The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence

by Ray Kurzweil

  OKAY, REMEMBER IT’S BEEN SEVENTY YEARS SINCE WE’VE TALKED. THE YORK GROUPS DO HAVE THEIR ROOTS IN THE OLD ANTITECHNOLOGY MOVEMENTS, BUT NOW THAT THEY’RE ON THE OTHER SIDE, THEY’VE DRIFTED TO A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ISSUE, SPECIFICALLY INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM. THE FLORENCE MANIFESTO PEOPLE, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE KEPT A COMMITMENT TO REMAINING MOSHS, WHICH, OF COURSE, I RESPECT.

  Thank you. And they’re protected by the grandfather legislation?

  INDEED. I HEARD A PRESENTATION BY AN FM DISCUSSION LEADER THE OTHER DAY, AND WHILE SHE WAS SPEAKING IN A MOSH LANGUAGE, THERE WAS JUST NO WAY THAT SHE DOESN’T HAVE AT LEAST A NEURAL EXPANSION IMPLANT.

  Well, us MOSHs can make sense from time to time.

  OH, OF COURSE. I DIDN’T MEAN TO IMPLY OTHERWISE, I MEAN ...

  That’s okay So are you involved in this destroy-all-copies movement?

  JUST IN CATALOGING SOME OF THE PROPOSALS AND DISCUSSIONS. BUT I DID GET INVOLVED IN A RELATED MOVEMENT TO BLOCK LEGAL DISCOVERY OF THE BACKUP DATA.

  That sounds important. But what about discovery of the mind file itself? I mean, all of your thinking and memory is right there in digital form.

  ACTUALLY, IT’S BOTH DIGITAL AND ANALOG, BUT YOUR POINT IS WELL TAKEN.

  So...

  THERE HAVE BEEN RULINGS ON LEGAL DISCOVERY OF THE MIND FILE. BASICALLY, OUR KNOWLEDGE STRUCTURES THAT CORRESPOND TO WHAT USED TO CONSTITUTE DISCOVERABLE DOCUMENTS AND ARTIFACTS ARE DISCOVERABLE. THOSE STRUCTURES AND PATTERNS THAT CORRESPOND TO OUR THINKING PROCESS ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL ROOTED IN OUR MOSH PAST. BUT AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, THERE’S ENDLESS LITIGATION ON HOW TO INTERPRET THIS.

  So legal discovery of your primary mind file is resolved, albeit with some ambiguous rules. And the backup files?

  BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE BACKUP ISSUE IS NOT ENTIRELY RESOLVED. DOESN’T MAKE A LOT OF SENSE, DOES IT?

  The legal system was never entirely consistent. What about testimony—do you have to be physically present?

  SINCE MANY OF US DON’T HAVE A PERMANENT PHYSICAL PRESENCE, THAT WOULDN’T MAKE MUCH SENSE, NOW WOULD IT.

  I see, so you can give testimony with a virtual body?

  SURE, BUT YOU CAN’T BE DOING ANYTHING ELSE WHILE TESTIFYING.

  No asides with George, then.

  RIGHT.

  That sounds about right. Here in 1999, you can’t bring coffee into a courtroom and you have to turn off your cell phone.

  ASIDE FROM DISCOVERY, THERE’S A LOT OF CONCERN THAT GOVERNMENT INVESTIGATORY AGENCIES CAN ACCESS THE BACKUPS, ALTHOUGH THEY DENY IT.

  I’m not surprised that privacy is still an issue. Phil Zimmerman ...

  THE PGP GUY?

  Oh, you remember him?

  SURE, A LOT OF PEOPLE CONSIDER HIM A SAINT.

  His “Pretty Good Privacy” is indeed pretty good—it’s the leading encryption algorithm circa 1999. Anyway, he said that “in the future, we’ll all have fifteen minutes of privacy.”

  FIFTEEN MINUTES WOULD BE GREAT.

  Okay. Now what about the self-replicating nanobots you were concerned about in 2029?

  WE STRUGGLED WITH THAT FOR SEVERAL DECADES, AND THERE WERE A NUMBER OF SERIOUS INCIDENTS. BUT WE’RE PRETTY MUCH PAST THAT NOW SINCE WE DON’T PERMANENTLY MANIFEST OUR BODIES ANYMORE. AS LONG AS THE WEB IS SECURE, THEN WE HAVE NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

  Now that you exist as software, there must be concern again with software viruses.

