by Robert Bryce
51 Neil Dowling, “Test Drive: Hyundai i30 Diesel,” November 26, 2008, http://www.carsguide.com.au/site/news-and-reviews/story/test_drive_hyundai_i30_diesel/Carsguide.com.au.
52 Stuart Birch, “Mercedes-Benz Plans Hybrid Super Saloon,” Telegraph.co.uk, September 9, 2009, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/6157048/Mercedes-Benz-plans-hybrid-super-saloon.html.
53 Greenercars.org, http://www.greenercars.org/highlights.htm.
54 Lawrence Ulrich, “More with Less,” Popular Science, October 2009, 24. See also Martin LaMonica, “Ford’s EcoBoost Tech Busts into Showrooms,” Cnet.com, July 17, 2009, http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10288882-54.html.
55 For more on french-fry grease to motor fuel, see Aimee Levitt, “Wash. U. Turns French Fry Grease into Biodiesel,” Riverfront Times, December 1, 2009, http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/2009/12/wash_u_turns_french_fry_grease_into_biodiesel.php.
56 Chuck Squatriglia, “Prius Sales Top 1 Million. Want One? Better Move Fast,” Wired, May 15, 2008, http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/05/prius-sales-top/.
Chapter 20
1 ClimateProgress.org, “Southern Company Embraces the Only Practical and Affordable Way to ‘Capture’ Emissions at a Coal Plant Today—Run It on Biomass,” March 18, 2009, http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/18/southern-company-biomass-georgia-power-coal-cofiring/.
2 Matthew Wald, “A Bid to Cut Emissions Looks Away from Coal,” New York Times, October 31, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/science/earth/01carbon.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=wald%20and%20a%20bid%20to%20cut%20emissions&st=cse.
3 ClimateProgress.org, “Energy and Global Warming News for November 3: Yet Another Coal Plant to Be Replaced by a ‘Plant’ Plant! And South Dakota’s Big Stone 2 Coal Plant Is Dead,” November 3, 2009, http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/03/energy-and-global-warming-news-for-november-3-coal-plant-to-biomass-power/.
4 Katy Cummins, “Austin Energy Is Key in Race for Mayor,” KXAN.com, April 17, 2009, http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/politics/local_politics/austin_energy_key_in_race_for_mayor.
5 Daniel Mattola, “Biomass: A Question of Wood, Not Could,” Austin Chronicle, August 22, 2008, http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/story?oid=oid:663310.
6 American Renewables data, “Nacogdoches Power,” n.d., http://www.amrenewables.com/our-projects/nacogdoches-power.php.
7 Energy Information Administration, “Electricity: U.S. Data,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelelectric.html.
8 Here’s the math: 33,629 megawatts x 10,000 tons/year = 336.29 million tons/ year.
9 This estimate is from the author based on United Nations Environmental Program data. In 2004, North American per-capita wood consumption was about 700 kilograms. That’s equal to about 1,540 pounds per person for 307 million Americans, and 1,540 x 307 million = 472.78 billion pounds, or about 236.4 macro metric (MM) tons. United Nations Environmental Program, “Global Wood Consumption,” http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-wood-consumption.
10 ClimateProgress, “Southern Company Embraces.”
11 Vaclav Smil, Energies: An Illustrated Guide to the Biosphere and Civilization (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1999), 118. Note that Smil in this book gives a range for forest output of 0.4 to 0.9 watts per square meter. See also, Smil, Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008), 85; Smil, Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003), 265.
Chapter 21
1 Steve Connor, “Warning: Oil Supplies Are Running Out Fast,” Independent, August 3, 2009, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html.
2 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2009_downloads/renewables_section_2009.pdf.
3 Selena Williams and Liam Moloney, “Enel, EDF to Build Nuclear Plants in Italy,” Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124932829249202353.html.
4 CNN, “China, Australia Ink $41 Billion Gas Deal,” August 19, 2009, http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/08/18/china.aus.gas/.
5 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
6 Masumi Suga and Shunichi Ozasa, “China to Build More Nuclear Plants, Japan Steel Says,” Bloomberg, September 7, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a2lUkzmYNGWI.
