“What country might be next? Poland?”
“Too large, too visible.”
“Bulgaria?”
“Perhaps.”
“The rest of Ukraine,” Reilly suggested.
“Certainly possible. Very possible, but try again.”
Reilly pictured the map. “Romania?”
“Also vulnerable. We should be supporting Bucharest far more than we have. But too many people in the administration who know nothing claim that Gorshkov is merely posturing for the cameras. In my mind, anyone who believes that is a fool.”
Romania. Reilly focused again on the singer in the Tokyo attack. Kretsky, the Romanian separatist.
“Gorshkov sees all of this as yet more evidence that the West is attempting to economically and politically limit the new Russia, and that brings us back to your initial question. Is Russia capable of terrorism? Is it a state capable of terrorism? The answer is possibly—as a means to an end, considering they truly view NATO as threat.”
Colonel Harrison gave Reilly a further history lesson. Some he knew from the news. The rest was eye-opening.
“Let’s go back to the period immediately following the fall of the Berlin Wall. Order throughout Europe depended on whether the reunified Germany would be in the pocket of the West or the East. NATO or the Soviet’s Warsaw Pact nation. The former head of the CIA made the decision which way it would go.”
“President Bush?” Reilly interjected.
“Well, the first one. In February 1990 the US, through Secretary of State James Baker, gave Moscow, and now I quote, ‘an iron-clad guarantee that in exchange for cooperation on Germany, NATO would not expand one inch eastward.’ End quote. Within the week, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev accepted the terms. Germany would align with NATO. Later that month, Bush and his policymakers secretly reconsidered what they had given up: the possibility of NATO claiming ground in Eastern Europe.”
“A double cross.”
“Call it a change of heart,” Harrison laughed. “By October the State Department signaled ‘the new democracies of Europe,’ and I’m quoting again, this time from a National Security memo, ‘NATO’s readiness to contemplate their future membership.’ And along came Poland, Hungary, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and others. Yeltsin and even Gorbachev were infuriated. They screamed bloody murder through public and private channels and feared that NATO would press further east to Ukraine and Georgia.”
“Which brings us to Nikolai Gorshkov decades later,” Reilly exclaimed.
“Precisely. Everything validated his basic belief. The West, and the United States in particular, was determined to dominate Europe.”
“So now he’s ready to make strategic moves.”
“Wouldn’t we?”
“What can he do,” Reilly asked, “either legally or … ?”
“Law is not rule of war. Look at recent events and at history,” the old professor replied. “Russia has carried out small-time killings and mass murder, incursions and invasions with little in the way of international reaction beyond tongue lashings. Gorshkov, like his forerunners, has boasted he could be in downtown Kiev in two days if he wanted, or if provoked. With a similar time frame he could take Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw, and Bucharest. Two days, mind you.
“Actually Daniel, I see him employing more of a hybrid approach to warfare. Daring military strikes intended to surprise, combined with infiltrating countries through political means.”
“Which is why the Baltic States are important.”
Harrison congratulated Reilly. “Definitely. Good student. Gorshkov constantly throws opponents off, wearing them down and confusing them. He’s demonstrated his willingness to use force and deploy troops or mercenaries with little notice.”
They crossed Harvard Square and soon turned right onto Brattle. Harvest was still a block ahead.
“Colonel, what do you think would happen if Gorshkov does make a move?”
Harrison’s eyes narrowed. “He wins. Because he can. Gorshkov and his fellow KGB henchmen emerged from the Cold War as losers. Not that they personally were, but their government lost. That fact alone makes his Russia even harder to deal with than the Soviet Union. During the worst of it, the West was still able to have substantive and pragmatic negotiations with the Kremlin on issues ranging from conventional arms to nuclear stockpiles. Not so today.”
“Would anyone in the region defend themselves?” Reilly asked.
“Would or could? It’s a complicated question. Not long ago, the Belarus president proclaimed that no matter who threatened Belarus, they would fight back. But could they really stand up to Gorshkov for long? I doubt it.”
“And the US?”
“I’ll rely on what Zbigniew Brzezinski said regarding Russia, pre-and post-Cold War. As you well know, Brzezinski was a Lyndon Johnson counselor, national security advisor to Carter, and foreign policy advisor to Obama. He warned that unless the US supplies weapons and troops to the nations Russia seeks to control, Moscow will invade. I’ll say it again. Moscow will invade. Crimea proved Russia’s intensions. If we consider that a preview, what does the future hold?”
Reilly took it all in.
“And Brzezinski didn’t believe it would take two days for Russia to seize Kiev or other former Eastern bloc capitals. Not two,” the colonel emphasized. “Just one. And why? History. The Russian Federation watched the West fail to respond to their invasion of Georgia. And we did nothing after the downing of the Malaysia triple seven over Ukraine. Downed from a missile certain to have been fired by Russian separatists, or …” He let the last notion linger.
