THE PAKISTANI-INDIAN COLD WAR
The real reason the ISI and the Pakistani army will only go so far in supporting the United States and ISAF efforts in Afghanistan has nothing to do with Afghanistan, and everything to do with their perception of security, and their need to ensure that the Indians do not gain advantage through Afghanistan. The Taliban have been used as an active extension of national will by elements of the ISI and Pakistani army, much like Hezbollah has been used by the Iranians as an extension of their national power. We must accept the Pakistani perception of their self-interest and security as being focused on its regional nuclear competitor, India, and work from there.
The primary focus of the U.S. diplomatic effort must be to reduce tensions between Pakistan and India. There are ways that the United States can participate and ensure regional stability by direct engagement and real reforms that would allow for a lowering of tensions between the two countries. America must create incentives for the Pakistani government (and the ISI and army) to stop its support of the Taliban. As long as the ISI and Pakistani army continue to provide material support to the Taliban, Afghanistan will not be secure. The Taliban is a tapestry of organizations and there is no single “point” within its structure that could be targeted to affect the whole of the structure, however, if you are able to cut off funding, logistics, and operational support, they will eventually fade in their effectiveness and be forced into a political process.
By extension of this logic, as long as the Taliban exists in fragments and are not fully controlled by the Pakistani government, there is the likelihood that they will continue to pursue their attacks against Pakistani targets and even pursue stealing nuclear weapons (as they and al Qaeda have stated as one of their operational objectives). It is clear that should the Taliban obtain a nuclear weapon and are able to find the expertise needed to move it and explode it, there is little doubt they would do so. The United States or an ISAF member nation would be the target of such a device.
THE PRICE OF FAILURE
The consequences of our failure in Afghanistan and throughout the region would be massive. It would take several things going catastrophically wrong—perhaps not right away, but within three to five years of our troops departing. The degrees of consequence will vary, but ultimately, the price of failure will be another 9/11 attack or series of attacks that will dwarf the original in destructive effect and loss of life by orders of magnitude.
First, the central government of Afghanistan could lose whatever tenuous control it has of the country. The army and national police would quickly fail and become completely ineffective in maintaining civil order in any form. While the Taliban may not be able to take control of the country, they will be strong enough to keep the entire country destabilized and ensure that their allies, such as al Qaeda, can resurge into the country.
Second, with the ability to move with impunity within Afghanistan and through the Swat Valley in northwest Pakistan, there would be a rapid increase of jihadist strength and audacity, and they would move on the Pakistani central government. If economic conditions remain poor in Pakistan, the chances of a successful coup or other radical and violent change of elected government would occur, and the Pakistani army would attempt to come to the rescue, as it has several times before, to stabilize the central government, and by extension, the entire country. In this case, in this post-U.S. occupation of Afghanistan, they would not have sufficient forces to take control. That is because the leadership ranks of the army, formerly filled by Punjabi officers, would not be able to sustain control even of the Punjabi because minorities now make up a larger proportion of the Pakistani army and do not have the same commitment to stability. The army, too, would fall into chaos.
The security measures around the Pakistani nuclear arsenal would continue to degrade, and eventually, one or more of the country’s nuclear weapons would be obtained by one of the radical elements. This weapon would be moved, via a network of conspirators, out of Pakistan and to one of a dozen potential targets. Yes, there would be massive efforts to find and contain these weapons, but if even one makes it to a Western target, there is a potential for huge property damage and thousands killed.
Many feel that this view is alarmist and that this scenario could never take place.
Nevertheless, many believed that the Shah of Iran would never fall and that Iran would always remain an ally of the United States. History proves that with the right leadership and circumstances, radical groups can be successful in taking control of nation states. There is no reason to believe that Pakistan is somehow immune from radical change because there are radical elements operating there—and operating, even now, with great effectiveness.
We must be vigilant and realistic, and craft a path to victory. If we don’t, we will, as a nation, suffer the consequences. We need to make the correct choices now to shape the future. These are costs that neither we, nor our children, should have to bear.
INDEX
The index that appeared in the print version of this title does not match the pages in your eBook. Please use the search function on your eReading device to search for terms of interest. For your reference, the terms that appear in the print index are listed below.
