-FECF -480F-BBDB-6720130C1AAF/0/Adaptation_Report.PDF, 2 (hereafter cited as “full report”).
31 Institution of Mechanical Engineers, news release, “Climate Change: Adapting to the Inevitable?: New Research Paints True Picture of Our Planet’s Future” (hereafter cited as “news release”), n.d., http://www.imeche.org/NR/rdonlyres/D961AE6B-645C-403A-A0D4-19BA0D3E9B95/0/AdaptationRelease.pdf.
32 Institution of Mechanical Engineers, full report, 2.
33 Ibid., 25.
34 Institution of Mechanical Engineers, news release.
35 National Academy of Sciences, “Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change,” 2009, http://cart.nap.edu/cart/deliver.cgi?record_id=12595, 14.
36 Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures as Percent of Gross Domestic Product,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gif.
37 Jeff Goodell, “Coal’s New Technology: Panacea or Risky Gamble?” Yale Environment 360, July 14, 2008, http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2036.
38 Fred Krupp, speech at CERAWeek conference, hosted by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Houston, February 12, 2009.
39 Howard Herzog, speech at CERAWeek conference, Houston, February 13, 2009.
40 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained World,” 2007, http://web.mit.edu/coal/The_Future_of_Coal.pdf, ix.
41 Ibid., x.
42 Kate Galbraith, “Salazar Talks Guns, Parks and Solar Power,” New York Times, March 24, 2009, http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/salazar-talks-guns-parks-and-solar-power/.
43 Nobuo Tanaka, speech in Bergen, Norway, May 27, 2009, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/speech/2009/Tanaka/Bergen_CCS_notes.pdf, 2.
44 Associated Press, “US Energy Sec: World Wants Stable Oil Prices, Spikes Could Hurt Economic Recovery,” May 23, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=7662471.
45 David Sandalow, “Statement of David Sandalow, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Policy and International Affairs, Before the Committee on Environment and Public Works, United States Senate,” August 6, 2009, http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=e2ec9004-e94d-41d6-81c6-a3f8c9bd9975.
46 Paul W. Parfomak, “Carbon Control in the US Electricity Sector: Key Implementation Uncertainties,” Congressional Research Service, December 23, 2008, https://secure.wikileaks.org/leak/crs/R40103.pdf, 15.
47 U.S. Department of Energy, “Secretary Chu Announces $2.4 Billion in Funding for Carbon Capture and Storage Projects,” May 15, 2009, http://www.energy.gov/news2009/7405.htm.
48 Andres Cala, “Europe Bets $1.4B on Carbon Capture,” Energy Tribune, May 29, 2009, http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1844.
49 Goodell, “Coal’s New Technology.”
50 Ibid.
51 Greenpeace, “False Hope: Why Carbon Capture and Storage Won’t Save the Climate,” n.d. http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/usa/press-center/reports4/false-hope-why-carbon-capture/executive-summary-false-hope.pdf.
52 Energy Information Administration, “Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980–2006.”
53 That 3 billion tons is also approximately equal to emissions from the U.S. electric utility sector. (That sector accounts for about 40 percent of total U.S. emissions, or about 2.4 billion tons.) Carbon dioxide emissions data is from Energy Information Administration, “Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980–2006.”
54 Vaclav Smil, “Energy at the Crossroads: Background Notes for a Presentation at the Global Science Forum Conference on Scientific Challenges for Energy Research, Paris,” May 17–18, 2006, http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~vsmil/pdf_pubs/oecd.pdf, 21. Also, carbon dioxide reaches a critical point at 74 atmospheres, which is about 1,087 psi. For more on this, see Economy-point.org, “Critical Point (thermodynamics),” n.d., http://www.economy-point.org/c/critical-point-thermodynamics.html.
55 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009. In 2008, global production was 81.8 million barrels per day.
56 Apache Corporation, “Topic Report
: Tanker Market Review,” July 14, 2008, http://www.apachecorp.com/explore/explore_features/browse_archives/View_Article/?docdoc=742.
57 Smil, “Energy at the Crossroads.”
58 Paul Freund and Olav Kaarstad, Keeping the Lights On: Fossil Fuels in the Century of Climate Change (Oslo: Universitetsflorlaget, 2007), 156. The authors estimate that the parasitic load would be about 18 percent on a combined-cycle natural gas–fired power plant and about 28 percent on a coal-fired plant.
59 Guy Chazan, “Locals Try Sinking Plan to Store CO2 Underground,” Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125476964655765445.html.
60 Peabody Energy, “Message from Chairman and CEO,” n.d., http://www.peabodyenergy.com/Profile/ceomessage.asp. For Svec quote, see Clifford Krauss, “Natural Gas Hits a Roadblock in New Energy Bill,” New York Times, September 7, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/07/business/07gas.html?_r=1&ref=business.
Chapter 16
1 Environmental Protection Agency, “Mercury: Human Health,” http://www.epa.gov/mercury/health.htm.
2 U.S. Geological Survey, “Major Findings from USGS Mercury in Stream Ecosystem Studies,” n.d., http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/mercury/majorfindings.html. Barbara C. Scudder, Lia C. Chasar, Dennis A. Wentz, Nancy J. Bauch, Mark E. Brigham, Patrick W. Moran, and David P. Krabbenhoft, “Mercury in Fish, Bed Sediment, and Water from Streams Across the United States, 1998–2005,” n.d. (mid-August 2009), http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2009/5109/pdf/sir20095109.pdf, 10.
3 U.S. Geological Survey, “Major Findings from USGS Mercury in Stream Ecosystem Studies.”
4 Scudder et al., “Mercury in Fish,” 2.
5 Ibid., 1.
6 Environmental Protection Agency, “Mercury: Basic Information,” n.d., http://www.epa.gov/mercury/about.htm.
7 Matt Pottinger, Steve Stecklow, and John J. Fialka, “Invisible Export—A Hidden Cost of China’s Growth: Mercury Migration,” Wall Street Journal, December 20, 2004, http://www.aug.edu/~sbajmb/Clippings/2004-12-17-ChinaMercury.pdf.