The Odds of Zombification?
You see them in movies, parades, and shopping malls. They are bruised and decomposed. They move slow as nightmare horrors, hunting for human flesh. These are zombies, of course, the reanimated dead and, no, they don’t want your money; they want you! In a consumerist culture, what could be finer cultural sabotage than to consume the consumer?
Should we be worried? Depends on the odds, of course. If a zombie bites a non-zombie, the bitten becomes a zombie, too. Sound familiar? Let the mosquito transmit the transforming bite and this is the way malaria works. So does the flu and anything else that grows virally. If nothing stops a zombie or cures the zombified, eventually everyone becomes one. In fact, it can happen rather quickly.
But let’s say the outbreak starts and we learn how to nullify some zombies after only five days. What are the odds then? It turns out that with pestilence that spreads virally, the difference between good odds of cure and great ones is all the difference in the world.
Here’s a model that tells the tale. Suppose on the first day of the outbreak there is just one zombie. Let’s say that each zombie creates a new zombie a day by biting a regular human and that we start working off the zombie backlog on day five.
Suppose the odds of the Zombie Cure working are 1 in 1.05 or 95%. This is great but even so, after 100 days there will be 865 zombies, about the number of languages spoken by 100,000 or more. But what if the the odds of the Zombie Cure working were just a bit worse, say, 1 in 1.1 or 90%? One hundred days pass and there are 75,299 zombies! This is more people than fit in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field or Berlin’s Olympic Stadium!
Okay, now suppose the odds of the Zombie Cure working is 1 in 1.25, or 80%. That is pretty effective, about the rate that a household owns an outdoor barbecue grill. What happens at this level? In 100 days we would have almost 320 million zombies, more than the population of the United States.
(Thanks for this go to Munz et al. and Lakeland, whose work we simplified, and whom we regard as the inventors of “Zombie Modeling,” a mathematical and not a fashion runway term.)
SOURCES: W Davis, Passage of Darkness: The Ethnobiology of the Haitian Zombie, Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1988. K Thomas, “Haitian Zombie, Myth, and Modern Identity,” Comparative Literature and Culture 12(2), 2010, http://docs.lib.purdue.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1602&context=clcweb. M Murtaugh, “Constructing the Haitian Zombie: An Anthropological Study Beyond Madness,” 2009, Benedict Award–winning paper. A Gelman, G Romero, “‘How Many Zombies Do You Know?’ Using Indirect Survey Methods to Measure Alien Attacks and Outbreaks of the Undead,” March 31, 2010. MP Lewis, ed., Ethnologue: Languages of the World, 16th ed., Dallas: SIL International, 2009. P Munz, I Hudea, J Imad, RJ Smith, “When Zombies Attack! Mathematical Modelling of an Outbreak of Zombie Infection,” Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress, Nova Science, 2009: 133–150. D Lakeland, “Improved Zombie Dynamics,” Models of Reality, Engineering, Science and Society, March 1, 2010, http://models.street-artists.org/2010/03/01/improved-zombie-dynamics/.
They Walk Among Us
1 in 3.1 American adults believes in UFOs. The odds an American adult reports actually having seen a UFO are 1 in 5.8. And a Reuters News poll reveals that when people all over the globe were asked, “Do you believe that aliens have come down to Earth, and live in our communities, disguised as humans?,” 1 in 5 answered yes.
More than 23,000 people in twenty-three countries were surveyed.
China and India have the highest percentages of believers. 45% of Indian respondents, and 42% of Chinese, believe in incognito ETs. The believers come from all economic brackets, tend to be men (22% vs. 17% of women), and are generally 35 or younger.
On the other end of the spectrum, northern European countries like Belgium, Sweden, and the Netherlands contain the fewest believers: only 8% each. The poll was conducted for Reuters by Ipsos, a survey-based research company, whose senior vice president, John Wright, speculates that “in a less populated country, you are more likely to know your next door neighbor better”—and thus have a certain confidence that he or she has not been body-snatched.
SOURCES: Harris Interactive, “What People Do and Do Not Believe In,” Harris Poll #140, press release, December 15, 2009, http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris_Poll_2009_12_15.pdf. Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion, American Piety in the 21st Century: Selected Findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, September 2006. Reuters Ipsos poll, “They Walk Among Us: 1 in 5 Believe in Aliens?,” press release, April 8, 2010.
