Under a White Sky
Page 19
Researchers once picked apart: Spalding et al., World Atlas of Coral Reefs, 27.
Using genetic-sequencing techniques: Laetitia Plaisance et al., “The Diversity of Coral Reefs: What Are We Missing?” PLoS ONE, 6 (2011), journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025026.
between one and nine million species: Nancy Knowlton, “The Future of Coral Reefs,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 98 (2001), 5419–5425.
“In the coral city there is no waste”: Richard C. Murphy, Coral Reefs: Cities under the Sea (Princeton, N.J.: The Darwin Press, 2002), 33.
“It will be slimy”: Roger Bradbury, “A World Without Coral Reefs,” The New York Times (July 13, 2012), A17.
The authority said that the reef’s long-term prospects: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2019 (Townsville, Aus.: GBRMPA, 2019), vi. The full report is available at: http://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/handle/11017/3474/.
a gigantic new coal mine: “Adani Gets Final Environmental Approval for Carmichael Mine,” Australian Broadcasting Corporation News (last updated June 13, 2019), abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/adani-carmichael-coal-mine-approved-water-management-galilee/11203208.
“The world’s most insane energy project”: Jeff Goodell, “The World’s Most Insane Energy Project Moves Ahead,” Rolling Stone (June 14, 2019), rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/adani-mine-australia-climate-change-848315/.
“entangled bank, clothed with many plants of many kinds”: Darwin, On the Origin of Species, 489.
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calls himself a “genetic designer”: Josiah Zayner, “How to Genetically Engineer a Human in Your Garage—Part I,” josiahzayner.com/2017/01/genetic-designer-part-i.html.
“a way to rewrite the very molecules of life”: Jennifer A. Doudna and Samuel H. Sternberg, A Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017), 119.
ants that can’t smell: Waring Trible et al, “orco Mutagenesis Causes Loss of Antennal Lobe Glomeruli and Impaired Social Behavior in Ants,” Cell, 170 (2017), 727–735.
macaques that suffer from sleep disorders: Peiyuan Qiu et al., “BMAL1 Knockout Macaque Monkeys Display Reduced Sleep and Psychiatric Disorders,” National Science Review, 6 (2019), 87–100.
Eadweard Muybridge’s famous series of photographs: Seth L. Shipman et al., “CRISPR-Cas Encoding of a Digital Movie into the Genomes of a Population of Living Bacteria,” Nature, 547 (2017), 345–349.
The Australian Animal Health Laboratory: Several months after I visited, the Australian Animal Health Laboratory was renamed the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness.
“an enormous, warty bufonid”: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, “Cane Toad (Rhinella marina) Ecological Risk Screening Summary,” web version (revised Apr. 5, 2018), fws.gov/fisheries/ans/erss/highrisk/ERSS-Rhinella-marina-final-April2018.pdf.
“Large individuals sitting on roadways”: L. A. Somma, “Rhinella marina (Linnaeus, 1758),” U.S. Geological Survey, Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database (revised Apr. 11, 2019), nas.er.usgs.gov/queries/FactSheet.aspx?SpeciesID=48.
A toad named Bette Davis: Rick Shine, Cane Toad Wars (Oakland: University of California, 2018), 7.
In the mid-1800s, they were imported to the Caribbean: Byron S. Wilson et al., “Cane Toads a Threat to West Indian Wildlife: Mortality of Jamaican Boas Attributable to Toad Ingestion,” Biological Invasions, 13 (2011), link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10530-010-9787-7.
they’d produced more than 1.5 million eggs: Shine, Cane Toad Wars, 21.
toads on the front lines had significantly longer legs: Benjamin L. Phillips et al., “Invasion and the Evolution of Speed in Toads,” Nature, 439 (2006), 803.
“It has invaded the Territory”: Karen Michelmore, “Super Toad,” Northern Territory News (Feb. 16, 2006), 1.