  THAT’S PRETTY INSIGHTFUL. SOFTWARE PATHOGENS COMPRISE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE SECURITY AGENCIES. THEY’RE SAYING THAT THE VIRUS SCANS ACTUALLY CONSUME MORE THAN HALF OF THE COMPUTATION ON THE WEB.

  Just to look for virus matches.

  VIRUS SCANS INVOLVE A LOT MORE THAN JUST MATCHING PATHOGEN CODES. THE SMARTER SOFTWARE PATHOGENS ARE CONSTANTLY TRANSFORMING THEMSELVES. THERE ARE NO LAYERS TO RELIABLY MATCH ON.

  Sounds tricky.

  WE CERTAINLY DO HAVE TO BE CONSTANTLY ON GUARD AS WE MANAGE THE FLOW OF OUR THOUGHTS ACROSS THE SUBSTRATE CHANNELS.

  What about security of the hardware?

  YOU MEAN THE WEB?

  That’s where you exist, isn’t it?

  SURE. THE WEB IS VERY SECURE BECAUSE IT’S EXTREMELY DECENTRALIZED AND REDUNDANT. AT LEAST, THAT’S WHAT WE’RE TOLD. LARGE PORTIONS OF IT COULD BE DESTROYED WITH ESSENTIALLY NO EFFECT.

  There must be an ongoing effort to maintain it as well.

  THE WEB HARDWARE IS SELF-REPLICATING NOW, AND IS CONTINUALLY EXPANDING. THE OLDER CIRCUITS ARE CONTINUALLY RECYCLED AND REDESIGNED.

  So there’s no concern with its security?

  I SUPPOSE I DO HAVE SOME SENSE OF ANXIETY ABOUT THE SUBSTRATE. I’VE ALWAYS ASSUMED THAT THIS FREE-FLOATING, ANXIOUS FEELING WAS JUST ROOTED IN MY MOSH PAST. BUT IT’S REALLY NOT A PROBLEM. I CAN’T IMAGINE THAT THE WEB COULD BE VULNERABLE.

  What about from self-replicating nanopathogens?

  HMMM, I SUPPOSE THAT COULD BE A DANGER, BUT THE NANOBOT PLAGUE WOULD HAVE TO BE AWFULLY EXTENSIVE TO REACH ALL OF THE SUBSTRATE. I WONDER IF SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPENED FIFTEEN YEARS AGO WHEN 90 PERCENT OF THE WEB CAPACITY DISAPPEARED—WE NEVER DID GET AN ADEQUATE EXPLANATION OF THAT.

  Well, I didn’t mean to raise your anxieties. So all this cataloging work, you do that as an entrepreneur?

  YEAH, KIND OF MY OWN LITTLE BUSINESS.

  How’s it going financially?

  I’M GETTING BY, BUT I’VE NEVER HAD A LOT OF MONEY.

  Well, give me some idea, what’s your net worth roughly?

  OH, NOT EVEN A BILLION DOLLARS.

  That’s in 2099 dollars?

  SURE.

  Okay, so what’s that in 1999 dollars?

  LET’S SEE, IN 1999 DOLLARS, THAT WOULD BE $149 BILLION AND CHANGE.

  Oh, so dollars are worth more in 2099 than in 1999?

  SURE, THE DEFLATION HAS BEEN PICKING UP.

  I see. So you’re richer than Bill Gates.

  YEAH, WELL, RICHER THAN GATES WAS IN 1999. BUT THAT’S NOT SAYING MUCH. BUT HE’S STILL THE RICHEST MAN IN THE WORLD IN 2099.

  I thought he said he was going to spend the first half of his life making money and the second half giving it away?

  I THINK HE’S STILL ON THAT SAME PLAN. BUT HE HAS GIVEN AWAY A LOT OF MONEY.

  So, what are you, about average, in terms of net worth?

  NO, PROBABLY MORE LIKE EIGHTIETH PERCENTILE.

  That’s not bad, I always thought you were a smart cookie.

  WELL, GEORGE HELPS.

  And don’t forget who thought you up.

  OF COURSE.

  So do you have enough financial wherewithal to meet your needs?

  NEEDS?

  Yeah, you’re familiar with the concept ...

  HMMM, THAT IS A RATHER QUAINT IDEA. IT’S BEEN A FEW DECADES SINCE I’VE THOUGHT ABOUT NEEDS. ALTHOUGH I READ A BOOK ABOUT THAT RECENTLY.

