by Doug Kelly
Into The Darkness
A novel by
Doug Kelly
Copyright © 2013 Doug Kelly
This is an original work of fiction by Doug Kelly, who holds the sole rights to all the characters and concepts herein. Any similarity to real persons, living or dead, is coincidental and not intended by the author.
All rights reserved.
No part of this novel may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the author.
Edited by Carol Madding
To my children.
They inspire me in all aspects of my life.
PREFACE
The physical and social fabric of America is sustained by a delicate system of systems. This system of systems is a complex and dynamic network of interdependent technological infrastructures whose harmonious functioning enables a myriad of activity and informational flow that supports the orderly conduct of a civil society in our highly technologically advanced country. These infrastructures are vulnerable to a variety of threats. Some of these threats are acts of nature and some are manmade.
The subject of this novel is one specific threat, that imposed by an act of nature, and what could happen to civilization in its aftermath. Specifically, an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) generated by an enormous coronal mass ejection (CME).
In the foreword to this novel, I will define this threat, explain what we know about it, describe events that have already occurred, and provide my conclusion to its effect on a civilized and technologically advanced society that is not prepared.
Coronal Mass Ejection
Inherently, hot objects tend to expand and the sun is an extremely hot object. However, the sun is also large and dense, which provides for a strong gravitational pull. Additionally, the sun also has an enormous magnetic field around it and the rotation of the sun perpetuates this magnetic field. The combination of these forces can cause the sun's surface to change in dramatic and violent ways.
The currents of gas cause solar magnetic field lines to twist. This can prevent hotter gases in the sun's core from rising to the surface, in certain locations, creating sunspots. Sunspots appear darker and are cooler than the rest of the sun's surface. Hot gas is trapped beneath sunspots and it exerts pressure on the magnetic field lines that are preventing the gas from rising. This pressure twists the magnetic field lines into tighter coils. Sometimes the pressure continues to build until the magnetic field lines snap out suddenly, ejecting billions of tons of particles out into space.
This type of solar event can cause particularly strong aurorae in large regions around Earth's magnetic poles. In the northern hemisphere, these are known as the northern lights, and in the southern hemisphere, these are referred to as the southern lights. The northern and southern lights are observable examples of how a CME can affect the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The colorful lights result from subatomic particles moving at incredible speed, which causes gases such as oxygen and nitrogen to ionize. As the atoms in the gases recombine with electrons, they emit light. This mainly happens where the Earth's magnetic field lines converge at the planet's magnetic poles. However, a massive CME can have more sinister effects.
When the ejection is directed towards Earth, and reaches it, the shock wave of the ejected plasma causes a geomagnetic storm that may disrupt the Earth's magnetosphere, compressing it on the day side and extending the night side magnetic tail. A magnetic shockwave that extends billions of miles out into space can be produced by a CME. When the magnetosphere reconnects on the night side, it releases terawatts of power directed back toward the Earth's upper atmosphere. Since magnetic fields can induce electricity, any conductor could become an inductor. A powerful CME could induce electricity in large, powerful conductors. Therefore, this type of event could overload electrical systems and cause massive damage. Near solar maxima, the sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima there is about one CME every five days.
Electromagnetic Pulse
A CME is the natural precursor to an EMP. An EMP is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. Once this super energetic cloud of particles hits the upper atmosphere, it knocks a huge amount of electrons from the gas molecules present at very high altitude. These super charged electrons then cascade down in a chain reaction, multiplying on their way down through the atmosphere. The atmosphere becomes denser at lower altitudes providing for more air molecules to interact with on the way down, therefore facilitating the chain reaction. The net result of this cascade of electrons is to produce a huge amount of electrical current in the air and in the ground. As a result, an EMP can cause serious problems for both satellites and electrical systems on Earth.
The EMP would also induce electricity in any large conductor. That includes power transformers and the power grid itself. The power grid in North America operates at near capacity. Therefore, it would not be able to tolerate the increased electrical load from a solar super storm. Once this super high current contacts manmade structures, from power transmission lines to computer chips, the massive current will overpower the circuits, in particular anything with micro circuitry. Microchips are very sensitive to electrical current and only need a small electrostatic shock to be damaged. This will result in massive and long lasting power outages.
There are more than 200,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines in the United States looping from electric grid to electric grid. These long transmission lines are natural collectors of the atmospheric energy delivered by a CME. Unfortunately, these long transmission lines are also quite efficient at feeding this energy to transformers. NASA acknowledges a solar EMP could induce electricity at ground level that could destroy transformers in power grids.
