216. TNA, PREM 3/193/6A, JIC Report, ‘Probabilities of a German Collapse’, 9 Sept 1943, encl. ‘Annex: Similarities between Germany’s Situation in August 1918 and August 1943’, 6.
217. TNA, AIR 8/1167, JIC Report, ‘Effects of Bombing Offensive on German War Effort’, 12 Nov 1943, Annex by PWE and AI, ‘Allied Air Attacks and German Morale’, 1, 3, 6–8; PREM 3/193/6A, Desmond Morton to Churchill, 21 Jan 1944.
218. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 67, ‘Plan for the Completion of the Combined Bomber Offensive’, 5 Mar 1944, Annex, ‘Prospect for Ending War by Air Attack against German Morale’, 1.
219. LC, Arnold papers, Reel 193, ‘Germany’s War Potential: An Appraisal by the Committee of Historians for the Commanding General of the Army Air Forces’, Dec 1943, 1, 2, 20–23.
220. FDRL, Map Room Files, Box 73, OSS Bulletin, 11 Mar 1944, 1. For a general discussion of American opinion see Richard Overy, ‘ “The Weak Link?”: The Perception of the German Working Class by RAF Bomber Command, 1940–1945’, Labour History Review, 77 (2012), 20–21; Katz, Foreign Intelligence, 63–70.
221. RAFM, Bottomley papers, AC 71/2/53, Lecture on Bombing, Spring 1944, 7.
222. USAFA, MacDonald papers, Box 8, Folder 8, ‘Extracts from News Digest, 30 March 1944’, Internal Conditions, ‘The Air Offensive’, 1.
223. LC, Arnold papers, Reel 193, ‘Germany’s War Potential’, 2.
224. LC, Doolittle papers, Box 19, Doolittle to all Eighth Air Force Commanders, 19 Jan 1944, 1.
225. LC, Eaker papers, Box I.19, Lovett to Arnold, 19 Jun 1943, 2.
226. USAFA, Hansell papers, Ser III, Box 1, Folder 2, ‘Salient Features of Various Plans: AWPD-1’, 3.
227. Stephen McFarland, Wesley Newton, To Command the Sky: The Battle for Air Superiority over Germany, 1942–1944 (Washington, DC: 1991), 103–4.
228. Details from John F. Guilmartin, ‘The Aircraft that Decided World War II: Aeronautical Engineering and Grand Strategy, 1933–1945’, 44th Harmon Memorial Lecture (Colorado Springs, CO: 2001), 16–18, 20–23; Richard G. Davis, Carl A. Spaatz and the Air War in Europe (Washington, DC: 1993), 361–4.
229. FDRL, President’s Secretary’s Files, Box 82, Roosevelt to Arnold, 10 Nov 1942; Arnold to Roosevelt, 12 Nov 1942.
230. McFarland, Newton, To Command the Sky, 138–40.
231. Freeman, The Mighty Eighth, 148, 183–4, 202–3, 206–7.
232. AFHRA, Disc A5835, Eighth Air Force Tactical Development, 1942–1945, 1; McFarland, Newton, To Command the Sky, 106, 112.
233. Ibid., 114–15, 145; Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 302; Parton, ‘Air Force Spoken Here’, 273–6, 288.
234. David R. Mets, Master of Airpower: General Carl A. Spaatz (Novato, CA: 1998), 179–80.
235. Parton, ‘Air Force Spoken Here’, 336–9; Mets, Master of Airpower, 180–81.
236. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 84, Spaatz to Doolittle, 26 Jan 1944; Box 143, Spaatz to Doolittle, 28 Jan 1944.
237. LC, Doolittle papers, Box 19, Doolittle to Spaatz, 11 Mar 1944; Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 299–300.
238. AFHRA, Disc A1722, Army Air Forces Evaluation Board, Eighth Air Force, ‘Tactical Development August 1942–May 1945’, 50.
239. Ibid., 50–55; Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 358–63; McFarland, Newton, To Command the Sky, 141, 164–6.
240. IWM, MD, vol 61/5139, minutes of GL meeting, 28 Aug 1943.
241. Von Below, At Hitler’s Side, 176–7.
242. McFarland, Newton, To Command the Sky, 118–20; Air Ministry, The Rise and Fall of the German Air Force 1933–1945 (London: 1983), 239, 297–8.
