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Book of Odds

Page 22

by Amram Shapiro


  SOURCES: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010. DP Strachan, “Family Size, Infection, and Atopy: The First Decade of the ‘Hygiene Hypothesis,’” Thorax: An International Journal of Respiratory Medicine 55(Suppl 1): S2–S10. J Hurst, “The ‘Hygiene Hypothesis’ Revisited,” Thorax: An International Journal of Respiratory Medicine 59(8), August 2004: 698.

  But Asthma Afflicts the Poor

  For adults, the odds of having asthma at any time in life are 1 in 7.7. However, in families living below the poverty level, the odds of this for an adult are greater: 1 in 6. In children, the odds of ever having had asthma are 1 in 7.3, but for children in families living below the poverty level, the odds are 1 in 5.6.

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  Vision Problems

  The odds an adult has vision problems:

  18–44: 1 in 18.7

  45–64: 1 in 9.2

  65–74: 1 in 9.7

  75 or older: 1 in 6.1

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  The odds a person 40 or over has a specific vision problem: 1 in 34

  Blindness: 1 in 111

  Low vision*: 1 in 49.1

  Myopia†: 1 in 4.2

  Hyperopia††: 1 in 10.1

  Cataracts: 1 in 5.8

  Diabetic retinopathy: 1 in 18.6

  Glaucoma: 1 in 52.5

  *Low vision is defined as the best-corrected visual acuity less than 6/12 (‹20/40) in the better-seeing eye (excluding those who were categorized as being blind by the US definition).

  †nearsightedness ††farsightedness

  SOURCE: National Eye Institute, “Prevalence of Adult Vision Impairment and Age-Related Eye Diseases in America,” http://www.nei.nih.gov/eyedata/adultvision_usa.asp.

  Hearing Problems

  The odds an adult 18–44 has hearing problems: 1 in 15.6.

  The odds for an adult 75 or older: 1 in 2.2.

  White: 1 in 6.1

  American Indian or Native Alaskan: 1 in 6.7

  Black: 1 in 10.6

  Asian: 1 in 10.6

  Hispanic: 1 in 12.9

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  Anatomy of Aches and Breaks

  Sprains, Strains, Fractures, Contusions, and Dislocations

  by Gender and Age

  The odds a man 18–44 will suffer a:

  sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 16.4

  fracture in a year: 1 in 24.4

  contusion in a year: 1 in 40

  dislocation in a year: 1 in 55.6

  The odds a man 45–64 will suffer a:

  sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 19.2

  fracture in a year: 1 in 25.6

  contusion in a year: 1 in 52.6

  dislocation in a year: 1 in 41.7

  The odds a man 65 or older will suffer a:

  sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 32.3

  fracture in a year: 1 in 18.5

  contusion in a year: 1 in 29.4

  dislocation in a year: 1 in 83.3

  The odds a woman 18–44 will suffer a:

  sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 16.7

  fracture in a year: 1 in 37

  contusion in a year: 1 in 40

  dislocation in a year: 1 in 100

  The odds a woman 45–64 will suffer a:

  sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 13.9

  fracture in a year: 1 in 17.5

  contusion in a year: 1 in 34.5

  dislocation in a year: 1 in 29.4

  The odds a woman 65 or older will suffer a:

  sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 16.4

  fracture in a year: 1 in 5.7

  contusion in a year: 1 in 12.8

  dislocation in a year: 1 in 25.6

  SOURCE: United States Bone and Joint Initiative, The Burden of Musculoskeletal Diseases in the United States, 1st ed., Rosemont, IL: American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, 2008.

  GENDER WARS

  The odds a woman wears contacts are 1 in 3.9 vs. 1 in 7.1 for a man.

  SOURCE: All About Vision, “Statistics on Eyeglasses and Contact Lenses,” http//www.allaboutvision.com/resources/statistics-eyewear.htm.

  The odds an adult wears premade drugstore reading glasses: 1 in 7.1

  SOURCE: All About Vision, “Statistics on Eyeglasses and Contact Lenses,” http//www.allaboutvision.com/resources/statistics-eyewear.htm.

  Of Time and the River: The Indignities of Bladder Control as One Ages

  The odds a man 60 or older reports having had difficulty controlling his bladder in the last year: 1 in 5.8

  The odds a woman 60 or older reports having had difficulty controlling her bladder in the last year: 1 in 2.6

  SOURCE: L Stothers, D Thom, E Calhoun, “Urologic Diseases in America Project: Urinary Incontinence in Males—Demographics and Economic Burden,” Journal of Urology 173, 2005: 1302–1308.

  GENDER WARS

  The odds a woman 50 or older has macular degeneration are 1 in 50.5 vs. 1 in 86.3 for a man.

  SOURCE: Prevent Blindness America, Vision Problems in the U.S., http://visionproblemsus.org/.

  Conditions That Land You in the Hospital

  The odds a person will be hospitalized for pancreatitis in a year: 1 in 1,060

  SOURCE: JE Everhart, ed., The Burden of Digestive Diseases in the United States (NIH Publication No. 09-6443). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2008.