A transformer takes very high voltage and reduces it to a lower voltage, accomplishing this task by passing the electricity through coiled copper wire. The wire coils get very warm when transforming electricity. When hit by excessive voltage, for instance during the resulting EMP from a CME, the coils get too hot and begin to melt. The coolant, which is a type of oil, then catches fire and destroys the transformer.
Very large transformers can take up to three years to replace and they are no longer built in the United States. Small telephone pole mounted transformers will also sustain major damage. In 1992, after Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida, every spare small transformer in North America was used to restore power in South Florida. This was followed by a one-year worldwide shortage of small transformers. The world is distressingly unprepared to restore even a tiny portion of the world’s electric supply following a massive solar EMP.
It Has Already Happened
The real long lasting danger comes from the storm’s effect on modern technology. The flurry of magnetic activity and induced electric currents has the potential to severely disrupt and destroy power grids, satellites, communication networks, or anything that uses electricity. When the sun aimed a CME at Earth in 1989, the resulting solar storm collapsed the Hydro Québec power grid and six million people were without power. But the 1989 storm is nothing compared to the geomagnetic storm of 1859, the largest in recorded history.
CMEs have affected the Earth in the past. We were not as technologically advanced, nor did we depend upon technology as heavily the last time a massive CME collided with Earth. In 1859, an enormous CME caused massive magnetic fluctuations in the Earth's magnetosphere. People living as far south as Cuba and Jamaica witnessed the northern lights. Compasses and telegraph systems failed. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event, was the most powerful solar storm ever recorded. It produced the largest known solar flare, which was observed and recorded by amateur astronomer Richard C. Carrington. F
rom August 28, 1859, until September 2, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed during this event.
On the morning of September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington began to sketch a cluster of enormous dark spots appearing on the surface of the sun. Just before noon on September 1, the British astronomer observed the largest flare, after which a major CME traveled directly toward Earth. Carrington spotted what he described as "two patches of intensely bright and white light" erupting from the sunspots. Five minutes later, the fireballs vanished but, within hours, their impact would be felt across the globe. It only took seventeen hours to arrive from its journey. Such a journey normally takes three to four days.
That night, telegraph communications around the world began to fail; there were reports of sparks showering from telegraph machines, shocking operators and setting papers ablaze. All over the planet colorful auroras illuminated the nighttime skies, glowing so brightly that birds began to chirp and laborers started their daily chores, believing the sun had begun rising. Those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light. Some thought the end of the world was at hand, but Carrington's naked eyes had spotted the true cause. It was a massive CME with the energy of billions of atomic bombs.
Telegraph lines across North America were rendered inoperable on the night of August 28 as the first of two successive solar storms struck. A telegraph manager in Pittsburgh reported that the resulting currents flowing through the wires were so powerful that platinum contacts were in danger of melting and "streams of fire" were pouring forth from the circuits. In Washington, D.C., a telegraph operator was severely shocked as his forehead grazed a ground wire. According to a witness, an arc of fire jumped from his head to the telegraphic equipment. Some telegraph stations reported that telegraph paper caught fire.
On the morning of September 2, the mayhem resulting from the solar storm created even more chaos for telegraph operators. American Telegraph Company employees discovered the atmosphere was so charged that operators could unplug their batteries and still transmit messages using only the auroral current. Later that morning, the magnetic disturbance abated sufficiently for stations to reconnect their batteries, but transmissions were still affected.
On September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported:
“Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between midnight and one o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance.”
When telegraphs did come back on line, many were filled with vivid accounts of the celestial light show that had been witnessed the night before. The sky was so crimson that many who saw it believed that neighboring locales were on fire. Newspapers from France to Australia featured glowing descriptions of brilliant auroras that had turned night into day. One eyewitness account from a woman on Sullivan's Island, in South Carolina, ran in the Charleston Mercury:
“The eastern sky appeared of a blood red color. It seemed brightest exactly in the east, as though the full moon, or rather the sun, were about to rise. It extended almost to the zenith. The whole island was illuminated. The sea reflected the phenomenon, and no one could look at it without thinking of the passage in the Bible, which says, ‘the sea was turned to blood.' The shells on the beach, reflecting light, resembled coals of fire.”
Ice core samples have determined that the Carrington Event was bigger than any other solar storm in the last 500 years. According to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences, the impact of a similar storm today could cause "extensive social and economic disruptions" due to its impact on power grids, satellite communications, and GPS systems. The potential price tag is between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. Further, the International Journal of Research and Applications reports there is a one in eight chance that a “massive solar storm” will occur within the next decade.