Conspiracy Theories
• The odds an adult believes it is very likely that the Pentagon was not struck by an airliner captured by terrorists on 9/11 but was instead hit by a cruise missile fired by the US military: 1 in 16.4
• The odds an adult believes there is a chance that Elvis Presley is still alive: 1 in 12.5
• The odds an adult believes it is very likely that officials in the federal government were directly responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy: 1 in 8.3
• The odds an adult believes it is very likely that the federal government is withholding proof of the existence of intelligent life on other planets: 1 in 6.3
• The odds an adult believes it is very likely that people in the federal government either assisted in the 9/11 attacks or took no action to stop the attacks because they wanted the United States to go to war in the Middle East: 1 in 6.2
• The odds an adult believes the crash that killed Princess Diana was probably planned: 1 in 3.9
• The odds an adult believes it is likely that the CIA allowed drug dealers from Central America to sell crack cocaine to black people in US inner cities: 1 in 1.9
SOURCES: C Stempel, T Hargrove, GH Stempel III, “Media Use, Social Structure and Belief in 9/11 Conspiracy Theories,” Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly 84(2), Summer 2007. D Blanton, “Poll: For a Few True Believers Elvis Lives,” Fox News Poll, August 14, 2002. “The Death of Princess Diana,” press release, CBS News/48 Hours Poll, April 21, 2004. C DiLouie, “Most Americans Believe in Conspiracy Theories,” Disinformation Archive, December 13, 2001.
SOURCE: Rasmussen Poll, “Partisan Trends: Number of Republicans in America Reaches Record High,” press release, September 3, 2012.
Political Trending, 1969–2011
The Odds an Adult Will Report He or She Is a/an:
SOURCES: Rasmussen Poll, “Partisan Trends: Number of Republicans in America Reaches Record High,” press release, September 3, 2012. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes, 1987–2009, press release, May 21, 2009. Harris Interactive, “Democratic Lead in Party Identification at Highest Point in 25 Years,” press release, March 3, 2009.
“I Could Date a Moderate”
The odds a woman considers political views as the most important characteristic when searching for a significant other: 1 in 100
SOURCE: Yahoo! Personals and TheKnot.com, “Dating Survey: Women on Finding ‘The One,’” September 13, 2009.
Political Leanings
(Liberal vs. Conservative)
The odds an adult is a conservative 1 in 2.4
The odds an adult is a moderate 1 in 2.7
The odds an adult is a liberal 1 in 4.8
SOURCE: F. Newport, JM Jones, L Saad, “Democrats More Liberal, Less White than 2008,” Gallup, press release, November 7, 2011, http://www.gallup.com.
Means of Political Expression
The odds an adult 26 or older will express him- or herself politically by:
engaging in a boycott in a year 1 in 2.6
engaging in a buycott in a year 1 in 3
signing a paper petition in a year 1 in 3.9
signing an email petition in a year 1 in 4.8
contacting a public official in a year 1 in 4.6
protesting in a year 1 in 20
contacting broadcast media in a ye
ar 1 in 12.5
contacting print media in a year 1 in 9.1
canvassing in a year 1 in 50
SOURCE: MH Lopez, P Levine, The 2006 Civic and Political Health of the Nation: A Detailed Look at How Youth Participate in Politics and Communities, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, October 2006.
Partisan Nation
The odds an adult agrees that
“it is the responsibility of the government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves”:
1 in 1.6
The odds an adult agrees that
“the federal government controls too much of our daily lives”:
1 in 1.8
The odds an adult 26 or older believes
“politics is a way for the powerful to keep power for themselves”:
1 in 1.9
The odds an adult 26 or older believes
“it is his or her responsibility to get involved and make things better for society”:
1 in 2.4
SOURCES: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes, 1987–2009, press release, May 21, 2009. MH Lopez, P Levine, The 2006 Civic and Political Health of the Nation: A Detailed Look at How Youth Participate in Politics and Communities, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, October 2006.
The Odds on Being
Proud to Be an American
by Age
The odds an adult 18–24 is very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 1.5
The odds an adult 18–24 is somewhat proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 3.7
The odds an adult 18–24 is not very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 16.7
The odds an adult 18–24 is not at all proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 50
The odds an adult 25–29 is very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 1.6
The odds an adult 25–29 is somewhat proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 4.2
The odds an adult 25–29 is not very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 12.5
The odds an adult 25–29 is not at all proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 100
The odds an adult 30–39 is very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 1.3
The odds an adult 30–39 is somewhat proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 4.8
The odds an adult 30–39 is not very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 50
The odds an adult 30–39 is not at all proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 100
The odds an adult 40–49 is very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 1.3
The odds an adult 40–49 is somewhat proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 5.6
The odds an adult 40–49 is not very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 25
The odds an adult 40–49 is not at all proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 100
The odds an adult 50–64 is very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 1.2
The odds an adult 50–64 is somewhat proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 7.1
The odds an adult 50–64 is not very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 33.3
The odds an adult 65 or older is very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 1.1
The odds an adult 65 or older is somewhat proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 11.1
The odds an adult 65 or older is not very proud to be an American citizen: 1 in 100
SOURCE: Harris Interactive, “Americans Just as Proud to Be an American Citizen Now as After 9/11,” press release, September 10, 2009.