243. Lt. Gen. Josef Schmid, ‘German Dayfighting in the Defense of the Reich 15 Sept 1943 to the End of the War’, in David Isby (ed), Fighting the Bombers: The Luftwaffe’s Struggle against the Allied Bomber Offensive (London: 2003), 133–40; Josef Schmid, ‘German Nightfighting from June 1943 to May 1945’, in ibid., 88–9, 95–7; Westermann, Flak, 235–6.
244. On German intelligence appreciation of Allied operations see TsAMO, f.500, o.957971, d.450, Führungsstab 1c, ‘Einzelnachrichten des 1c Dienstes West der Luftwaffe’, 29 Apr 1944; f.500, o.957971, d.448, ‘Einzelnachrichten des 1c Dienstes West: Britische Nachteinsatz’, 6 May 1944; f.500, o.957971, d.433, ‘Einzelnachrichten des 1c Dienstes West’, 16 June 1944.
245. Price, Instruments of Darkness, 175–8, 184–6, 195–6, 205–6. On ‘Carpet’ and countermeasures see RAFM, Saundby papers, AC 72/12, Box 7, ‘War in the Ether’, 45–6.
246. Westermann, Flak, 234–5.
247. Ibid., 238–41.
248. BA-MA, RL2 IV/101, Vorstudien zur Luftkriegsgeschichte, Heft 8, 32–3; Air Ministry, Rise and Fall of the German Air Force, 283–5.
249. Westermann, Flak, 247–9.
250. BA-B, RL3/237, GL C-Amt, Studie 1036; Lutz Budrass, Flugzeugindustrie und Luftrüstung in Deutschland 1918–1945 (Düsseldorf: 1998), 868–9; Horst Boog, ‘Strategischer Luftkrieg in Europa 1943–1944’, in Horst Boog et al., Das Deutsche Reich und der Zweite Weltkrieg: Band 7: Das Deutsche Reich in der Defensive (Stuttgart: 2001), 309–11.
251. IWM, EDS AL/1746, Karl-Otto Saur interrogation, 10 Aug 1945, 6.
252. IWM, MD, vol 56, 2701-13, memorandum by Milch, ‘Der Jägerstab’.
253. Calculated from Budrass, Flugzeugindustrie und Luftrüstung, 836. Serviceability rates in Webster, Frankland, Strategic Air Offensive, vol 4, 501.
254. McFarland, Newton, To Command the Sky, 135; Schmid, ‘German Dayfighting’, 147.
255. AFHRA, Disc A5835, Tactical Development, 99. Elementary training declined from 100 hours in 1942 to 70 in 1943 and 52 in 1944; Fighter School hours declined from 60 to 40; OTU hours were 50 in 1942, 16–18 in 1943, 20 in 1944.
256. Schmid, ‘German Dayfighting’, 140–42.
257. Adolf Galland, The First and the Last (London: 1955), 189, 200–01.
258. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 143, Anderson to Spaatz, 28 Feb 1944, 2.
259. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 94, statistics on total tonnage dropped by USAAF and RAF, Jan 1944 to May 1944.
260. TNA, AIR 14/739A, ‘Conduct of Strategic Bomber Offensive before Preparatory Stage of “Overlord” ’, 17 Jan 1944, 4–5.
261. Ibid., HQ Bomber Command, Air Intelligence, ‘Progress of RAF Bomber Offensive against German Industry’, 19 Feb 1944; Harris to Balfour, 2 Mar 1944.
262. CCO, Denis Richards Archive, File IV/Folder B, Portal to Sinclair, 29 Jan 1944.
263. W. A. Jacobs, ‘The British Strategic Air Offensive against Germany in World War, II’, in R. Cargill Hall (ed), Case Studies in Strategic Bombardment (Washington, DC: 1998), 139–40.
264. TNA, FO 935/126, REDept, ‘Preliminary Attack Assessment, Berlin’, 23 Mar 1944, 1, 3.
265. Webster, Frankland, Strategic Air Offensive, vol 2, 193.
266. Williamson Murray, Luftwaffe: Strategy for Defeat 1933–1945 (London: 1985), 198–9.
267. Stephen McFarland, Wesley Newton, ‘The American Strategic Air Offensive against Germany in World War II’, in R. Cargill Hall (ed), Case Studies in Strategic Bombardment (Washington, DC: 1998), 214–16; Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 322–6.
268. UEA, Zuckerman Archive, SZ/BBSU/101, ‘Analysis of M.E.W. Estimates of German War Production’ [n.d.], 10.
269. LC Spaatz papers, Box 68, HQ USSTAF, ‘The Allied Air Offensive against Germany and Principal Criticisms by the Enemy Leaders’, June 1945, Table C, Interrogation of Hermann Göring, 1 June 1945.
