Yee thought about that for a moment.
“You have not acknowledged the reminder.” The simulated voice was implacable.
“I acknowledge it.”
“I served on Myosotis myself, two hundred twenty-four Earth years ago, long before humans knew of the Coalition of Planets. I know the Myosotians well. I know how this will change them.” The black tube waggled. “It's about time, isn't it? And don't forget to let the Myosotians use the phone for twelve point four minutes.”
Copyright (c) 2008 Tracy Canfield
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* * *
Reader's Department: THE ALTERNATE VIEW: TRACKING ADOLPH
by John G. Cramer
I have German, Norwegian, and Irish ancestors. The family name Cramer is probably derived from the old German word “kramm,” denoting a small shop, so perhaps my Cramer ancestors were shopkeepers. Not much is known about my great-grandfather, Adolf Cramer. He was born somewhere in Prussia about 1836. Somehow, he made his way to Houston, Texas, where he married a fairly well-off widow, my great-grandmother Sarah, in 1863. They appear in the 1870 census with two sons, one of which was my grandfather Louis (who later appropriately became a grocery store owner). By the 1880 census Sarah was listed as a widow, and she subsequently remarried.
Even in these days of extensive genealogical internet databases, without knowing where Adolf was born or who his parents were, we have been unable to find him in any records before his appearance in Houston. He may appear in some German records, boat passenger lists, US Immigration records, or burial records, but with only the available information, we have hit the wall in finding him. However, there is still a way of tracking him someday, because I am in possession of Adolf's y chromosome. Let me explain.
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Envision the family tree diagram of your ancestors, arranged with the parent couples of each generation on a line, parents above and children below, with the male of each parental couple on the left. This family tree forms a funnel shaped distribution that doubles in size with each preceding generation. The genetic inheritance implied by the diagram is very complex, because each individual on the chart inherited some genes and chromosomes from his father and some from his mother on the line above.
However, at the right and left edges of this family tree diagram, things are much simpler because these edges represent the succession of male ancestors that led to your father and of female ancestors that led to your mother. On the left edge of the diagram, the male of each generation has inherited the y chromosome of his father. On the right edge of the diagram, the female of each generation has inherited the mitochondrial DNA of her mother. To understand this, let's review some basic genetics.
In the nucleus of each cell, everyone has 46 chromosomes, little spools of DNA that form a genetic library encoded in “base-pairs” that constitute the four-letter language (A, C, G, T) of genetics. The “sentences” of this language are genes, which are step-by-step procedures for constructing the proteins than make up our bodies.
Of the 46 human chromosomes, 44 of them come in two 22-chromosome sets, one set from each parent. This deck of “alleles” is shuffled and often cross-mixed in every generation. The other two chromosomes are the sex chromosomes, called x and y. The x chromosome has about 153 million base pairs encoding about 1000 working genes. The smaller y chromosome has only about 60 million base pairs encoding about 85 working genes.
Females have two x chromosomes, one received from their father and the other from their mother. Males have an x chromosome from their mother and a y chromosome from their father. Thus, along the left edge of the family tree diagram described above, the y chromosome is passed down, relatively unchanged, from father to son in each generation in a linked patrilineal chain. Therefore, in principle, I have the same y chromosome as all of my male Cramer-surname ancestors including Adolf, extending back up the time stream for very many generations.
In a similar way, along the right edge of the family tree, mitochondrial DNA is passed down, relatively unchanged, from mother to daughter in each generation to form a linked matrilineal chain. Let me explain mitochondria a bit. Outside the nucleus of every human cell, residing in the surrounding plasma, there are a large number (100 to 10,000) of small bacteria-like organelles called mitochondria. They are associated with energy production and protein synthesis in the cell. Inside each mitochondrion are several copies of their basic DNA structure, small rings of DNA with about 16,568 base pairs encoding 37 working genes.
During human reproduction a fertilized cell (whether male or female) receives a few (perhaps two to ten) mitochondria from the egg of its mother, but it receives no mitochondria from the sperm of its father. Thus, mitochondrial DNA is passed from mother to children in every generation, with the daughters forming in a linked matrilineal chain. Therefore, in principle I have the same mitochondrial DNA as my mother, her mother, her mother, etc., also extending back up the time stream for very many generations.
In other words, Nature has provided us with ways of tracking both of the outside edges of our family tree, along the patrilineal line of y chromosomes and along the matrilineal line of mitochondrial DNA, extending all the way back up the time stream to some y-chromosomal Adam and mitochondrial Eve that came down from the trees somewhere in Africa a couple of million years ago.
Actually, this view of an unchanging genetic structure is bit naive, because in each generation there is a certain probability that mutations will occur in the y and mitochondrial DNA. In fact, the mutation probability in certain DNA regions can act as a kind of “clock” that permits estimates of how many generations separate gene lines with similar but not identical genetic structures.
* * * *
Now getting back to tracking Adolf, the cost of DNA analysis has been falling in recent times (but it's still not cheap). Further, the human genome is huge, and to track a relative using DNA, it is necessary to focus on specific parts of the genome that can be compared with those of possible relatives.