“So without the United States or NATO answering Kremlin aggression, what’s Gorshkov left to think?” Harrison rhetorically asked.
“He has every incentive to act.”
“Correct. We’re not prepared to storm ashore in the Baltic or the Balkans like Normandy. Or march across Germany to regain ground in Poland, Hungary, or Romania. And we’re not going to be willing to start a nuclear war in defense of those nations. The only way to avoid the former Soviet states falling into Gorshkov’s hands is to send in troops and weapons early as a deterrence. And we may have missed that deadline.”
Harrison was painting a bleak picture. They stopped at the front door of Harvest.
“Look, Daniel. Russia constantly overflies NATO states borders. NATO is averaging more than 400 intercepts of Russian aircraft a year now, with 150 incidents over Latvia alone. Hell, a few years ago, two Russian strategic bombers flew right down the English Channel. Why?”
“To prod, to test. To taunt.”
“Exactly.”
“Would Gorshkov ever stage an act of terrorism?”
Colonel Harrison was thrown by the question.
“For what purpose?” Harrison asked.
“To create a provocation. A reason to act.”
They were at the front door of the restaurant now. Harrison stopped and faced his former student.
“There was, of course, the Cuban Missile Crisis. But then Soviet leaders answered to the Politburo. Today, every decision, including the use of nuclear weapons, will be Gorshkov’s, with the blessing of the Russian people.”
“That’s not quite where I’m going. The missiles in Cuba demonstrated Russia’s influence, but it wasn’t intended as a provocation. I’ve got something more specific in mind. Something on our balance sheet—the Gulf of Tonkin.”
The history professor frowned. Reilly had made a point that even Colonel William E. Harrison, United States Army retired, could not deny.
They entered the restaurant, Reilly and the colonel sequestered themselves in a back corner, Reilly taking the out-facing chair. More than ever he wanted to have a good view of everyone coming and going.
The only interruption came when it was time to order. Reilly held up two fingers to get the attention of the waiter. Colonel Harrison ordered his seasonal favorite, Maryland striped bass and a mushroom pasta. To make it easy, Reilly had the same.
“Did you realize that Russia has more nuclear weapons today than in the Soviet era?” Harrison asked.
“No way. I thought—”
“You thought wrong. Try around 2,000 operational battlefield nukes, thousands of more in storage, and 1,700 deliverable nuclear warheads able to reach us right here at this table. Though it’d be a waste of a great restaurant,” the colonel joked. “It’s all so unstable, and aside from the typical hawk/dove rants, it hardly causes a blip on the national consciousness. Yet Russia is a true threat if we’re so foolish as to take the bait. In truth, as I suggested, we helped regenerate this angry Russian bear.”
“Explain?” Reilly prompted.
“Ah, not so fast. You travel everywhere. What’s your worldview?”
“Always the student?”
“You better be. There’s always more to learn,” Harrison declared.
“I’ve seen tensions grow over the past fifteen or twenty years,” Reilly enumerated. “The US and our European allies built a post-Cold War security zone with NATO’s expansion. Nation by nation, Russia saw its own sphere of influence diminished. This created an unstable balance of power along Russia’s western borders.”
“Correct and as I’ve covered, that put the Russian Federation in the sights of NATO guns. The situation worsened coming out of the Bucharest summit in 2008. Russia felt more cornered when Bush Two pressed for Ukraine and Georgia’s membership. A nail in the coffin, if you will. In response, we saw the Russo-Georgian War, which was the Kremlin’s response to NATO expansionism. So consider everything from Russia’s point of view.”
Reilly realized he knew far too little about Gorshkov’s psychological makeup, which was key to understanding what moves he would make. He made a mental note to learn more about the man he met just days ago.
“It was risky for NATO to sign up those former Soviet nations that border Russia,” the historian continued. “It was particularly risky when NATO accepted Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and put them under NATO’s Article 5 that requires all NATO-member states come to the defense of others if attacked. Would we do such a thing if Russia moved against those countries?”
“Doubtful,” Reilly replied.
“Damn straight. What about for Poland, Romania, or Hungary?” Harrison continued.
“I just don’t know.”
“Well, I’ll tell you. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs did a survey to gauge public support for the use of force in response to Russia’s move into Ukraine. Any idea the level of backing?”
“A guess,” Reilly said with his concern about Kiev growing. “Low.”
“It was 42–44 percent. Less if Russia were to mount an invasion on the Baltic States. Truth be told, I cannot envision an American president on either side of the aisle who would be willing to go to war with a nuclear-ready Russia over any of those countries, especially when member states are spending less than 2 percent of their GDP on defense. But still, we pose a threat to another threat-maker. NATO has rotating ground forces in Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, and those three little countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. You tell me how pissed that makes Gorshkov.”
“Very pissed.”
“There’s more that you won’t find on the front pages. The army has pre-positioned limited armored vehicles and troops from the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division out of Fort Hood, Texas, to the United States European Command.”