270. TNA, AIR 10/3873, BBSU, ‘German Experience in the Underground Transfer of War Industries’, 12.
271. Budrass, Flugzeugindustrie und Luftrüstung, 868; Boog, ‘Strategischer Luftkrieg’ 101–3.
272. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 67, Committee of Experts, ‘Plan for the Completion of the Combined Bomber Offensive’, 5 Mar 1944, 2–4; Katz, Foreign Intelligence, 19–20; F. H. Hinsley et al., British Intelligence in the Second World War (London: 1988), vol 3, pt ii, 497–9.
273. Rostow, Pre-Invasion Bombing Strategy, 53–5.
274. Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 398–400
; Rostow, Pre-Invasion Bombing Strategy, 68.
275. Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 370–79; Murray, Luftwaffe, 215.
276. LC, Eaker papers, Box I.35, ‘Decline of the GAF: Report from Captured Personnel’, forwarded to Military Intelligence Division, 15 Mar 1945, 6.
277. Heinz Knocke, I Flew for the Führer (London: 1953), 148–9.
278. Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 379–81.
279. TsAMO, f.500, o.957971, d.448, ‘Einzelnachrichten des 1c Dienstes West der Luftwaffe’, 6 May 1944, 12.
280. Ian McLachlan, Russell Zorn, Eighth Air Force Bomber Stories (Yeovil: 1991), 110–11.
281. AFHRA, Disc A1722, Eighth Air Force, ‘Tactical Development August 1942–May 1945’, 99.
282. Boog, ‘Strategischer Luftkrieg’, 110; Webster, Frankland, Strategic Air Offensive, vol 4, 495; ‘Nightfighter Direction: Interrogation of Major G. S. Sandmann’, in Isby (ed), Fighting the Bombers, 211.
283. Von Rohden, ‘Reich Air Defense’, in Isby (ed), Fighting the Bombers, 38.
284. USAFA, MacDonald papers, Ser V, Box 12, Folder 1, JIC Report, ‘German Strategy and Capacity to Resist’, 14 Aug 1944, 1.
285. AHB, Translations, vol 1, VII/7, 8th Abteilung report, 22 Sept 1944, ‘A Forecast of Air Developments in 1945’, 1.
286. IWM, MD, vol 53, 706–11, Report by Chief of German Air Force Operations Staff (Karl Koller), ‘Erforderliche Mindeststärke der fliegenden Verbände der deutschen Luftwaffe zur Behauptung des mitteleuropäischen Raumes’, 19 May 1944.
287. Calculated from Webster, Frankland, Strategic Air Offensive, vol 4, 497.
288. LC, Eaker papers, Box I.35, ‘Decline of the G.A.F.’, 6: ‘Neither in the East nor South did 50, 80, or 100 of our aircraft ever fly in a body and carry out any major operation. In Russia they flew in “Rotten” of two or “Schwärme” of four … our fighter arm had to conduct the fight in a strength to which it was never accustomed.’
289. Sönke Neitzel, Tapping Hitler’s Generals: Transcripts of Secret Conversations, 1942–1945 (Barnsley: 2007), 114–15, recording of Gen. Bernhard Ramcke, 16 Oct 1944.
290. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 134, US Military Intelligence Service, HQ Air P/w, Interrogation of Hermann Göring, 1 Jun 1945, 2.
291. Dik Daso, Hap Arnold and the Evolution of American Airpower (Washington, DC: 2000), esp 152–68; on the problems of adjusting to defensive warfare see Boog, ‘Strategischer Luftkrieg’, 249–58.
292. AHB, Translations, VII/ VII, ‘A Forecast of Air Developments in 1945’, 2–3.
293. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 143, Spaatz to Arnold, 30 Sept 1944.
294. TNA, AIR 14/739A, Harris to Coryton (Air Ministry), 19 July 1944; CCO, Portal papers, Folder 5, Portal to Churchill, 5 Aug 1944.
295. Mark Connelly, ‘The British People, the Press and the Strategic Air Campaign against Germany, 1939–1945’, Contemporary British History, 16 (2002), 54–5.
296. Hugh Thomas, John Strachey (London: 1973), 219.
297. TNA, PREM 3/193/6A, JIC Report, ‘German Strategy and Capacity to Resist’, 16 Oct 1944.
298. AHB, Translations, VII/VII, ‘A Forecast of Air Developments’; VII/IX, ‘War Appreciation No. 17’, 15 Jan 1945, 8.
299. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 143, Spaatz to Arnold, 22 July 1944; Spaatz to Arnold, 3 Sept 1944. See too JIC warnings in Hinsley et al., British Intelligence in the Second World War, vol 3, pt ii, 595–9.
