Verizon has a relatively high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 5.894, which is much higher than the debt‑to‑equity ratios of competitors AT&T and T‑Mobile. The company has averaged net margins of 7.03% over the last five years, which is above the 5% minimum that I require. Verizon has a very high average return on equity of 45.9%, which is largely the result of the amount of debt the company carries. As I write this chapter, the stock is trading at $52.88 and it is trading slightly above its Morningstar fair value estimate of $50.00. Verizon, like most companies you will analyze, won’t meet 100% of the criteria that we outline in this chapter, but it comes pretty close. My two big concerns about Verizon are its relatively low dividend‑growth rate of 3.2% and the amount of debt the company carries relative to its competitors. These aren’t deal breakers given Verizon’s already‑competitive dividend yield and its ability to manage its debt, but I probably wouldn’t call it a “top pick,” either.
Dividend Analysis Example: Realty Income Corp
Another favorite stock among dividend investors is Realty Income Corp (O). The company currently pays out an annual dividend of $2.42, which works out to a yield of 3.65% based on a share price of $66.27. The company has raised its dividend every year for the last 20 years and has a dividend payout ratio of 85%, which is to be expected because the company is a real‑estate investment trust. It has raised its dividend by an average of 8.6% per year over the last three years, which is an extremely attractive dividend‑growth rate. Realty Income Corp has a very healthy debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.73:1 and very healthy net margins of 27.97%. The company has an average return on equity of 6.62%, which is acceptable but lower than some of its competitors.
Overall, Realty Income Corp’s dividend yield and its track record of paying steadily growing, sustainable dividends make it very attractive to dividend investors. The only major downside for the company is that so many investors have identified it as a solid company that its price has risen dramatically over the last year. It’s trading near the top of its 52‑week range and it currently has a P/E ratio of more than 60. It is also trading at 130% of its Morningstar fair value estimate. I personally own shares of Realty Income Corp, but probably wouldn’t add on to my position until the stock price recedes much closer to its Morningstar fair value estimate.
Dividend Analysis Example: Spectra Energy Partners
Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) is a master limited partnership (MLP) that I personally own shares of. SEP operates liquid natural gas pipelines in the Northeastern and Southeastern United States. The partnership currently pays a very healthy dividend yield of 5.85% and has raised its dividend by an average of 8% over the last three years. SEP has a dividend‑payout ratio of 82%, which is not unusual for an energy MLP. The partnership has raised its dividend for nine consecutive years in a row, which is not quite the track record I desire, but SEP’s current management appears to be strongly committed to its dividend.
The company’s earnings have been growing at a healthy clip, despite the recent dip in energy prices. SEP’s debt‑to‑equity ratio averages about 1.7, which is very reasonable given that SEP operates in an infrastructure‑heavy industry. The partnership currently has an attractive net margin of 46.44% and a return on equity of about 11%. Spectra Energy Partners is an example of a company that I currently find very attractive. It’s only trading at 91% of its Morningstar fair value estimate and it has an extremely healthy dividend yield of 5.85%. It has been steadily raising its dividend every year and its other financial metrics are generally in line with where they should be.
A Note About These Examples
Please note that the numbers used in these three example analyses were based on a single snapshot in time when I wrote this chapter in September, 2016. The numbers and future prospects for each of these companies have almost certainly changed since I wrote the book.
If you are considering buying or selling any of these stocks, please do your own independent analysis of each of the stocks based on their current financials before making a trade. My personal view of any of these companies may have changed since I wrote this chapter in September, 2016.
By reading through these three examples, I hope you will begin to use the qualitative and quantitative metrics outlined in this chapter as general evaluation guidelines when considering trading dividend stocks. There probably won’t be many companies that fall exactly into the cookie‑cutter ranges that I suggest for each metric, but there are many great dividend stocks that will fall into the suggested ranges I offer for most metrics. The key is to evaluate a company’s dividend yield, number of years of dividend growth, average annual dividend growth, average earnings growth, dividend payout ratio, debt‑to‑equity ratio, net margins, return on equity, and fair value estimate and determine whether or not each metric is attractive and makes sense for the company given the industry that it is in.
Dividend Evaluation Checklist:
Dividend Yield: Ideally Between 3.5% and 6.5%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth: Ideally At Least 10
Average Annual Dividend Growth: Ideally between 5% and 10%
Average Annual Earnings Growth: Ideally in line with or above dividend‑growth rates.