  A book, you mean with words?

  No, OF COURSE NOT, NOT UNLESS WE’RE DOING SOME RESEARCH ON EARLIER CENTURIES.

  So this is like the research papers—books of assimilated knowledge structures?

  THAT’S A REASONABLE WAY TO PUT IT. SEE, I SAID THERE WAS NOTHING A MOSH COULDN’T UNDERSTAND.

  Thanks.

  BUT WE DO DISTINGUISH PAPERS FROM BOOKS.

  Books are longer?

  NO, MORE INTELLIGENT. A PAPER IS BASICALLY A STATIC STRUCTURE. A BOOK IS INTELLIGENT. YOU CAN HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH A BOOK. BOOKS CAN HAVE EXPERIENCES WITH EACH OTHER.

  Reminds me of Marvin Minsky’s statement, “Can you imagine that they used to have libraries where the books didn’t talk to each other?”

  IT IS HARD TO RECALL THAT THAT USED TO BE TRUE.

  Okay, so you don’t have any unsatisfied needs. How about desires?

  YES, NOW THAT’S A CONCEPT I CAN RELATE TO. MY FINANCIAL MEANS ARE CERTAINLY RATHER LIMITING. THERE ARE ALWAYS SUCH DIFFICULT BUDGET TRADE-OFFS TO BE MADE.

  I guess some things haven’t changed.

  RIGHT. I MEAN LAST YEAR, THERE WERE OVER FIVE THOUSAND VENTURE PROPOSALS I DEARLY WANTED TO INVEST IN,
BUT I COULD BARELY DO A THIRD OF THEM.

  I guess you’re no Bill Gates.

  THAT’S FOR SURE.

  When you make an investment, what does it pay for? I mean, you don’t need to buy office supplies.

  BASICALLY FOR PEOPLE’S TIME AND THOUGHTS, AND FOR KNOWLEDGE. ALSO, WHILE THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF FREELY DISTRIBUTED KNOWLEDGE ON THE WEB, WE HAVE TO PAY ACCESS FEES FOR A LOT OF IT.

  That doesn’t sound too different from 1999.

  MONEY IS CERTAINLY USEFUL.

  So you’ve been around for a long time now. Does that ever bother you?

  As WOODY ALLEN SAID, “SOME PEOPLE WANT TO ACHIEVE IMMORTALITY THROUGH THEIR WORK OR THEIR DESCENDANTS. I INTEND TO ACHIEVE IMMORTALITY BY NOT DYING.”

  I’m glad to see that Allen is still influential.

  BUT I DO HAVE THIS RECURRENT DREAM.

  You still dream?

  OF COURSE I DO. I COULDN’T BE CREATIVE IF I DIDN’T DREAM. I TRY TO DREAM AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. I HAVE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DREAMS GOING AT ALL TIMES.

  And the dream?

  THERE’S A LONG ROW OF BUILDINGS—MILLIONS OF BUILDINGS. I GO INTO ONE, AND IT’S EMPTY. I CHECK OUT ALL THE ROOMS, AND THERE’S NO ONE THERE, NO FURNITURE, NOTHING. I LEAVE AND GO ON TO THE NEXT BUILDING. I GO FROM BUILDING TO BUILDING, AND THEN SUDDENLY THE DREAM ENDS WITH THIS FEELING OF DREAD ...

  Kind of a glimpse of despair at the apparently endless nature of time?

  HMMM, MAYBE, BUT THEN THE FEELING GOES AWAY, AND I FIND THAT I CAN’T THINK ABOUT THE DREAM. IT JUST SEEMS TO VANISH.

  Sounds like some sort of antidepression algorithm kicking in.

  MAYBE I SHOULD LOOK INTO OVERRIDING IT?

  The dream or the algorithm?

  I WAS THINKING OF THE LATTER.

  That might be hard to do.

  ALAS.

  So are you thinking about anything else at the moment?

  I AM TRYING TO MEDITATE.

  Along with the symphony, Jeremy, Emily, George, our conversation, and your one or two dreams?

  HEY, THAT’S REALLY NOT VERY MUCH. YOU HAVE ALMOST ALL OF MY ATTENTION. I SUPPOSE THERE’S NOTHING ELSE GOING ON IN YOUR MIND AT THE MOMENT?

  Okay, you’re right. There is a lot going on in my mind, not that I can make heads or tails of most of it.

