by Ray Kurzweil
The majority of communication does not involve a human. The majority of communication involving a human is between a human and a machine.
Business and Economics
The human population has leveled off in size at around 12 billion real persons. The basic necessities of food, shelter, and security are available for the vast majority of the human population.
Human and nonhuman intelligences are primarily focused on the creation of knowledge in its myriad forms, and there is significant struggle over intellectual property rights, including ever increasing levels of litigation.
There is almost no human employment in production, agriculture, and transportation. The largest profession is education. There are many more lawyers than doctors.
Politics and Society
Computers appear to be passing forms of the Turing Test deemed valid by both human and nonhuman authorities, although controversy on this point persists. It is difficult to cite human capabilities of which machines are incapable. Unlike human competence, which varies greatly from person to person, computers consistently perform at optimal levels and are able to readily share their skills and knowledge, with one another.
A sharp division no longer exists between the human world and the machine world. Human cognition is being ported to machines, and many machines have personalities, skills, and knowledge bases derived from the reverse engineering of human intelligence. Conversely, neural implants based on machine intelligence are providing enhanced perceptual and cognitive functioning to humans. Defining what constitutes a human being is emerging as a significant legal and political issue.
The rapidly growing capability of machines is controversial, but there is no effective resistance to it. Since machine intelligence was initially designed to be subservient to human control, it has not presented a threatening “face” to the human population. Humans realize that disengaging the now human-machine civilization from its dependence on machine intelligence is not possible.
Discussion of the legal rights of machines is growing, particularly those of machines that are independent of humans (those not embedded in a human brain). Although not yet fully recognized by law, the pervasive influence of machines in all levels of decision making is providing significant protection to machines.
The Arts
Cybernetic artists in all of the arts—musical, visual, literary, virtual experience, and all others—no longer need to associate themselves with humans or organizations that include humans. Many of the leading artists are machines.
Health and Medicine
Progress continues in understanding and ameliorating the effects of aging as a result of a thorough understanding of the information-processing processes controlled through the genetic code. The life expectancy of humans continues to increase and is now around 120 years. Significant attention is being paid to the psychological ramifications of a substantially increased human life span.
There is growing recognition that continuing extensions to the human life span will involve further use of bionic organs, including portions of the brain. Nanobots are being used as scouts, to a limited extent as repair agents in the bloodstream, and as building blocks for bionic organs.
Philosophy
Although computers routinely pass apparently valid forms of the Turing Test, controversy persists about whether or not machine intelligence equals human intelligence in all of its diversity. At the same time, it is clear that there are many ways in which machine intelligence is vastly superior to human intelligence. For reasons of political sensitivity, machine intelligences generally do not press the point of their superiority The distinction between human and machine intelligence is blurring as machine intelligence is increasingly derived from the design of human intelligence, and human intelligence is increasingly enhanced by machine intelligence.
The subjective experience of machine intelligence is increasingly accepted, particularly since “machines” participate in this discussion.
Machines claim to be conscious and to have as wide an array of emotional and spiritual experiences as their human progenitors, and these claims are largely accepted.
I HOPE YOU’RE HAVING A GOOD TIME MAKING ALL THESE PREDICTIONS.
This part of the book is a bit more fun to write—at least there are fewer references to look up. And I don’t have to worry about being embarrassed for at least a few decades.
WELL, IT MIGHT BE EASIER IF YOU JUST ASKED ME FOR MY IMPRESSIONS.
Yes, I was just getting to that. But I must say, you look very well.
FOR AN OLD LADY.
I wasn’t thinking old. But you don’t look anywhere near fifty More like thirty-five.
YES, WELL, FIFTY ISN’T AS OLD AS IT USED TO BE.
We feel that way in 1999, too.
IT’S STILL HELPFUL TO EAT RIGHT. WE ALSO HAVE A FEW TRICKS YOU DIDN’T HAVE.2
Nanoengineered bodies?
NO, NOT EXACTLY, NANOTECHNOLOGY IS STILL FAIRLY LIMITED. BIOENGINEERING HAS CERTAINLY HELPED THE MOST. AGING HAS BEEN DRAMATICALLY SLOWED. MOST DISEASES CAN BE PREVENTED OR REVERSED.
So nanotechnology is still fairly primitive?
I’D SAY SO. I MEAN, WE DO HAVE NANOBOTS IN OUR BLOODSTREAMS, BUT THEY’RE PRIMARILY DIAGNOSTIC. SO IF ANYTHING STARTS TO GO WRONG, WE CATCH IT VERY EARLY.