Fortunately, geneticists have worked out a way of doing this. As I indicated above, the y chromosome contains 85 working genes, and any mutations in these genes might have disastrous consequences, in the form of a genetic disease. However, the y chromosome also contains fairly large regions of non-coding “junk” DNA that serve no known purpose, contain nonsense sequences that repeat many times, and show fairly high mutation rates in which the number of repeats of the sequence changes. This is perhaps because the DNA replication mechanism can become confused by repeating patterns.
The workers in the field of population genetics have developed a set of genetic “markers,” junk DNA regions of the y chromosome in which the repeat count has sufficient variability to distinguish the gene lines of male individuals with some reliability. There are now a number of commercial firms that will, for a hundred dollars or so, analyze a sample of your DNA taken from a cheek swab and provide a set of numbers for the y chromosome representing the number of repeats in a set of markers. (They will also analyze your mitochondrial DNA, but that's another story.). The y-chromosome analysis represents a genetic “fingerprint” or haplotype that you share with your ancestors, but that may be very different from one family group to another. I have tracked six of my eight great-grandparents using this technology by arranging for the y and mitochondrial DNA analysis of myself and several of my cousins. On the y-chromosome side, I had 46-marker analyses done for myself and two cousins, producing fairly specific high-resolution haplotypes for each of us. (I'd also like to find a Gleason and St. John related cousin, perhaps in New Orleans or Ireland, to investigate the Irish side of my great-grandparent set, but I haven't done this yet.)
Population geneticists have divided the genetic landscape of y and mitochondrial marker patterns into “haplogroups,” ensembles of related individuals that share a similar pattern of markers. For example, the majority of individuals of European origin are most likely to fall into y haplogroup R, which is associated with
a mutation called M207 that occurred around 26,800 years ago, as our ancestors were resettling Europe and Western Asia following the last glacial maximum. At least two of my great-grandfathers have y chromosomes that fall into haplogroup R, consistent with their German origins. The exception is my y chromosome and that of great-grandfather Adolf, which is rather different. Our y-haplogroup is G (or more specifically haplogroup G2c, formerly called G5). This is a fairly rare marker pattern.
Haplogroup G (defined by mutation M201) branched off from haplogroup F (mutation M89) thousands of years ago. It is believed to have originated in the Near East or Southern Asia, probably in the region that is now northern India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Haplogroup G spread with the Neolithic Agricultural Revolution, perhaps with the appearance of the early horse nomads of the Eurasian steppe.
According to an article in Wikipedia, the sub-haplogroup G2c (defined by mutation M377) presents more mysteries regarding its origin and distribution than virtually any other major y haplogroup. Haplogroups that are rare in certain regions are usually more common in another and have rather clear origins in other places where they are more commonly found. G2c does not follow this pattern. It is most common by far in a region where its carriers arrived very recently, and is exceedingly rare in other regions, including its likely area of origin. The distribution of G2c is incredibly sparse and dispersed, with almost no G2c haplotypes found in very large intervening regions. This pattern is unique among y haplogroups.
Haplogroup G2c is rather specific to a single ethnic group in Europe, the Ashkenazi Jews, who settled in genealogically recent times in the German and Polish regions of Europe. Otherwise, the G2c pattern has been found in only four individuals, a Turk from Kars Province in Turkey, an Uzbek from Uzbekistan, a Pashtun from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in the Hindu Kush range, and a Burusho from the Hunza Valley in the Karakorum Range in Kashmir.
So Adolf was probably descended from the Ashkenazi Jews of Germany or Poland. That's interesting, because there have been no practicing Jews in my family in the twentieth century, and my father, a Houston attorney, had an Irish Catholic mother but was raised as a Southern Baptist. In searching the various genetic databases for a match to the markers of my y chromosome, I have found only one perfect fit, that of a person whose ancestors came from a village north of Warsaw in Poland. Since that part of Poland was North East Prussia during the nineteenth century, perhaps Adolf came from around there too, although neither his first nor his last name fits the Polish profile.
In any case, because of the recent technological advances in DNA analysis, the field of genetic genealogy is presently growing explosively, with more and more genetic databases becoming available and expanding. My tracking of Adolf is not finished. I hope that in a few years the volume of data will grow to the point where I can find more G2c matches that fit his and my haplotype. It's almost as good as visiting Adolf with a time machine.
Copyright (c) John G. Cramer
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References:
Haplogroups:
Haplogroups, Wikipedia: en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplogroups
Haplogroup G, Wikipedia: en. wikipedia.org/wiki/HaplogroupG(Y-DNA)
Haplogroup G2c, Wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaplogroupG2c(Y-DNA)
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Y-DNA Analysis:
Y-DNA Testing Comparison Chart: www.isogg.org/ydnachart.htm
Ancestry.com: dna.ancestry. com/welcome.aspx
Sorenson Molecular Genealogy Foundation: www.smgf.org
Family Tree DNA: www.familytreedna.com
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* * *
Probability Zero: WHERE CREDIT IS DUE
by Edward M. Lerner
* * * *
“Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say, ‘On the one hand ... on the other.'”