The list of species whose numbers have crashed: Shine, Cane Toad Wars, 4. See also: “The Biological Effects, Including Lethal Toxic Ingestion, Caused by Cane Toads (Bufo marinus): Advice to the Minister for the Environment and Heritage from the Threatened Species Scientific Committee (TSSC) on Amendments to the List of Key Threatening Processes under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act)” (Apr. 12, 2005), environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/key-threatening-processes/biological-effects-cane-toads.
the Australian government offer a bounty: House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment and Energy, Cane Toads on the March: Inquiry into Controlling the Spread of Cane Toads (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2019), 32.
amplifies the poison’s potency a hundredfold: Robert Capon, “Inquiry into Controlling the Spread of Cane Toads, Submission 8” (Feb. 2019). Available for download at: aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Environment_and_Energy/Canetoads/Submissions.
Feed them toad “sausages”: Naomi Indigo et al., “Not Such Silly Sausages: Evidence Suggests Northern Quolls Exhibit Aversion to Toads after Training with Toad Sausages,” Austral Ecology, 43 (2018), 592–601.
Some interfere with the replication of a rival gene: Austin Burt and Robert Trivers, Genes in Conflict: The Biology of Selfish Genetic Elements (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap, 2006), 4–5.
passed on more than ninety percent of the time: Burt and Trivers, Genes in Conflict, 3.
including mosquitoes, flour beetles, and lemmings: Burt and Trivers, Genes in Conflict, 13–14.
to create a synthetic gene drive in yeast: James E. DiCarlo et al., “Safeguarding CRISPR-Cas9 Gene Drives in Yeast,” Nature Biotechnology, 33 (2015), 1250–1255.
to create a synthetic gene drive in fruit flies: Valentino M. Gantz and Ethan Bier, “The Mutagenic Chain Reaction: A Method for Converting Heterozygous to Homozygous Mutations,” Science, 348 (2015), 442–444.
until yellow ruled: Doudna and Sternberg estimate that had the gene-drive fruit flies escaped, they could have spread the gene for yellow coloring to between a fifth and a half of all fruit flies worldwide. A Crack in Creation, 151.
“There is hope”: GBIRd website, geneticbiocontrol.org.
down to zero within a few years: Thomas A. A. Prowse, et al., “Dodging Silver Bullets: Good CRISPR Gene-Drive Design Is Critical for Eradicating Exotic Vertebrates,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 284 (2017), royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.0799.
claimed at least a thousand species of island birds: Richard P. Duncan, Alison G. Boyer, and Tim M. Blackburn, “Magnitude and Variation of Prehistoric Bird Extinctions in the Pacific,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (2013), 6436–6441.
Despite intensive efforts to save them: Elizabeth A. Bell, Brian D. Bell, and Don V. Merton, “The Legacy of Big South Cape: Rat Irruption to Rat Eradication,” New Zealand Journal of Ecology, 40 (2016), 212–218.
“Only humans are as adaptable”: Lee M. Silver, Mouse Genetics: Concepts and Applications (Oxford: Oxford University, 1995), adapted for the Web by Mouse Genome Informatics, The Jackson Laboratory (revised Jan. 2008), http://informatics.jax.org/silver/.
“like working in an ornithological trauma center”: Alex Bond, “Mice Wreak Havoc for South Atlantic Seabirds,” British Ornithologists’ Union, bou.org.uk/blog-bond-gough-island-mice-seabirds/.
compared to Kurt Vonnegut’s ice-nine: Rowan Jacobsen, “Deleting a Species,” Pacific Standard (June–July 2018, updated Sept. 7, 2018), psmag.com/magazine/deleting-a-species-genetically-engineering-an-extinction.
with names like “killer-rescue”: Jaye Sudweeks et al., “Locally Fixed Alleles: A Method to Localize Gene Drive to Island Populations,” Scientific Reports, 9 (2019), doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-51
994-0.
featuring a so-called CATCHA sequence: Bing Wu, Liqun Luo, and Xiaojing J. Gao, “Cas9-Triggered Chain Ablation of Cas9 as Gene Drive Brake,” Nature Biotechnology, 34 (2016), 137–138.
“new techniques of genetic rescue”: Revive & Restore website, reviverestore.org/projects/.
“Do you know how he did it?”: Dr. Seuss, The Cat in the Hat Comes Back (New York: Beginner Books, 1958), 16.
“an extinction avalanche”: Edward O. Wilson, The Future of Life (New York: Vintage, 2002), 53.