So if a nanobot discovers a microscopic infection or other problem developing, what does it do, just start yelling?
YEAH, THAT’S ABOUT IT. I DON’T THINK WE’D TRUST IT TO DO MUCH ELSE. IT YELLS TO THE WEB, AND THEN THE PROBLEM GETS TAKEN CARE OF WHEN WE SIT DOWN FOR OUR NEXT DAILY SCAN.
A three-dimensional scan?
OF COURSE, WE STILL HAVE THREE-DIMENSIONAL BODIES.
This is a diagnostic scan?
THE SCAN HAS A DIAGNOSTIC FUNCTION. BUT IT’S ALSO REMEDIAL. THE SCANNER CAN APPLY SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO A SMALL THREE-DIMENSIONAL SET OF POINTS TO DESTROY A COLONY OF PATHOGENS OR PROBLEMATICAL CELLS BEFORE THEY GET OUT OF HAND.
Is this an electromagnetic energy beam, or a particle beam, or what?
WELL, GEORGE CAN EXPLAIN IT BETTER THAN I CAN. As I UNDERSTAND IT, IT HAS TWO ENERGY BEAMS THAT ARE BENIGN BY THEMSELVES, BUT CAUSE PARTICLE EMISSIONS AT THE POINT AT WHICH THEY CROSS. I’LL ASK GEORGE NEXT TIME I SEE HIM.
When’s that going to be?
OH, JUST AS SOON AS I GET DONE WITH YOU.
You’re not rushing me, are you?
OH, THERE’S NO HURRY. IT’S ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA TO BE PATIENT.
Hmmm. So when was the last time the two of you were together?
A FEW MINUTES AGO.
I see. Sounds like your relationship has developed.
OH, IT HAS. HE TAKES VERY GOOD CARE OF ME.
Last time we talked, you weren’t sure whether he had any feelings.
THAT WAS A LONG TIME AGO. GEORGE IS A DIFFERENT PERSON EVERY DAY. HE JUST GROWS AND LEARNS CONSTANTLY. HE DOWNLOADS WHATEVER KNOWLEDGE HE WANTS FROM THE WEB AND IT BECOMES PART OF HIM. HE’S SO SMART AND INTENSE, AND VERY SPIRITUAL.
I’m awfully happy for you. But how does Ben feel about you and George?
HE WASN’T TOO CRAZY ABOUT IT, THAT’S FOR SURE.
But you’ve worked it out?
WE’VE WORKED IT OUT, ALL RIGHT. WE BROKE UP THREE YEARS AGO.
I’m sorry to hear that.
YEAH, WELL, SEVENTEEN YEARS IS DEFINITELY ABOVE AVERAGE, AS MARRIAGES GO THESE DAYS.
It must have been hard on the kids.
THAT’S TRUE. BUT WE BOTH HAVE DINNER WITH EMILY JUST ABOUT EVERY NIGHT.
You both have dinner with Emily, but not with each other?
EMILY CERTAINLY DOESN’T WANT TO HAVE DINNER WITH US TOGETHER—THAT WOULDN’T BE VERY COMFORTABLE, NOW WOULD IT? SO SHE HAS DINNER WITH US APART.
I see, the good old kitchen table. Now that you don’t have to deal with Harry Hippo or Miss Simon, there’s room for you and Ben and Emily, but you and Ben don’t have to actually see each other.
ISN’T VIRTUAL REALITY GREAT?
Yeah, but too bad
people can’t touch each other without going into the Sensorium.
ACTUALLY, SENSORIUM WENT OUT OF BUSINESS.
Okay, then, total touch.
WE DON’T NEED TO GO INTO A TOTAL TOUCH ENVIRONMENT ANYMORE, NOT SINCE THE SPINAL IMPLANTS BECAME AVAILABLE.
So these implants add the tactile environment ...
TO THE UBIQUITOUS VISUAL AND AUDITORY ENVIRONMENTS WE’VE HAD FOR MANY YEARS WITH VIRTUAL REALITY; THAT’S RIGHT.
Sounds like the implants must be pretty popular.
No, THEY’RE FAIRLY NEW ALMOST EVERYONE HAS THE VISUAL AND AUDITORY ENVIRON-MENTS NOW, EITHER AS IMPLANTS OR AT LEAST AS VISUAL AND SONIC LENSES. BUT THE TACTILE IMPLANTS HAVEN’T QUITE CAUGHT ON YET.