300. LC, Doolittle papers, Box 18, Doolittle to Arnold, 2 Aug 1944; Box 19, Doolittle to Spaatz, 18 Oct 1944.
301. NARA, RG 107, Lovett papers, Box 139, Memorandum for Lovett from HQ Army Service Forces, encl. ‘Periodic Report of Readiness for Chemical Warfare, 1 January 1945’, 2.
302. Robert Harris, Jeremy Paxman, A Higher Form of Killing: The Secret Story of Gas and Germ Warfare (London: 1982), 110–16.
303. TNA, PREM 3/193/6A, HQ AF, Algiers to the War Office, 30 Oct 1943 (initialled by Churchill, 1 Nov 1943).
304. NARA, RG 218, Box 3, ‘Analysis of Foreign Weapons Division’, report for the Commanding General, Army Service Forces, 26 Oct 1943, forwarded to Arnold. On German plans the best account is Rolf-Dieter Müller, ‘Albert Speer und die Rüstungspolitik im Totalen Krieg 1942–45’, in Bernhard Kroener, Rolf-Dieter Müller, Hans Umbreit, DRZW: Band 5/2: Organisation und Mobilisierung des Deutschen Machtbereichs 1942–1944/45 (Stuttgart: 1999), 713–16.
305. NARA, RG 218, Box 19, memorandum for the Gas Warfare Subcommittee, HQ USAAF, 21 Jan 1944, 3; Maj. Gen. William Porter (Chief, Chemical Warfare Service) to JCS, ‘Present Status of Development of Toxic Gases’, 6 Dec 1943.
306. RAFM, Bottomley papers, AC 71/2/29, War Cabinet Inter-Service Committee on Chemical Warfare, Note by the Air Staff, 23 Jan 1944, 2–3, and Annex 1, ‘Appreciation on Strategic Gas Effort’, 5.
307. Ibid., AC 71/2/75, Memorandum by Norman Bottomley, ‘Possibility of the Use of Gas by the Germans to Counter “Overlord” ’, 1–3.
308. CCAC, Churchill papers, CHAR D.217/4, Churchill to Ismay for the CoS, 6 July 1944; Hinsley et al., British Intelligence in the Second World War, vol 3, pt ii, 576–80.
309. Müller, ‘Albert Speer und die Rütungspolitik’, 714–15.
310. CCAC, BUFT 3/51, ‘Plan for Retaliatory Gas Attack on Germany’; NARA, RG 107, Box 139, HQ Army Service Forces memorandum, ‘Co-Ordinated Anglo-American Chemical Warfare Procurement and Supply Program’, 10 Mar 1945, 2–3.
311. NARA, RG 218, Box 1, Report for the JCS, 6 Jan 1944, 1.
312. Details in RAFM, Bottomley papers, B2320, Inter-Service Sub-Committee on Biological Warfare, 22 Dec 1945, App A, ‘Biological Warfare: Report to the Secretary of War’, 1–5; NARA, RG 218, Box 1, JCS paper, 20 Dec 1943, ‘Implications of Recent Intelligence Regarding Alleged German Secret Weapons’.
313. NARA, RG 218, Box 1, ‘Defensive Measures against Bacteriological Warfare’, 25 May 1944; Memorandum for Col. Newsome from General Staff, Operations Division, 10 Apr 1944 (shown to Gen. Marshall and forwarded to Field Marshal John Dill).
314. Müller, ‘Albert Speer und die Rüstungspolitik’, 720–26.
315. See e.g. USAFA, Hansell papers, Ser III, Box 1, Folder 1, ‘Fairchild Lecture’, 1 Dec 1964, 18–24.
316. Figures from Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, App 8; Mets, Master of Airpower, 251; Henry Probert, Bomber Harris: His Life and Times (London: 2006), 305–6.
317. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 143, Spaatz to Arnold, 30 Sept 1944.
318. Mets, Master of Airpower, 258–9; Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 488–90.
319. CCAC, BUFT 3/43, memorandum by Sq. Ldr. John Strachey (BOps), 13 Aug 1944; Draft operation, ‘Thunderclap’, 15 Aug 1944; Bufton memorandum, 2 Aug 1944, ‘Operation Thunderclap’.