“We are not as gods”: Wilson, Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life (New York: Liveright, 2016), 51.
“We are as gods, but we have failed to get good at it”: Paul Kingsnorth, “Life Versus the Machine,” Orion (Winter 2018), 28–33.
Up in the Air
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“The start of the switchover”: William F. Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 2005), 4.
humans emitted some fifteen million tons of CO2: Historical emissions data come from Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” Our World in Data (last revised Aug. 2020), ourworldindata.org/CO2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions.
Droughts are growing deeper: Benjamin Cook, “Climate Change Is Already Making Droughts Worse,” CarbonBrief (May 14, 2018), carbonbrief.org/guest-post-climate-change-is-already-making-droughts-worse.
storms fiercer: Kieran T. Bhatia et al., “Recent Increases in Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates,” Nature Communications, 10 (2019), doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z.
Wildfire season is getting longer: W. Matt Jolly et al., “Climate-Induced Variations in Global Wildfire Danger from 1979 to 2013,” Nature Communications, 6 (2015), doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8537.
melt off of Antarctica has increased threefold: A. Shepherd et al., “Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017,” Nature, 558 (2018), 219–222.
most atolls will, in another few decades: Curt D. Storlazzi et al., “Most Atolls Will Be Uninhabitable by the Mid-21st Century Because of Sea-Level Rise Exacerbating Wave-Driven Flooding,” Science Advances, 25 (2018), advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/4/eaap9741.
“holding the increase in the global average temperature”: The full text of the Paris Agreement in English is available at: unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf.
To stave off 1.5°C: There are many ways to calculate how much CO2 can still be emitted if the world is to stay below 1.5° or 2°C; I am using the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change’s “remaining carbon budget” figures, available at: mcc-berlin.net/en/research/CO2-budget.html.
“smaller than many deserts”: K. S. Lackner and C. H. Wendt, “Exponential Growth of Large Self-Reproducing Machine Systems,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 21 (1995), 55–81.
as “adventure capital”: Wallace S. Broecker and Robert Kunzig, Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat—and How to Counter It (New York: Hill and Wang, 2008), 205.
“Rewarding people for going to the bathroom less”: Klaus S. Lackner and Christophe Jospe, “Climate Change Is a Waste Management Problem,” Issues in Science and Technology, 33 (2017), issues.org/climate-change-is-a-waste-management-problem/.
“Such a moral stance”: Lackner and Jospe, “Climate Change Is a Waste Management Problem.”
global CO2 emissions were down: Chris Mooney, Brady Dennis, and John Muyskens, “Global Emissions Plunged an Unprecedented 17 Percent during the Coronavirus Pandemic,” The Washington Post (May 19, 2020), washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/05/19/greenhouse-emissions-coronavirus/?arc404=true.
How long, exactly, is a complicated question: Individual carbon molecules are constantly cycling between atmosphere and oceans and between both of these and the world’s vegetation. However, CO2 levels in the atmosphere are governed by much slower processes. For a fuller discussion, see Doug Mackie, “CO2 Emissions Change Our Atmosphere for Centuries,” Skeptical Science (last updated July 5, 2015), skepticalscience.com/argument.php?p=1&t=77&&a=80.
the United States is responsible: All figures on aggregate emissions are taken from Hannah Ritchie, “Who Has Contributed Most to Global CO2 Emissions?” Our World in Data (Oct. 1, 2019), ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-CO2.
a hundred and one involved negative emissions: Sabine Fuss et al., “Betting on Negative Emissions,” Nature Climate Change, 4 (2014), 850–852.
All of the scenarios consistent with that goal: J. Rogelj et al., “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development,” in Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report, V. Masson-Delmotte et al., eds., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Oct. 8, 2018), ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SR15_Chapter2_Low_Res.pdf.
I used up my allotment: Calculating the emissions from air travel is complicated, and different groups offer different estimates for the same trip. I am relying on the flight carbon calculator at myclimate.org.
A recent study by Swiss researchers: Jean-Francois Bastin et al., “The Global Tree Restoration Potential,” Science, 364 (2019), 76–79.