Priorities in the United States
The odds a likely voter thinks:
the economy should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.3
health care should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.5
government ethics and corruption should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.5
education should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.6
taxes should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.7
Social Security should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.7
energy policy should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.9
national security/the war on terror should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 1.9
immigration should be a very important issue this year: 1 in 2.2
SOURCE: Rasmussen Reports, “Importance of Issues, Economy Continues to Top List of Most Important Issues, Election 2012,” September 21, 2012.
1 in 2.6 adults believes a communist college professor should be fired.
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04691 v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, 2009 [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors].
A Limit to Free Speech?
The odds a person believes public libraries should remove books:
saying that black people are genetically inferior: 1 in 2.9
written by communists: 1 in 3.3
advocating doing away with elections and letting the military run the country: 1 in 3.5
against churches or religion: 1 in 3.7
in favor of homosexuality, written by homosexual men: 1 in 4.4
The odds a person believes in banning public speeches:
claiming black people are genetically inferior: 1 in 2.5
by militarists: 1 in 3
by communists: 1 in 3.1
against churches or religion: 1 in 4.3
by homosexual men: 1 in 5.9
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04691 v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, 2009 [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors].
Hot Buttons Stem Cell Research
1 in 1.7
The odds an adult believes embryonic stem cell research is morally acceptable.
1 in 2.9
The odds an adult “is worried that science is going too far and is hurting society rather than helping it.”
1 in 3.1
The odds an adult believes embryonic stem cell research is morally wrong.
1 in 5.3
The odds an adult believes the federal government should not fund stem cell research.
1 in 7.1
The odds an adult believes the federal government should not have funding restrictions on stem cell research.
SOURCES: F Newport, “Americans and Embryonic Stem Cells,” Polling Matters, Gallup, August 24, 2010. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes, 1987–2009, press release, May 21, 2009. L Morales, “Majority of Americans Likely Support Stem Cell Decision, Analysis of Stem Cell Research Poll Results,” Gallup, March 9, 2009.
Racial Profiling
Driving While Black” is an expression African Americans use for racial profiling, black humor suggesting that one has as much choice about race as intoxication. In many parts of the country it’s been replaced with “Driving While Hispanic.”
The odds a black adult believes that traffic patrols use racial profiling are 1 in 5, less than those of Hispanic adults: 1 in 1.5. By contrast, the odds a white driver believes police use racial profiling as a basis for stopping drivers are 1 in 2.
What the numbers show depends upon whom you ask and when. Studies in the 1990s showed large disparities on the New Jersey Turnpike, and in Maryland and Ohio. An observational study Dr. John Lamberth performed on the “pike” showed that 73.2% of those stopped and arrested were black, while only 13.5% of the cars on the road had a black driver or passenger; patro
l and radio logs showed a similar but somewhat smaller disparity. In either accounting, chance couldn’t account for this disparity. Consent decrees, sensitivity training, and further polemics followed.
More recent statistics of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (using national data from law enforcement) show no evidence of a dramatic difference in the likelihood of a driver being pulled over: the odds a white driver will be stopped by the police in a year are 1 in 11.4; for a Hispanic driver they are 1 in 11.7; for black drivers 1 in 10.9—about a 4% greater likelihood a black driver will be pulled over than a white or Hispanic driver.
The big difference comes in what happens next. The odds a white driver stopped by the police was not given a reason for getting pulled over are 1 in 56.4. The odds for a black driver are more than double: 1 in 22.3. The odds for a Hispanic driver are in between the two.
In some jurisdictions, Hispanic drivers may be more likely than other drivers to end up with a ticket. A January 2012 New York Times article revealed that more than half of the tickets issued along two main thoroughfares in East Haven, Connecticut, were given to Hispanic drivers—although the local population has fewer than 6% Hispanic residents.
SOURCES: DA Harris, “The Stories, the Statistics, and the Law: Why ‘Driving While Black’ Matters, II: The Statistical Analysis,” Minnesota Law Review 84, 1999: 265–326. DK Carlson, “Racial Profiling Seen as Pervasive, Unjust,” Gallup, press release, July 20, 2004. Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Characteristics of Drivers Stopped by Police, 2002,” June 1, 2006. “East Haven Police Ticket More Hispanics,” New York Times, January 31, 2012.
Racial Disparities
The odds a white adult believes most Americans are not racist: 1 in 1.7
Book of Odds Page 29