7 World Nuclear Association, “World Nuclear Power Reactors and Uranium Requirements,” http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html.
8 Energy Information Administration, “Mexico Energy Profile,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=MX. In 2008, Mexico had about 54,000 megawatts of installed capacity.
9 World Nuclear Association, “World Nuclear Power Reactors and Uranium Requirements.”
10 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
11 World Nuclear Association, “World Nuclear Power Reactors and Uranium Requirements.”
12 Ibid.
13 Ibid., BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
14 Hewitt Crane, Edwin Kinderman, and Ripudaman Malhotra, A Cubic Mile of Oil: Realities and Options for Averting the Looming Global Energy Crisis (New York: Oxford University Press), prepublication copy, 188.
15 See, for example, Cesare Marchetti, “On Decarbonization: Historically and Perspectively,” International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, January 2005, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-05-005.pdf.
16 Ibid.
17 International Energy Agency, “IEA Executive Director: The Climate Challenge Is Immense but We Have the Clean Technology,” November 25, 2008, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=277.
18 Pew Center on Global Climate Change, “History of Kyoto Protocol,” n.d., http://www.pewclimate.org/history_of_kyoto.cfm.
19 Nicole Winfield and Alessandra Rizzo, “UN Chief Rebukes G8 over Climate Failures,” Associated Press, July 9, 2009, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jd7k_fE2R4LuS8q9w0fglmjvKlBgD99B03085.
20 Environmental Protection Agency, “Clean Air Interstate Rule,” http://www.epa.gov/interstateairquality/.
21 Roberto F. Aguilera, “The Past, Present, and Future of the Global Energy Market,” EU Energy Policy Blog, March 5, 2009, http://www.energypolicyblog.com/?p=549.
22 Robert Bryce, “Energy Tribune Speaks with Duncan MacLeod,” Energy Tribune , September 9, 2008, http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=978.
23 Reuters, “Exxon Says N. America Gas Production Has Peaked,” June 21, 2005, http://www.reuters.com/article/Utilities/idUSN2163310420050621.
24 Ibid. For Raymond’s retirement, see ABCNews.com, “Oil: Exxon Chairman’s $400 Million Parachute,” April 14, 2006, http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/PainAtThePump/story?id=1841989.
25 Julian Darley, High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2004), 2.
26 Mike Ruppert, “Interview with Matthew Simmons,” Oilcrash.com, August 18, 2003, http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/blackout.htm.
27 Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies (Gabriola Island, British Columbia: New Society Publishers, 2003), 129.
28 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
29 H. deForest Ralph, “Shale Gas: The Black Swan in the Gas Patch,” Energy Tribune , March 4, 2009, http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1400.
30 Leta Smith, “Shale Gas Outside of North America: High Potential but Difficult to Realize,” Cambridge Energy Research Associates, April 2009, summary page.
31 One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 5,487 cubic feet of natural gas.
32 Navigant Consulting, “North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment,” July 4, 2008, http://www.cleanskies.org/upload/MediaFiles/Files/Downloads2/finalncippt2.pdf, 14.
33 ICF International, Table 7, “Availability, Economics, and Production Potential of Nort
h American Unconventional Natural Gas Supplies,” November 2008, http://www.ingaa.org/cms/31/7306/7628/7833.aspx, 51.
34 Potential Gas Committee, “Potential Gas Committee Reports Unprecedented Increase in Magnitude of US Natural Gas Resource Base,” June 18, 2009, http://www.mines.edu/Potential-Gas-Committee-reports-unprecedented-increase-in-magnitude-of-U S-natural-gas-resource-base.
35 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
36 Potential Gas Committee, “Potential Gas Committee Reports Unprecedented Increase.”
37 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
38 Ibid.
39 Energy Information Administration, “International Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Imports and Exports,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gastrade.html.
40 International Energy Agency, “Natural Gas Market Review 2009,” 99.
41 Guy Chazan, “Shell Plans to Build Floating LNG Plant,” Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2009, B2.
42 Petrobras, press release, “Natural Gas Liquefaction Project in the Pre-Salt,” November 17, 2009.
43 Robert Campbell, “Natgas Giants Still Reeling from US Shale Shock,” Reuters, October 9, 2009, http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5983V020091009.