Yet you have them?
YEAH, THEY’RE REALLY FABULOUS. THERE ARE A FEW GLITCHES, BUT I LIKE BEING ON THE CUTTING EDGE. IT WAS SUCH A HASSLE HAVING TO USE A TOTAL TOUCH ENVIRONMENT.
Now I can understand how implants could simulate your sense of touch, by generating the nerve impulses that correspond to a particular set of tactile stimuli. But the total touch environments also provided force feedback, so if you’re touching a virtual person, you don’t end up sticking your hand through her body.
WELL, SURE, BUT WE DON’T MOVE OUR PHYSICAL BODIES IN VIRTUAL REALITY—
You move your virtual body, of course. And the virtual reality system prevents you from moving your virtual hand through a barrier—like someone else’s virtual body—in the virtual environment. This all happens using the implants?
RIGHT.
So you could be sitting here talking to me in real reality, while at the same time getting intimate with George in virtual reality, and with full tactile realism?
WE CALL IT TACTILE VIRTUALISM, BUT YOU’VE GOT THE IDEA. HOWEVER, THE TACTILE SEPARATION BETWEEN REAL AND VIRTUAL REALITY IS NOT PERFECT. I MEAN, THIS IS STILL A NEW TECHNOLOGY. SO IF GEORGE AND I GOT TOO PASSIONATE, I THINK YOU’D NOTICE.
That’s too bad.
IT’S NOT A PROBLEM, THOUGH, IN GENERAL, SINCE I ATTEND MOST MEETINGS WITH A VIRTUAL BODY, ANYWAY. SO WHEN I GET RESTLESS IN THESE INTERMINABLE MEETINGS ON THE CENSUS PROJECT, I CAN SPEND A FEW PRIVATE MOMENTS WITH GEORGE ...
Using yet another virtual body?
EXACTLY.
And the tactile separation problem between real reality and one of your virtual realities isn’t a problem with two virtual bodies.
NOT REALLY, BUT SOMETIMES PEOPLE CATCH ME SMILING A LOT.
You mentioned glitches ...
SOMETIMES I FEEL LIKE SOMETHING OR SOMEONE IS TOUCHING ME, BUT IT MIGHT JUST BE MY IMAGINATION.
It’s probably just a worker from the neural implant company remotely testing out the equipment.
HMMM.
So you’re working on the census?
IT’S SUPPOSED TO BE AN HONOR. I MEAN IT’S LIKE THE HOT ISSUE RIGHT NOW BUT IT’S JUST ENDLESS POLITICS. AND ENDLESS MEETINGS.
Well, the census has always used the most cutting-edge technology. Electrical data processing got its start with the 1890 U.S. census, you know.
TELL ME ABOUT IT. THAT GETS MENTIONED AT LEAST THREE TIMES EVERY MEETING. BUT THE ISSUE’S NOT TECHNOLOGY.
It’s ...
WHO’S A PERSON. THERE ARE PROPOSALS TO START COUNTING VIRTUAL PERSONS OF AT LEAST HUMAN LEVEL, BUT THERE’S NO END OF PROBLEMS WITH COMING UP WITH A VIABLE
PROPOSAL. VIRTUAL PERSONS ARE NOT SO READILY COUNTABLE AND DISTINCT, SINCE THEY CAN COMBINE WITH ONE ANOTHER, OR SPLIT UP INTO MULTIPLE APPARENT PERSONALITIES.
Why don’t you just count machines that were derived from specific persons?
THERE ARE SOME CYBERNETIC PERSONALITIES WHO CLAIM THAT THEY USED TO BE A PARTICULAR PERSON, BUT THEY’RE REALLY JUST PERSONALITY EMULATIONS. THE COMMISSION JUST DIDN’T THINK IT WAS APPROPRIATE.
I would agree—personality emulation just doesn’t cut it. It should be the result of a full neural scan.
PERSONALLY, I’VE BEEN LEANING TO EXPANDING THE DEFINITION, BUT I’VE HAD DIFFICULTY COMING UP WITH A COHERENT METHODOLOGY. THE COMMISSION DID AGREE TO LOOK AT THE PROBLEM AGAIN WHEN THE NEURAL SCANS ARE EXPANDED TO A MAJORITY OF NEURAL REGIONS. IT’S A TOUGH ISSUE, THOUGH. WE DO HAVE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEIR MENTAL COMPUTES TAKING PLACE IN THEIR NANOTUBE IMPLANTS. BUT THE POLITICS SEEMS TO REQUIRE AT LEAST SOME UNENHANCED ORIGINAL SUBSTRATE TO BE COUNTED.