“Very, very pissed.”
“You bet.”
Dinner came, and with it one last question from Colonel Harrison for his former student.
“And what does a very, very pissed cornered bear do?”
“Rise up and defend itself.”
45
CHICAGO, IL
REILLY’S OFFICE
Reilly caught the 9:00 a.m. American Airlines flight from Boston to Chicago. It beat the projected two hours and forty minutes by fifteen and got him to his last security committee meeting only a few minutes late.
The team had copies of the color code system and a prioritized list of cities to rank in potential danger zones.
Reilly excused himself for being late. He took his seat and listened. They were discussing the likely pushback to the costs from regional management and franchise managers. Donald Klugo, the private security consultant, engaged CFO Brodowski in the debate.
“You have car insurance?” he curtly asked.
“Of course.”
“Homeowners?”
“Yes.” She didn’t like being cross-examined, especially by a mercenary. Her answers were getting as brusque as his questions.
“Life insurance?”
“Yes, damn it. What’s your point?”
“Well, your company needs terrorism insurance. Not the kind we collect on if something happens. It’s the upfront money it will take to help prevent attacks.”
“None of it’s in our fiscal year budget.”
Klugo slammed his fist on the conference table. “Well find it then. Because the bad guys are sure out there spending their money to bring down your buildings and thinking about ways to kill people while you’re sleeping in your comfortable lakeside bed.”
Brodowski was aghast and visibly violated. “I never told you where I …”
“Don’t worry. I’m just making a point. If I can find out where you live, there’s no limit to what the bad guys can do to your company.”
She exhaled, getting the message loud and clear.
“Okay,” Reilly said with his palms down, trying to restore calm. “The money’s not currently allocated. So yes, we need to create the funding.” He glanced over to the KR COO who nodded to Reilly.
“Pat, send me your projections,” Lou Tiano said. “We’ll create the line items.”
“Projections, line items? You think the enemy is talking this nonsense?” Klugo interrupted dismissively. “Open your goddamned checkbook and make sure you have a lot of zeroes at the end of the figure.”
“Mr. Klugo,” Tiano stated. “We are committed. But I would appreciate it if you brought the tone down.”
The COO’s comment ended the exchange. “The real problem,” Tiano honestly admitted, “will be getting our managers comfortable with the decision-making process.”
“Oh God!” Reilly exclaimed as he wrote two letters on his pad.
“Is there a problem?” Klugo asked.
“No. Well, yes,” Reilly said correcting himself as he circled US. “Right here. Typically American owners and operators are even more complacent than those abroad.”
“Well then I’d say you better bring in another few chairs,” Klugo declared.
Tiano nodded agreement. Reilly texted Shaw.
“And to the larger point,” former CIA director Carl Erwin added. “You’ll have to audit your properties.”
“What do you mean?” June Wilson asked.
“Surprise visits to make sure they’re in compliance. Believe me, you can’t trust an email missive to guarantee success.”
“My God!” Chris Collins exclaimed. “We turn our friends and employees into our enemies?”
“No,” General Coons said, joining the discussion for the first time that day. “You make them responsible partners.”
“And if they disagree?” the lawyer asked.
“Fail once, they’re warned. Fail twice, they’re gone. This is not a game. You don’t have the luxury of being polite. Lives are at stake.”
The heated exchange was an inevitable part of the process, particularly on this last day. Reilly’s plan needed teeth. He was about to offer a thought when Brenda Sheldon unceremoniously interrupted the meeting and waved for him to come out.
Reilly shot an inquisitive look.
She mouthed the words. “Phone call. Important.”
“Get me Boyce,” Reilly said as he returned to his office and closed the door. Seconds later Sheldon rang him through.
“How’d you know?” Spike Boyce asked.
“Know what?”
&n
bsp; “That we’d be getting a whole helluva lot more knocks,” he lowered his voice. “Knocks at our back door.”
“Hacks?”
“Attempts. Thwarted, but the number’s gone up exponentially.”
“With any success, Spike?”
“So far, no,” the IT executive offered.
“Oh man. Will they get through?”
“Might help if I knew who ‘they’ were.”
“For now, keep it at ‘they.’”
“All right. How technical do you want me to get?”
“So I can understand with the fewest questions,” Reilly replied.
“Okay, one level up from the basics. Because we have transitional sites and online reservations, we have a door that assholes from around the world with sophisticated software try to wedge open. In computer terms, it’s buffer overflow. The hacker uses our online interrogatives, the form fields, as entry points. Take a zip code line for example. The field is programmed to expect five to nine characters, but a sharp hacker can use a complex code that provides an alternate way in. Any idea how many times a day people try to fuck us up?” he asked.
“Can’t imagine.”
“Try.”
“A hundred,” Reilly ventured, thinking it was a high guess.
“Think bigger.”
“Shit. Five hundred?”
RED Hotel Page 24