  Appendicitis

  More men than women are stricken with appendicitis. In a year, the odds that a man will be hospitalized for appendicitis are 1 in 971 compared to 1 in 1,316 for a woman—a difference of 36%.

  The odds a bellyache is actually appendicitis go up and down with age. Under the age of 15, the odds are 1 in 5,000. Those age 15–44 are at the highest risk, 1 in 901. After that the odds fall to 1 in 1,370 for those 45–64 and 1 in 1,639 for those 65 or older.

  Appendicitis can turn deadly if the swollen appendix bursts, releasing pus and bacteria into the abdominal cavity. The odds that a person will die of appendicitis in a year are 1 in 887,121. You are more than twice as likely to choke to death on food (1 in 343,300).

  SOURCES: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Average Length of Stay for Discharges from Short-Stay Hospitals, by First-Listed Diagnosis and Age,” National Hospital Discharge Survey, 2010, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhds/2average/2010ave2_dischargesage.pdf. Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File.

  Kidney Stones

  Kidney stones have long been regarded as something that afflicts unsuspecting adults, but physicians are increasingly diagnosing them in children. The increase is so dramatic that some hospitals have opened kidney stone clinics as part of their pediatric care centers. The reason for the increased incidence in children is not fully understood, although dietary changes may be to blame. Kidney stones are often caused by an imbalance in the salts in the urine, arising in people who consume too much salt and drink too few fluids. Metabolic problems like obesity and diabetes may also play a part.

  But it’s still true that far more adults are afflicted than children.

  The odds a person will be hospitalized for kidney stones in a year:

  Under 5: 1 in 70,840

  6–10: 1 in
38,150

  11–15: 1 in 20,270

  15–44: 1 in 2,218

  45–64: 1 in 1,266

  65 or older: 1 in 1,190

  SOURCES: http://www.childrenshospital.org/az/Site1642/mainpageS1642P0.html. TE Novak, Y Lakshamanan, BJ Trock, JP Gearhart, BR Matlage, “Sex Prevalence of Pediatric Kidney Stone Disease in the United States: An Epidemilogic Investigation,” Urology 74(1), July 2009: 104. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Average Length of Stay for Discharges from Short-Stay Hospitals, by First-Listed Diagnosis and Age,” National Hospital Discharge Survey, 2010, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhds/2average/2010ave2_dischargesage.pdf.

  The odds a person 65 or older has Alzheimer’s disease: 1 in 6.9

  The odds a person 85 or older has Alzheimer’s disease: 1 in 1.6

  SOURCE: Alzheimer’s Association, 2010 Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Figures.

  Older Adults and Hip Fractures

  The odds an adult has ever broken or fractured a hip:

  45–64: 1 in 125

  65–74: 1 in 50

  75–84: 1 in 28.6

  85 or older: 1 in 9.4

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  The odds a woman will have her tonsils removed in a year: 1 in 353

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Ambulatory Surgery in the US.

  Numbers Tell the Story

  “I Got More than Flowers During My Hospital Stay.”

  The odds a hospitalized patient:

  will be diagnosed with a hospital-acquired infection 1 in 22.1

  will be diagnosed with a hospital-acquired urinary tract infection 1 in 88.4

  will be diagnosed with a hospital-acquired surgical site infection 1 in 137

  will be diagnosed with a hospital-acquired bloodstream infection 1 in 281

  will be diagnosed with hospital-acquired pneumonia 1 in 290

  will die as a result of a hospital-acquired infection 1 in 17.2

  The Moral: Stay out of the hospital.

  SOURCE: RM Klevens, JR Edwards, CL Richards, TC Horan, RP Gaynes, DA Polock, “Estimating Health Care–Associated Infections and Deaths in U.S. Hospitals,” Public Health Reports 122, March–April 2007: 160–166.

  Dental Problems

  Odds on Visiting a Dentist

  The odds an adult has never visited the dentist: 1 in 127

  The odds an adult last visited the dentist more than 5 years ago: 1 in 7.9

  The odds an adult last visited the dentist 3–5 years ago: 1 in 8.8

  The odds an adult last visited the dentist 1–2 years ago: 1 in 7.6

  The odds an adult last visited the dentist 6 months–1 year ago: 1 in 5.9

  The odds an adult last visited the dentist less than 6 months ago: 1 in 2.3

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  The odds an adult 35–49 has lost all of his or her teeth: 1 in 38.0

  The odds an adult 50–64 has lost all of his or her teeth: 1 in 9.9

  SOURCE: BA Dye, S Tan, V Smith, BG Lewis, K Barker, G Thornton-Evans, et al., “Trends in Oral Health Status: United States, 1988–1994 and 1999–2004,” Vital and Health Statistics 11(248), April 2007.