320. Directives in Webster, Frankland, Strategic Air Offensive, vol 4, 174–6; directive from Bottomley to Harris, 13 Oct 1944. See too Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 494–5.
321. Solly Zuckerman, From Apes to Warlords: The Autobiography of Solly Zuckerman, 1904–1946 (London: 1978), 301–4; Hugh Melinsky, Forming the Pathfinders: The Career of Air Vice-Marshal Sydney Bufton (Stroud: 2010), 130–33.
322. Webster, Frankland, Strategic Air Offensive, vol 4, 177–9, ‘1st November 1944: Directive No. 2 for the Strategic Air Forces in Europe’.
323. ‘Expert’ in CCAC, BUFT 3/51, Harris to Portal, 12 Dec 1944; Melinsky, Forming the Pathfinders, 135. See too CamUL, Andrew Boyle papers, Add 9429/1B, Harris to Boyle, 13 June 1979: ‘He [Bufton] was a prime example in my view of a Junior Officer in the Air Ministry imagining he could run the Command.’
324. CCAC, BUFT 3/51, Harris to Portal, 12 Dec 1944. See the full discussion of the correspondence in Melinsky, Forming the Pathfinders, 133–5; Probert, Bomber Harris, 309–11.
325. USSBS, ‘Oil Division: Final Report’, Washington, DC, 25 Aug 1945, fig 7.
326. LC, Spaatz papers, Box 76, ‘Conference on Bombing Accuracy’, HQ USSTAF, 22–23 Mar 1945; Box 80, Hugh Odishaw, ‘Radar Bombing in the Eighth Air Force’, 94. See too Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 503–8.
327. Davis, Carl A. Spa
atz, 508.
328. AHB, Translations, VII/23, GAF Air Historical Branch, ‘Some Effects of the Allied Air Offensive on German Economic Life’, 7 Dec 1944, 1–2; Davis, Carl A. Spaatz, 510–12. The best account is Alfred Mierzejewski, The Collapse of the German War Economy: Allied Air Power and the German National Railway (Chapel Hill, NC: 1988), 191, Table A3.
329. Mierzejewski, Collapse of the German War Economy, 193, Table A5.
330. AHB, Translations, VII/38, Speer to Field Marshal Keitel, ‘Report on the Effects of Allied Air Activity against the Ruhr’, 7 Nov 1944.
331. AFHRA, 520.056-188, Statistical Summary Eighth Air Force Operations: Aircraft Loss Rates on Combat Operations.
332. Fighter losses in Murray, Luftwaffe, 364; jet production in Boog, ‘Strategischer Luftkrieg’, 307–8.
333. CCAC, BUFT 3/51, Bufton to Bottomley, 9 June 1945; RAFM, Saundby papers, AC 72/12, Box 7, ‘War in the Ether’, App B, ‘Bomber Command Loss Rate on German Targets’.
334. Schmid, ‘German Nightfighting’, in Isby (ed), Fighting the Bombers, 105–6.
335. Details in RAFM, Saundby papers, AC 72/12, Box 7, ‘War in the Ether’, Oct 1945, 53–8 and App F; Saundby (HQ Bomber Command) to all group commanders, 13 Oct 1944 on keeping radar silence. See too Bill Gunston, Night Fighters: A Development and Combat History (Cambridge: 1976), 125–7; Werner Held, Holger Nauroth, Die deutsche Nachtjagd (Stuttgart: 1992), 222–30.
336. Von Below, At Hitler’s Side, 220–21.
337. LC, Eaker papers, Box I.35, ‘Decline of the G.A.F.’, 12.
338. Galland, First and Last, 246–9, 251–2, 283–5; LC, Spaatz papers, Box 68, Memorandum by George MacDonald (G-2, HQ USSTAF), ‘The Allied Air Offensive against Germany and Principal Criticisms by Enemy Leaders’, Table F, interrogation of Gen. Galland, 16 May 1945.
339. CCAC, BUFT 3/51, Morley (BOps 2) to SHAEF A-3, 21 Jan 1945.
340. USAFA, MacDonald papers, Ser V, Box 12, Folder 1, JIC SHAEF, ‘Bombing Policy in Germany’, 6 Oct 1944.
341. NARA, RG 107, Box 28, Lovett to Arnold, 9 Jan 1945, 2–3.
342. RAFM, Harris papers, Misc. Box A, Folder 4, ‘One Hundred Towns of Leading Economic Importance’.
The Bombing War: Europe 1939–1945 Page 103