Dividend Payout Ratio: Ideally less than 75%, except for REITs and MLPs
Debt to Equity Ratio: Ideally 1:1 or less
Net Margins: Ideally at least 5%
Return on Equity: Ideally at least 10%
Fair Value Estimate: Ideally trading below Morningstar’s Fair Value Estimate
CHAPTER FOUR
How to Discover Great Dividend Stocks
You now know the qualitative and quantitative metrics that investors should use to measure the quality of a dividend stock, but how do you find attractive dividend stocks that meet the criteria in chapter three? In the past, you may have had to start out with a spreadsheet of the 5,000 stocks that are publicly traded in the United States and test each company against the listed criteria. Fortunately, there are now several websites, tools, and lists that cater to dividend investors, which make it very easy to identify great dividend stocks.
Dividend Lists
Over the last several decades, Standard and Poor’s, NASDAQ, and a number of other companies have attempted to create models that identify best‑of‑breed dividend stocks. Each of these stock lists has specific requirements for companies to be listed, such as having raised their dividend every year for a minimum number of years, having a certain minimum market cap and meeting specific capital requirements. These lists, such as the S&P Dividend Aristocrats, provide a good starting point for anyone looking to create a portfolio of dividend stocks, because every company included in these lists has consistently raised their dividend for many years in a row.
S&P Dividend Aristocrats
The S&P Dividend Aristocrats list is a list of S&P 500 companies that have raised their dividend every year for at least the last 25 years. To be included in the list, companies must have a minimum market cap of $3 billion and an average daily trading volume of $5 million. As of 2016, there are currently 52 companies listed on the S&P Dividend Aristocrats list. You can view a list of the companies currently included on the SP Dividend Aristocrats list at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/aristocrats/.
S&P Dow Jones Indices tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats through an equal‑weighted index of the companies that are currently on the list. This index has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the last decade. Over the 10‑year period ending in September, 2016, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats has earned annualized returns of 10.68% per year. This is particularly impressive given that the S&P 500 returned average annualized returns of just 7.5% during the same period. Not only has the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index outperformed the S&P 500 index, it has done so with lower volatility and lower risk. You can track the ongoing performance of the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index at http://us.spindices.com/indices/strategy/sp-500-dividend-aristocrats.
Wh
y has the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the last decade? First, companies that pay strong dividends are likely to be generating strong earnings and cash flow that support their above‑average dividend payments. Second, a company that pays dividends has to be more selective about how they reinvest earnings into their businesses, because a portion of the company’s cash flow is paid out in dividends. Because capital allocation must be more heavily scrutinized in dividend‑paying businesses, questionable growth initiatives that are unlikely to create shareholder value do not get funded. Finally, many would argue that the companies listed in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index are simply higher‑quality companies on average. For a company to have the earnings and cash flow to support increasing its dividend for 25 consecutive years, it must have an economic moat or other competitive advantage that allows it to outperform its competitors.
NASDAQ Dividend Achievers Index
The NASDAQ Dividend Achievers Index is a list of 274 companies that have raised their dividend each year for at least the last 10 years. To be included in the Dividend Achievers Index, a company must be a member of the NASDAQ US Benchmark Index and meet certain minimum capitalization and liquidity requirements. You can view a list of companies that are currently included in the Dividend Achievers Index at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/achievers/.
The companies listed in the Dividend Achievers Index have similar qualities to the companies listed in the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. They have a track record of steadily raising their dividends, they have earnings and cash flow to support their dividend payments, and they have lower volatility than the broader market.
The major difference is that the companies in the Dividend Achievers Index do not have as long of a track record of raising their dividends as those in the Dividend Aristocrats Index do. It may be tempting to focus exclusively on the companies that are in the Dividend Aristocrats Index because of their long track records of dividend growth, but I think this is a mistake.
There are many great dividend stocks listed on the Dividend Achievers Index that offer high yields, have strong growth prospects, and are well on their way to being included in the Dividend Aristocrats Index that should be considered for your portfolio as well.
David Fish’s Dividend Champions List
Like the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index, the Dividend Champions List is a list of companies that have raised their dividends for 25 consecutive years. The Dividend Champions list is compiled by David Fish of Moneypaper’s DirectInvesting.com. The major difference between the two indexes is that the Dividend Champions list does not include the capital and liquidity requirements of the Dividend Aristocrats Index.
In addition to the 52 companies on the Dividend Aristocrats Index, the Dividend Champions includes an additional 57 companies that do not meet the capital requirements of the Dividend Aristocrats Index. These additional companies either have market caps of less than $3 billion or trade less than an average of $5 million worth of shares each day. The companies currently listed on the Dividend Champions list can be accessed at www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp.
David Fish also maintains two other dividend lists. His Dividend Challengers list includes companies that have raised their dividend every year for at least the last five years but not more than 10 years. His Dividend Contenders list includes companies that have raised their dividend every year for at least the last 10 years but not more than 24 years.
