by D S Kane
Prediction markets have a long and colorful lineage. Betting on elections was common in the United States until at least the 1940s, with formal markets existing on Wall Street in the months leading up to the race. Newspapers reported market conditions to give a sense of the closeness of the contest in this period prior to widespread polling. The markets involved thousands of participants, had millions of dollars in volume in current terms, and had remarkable predictive accuracy.
Around 1990 at Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market. Employees used it in order to bet on, for example, the cold fusion controversy.
In 2001, Intrade.com launched a prediction market trading platform from Ireland allowing real money trading between members on contracts related to a number of different categories including business issues, current events, financial topics, and more. Intrade ceased trading in 2013.
In July 2003, the US Department of Defense publicized a Policy Analysis Market and on their website speculated that additional topics for markets might include terrorist attacks. A critical backlash quickly denounced the program as a “terrorism futures market” and the Pentagon hastily canceled the program.
Prediction markets are championed in James Surowiecki’s 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds; Cass R. Sunstein’s 2006 Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge; and How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of “Intangibles” in Business by Douglas W. Hubbard.
The research literature is collected together in the peer-reviewed Journal of Prediction Markets, edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by the University of Buckingham Press. The journal was first published in 2007, and is available online and in print.
In John Brunner’s 1975 science fiction story, The Shockwave Rider, there is a description of a prediction market that he called the Delphi Pool.
In October 2007 companies from the United States, Ireland, Austria, Germany, and Denmark formed the Prediction Market Industry Association, tasked with promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.
Because online gambling is outlawed in the United States through federal laws and many state laws as well, most prediction markets that target US users operate with “play money” rather than “real money”: they are free to play (no purchase necessary) and usually offer prizes to the best traders as incentives to participate. Notable exceptions are Intrade/TradeSports, which accepted US resident clients until November 2012, and the Iowa Electronic Markets, which operates from the University of Iowa under the cover of a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and allows bets up to $500.
BONUS:
The first chapter of
Baksheesh,
Book 5 of the Spies Lie series!
December 4, 7:33 a.m.
220 East Kirke Street,
Chevy Chase, Maryland
She sat in the kitchen, exhausted and in pain. In the bleak November dawn, the sun was rising rosy, blurred by clouds, peeking through the window from an otherwise sleet-gray sky. Her reflection in the mirror displayed the raw bullet hole in her cheek, its stitches glowing an angry red.
Cassandra Sashakovich looked at her boyfriend, Lee, then at her adopted daughter, Ann. The pain in her heart mirrored the pain from her torn face.
Her mind wandered briefly through the last year, how she’d been forced to run for her life, chased by people who needed her dead and would do anything to have her head shipped to Afghanistan in a box.
Life for her would never again be safe. Before she’d realized this, she’d become the adoptive mother of a teenaged girl, assumed ownership of a stray cat, bought a house, gone from being an employee of a government intelligence agency to heading her own mercenary consulting force. But then, she’d made some colossal mistakes. As a result, she’d been hunted.
She inhaled the wonderful aroma of the coffee in her cup. Stalling for time.
Her broken face showed surprise as the man knelt before her.
She was nearly thirty years old, athletic, but damaged in so many ways. She drew one hand through her short, brown hair, considering his offer. The close-range gunshot wound from a would-be assassin just a week ago throbbed as she tried to move her mouth. Her face was scheduled for months of reconstructive surgeries, complex and painful.
Lee Ainsley, her boyfriend, knelt, holding up the tiny ring with its miniature diamond in his hand, offering it to her. He seemed to sense the tsunami of emotions overpowering her. Feelings mixed with logic pointing in every other direction from what she truly wanted.
He grinned slyly, like a child who’d waited too long for Christmas. “What’s your answer? Cassandra Sashakovich, I’m hopelessly in love with you. Please marry me.”
Her eyes had popped wide open the first time he asked. Now she tried to speak but her lips wouldn’t move.
She’d shown him her heart, her one and only private place, where thought had no currency.
She forced herself to moisten her lips through the pain, preparing to speak. The voice inside her head told her not to try—to sort all of it out before she answered him.
Time to feel? Time to think?
She realized there wasn’t time to properly analyze this. Cassie tried thinking anyway, since—for her—thinking always happened before any action. She wondered what she really wanted. Of course she wanted Lee. And the voice in the back of her head stated bluntly that having Lee would be dangerous for him. She wasn’t safe. No one with her could ever be safe.
Now, what she had originally dreamed of—being wanted and loved by an intelligent, good-looking man—was about to become her dream come true. But Lee had been targeted for death because of her. Accepting his proposal would only exaggerate his danger. And, Ann, her adopted daughter would be in greater danger with both her and Lee as marks for assassins.If Cassie agreed to Lee’s proposal, she’d place them all in danger. It would be so much easier for any of her enemies to leverage her. Yet, if she declined, she’d be acknowledging that the terrorists had succeeded in destroying her life. Cassie sighed; it was a lose-lose situation.
Her heart leaped at the sight of the miniscule ring. Where had he bought it? When had he had time? It had to have been before he was picked up by the FBI and taken to Guantanamo Bay; it was so small that he’d probably bought it the day after they’d left the Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC.
Cassie realized, omigod, he’s been planning this for months.
She heard Ann come down the stairs. She saw the teen’s reflection, watching from just beyond the kitchen doors, facing Cassie’s back. Ann’s ragged hair had been dyed back to its natural mousey brown color, from the purple and pink she’d colored it to disguise herself when she was hunted weeks ago by a Saudi assassin. Ann held Gizmo, their small, black kitten, in her arms. She smiled. “Do it, mom,” she whispered.
Time to choose.