—Harry S. Truman
* * * *
Winslow Justinian Prescott waited outside the packed pressroom. The cacophony within was extraordinary, the White House correspondents variously suspicious, curious, and baffled. They knew something momentous was afoot. He had not held a press conference for months.
Prescott adjusted his tie, flicked a bit of lint from the lapel of his suit, and stepped inside.
“The President of the United States,” a booming voice intoned.
The noise stopped as if a switch had been thrown. Few of these correspondents liked him. Some didn't even respect him—but by God, they all respected the office. He had the best job in the world, and he meant to keep it. After his announcement—all the more dramatic as an October timeout from the campaign trail—reelection was in the bag.
Prescott stepped behind the podium bearing the presidential seal. “I have a statement, and then I'll take questions.”
Text appeared on the teleprompter. “Ours is a vibrant and sophisticated economy, powered by 350 million complicated people. And America is a cog in the larger world economy, driven by eight billion people.” Subtext: The recession is no one's fault. “It's not surprising the economy sometimes performs less well than we would hope. The wonder is that anyone dares try to guide it.”
Before him, styli scribbled, cameras stared, and solid-state recorders did—well, nothing discernable. He kept reading. “1776 will ever be associated, and rightly so, with America's declaration of independence, but a second revolution also began that year.” In the holo display beside the podium, a stolid and bewigged figure appeared. “In March of 1776, Adam Smith, the father of modern economics, published this book.”
A leather-bound volume, its title emblazoned in gold leaf, replaced Smith. AnInquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
Reporters squirmed.
He'd told the speechwriters to cut the history lesson. He was the president, not class know-it-all. “Many economists followed Smith. They found things to agree upon—and more not to.”
Grins throughout the crowd. Politicians, lawyers, and economists ... no one objected to a potshot taken at any of them.
“They weren't entirely wrong.” A few chuckles. “Every one was right—about some of us, some of the time. What have economists asserted? People make rational decisions.” His raised eyebrow drew another laugh. “People value money above all else.” If that were true anywhere, DC wasn't the place. Here the pursuit of wealth ranked a distant second to the quest for power. “Taxes are too high and too low.”
The squirming had stopped. He had them in the palm of his hand.
“No psychologist would claim people are always rational. She'd be out of business.” Laughter. He skipped a riff about sociologists. Always leave your audience wanting more.
“It's no one's fault. It's hard to know even our own minds. We wonder what our significant other or child or neighbor might do minutes from now, yet we expect economists"—and politicians—"to predict how we'll all act and react for years to come.”
Harry Truman, prepare to stand corrected. The buck won't stop here.
In Prescott's mind's ear: a theatrical drum roll. “People are rational and rationalizing, methodical and impulsive, principled and expedient, wise and whimsical, self-interested and selfless. People are ... human.”
Fast-forward through economists claiming mercantilism, whatever that was, and capitalism, and socialism, and communism were the way to go. Past supply side and demand side, past voodoo economics and the Gross National Happiness. “Our economy became too complex for any of us to comprehend. But this administration has the solution.”
That made everyone sit straighter.
“Greedy or generous, rich or poor, playing now or saving for later ... who can calculate all the possibilities? Economics is a job for someone who can understand it all. All our needs, all our moods, all our aspirations—all together, all the time. Economics is a discipline grown too large for the human mind to grasp. It's become a task for an artificial intelligence.”
“My experts assure me...” Like all experts, they assured him of nothing.
Every remark sagged beneath the weight of caveats. They whined about more supercomputers. Extra data storage. Additional statistics as inputs. Above all, they wanted yet more testing.
If technology was the solution, then past techie dawdling was the problem, and he needed to take credit now, not after the election.
Well, the presidency had its perks. Few dare say no to you; fewer could make it stick. Certainly very few civil-service scientists and programmers.
Prescott skipped to the end of his prepared statement. The ancient tome shimmered and was gone. A virtual desktop took its place. “It's time to introduce the father of a new era in economics.” Delivered by the leader to whose stewardship your readers and listeners and viewers will entrust the next four years. “I give you ... the economist who thinks like us all.”
He rolled the podium trackball over an unlabeled icon and clicked.
Laughter erupted—but this time they weren't laughing with him.
Something moved in his peripheral vision. Prescott turned toward the scrolling words.
You have reached the computing array of AIdam Smith. I am taking a sick day. Please leave a message.
The shouted questions began....
Copyright (c) 2008 Edward M. Lerner
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* * *
Short Story: VITA LONGA
by Carl Frederick
Plus ca change....
As she meandered through the Contemporary American Artists Gallery of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, Gale stopped to stare at a wall—where a painting could have been hung, but wasn't. Dreamily, she fantasized stepping out of a stasis booth some hundred years from now and seeing one of her works on that unadorned expanse of wall:
Warm Earth
Gale Edgewater
(United States, mid 21st century)
Analog SFF, October 2008 Page 13