David Fish regularly publishes updates about the Dividend Challengers List, the Dividend Contenders List, and the Dividend Champions list on SeekingAlpha at www.seekingalpha.com/author/david-fish/articles.
Dividend Kings
The Dividend Kings list includes companies that have raised their dividend every year for more than 50 consecutive years. Companies that have a track record of raising their dividend each year for more than five decades have competitive advantages that stand the test of time.
As of the publishing of this book, there are currently 18 companies listed on the Dividend Kings list, including American States Water (AWR), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), Colgate‑Palmolive (CL), Dover Corporation (DOV), Emerson Electric (EMR), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB), Genuine Parts Company (GPC), Hormel Foods (HRL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca‑Cola (KO), Lancaster Colony (LANC), Lowe’s (LOW), 3M (MMM), Nordson (NDSN), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), Parker‑Hannifin (PH), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Vectren (VVC).
A Warning About Using Dividend Lists
The lists of dividend stocks mentioned in this chapter are a good starting point for your research, but you should not buy a stock simply because it is included in an index of dividend stocks. Some of the companies in the Dividend Aristocrats index and the Dividend Achievers index actually have lower dividend yields than the S&P 500. None of these lists require a company to have a minimum dividend yield or a minimum amount of dividend growth each year. Some companies will raise their dividend by a token amount each year to maintain their status on these lists while offering low yields. For example, C. R. Bard (BCR) is included on the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index despite having a dividend yield of just 0.5% and Dover Corp is included on the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index despite only growing its dividend by an average of 3.3% per year. While dividend lists are a good place to start looking for companies to invest in, make sure that the dividend stocks you buy meet the other recommended criteria outlined in the last chapter.
Dividend Tools on MarketBeat.com
As someone who personally invests in dividend stocks and operates an investment‑research website, I am in the unique position of knowing what types of tools dividend investors need and having the ability to actually create them. As a result, we’ve put together a number of research tools specifically geared toward dividend‑stock investors. We make these tools available to everyone for free through our website. You don’t even have to give us your email address to use them. Here are the dividend research tools on our website that you might want to make use of:
Dividend Screener – Our dividend screener tool allows you to screen companies by a variety of factors that are important to dividend investors, such as dividend yield, payout ratio, average annual dividend growth, number of consecutive years of dividend growth, and a number of other factors. This tool is probably the best shortcut you have available to finding great dividend stocks that meet the criteria outlined in chapter three. You can access MarketBeat’s dividend screener at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/screener/.
Dividend Announcements – MarketBeat keeps track of dividend announcements as they are made in real time. You can use our dividend‑announcements calendars each day to view a complete list of publicly traded companies that have announced new dividends. You can easily scan through the list to see if any companies you own have announced new dividends. MarketBeat’s dividend‑announcements list is available at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/latest.
Ex‑Dividend Calendar – Use this calendar to view a list of stocks that are going ex‑dividend over the next several days. This is particularly helpful if you’re looking at stocks to buy and want to get your first dividend payment soon after you make your purchase. You can access MarketBeat’s ex‑dividend calendar at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/ex/latest.
High-Yield Stocks – You can view a list of companies that offer particularly high yields using this report. While high yields may seem enticing, make sure to confirm a company’s ability to pay its dividend by looking at its payout ratio and earnings growth before making a purchase. You can access MarketBeat’s high‑yield stocks list at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/high-yield.
Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats – We provide an up‑to‑date list of dividend achievers and dividend aristocrats on the MarketBeat website. You can access the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/aristocrats/ and the Dividend Achievers list at www.marketbeat.com/dividends/achievers/.
Company Profiles – One of the features that we are pr
oudest of on the MarketBeat website is our company profiles. For any publicly traded company, you can look up a full history of that company’s analyst recommendations, earnings announcements, dividend announcements, insider trades, and headlines. You can also view a stream of recent news about a company and view recent social‑media mentions for a company on StockTwits. Our company profile pages include a full description of each company’s business model, a number of important financial metrics, and an advanced charting tool. You can look up any publicly traded company’s profile page at www.marketbeat.com/stocks.
MarketBeat Daily Premium – This is the only resource included in this list that isn’t free. MarketBeat Daily Premium is our premium email newsletter that allows you to create a watch list of stocks that you follow and receive a full summary of every important news item that you would want to know about your companies a full 30 minutes before the market opens. You’ll also receive a full run-down of each day’s analyst ratings, dividend announcements, earnings announcements, and insider trades. You can also opt to receive instant email or SMS alerts so that we can notify you whenever one of your companies announces a new dividend or is the subject of an important news story. MarketBeat Daily Premium is normally available for $15.97 per month, but readers of this book can subscribe for just $9.97 using this special link: www.bit.ly/marketbeatdailypremium.
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