Through the pain in her mouth she slowly formed the words. “Lee, I love you. You know that. But if I say yes you’ll have to quit your job with the agency, and we’ll have to move away somewhere we can’t be found. We’ll need to become our own witness protection group. And, since we’re broke, we’ll need a way to do this on the cheap. Maybe sell Swiftshadow Consulting Group to Avram Shimmel to raise the cash first. Are you sure this is okay with you?”
Lee smiled. “I’ve already thought all of this through. Family first. Us together. All of us. I spoke with Ann and told her what I was going to do. She can handle this. I can handle this. So, can you? Will you? Marry me?”
He used the blunt questions once again like weapons. She found her feelings overpowering her ability to inject logic into the situation. Tears began to form in the corners of her eyes.
There would be more questions to answer, more things to plan, a mountain of tasks to do. But that was for later. It had been her dream. It was now her reality. She nodded her head. “Yes, I love you. Yes, I’m in love with you. Yes, I’ll marry you and be your bride.” She pointed her finger back at him. “But to prov
e your commitment I want you to resign from the agency immediately. Do something less dangerous. Or do nothing at all. And, as I said, we’ll have to relocate and change our identities. Do you agree?”
Lee nodded, gently reaching out for her left hand. He quickly slipped the ring on her finger, as if rushing before she changed her mind.
But she drew him to her. Held him hard against her, then kissed his lips gently, despite the pain. In seconds, Ann was with them, holding Gizmo and hugging them both.
They were a family now.
Acknowledgements
First and foremost, this story was spawned by a series of conversations with Steve Schear, one of the original cypherpunks and a long-time friend. He reminded me of one of my management consulting clients who’d been instrumental in the development of predictive markets. Steve led me to the cypherpunks list and Jim Bell’s iconic paper, “Assassination Politics.”
So many other people were crucial in preparing this manuscript for you, the reader.
As always, my critiques were provided by the ActFourWriting,com group, including Dennis Phinney, Linda Rohrbough, Janet Simcic, Brenda Barrie, Aaron Ritchey, Caryn Scotto, Liz Picco, Julia Reynolds, Daniel Houston, Steve Eggleston, Juliann Kauffman, Teri Gray, Carl Vondareu, Claudia Melendez, Megan Edwards, and Judy Whitmore. My local critique group, headed by Diana Paul, was instrumental in the final polishing of this manuscript into readable fiction. I also received valuable feedback, especially concerning military tactics and strategy, as well as inside information regarding sites where conflicts have occurred or are now occurring, from several folks from the Drink of the Month Club, a group consisting mostly of Naval Postgraduate School administration and faculty, including Ron Nelson, Martin Metzger, Fred Drake, Lee Scheffel, and Gary Ohls. Also, my friends and family contributed critiques, including Barry Groves, Michael Spicer, Frances and Elliot Spiselman, and Dana Gorman. And finally, Andrea Brown, my wife, and the CEO of the Andrea Brown Literary Agency, Inc. is the best and final voice for judging what I create. She is responsible for so much of what is good in my life.
Several best-selling authors have contributed to my efforts, including James Rollins (for his discussions with me on liquid armor), Barry Eisler for his advice on self-publishing, Holly Lisle for her coursework on world building, and Greg Bear for our discussion on craft after the graduation ceremony at Northwest Institute of Literary Arts.
I want to thank my publication team, consisting of my editor, Sandra Beris; copyeditor Karl Yambert; graphic designer Jeroen Ten Berge; my website designer and host Maddee James of xuni.com; my publicists Brandi Andres and Rebecca Berus; and Paul Marotta and Megan Jeanne of the Corporate Law Group, who incorporated The Swiftshadow Group for me.
I also want to thank my literary agent, Nancy Ellis, and my film agent, Brandy Rivers, for all their hard work on my behalf.
I am grateful for all the suggestions and advice I have received but I alone am responsible for the resulting work.
I wish to acknowledge that the Wailea Spa and Hotel found in GrayNet is not the Grand Wailea Hotel and Spa, although they may appear to be quite similar. All the other places in GrayNet are as they exist in the real world.
About the Author
D. S. KANE is the name the author has chosen to write under. He worked in the field of covert intelligence for over a decade. During that time, he traveled globally for clients including government and military agencies, the largest banks, and Fortune 100 corporations. One of the banks he investigated housed the banking assets of many of the world’s intelligence agencies and secret police forces, including the CIA and NSA. Much of his work product was pure but believable fiction, lies he told, and truths he concealed.
Now, he’s a retired spy, still writing fiction. Through his novels, he exposes the way intelligence agencies craft fiction for sale to sway their countries and manipulate their national policy, driving countries into dangerous conflicts.
He’s been published under his real name many times in financial trade journals on topics including global banking, computer fraud and countermeasures, financial forecasting, global electronic-funds transfer networks, and corporate finance, including one book on finance published by a major publisher. He has been a featured speaker at financial conferences and conventions. His children’s book, A Teenager’s Guide to Money, Banking and Finance, was published in 1987 by Simon & Schuster. He was once the CEO of an eBook publishing company and writes a blog (dskane.com) on topics that include new technology, politics, and the future of publishing.
He has been guest lecturer at the Whidbey Island MFA program, and also teaches a course at the Muse Online Writers Conference entitled Covert Training and Covert Operations for Fiction Writers, and one on a similar topic at California libraries, funded by a federal grant. He has taught a thriller-writing course at the Pikes Peak Writers Conference and was a featured speaker at a dinner meeting of the California Writers Club. He taught finance at the Stern Graduate Business School of New York University for over ten years, and is one of the co-founders of ActFourWriters.com, a unique email-based novelists’ critique group ( www.actfourwriters.com). His website can be found at http://dskane.com.