44 Oilshalegas.com, “The Montney Shale Play Formation,” n.d., http://oilshalegas.com/montneyshale.html.
45 For more, see Kitimat LNG website, http://www.kitimatlng.com.
46 Mark Williams, “US Drilling Methods Hot Item,” Associated Press, February 22, 2009, http://www.timesleader.com/news/hottopics/shale/U_S_drilling_methods_hot_item_02-22-2009.html.
47 Edward Klump, “StatoilHydro, Chesapeake Go Shale-Gas Shopping in Europe, Asia,” Bloomberg, May 21, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a6u2iGw6EJ7U.
48 Doris Leblond, “European Shale Gas Prospects Heat Up,” Oil & Gas Journal, May 29, 2009, http://www.petronaire.com/news/Exploration-Development/200905/1243662576971.html.
49 Clifford Krauss, “Gas Extraction Method Could Greatly Increase Global Supplies,” New York Times, October 10, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/business/energy-environment/10gas.html.
50 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.
51 Ibid.
52 Ibid.
53 Ibid.
54 Ibid.
55 Ibid.
56 Kenneth Deffeyes, “Join Us as We Watch the Crisis Unfolding,” January 16, 2004, http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events-04-01.html.
57 Henry Groppe, interview with author, March 2, 2009.
58 Steve Andrews, “Interview with Marshall Adkins,” Peak Oil Review, July 20, 2009, http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/07/interview-with-marshall-adkins/, 4.
59 Peter Wells, correspondence with author, Neftex Petroleum Consultants, July 17, 2009.
60 For more on Groppe, see the website for his firm, Groppe, Long, and Littell, http://www.groppelong.com/About/Biographies/biographies.htm.
61 Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum Navigator,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTUPUS2&f=A.
62 Exxon Mobil, “Energy Outlook 2008,” http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_2008_energyoutlook.pdf, 10.
63 Mark Long, “BP CEO Says US Gasoline Demand Peaked in 2007,” Dow Jones Newswires, November 19, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091119-718834.html.
64 Liam Denning, “Refining Business Enters the Twilight Zone,” Wall Street Journal , October 19, 2009, C10.
65 Matt Daily and Rebekah Kebede, “Valero Shuts Delaware Refinery, Takes Big Charge,” Reuters, November 20, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_3_MOLT/idUSTRE5AJ2RU20091120.
66 Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum Navigator,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttupus2a.htm.
67 Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook: Real Petroleum Prices,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/fsheets/real_prices.html.
68 The standard model for this type of work uses of the “Hubbert curve,” a model developed by M. King Hubbert, one of the originators of the peak-oil theory.
69 For more on Rutledge, see his website at http://www.its.caltech.edu/~mmic/people2/Rutledge.html.
70 Rutledge’s PowerPoint slides and supporting documents can be viewed on his website, http://rutledge.caltech.edu/.
71 David Rutledge, interview with author by phone, August 5, 2009.
72 Tad W. Patzek and Gregory D. Croft, “A Global Coal Production Forecast with Multi-Hubbert Cycle Analysis,” unpublished paper, accepted for publication by Energy Journal in late 2009, 14.
73 Ibid.
74 David Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” revised June 2009, http://www.its.caltech.edu/~rutledge/Hubbert’s%20Peak,%20The %20Coal%20Question,%20and%20Climate%20Change.ppt, 63.
75 Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto (New York: Viking, 2009), 26.
Chapter 22
1 Los Angeles Times, “Natural Gas: What to Do,” May 26, 1975.
2 See Robert Bryce, Pipe Dreams: Greed, Ego, and the Death of Enron (New York: PublicAffairs, 2002), 21–22.
3 David Prindle, Petroleum Politics and the Texas Railroad Commission (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1981), 55.
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid, 57.
6 Texas Railroad Commission, “History of the Railroad Commission,” http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/about/history/chronological/chronhistory02.php.
7 Prindle, Petroleum Politics, 58.
8 Energy Information Administration, Table 1.3, “Primary Energy Consumption by Source, 1949–2008,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0103.html.