Abizaid, John Philip
Able Danger
9/11 attacks and
9/11 Commission and
Atta and
Brooklyn cell
Dark Heart compared with
data mining
initial involvement in
*** *** and
Schoonmaker and
Abrams, Creighton
Abu Ghraib prison
ADVON (advanced operations)
Afghanistan. See also specific places
heading into
how to win. See winning in Afghanistan
second voyage to
Afghan Militia Forces (AMF)
Afghan National Army
***** **** ***** ******* ********** ******** ***** ******** ** *** *** ** *********** ******* ******** ** ****** **** ******
al Qaeda
Able Danger. See Able Danger
Brooklyn cell
in Federally Administered Tribal Area
goals against
Nairobi embassy bombing
9/11 attacks (2001)
Operation Dark Heart. See Operation Dark Heart
Operation Winter Strike
in sub-Saharan Africa
Task Force 1099. See Task Force 1099
Task Force Stratus Ivy
videotape propaganda
World Trade Center bombing (1993)
Al Qaeda Hotel
Amanpour, Christiane
American Airlines Flight 11
AMF (Afghan Militia Forces)
Anderson, Mike
Apocalypse Now (movie)
****** ****** ****** *** **** **** ******
Army Rangers
by-name request
**** ***** ** *** **** ***** **** **** ******* ******
Army Reserve
Asadabad
asymmetric warfare
Atta, Mohamed
Ault, Colonel Robert
Austin, Lloyd James, III
Bagby, Byron S.
Bagram
Disney Boulevard
improvised explosive device
Russian Road
secret prison
Bagram Air Base
Bagram Collection Point (BCP)
Baldwin, Alec
******************** ************* ******** **
Barno, David
Operation Dark Heart
Operation Shadow Matrix
BDUs (battle-dress uniforms)
beards
Beatles, the
Beatty, Ned
Big Bad John (movie)
bin Laden, Osama
Black Hawk helicopters
black ops
Pakistan border
Black Taliban
Blackwater
Boardman, Robert
&n
bsp; Bolle sunglasses
Brady, Jim (alias)
Operation Dark Heart
Brando, Marlon
Bronze Star
awarding of
DIA controversy
Brooklyn cell
Broom, Kelly
Burton, Dan
Bush, George W.
C-130 Hercules airplanes
Cambone, Stephen
**** ****** *****
Casablanca (movie)
Caso, Russ
Cavalry, U.S.
cell phone, and PTT improvised raid
CENTCOM (Central Command)
Center for Advanced Defense Studies
Central Intelligence Agency. See CIA
CH-47 helicopters. See Chinook helicopters
“challenge” coins
Chamberlain, Joshua Lawrence
Charleston Air Force Base
Cheney, Dick
Chicken Street
childhood of Anthony Shaffer
Chinook helicopters
CIA (Central Intelligence Agency)
Asadabad sweep
Bagram secret prison
madrassah bombing
Operation Dark Heart and
Special Activities Division
Tenet and
training
cigars
Civil War
****** ********* ***** ******* ********** **** ******* ****** *** ******* ***
Clark Air Force Base
Clark, Jerry
“clean sheet” approach
Cold War
Cole, USS
“collateral damage,”
Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR)
Combined Forces Command (CFC)
Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force (CJSOTF), **** **, ******* *** ******** ***** **** ***** ** *** ******* **** ***
Combined Joint Task Force 180
Conner, Chuck
CONOP (Concept of Operations)
Conrad, Joseph
Ted Smith
CSAR (Combat Search and Rescue)
John Hays
Cushing, Peter
Dadullah Akhund, Mullah
Daniels, Brad
Dar es Salaam embassy bombing
Dark Heart. See Operation Dark Heart
“dark side of the force,”
data mining
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base
Dean, Jimmy
“Death Star” (Tactical Operations Center)
Deep Blue
Defense Intelligence Agency. See DIA
Defense Security Service
defilade position
Deh Chopan
Departed, The (movie)
Desert One Base
DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency)
Able Danger. See Able Danger
administrative leave
black ops
blue baggage
Bronze Star controversy
dismissal from
Fort Belvoir desk assignment
Inspector General investigation
intelligence information exchange
Mountain Viper. See Operation Mountain Viper
Operating Base Alpha
Operation Enduring Freedom
PTT improvised raid
Task Force Stratus Ivy
Disney Boulevard
Disney, Jason
DOCEX (Document Exploitation) Detachment
Dover Air Force Base
drinking
EA-6 Prowlers
EBOs (Effects Based Operations)
18th Airborne Corps
82nd Airborne Division
Eisenhower, Dwight D.
enablers
enemy combatants
enhanced interrogation methods
Ennis, Michael
Executive Order 12333
Fahim, Mohammad Qasim
FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area)
FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation)
Ghaffari and
INF Treaty negotiations
Kabul IED and
PTT improvised raid
17th November group
1st Corps Support Command
Fletcher, Jim
******* ******* *********** ********* ***** **** ******** *** ******
Fort Gordon
Fort Huachuca
Forward Operating Base (FOB) Alpha
******* ********* **** ***** ******* ******
Foster, Jack (alias)
Fox News Radio
Fulda Gap
******* ******
General Defense Intelligence Program
General Order No. 1
Ghaffari, Ali
Ghaffari, Arash
capture of
interrogation of. See interrogation, of Ghaffari
glossary of terms
Goodfellas (movie)
“good paper,”
Goshen Scout Reservation
******* **** ****
Greg Becker
Grant, Ulysses S.