Today, we depend much more heavily upon electronics and electricity than we did in 1859. If a similar solar super storm were to hit us now, our electronic infrastructure would be devastated. A repeat of the Carrington Event in today’s far more interconnected and technologically dependent world would be apocalyptic. Cascading failures could quickly shut power down to millions of people in a matter of minutes. Communication networks would fail and GPS satellites, upon which the entire air traffic system relies, would also shut down.
The Shield Act
The Secure High voltage Infrastructure for Electricity from Lethal Damage Act (SHIELD Act, HR 668), aims to protect America’s electric grid against an EMP event. There are essentially only two events that could cause significant EMP damage: 1) a CME or 2) a nuclear attack. The SHIELD Act attempts to protect against these two events by hardening facilities and by having replacement parts available. Obviously, a massive CME could cause severe damage to America’s electric grid. Add to that the threat of a nuclear attack by a rogue state or terrorist organization looking to cause extreme damage with only one nuclear weapon. If a nuclear weapon was detonated at the proper height, about 300 miles altitude above the Midwest, it would cause widespread EMP damage across a large part of the nation. Because our electric systems are interdependent, it could bring virtually the entire electric grid down.
You can imagine what these natural or nuclear phenomena could do to our daily way of life. Imagine a world without technology. Food and medicine would spoil quickly without refrigerators, running water would stop as electric pumps failed, supply routes for food, gas, and other essential items would shut down, and our way of life would fundamentally change. This could truly be devastating to our technologically advanced society.
CONCLUSION
The increasingly pervasive use of and dependence on sensitive electronic equipment and an aging power grid represents the greatest source of vulnerability by a threat-sized EMP, solar or otherwise. This is because electronics are used to control, communicate, compute, store, manage, and implement nearly every aspect of our civilized society. When an enormous CME creates an EMP in Earth’s atmosphere it will have the capability to produce widespread and long lasting disruption and damage to the critical infrastructures that support the fabric of our technological society. Because of the ubiquitous dependence of our society on the electrical power system and its vulnerability to an EMP coupled with the EMP’s particular damage mechanisms, it creates the possibility of long-term catastrophic consequences.
An EMP may seriously degrade or shut down a large part of the electric power grid in a geographic area of EMP exposure almost instantaneously. There is also a possibility of functional collapse of grids beyond the exposed area as electrical effects propagate from one region to another. The time required for full recovery of service would depend on both the disruption and damage to the electrical power infrastructure and to other national infrastructures. Larger affected areas and stronger EMP field strengths will prolong the recovery time, if recovery is possible.
Some critical electrical power infrastructure components are not manufactured in the United States, and their acquisition ordinarily requires up to a year of lead-time in routine circumstances. Damage to, or loss of, these components could leave significant parts of the electrical infrastructure out of service for periods measured in months to years. There is a point in time at which the sho
rtage or exhaustion of essential backup systems, including emergency power supplies, batteries, standby fuel supplies, communications, and manpower resources, leads to a continuing degradation of critical infrastructures for a prolonged period of time. Electrical power is necessary to support other critical infrastructures, including supply and distribution of water, food, fuel, communications, transport, financial transactions, emergency services, and government services.
Should significant parts of the electrical power infrastructure be lost for any substantial period of time, the consequences are likely to be catastrophic, and many people may ultimately die for lack of the basic elements necessary to sustain life in dense urban and suburban communities. The recovery plans for the individual infrastructures currently in place assume, at worst, limited setbacks to the other infrastructures that are important to their operation. Such plans may be of little or no value in the wake of a massive CME propagating an unprecedented EMP because of its long duration effects on all infrastructures that rely on electricity or electronics.
I can only conclude the effect of another Carrington Event sized CME on the Earth would be apocalyptic. Our critical infrastructures that support our overpopulated urban centers would fail. The majority of the urban population would die of dehydration, disease, starvation, and violence from the resulting social chaos. Some people in rural settings that have access to clean water and a means of food production would have a better chance of survival. On a continental or global scale, the net result would be the death of billions of people.
As soon as people begin to starve, they will regress into feral creatures and commence the macabre process of killing each other for water, food, and other resources we now take for granted. Ask yourself how you will get clean water to drink when it does not come from your faucet anymore; food when the store shelves are empty and the delivery trucks no longer operate; medicine when it cannot be created in its manufacturing facility, and heat for your home during the winter without electricity. Then ask yourself how you will survive.