9 Naturalgas.org, “The History of Regulation,” http://www.naturalgas.org/regulation/history.asp.
10 Monty Hoyt, “US Burning Its Way Toward Fuel Crisis,” Christian Science Monitor , June 2, 1971, 1.
11 Thomas O’Toole, “Price Curbs Helped Bring on Fuel Crisis,” Washington Post, January 13, 1973, A2.
12 S. David Freeman, “Weak on Energy ... ” Los Angeles Times, October 13, 1974, G1.
13 Los Angeles Times, “Natural Gas: What to Do,” May 26, 1975.
14 Steven Rattner, “Cold Wave Causes Energy Shortages and Plant Closings,” New York Times, January 18, 1977, 1.
15 Richard T. Cooper, “Carter Seeks Emergency Natural Gas Deregulation,” Los Angeles Times, January 26, 1977, B1.
16 Robert A. Hefner III, The GET: Grand Energy Transition (Oklahoma City: Hefner Foundation, 2008), 35.
17 Lawrence Goodwyn, Texas Oil, American Dreams: A Study of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (Austin: Texas State Historical Association, 1996), 141.
18 J. P. Smith, “Glut of Natural Gas in Texas Leads to Red Faces on the Hill,” Washington Post, March 3, 1978, A2.
19 Ruth Sheldon Knowles, “Price Controls on Natural Gas—Are They Helpful or Harmful?” Los Angeles Times, July 27, 1977.
20 Energy Information Administration, “Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/ngmajorleg/ngact1978.html.
21 Energy Information Administration, Table 2, “Supply and Disposition of Natural Gas in the United States, 1930–2000,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/historical_natural_gas_annual/current/pdf/table_02.pdf. For 1949 to 2008, see Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Natural Gas Total Consumption,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist_xls/N9140US2a.xls.
22 Energy Information Administration, “Repeal of the Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act (1987),” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/ngmajorleg/repeal.html.
23 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdf.
24 Nuclear Energy Insti
tute, “Resources and Stats: Generation Statistics,” http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/graphicsandcharts/generationstatistics/.
25 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008.
26 Robert L. Bradley Jr., Oil, Gas & Government: The US Experience, vol. 2 (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1996), 1267.
27 U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, “US Natural Gas Availability: Conventional Gas Supply Through the Year 2000—A Technical Memorandum,” Report OTA-TM-E-12, September 1983, http://www.fas.org/ota/reports/8326.pdf, 4.
28 Energy Information Administration, “Natural Gas Navigator,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2a.htm.
29 Office of Technology Assessment, “US Natural Gas Availability,” 3.
30 Hart Seely, “The Poetry of D. H. Rumsfeld,” Slate, April 2, 2003, www.slate.com/id/2081042/.
31 Hefner, The GET, 39–40.
32 Energy Information Administration, “World Proved Natural Gas Reserves, January 1, 1980–January 1, 2009 Estimates,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/naturalgasreserves.xls.
33 Ibid.
34 Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production,” n.d., http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm.
35 U.S. Department of Energy, “Marginal & Stripper Well Revitalization,” n.d., http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/marginalwells/index.html; Interstate Oil & Gas Compact Commission, “Marginal Wells: Fuel for Economic Growth,” 2008, http://iogcc.publishpath.com/Websites/iogcc/pdfs/2008-Marginal-Well-Report.pdf, 5.
36 Here’s the math: 60,000 cubic feet = 60,000,000 Btu = 60,000 MJ, and 60,000 MJ/86,400 = 694,444 W. Thus, 694,444 times 0.33 = 229,166 W, and 229,166 W / 746 W = 307 hp. Assuming a 2-acre well site: 307 / 2 = 153.5 hp per acre. For watts per square meter: 229,166 W / 2 = 114,583. Divide by 4,000 meters/acre, which equals 28.6 watts per square meter.
37 Here’s the math: 10 bbls = 58,000,000 Btu, and 58,000 MJ / 86,400 seconds = 671, 296 W. So, 671,296 times 0.33 = 221,152 W (221 kW), and 221,152 / 746 = 297 hp. Finally, 297 / 2 = 148.5 hp per acre. For watts per square meter, the math would be 221,152 / 2 = 110,576. Divide that by 4,000 meters per acre, which equals 27.6 watts per square meter.