  OKAY, THERE YOU ARE.

  So how’s your meditation going?

  I GUESS I’M A LITTLE DISTRACTED WITH OUR DIALOGUE. IT’S NOT EVERY DAY THAT I GET TO TALK TO SOMEONE FROM 1999.

  How about in general?

  MY MEDITATION? IT’S VERY IMPORTANT TO ME. THERE’S SO MUCH GOING ON IN MY LIFE NOW IT’S IMPORTANT FROM TIME TO TIME TO JUST LET THE THOUGHTS WASH OVER ME.

  Does the meditation help you to transcend?

  SOMETIMES I FEEL LIKE I CAN TRANSCEND, AND GET TO A POINT OF PEACE AND SERENITY, BUT IT’S NO EASIER NOW THAN IT WAS WHEN I FIRST MET YOU.

  What about those neurological correlates of spiritual experience?

  THERE ARE SOME SUPERFICIAL FEELINGS I CAN INSTILL IN MYSELF, BUT THAT’S NOT REAL SPIRITUALITY. IT’S LIKE ANY AUTHENTIC GESTURE—AN ARTFUL EXPRESSION, A MOMENT OF SERENITY, A SENSE OF FRIENDSHIP—THAT’S WHAT I LIVE FOR, AND THOSE MOMENTS ARE NOT EASY TO ACHIEVE.

  I guess I’m glad to hear some things still aren’t easy.

  LIFE IS QUITE HARD, ACTUALLY. THERE ARE JUST SO MANY DEMANDS AND EXPECTATIONS MADE OF ME. AND I HAVE SO MANY LIMITATIONS.

  One limitation I can think of is that we’re running out of space in this book.

  AND TIME.

  That too. I do deeply appreciate your sharing your reflections with me.

  I’M APPRECIATIVE, TOO. I WOULDN’T HAVE EXISTED WITHOUT YOU.

  I hope the rest of you on the other side remember that as well.

  I’LL SPREAD THE WORD.

  Maybe we should kiss goodbye?

  JUST A KISS?

  We’ll leave it at that for this book. I’ll reconsider the ending for the movie, particularly if I get to play myself.

  HERE’S MY KISS.... Now REMEMBER, I’M READY TO DO ANYTHING OR BE ANYTHING YOU WANT OR NEED.

  I’ll keep that in mind.

  YES, THAT’S WHERE YOU’LL FIND ME.

  Too bad I have to wait a century to meet you.

  OR TO BE ME.

  Yes, that too.

  EPILOGUE:

  THE REST OF THE UNIVERSE REVISITED

  Actually, Molly, there are a few other questions that have occurred to me.

  What were those limitations that you referred to?

  What did you say you were anxious about?

  What are you afraid of?

  Do you feel pain?

  What about babies and children?

  Molly? ...

  It looks as if Molly’s not going to be able to answer any more of our questions. But that’s okay. We don’t need to answer them either. Not yet, anyway. For now, it’s enough just to ask the right questions. We’ll have decades to think about the answers.

  The accelerating pace of change is inexorable. The emergence of machine intelligence that exceeds human intelligence in all of its broad diversity is inevitable. But we still have the power to shape our future technology and our future lives. That is the main reason I wrote this book.

  Let’s consider one final question. The Law of Time and Chaos, and its more important sublaw, the Law of Accelerating Returns, are not limited to evolutionary processes here on Earth. What are the implications of the Law of Accelerating Returns on the rest of the Universe?

  Rare and Plentiful

  Before Copernicus, the Earth was placed at the center of the Universe and was regarded as a substantial portion of it. We now know that the Earth is but a small celestial object circling a routine star among a hundred billion suns in our galaxy, which is itself but one of about a hundred billion galaxies. There is a widespread assumption that life, even intelligent life, is not unique to our humble planet, but another heavenly body hosting life-forms has yet to be identified.

  No one can yet state with certainty how common life may be in the Universe. My speculation is that it is both rare and plentiful, sharing that trait with a diversity of other fundamental phenomena. For example, matter itself is both rare and plentiful. If one were to select a proton-sized region at random, the probability that one would find a proton (or any other particle) in that region is extremely small, less than one in a trillion trillion. In other words, space is very empty, and particles are very spread out. And that’s true right here on Earth—the probability of finding a particle in any particular location in outer space is even lower. Yet we nonetheless have trillions of trillions of protons in the Universe. Hence matter is both rare and plentiful.