Original substrate? You mean human neurons?
RIGHT. IF YOU DON’T REQUIRE SOME NEURON-BASED THINKING, IT JUST GETS IMPOSSIBLE TO COUNT DISTINCT MINDS. YET SOME OF THE MACHINES DO MANAGE TO GET COUNTED. THEY SEEM TO ENJOY ESTABLISHING A HUMAN IDENTITY AND PASSING FOR A HUMAN. IT’S A BIT OF A GAME.
There must be legal benefits to having a recognized human identity.
THERE’S KIND OF A STANDOFE THE OLD LEGAL, SYSTEM STILL REQUIRES A HUMAN AGENT OF RESPONSIBILITY. BUT THE SAME ISSUE OF WHO OR WHAT IS HUMAN COMES UP IN THE LEGAL CONTEXT. ANYWAY, SO-CALLED HUMAN DECISIONS ARE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE IMPLANTS. AND THE MACHINES DON’T IMPLEMENT SIGNIFICANT DECISIONS WITHOUT THEIR OWN REVIEW. BUT I SUPPOSE YOU’RE RIGHT; THERE ARE SOME BENEFITS TO BEING COUNTED.
How about using a Turing Test as a means of counting?
THAT WOULD NEVER DO. FIRST OF ALL, IT WOULDN’T BE MUCH OF A SCREEN. FURTHERMORE, YOU’D HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM AGAIN IN SELECTING A HUMAN JUDGE TO CONDUCT THE TURING TEST. AND YOU’D STILL HAVE THE COUNTING ISSUE. TAKE GEORGE, FOR EXAMPLE. HE’S GREAT AT IMPRESSIONS. USUALLY, RIGHT AFTER DINNER, HE’LL ENTERTAIN ME WITH SOME PERSONALITY HE’S CONCOCTED. HE COULD SUBMIT THOUSANDS OF PERSONALITIES IF HE WANTED TO.
Speaking of George, doesn’t he want to be counted?
OH, I THINK HE SHOULD BE. HE’S SO MUCH WISER AND GENTLER THAN ANYONE ON THE COMMISSION. I GUESS THAT’S WHY I’VE WANTED TO EXPAND THE DEFINITION. GEORGE COULD MANAGE TO ESTABLISH THE REQUISITE IDENTITY ORIGIN IF HE WANTED TO. BUT HE REALLY DOESN’T CARE ABOUT IT.
He seems to care mostly about you.
HMMM. THAT COULD BE IT.
You sound a little frustrated with the commission.
WELL, I CAN UNDERSTAND THEIR NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS. I JUST FEEL THAT THEY’RE UNDULY INFLUENCED BY THE RY GROUPS.
The Luddites, I mean, Remember York ...
EXACTLY. I AM SYMPATHETIC TO A LOT OF THE YORK CONCERNS. BUT LATELY THEY’VE TAKEN STRIDENT POSITIONS AGAINST NEURAL IMPLANTS, WHICH IS JUST TOO RIGID. THEY’RE ALSO OPPOSED TO ANY OF THE NEURAL SCANNING RESEARCH.
So they’re influencing the census commission to keep a conservative definition of who can be counted as a human?
I’D SAY SO. THE COMMISSION DENIES IT, BUT THERE’S A GROWING CONSENSUS THAT THE YORK PEOPLE HAVE TOO MUCH OF A VOICE THERE. THE COMMISSION DIRECTOR’S BROTHER WAS ACTUALLY A MEMBER OF THE FLORENCE MANIFESTO BRIGADE.
Florence? Isn’t that where they locked up Kaczynski?
THAT’S RIGHT—FLORENCE, COLORADO. THE FLORENCE MANIFESTO WAS SMUGGLED OUT BY ONE OF THE GUARDS BEFORE KACZYNSKI’S DEATH. IT’S BECOME A KIND OF BIBLE FOR THE MORE STRIDENT YORK FACTIONS.
These are violent groups?
GENERALLY, NO. VIOLENCE WOULD BE UTTERLY FUTILE. OCCASIONALLY THERE ARE VIOLENT LONERS, OR SMALL GROUPS, WHO CLAIM TO BE PART OF THE FM BRIGADE, BUT THERE’S NO EVIDENCE OF ANY BROAD CONSPIRACY.
So what’s in the Florence Manifesto?