  Parkinson’s Disease

  Racial/Ethnic Disparities

  The odds of dying from Parkinson’s disease in a year:

  White: 1 in 12,850

  Asian or Pacific Islander: 1 in 43,969

  Black: 1 in 50,875

  American Indian or Native Alaskan: 1 in 58,831

  Hispanic: 1 in 61,620

  SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File.

  GENDER WARS

  The odds a woman 65 or older has osteoporosis are 1 in 3.9 vs. 1 in 27 for a man.

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  Infectious Diseases

  Infectious Disease Incidence—Bacterial and Viral

  The odds a person will be diagnosed with:

  gonorrhea 1 in 1004

  salmonellosis 1 in 6,369

  whooping cough 1 in 7,498

  Lyme disease 1 in 11,357

  coccidioidomycosis 1 in 18,402

  shigellosis 1 in 22,967

  giardiasis 1 in 23,815

  invasive streptococcus pneumoniae 1 in 25,095

  chicken pox 1 in 26,515

  tuberculosis 1 in 29,355

  cryptosporidiosis 1 in 44,381

  West Nile virus disease 1 in 55,623

  Shiga toxin-producing E. coli 1 in 55,872

  spotted fever rickettsiosis* 1 in 83,157

  animal rabies 1 in 87,685

  Legionellosis 1 in 98,346

  invasive haemophilus influenzae disease 1 in 100,207

  acute viral hepatitis B 1 in 106,441

  acute viral hepatitis C 1 in 208,499

  acute viral hepatitis A 1 in 223,966

  malaria 1 in 266,716

  listeriosis 1 in 472,892

  invasive meningococcal disease 1 in 625,498

  typhoid fever 1 in 1,129,496

  mumps 1 in 1,577,889

  brucellosis 1 in 2,552,846

  botulism 1 in 2,661,017

  streptococcal toxic shock syndrome 1 in 2,795,584

  measles 1 in 5,709,091

  tetanus 1 in 8,722,222

  chancroid 1 in 13,652,174

  hantavirus pulmonary syndrome 1 in 14,952,381

  trichinellosis 1 in 20,933,333

  Eastern equine virus 1 in 25,160,256

  rubella 1 in 37,740,385

  cholera 1 in 78,500,000

  plague 1 in 104,666,667

  *Includes Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

  SOURCE: J Kriseman, DA Adams, WJ Anderson, L Blanton, R Dhara, DH Onweh, AW Schley, “Notifiable Diseases and Mortality, United States, 2008,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 57(54), June 25, 2010.

  The odds a person will contract a flesh-eating disease in a year: 1 in 302,900

  SOURCE: B Sarani, M Strong, J Pascual, W Schwab, “Necrotizing Fasciitis: Current Concepts and Review of the Literature,” Journal of the American College of Surgeons 10(32), 2008.

  If You Are Lying About Washing, Raise Your Hands

  More people report they wash their hands than actually are observed doing so. Researchers secreted in locations such as the restrooms at New York’s Grand Central Terminal tally who washes and who doesn’t, which is compared to what people report.

  SOURCE: Harris Interactive, A Survey of Handwashing Behavior (Trended), prepared for the American Microbiology Society and the American Cleaning Institute, August 2010.

  Pneumonia Deaths

  The odds an infant will die of pneumonia 1 in 20,868

  The odds a child

  1–4 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 185,024

  5–14 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 590,646

  The odds a person

  15–24 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 277,818

  25–34 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 126,847

  35–44 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 56,286

  45–54 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 23,362

  55–64 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 10,563

  65–74 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 3,520

  75–84 will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 679

  85 or older will die of pneumonia in a year 1 in 219

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p; SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File, 2007 deaths.

  GENDER WARS

  The odds a woman has been diagnosed with arthritis are 1 in 4.1 vs. 1 in 5.5 for a man.

  SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Center for Health Statistics, “Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults: National Health Interview Survey, 2009,” Vital and Health Statistics Report 10(249), December 2010.

  “Don’t Forget! Flu Shot Tomorrow.”

  The odds a person will die of the flu in a year: 1 in 733,871

  SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File, 2007 deaths.

  What Are the Odds Your Temperature Is Normal?

  98.6 degrees Fahrenheit is an overestimate of average body temperature. A German doctor named Carl Reinhold August Wunderlich came up with it by sticking a foot-long mercury thermometer into 25,000 people’s armpits for fifteen minutes each. It was the mid-nineteenth century, so he averaged the readings by hand. This average became the medical standard for normal body temperature. And Wunderlich’s thermometer wasn’t even calibrated correctly—it read a good three degrees too low.

  So what is normal? A team of researchers at the University of Maryland School of Medicine tried to answer this in 1992. They used digital thermometers, oral temperatures, and a mere 148 patients. Average body temperature, they decided, was 98.2 degrees.

  But that’s not the end of it, because “average” isn’t “normal.” “Normal” is a spread, defined as the range in which 95% of temperature readings of healthy people fall: between 97.5 and 98.9 degrees. That means there’s a 1 in 20 chance your body temperature—your normal body temperature—is higher or lower than the average.

 

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