Grenada
**** **** ***
Groundhog Day (movie)
Grubbs, Major
Guantanamo
Gulf War
Hadley, Stephen
Hank the Cowboy
Harding, Robert “Bob,”
Hawk, Michael
Heart of Darkness (Conrad)
Hekmatyar, Gulbuddin
assault on compound
Herat
Herrick, Rick
Hersh, Seymour
Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin (HIG)
Hezbollah
High Value Targets (HVTs)
Hindu Kush Mountains
Holland, Charles
Hoover, Randy “Big Red” (alias)
Operation Dark Heart
Operation Mountain Viper
Task Force 1099
Horse Soldiers (Stanton)
House Armed Services Committee
House Government Reform Committee
Medford Chris
Huachuca Cannon Run
Hughes, Pat
HUMINT (Human Intelligence Program)
HUMINT Support Detachment (HSD)
Huntington, Bill
Hussein, Saddam
Jacob Walker
HVTs (High Value Targets)
IDAD (Internal Defense and Development) program
IEDs (improvised explosive devices)
illegal drugs
improvised raid on PTT
India
INF treaty
Insomnia (movie)
Inspector General (IG)
intelligence
HUMINT
exchange of information
******* *** **** ***
training
International Red Cross
International Security Assistance Force. See ISAF
interrogation, of Ghaffari
final approach to
first meetings with
master list of questions
Springfield connection
strategy for
interrogation techniques
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
Iran
Ghaffari and
hostage crisis
******* ************* ***** ***** ******* *** ******
Iraq war
Ireland
ISAF (International Security Assistance Force)
Isler, Rod
Jedi Knights
“jingle trucks,”
John Wayne Pass
***** **** ***** ** *** **** ***** *
Joint Task Force 180. See Combined Joint Task Force 180
Jolie, Pierre
**** ****** ******* ********** ********* ******* ***
JSTARS (Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System)
Kabul
the boy and the bomb
Chicken Street
PTT improvised raid
Russian Road
Task Force Stratus Ivy
; Kabul International Airport
***** **** ****** *** ******* **** **** **** **** **** ***
Kandahar
Karzai, Hamid
Keller, Bill
Task Force 1099
Key Personnel Program
Khowst
“kill, capture, or spy,”
*********** ****** ******
Kirkland, John (alias)
departure from Afghanistan
Ghaffari and
PTT improvised raid
Knowles, Mary (alias)
Korean War
Lambert, Geoffrey
Leadership Targeting Cell (LTC)
Libby, Lewis “Scooter,”
Liberia
Libya
Lippold, Kirk
LIWA (Land Information Warfare Activity)
logistical footprint, in Afghanistan
Chris Boston
Loudermilk, Tim
Bronze Star ceremony
Ghaffari and
intelligence information exchange
Operation Dark Heart
Taliban videotape
“Love My Way” (song)
LTC (Leadership Targeting Cell)
M-4A3 rifles
M-11 rifles
MacArthur, Douglas
Massoud, Ahmad Shah
McChrystal, Stanley
background of
Task Force 1099
McFarlane, Ben
McMillan, Kent
Merchant of Venice (Shakespeare)
MH-6 Little Bird helicopters
Miami Vice (TV show)
MIDB (Military Intelligence Database)
Bill Wilson
Bronze Star of
Ghaffari and
intelligence information exchange
Operation Dark Heart
Task Force 180
Mr. Pink
**** ********* ******* ***
Mr. White
mobile phone, and PTT improvised raid
Susan Cane
morale calls
Moretti, Ray (alias)
Operation Mountain Viper
********* *** **** ******
Mountain Viper. See Operation Mountain Viper
Phil Trent
Nairobi embassy bombing
National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. See 9/11 Commission
National Guard
National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA)
National Security Agency. See NSA
National Security Council (NSC)
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
Navy SEALs
New York City
*** ******* ******* ****** *** *** *** *** *** ********* **** ******* **** **** **** ******* ***
night letters
“Night Stalkers” (160th Special Operations Aviation-Regiment)
NIMA (National Imagery and Mapping Agency)
9/11 attacks (2001)
9/11 Commission
9/11 Report
Nixon, James
North Carolina National Guard
Northern Alliance
Operation Dark Heart Page 30