Other researchers argued: Katarina Zimmer, “Researchers Find Flaws in High-Profile Study on Trees and Climate,” The Scientist (Oct. 17, 2019), the-scientist.com/news-opinion/researchers-find-flaws-in-high-profile-study-on-trees-and-climate--66587. DOI: 10.1126/science.aay7976.
was “still substantial”: Joseph W. Veldman et al., “Comment on ‘The Global Tree Restoration Potential,’ ” Science, 366 (2019), science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6463/eaay7976.
One entails cutting down mature trees: Ning Zeng, “Carbon Sequestration Via Wood Burial,” Carbon Balance and Management, 3 (2008), doi.org/10.1186/1750-0680-3-1.
Another scheme involves collecting crop residues: Stuart E. Strand and Gregory Benford, “Ocean Sequestration of Crop Residue Carbon: Recycling Fossil Fuel Carbon Back to Deep Sediments,” Environmental Science and Technology, 43 (2009), 1000–1007.
“Assuming it takes a crew of ten people”: Zeng, “Carbon Sequestration Via Wood Burial.”
a recent study by a team of German scientists: Jessica Strefler et al., “Potential and Costs of Carbon Dioxide Removal by Enhanced Weathering of Rocks,” Environmental Research Letters (March 5, 2018), dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c4.
“two steps backward in justice”: O. Táíwò, “Climate Colonialism and Large-Scale Land Acquisitions,” C2G (Sept. 26, 2019), c2g2.net/climate-colonialism-and-large-scale-land-acquisitions/.
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reached a height of twenty-five miles: Clive Oppenheimer, Eruptions that Shook the World (New York: Cambridge University, 2011), 299.
Ten thousand people were killed: Oppenheimer, Eruptions that Shook the World, 310.
“a body of liquid fire”: The account of the Rajah of Sanggar is cited in Oppenheimer, Eruptions that Shook the World, 299.
“It was impossible to see your hand”: This account, from the captain of a ship owned by the East India Company, is cited in Gillen D’Arcy Wood, Tambora: The Eruption that Changed the World (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, 2014), 21.
more than a hundred million tons of gas: South Dakota State University, “Undocumented Volcano Contributed to Extremely Cold Decade from 1810–1819,” ScienceDaily (Dec. 7, 2009), sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091205105844.htm.
“ruined figures, scarcely resembling men”: Cited in Oppenheimer, Eruptions that Shook the World, 314.
marching under the banner Bread or Blood: William K. Klingaman and Nicholas P. Klingaman, The Year Without Summer: 1816 and t
he Volcano That Darkened the World and Changed History (New York: St. Martin’s, 2013), 46.
some estimates put the figure in the millions: Wood, Tambora, 233.
“The very face of nature”: Cited in Klingaman and Klingaman, The Year Without Summer, 64.
On July 8, there was frost: Klingaman and Klingaman, The Year Without Summer, 104.
Chester Dewey, a professor at Williams College: Cited in Oppenheimer, Eruptions that Shook the World, 312.
“dangerous beyond belief”: James Rodger Fleming, Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control (New York: Columbia University, 2010), 2.
“a broad highway to hell”: This assessment comes from Tim Flannery, cited in Mark White, “The Crazy Climate Technofix,” SBS (May 27, 2016), sbs.com.au/topics/science/earth/feature/geoengineering-the-crazy-climate-technofix.
“unimaginably drastic”: Holly Jean Buck, After Geoengineering: Climate Tragedy, Repair, and Restoration (London: Verso, 2019), 3.
and also as “inevitable”: Dave Levitan, “Geoengineering Is Inevitable,” Gizmodo (Oct. 9, 2018), earther.gizmodo.com/geoengineering-is-inevitable-1829623031.
a brief downturn in global temperatures: “Global Effects of Mount Pinatubo,” NASA Earth Observatory (June 15, 2001), earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo.
In the tropics, ozone levels in the lower stratosphere: William B. Grant et al., “Aerosol-Associated Changes in Tropical Stratospheric Ozone Following the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo,” Journal of Geophysical Research, 99 (1994), 8197–8211.
“Man is unwittingly conducting”: President’s Science Advisory Committee, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment: Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel (Washington, D.C.: The White House, 1965), 126.