by Dale Brown
“Yes, sir. They could surge them in times of crisis, as we would, but half on patrol and half in training, predeployment workup, or maintenance is typical.”
“So we’re down to two subs on duty with a max of twenty-four ASATs. It doesn’t sound like much of a threat to me, ladies and gentlemen.”
“Combined with the land-based antisatellite missiles, I’d say it was a very serious threat, especially in a coordinated attack against Armstrong, sir,” Kai said. “They would salvo their ASATs to try to overwhelm our defenses, dilute the number of interceptors we could use for antiballistic-missile defense, and put us on the defensive to prevent us from employing ground-attack weapons.”
“And if they load up their subs with antisatellite missiles they have fewer land-or ship-attack weapons to use against someone else,” Turner said. “The president warned about an arms race, folks, and it looks like it’s happening right before our eyes. We spooked the Chinese by firing antiballistic-missile and ground-attack weapons from space, and now they’re scrambling to make up for lost ground.”
“The good news is, they’re forced to compromise other plans and programs to do so,” General Bain said.
“Only until they ramp up production and build more subs and missiles, sir,” Kai said.
“Which they certainly will,” Ann Page interjected. “So I believe it’s imperative to start ramping up our own space programs, such as deploying the remaining interceptor garages quicker and completing the network integration of Space Defense Force with the other services, the Pentagon, and the intelligence services. We know now that if we do nothing, the Chinese are very capable of quickly fielding a potent enough mix of weapons to seriously threaten our foothold in space. We need to deploy the remaining twenty-four garages as soon as possible. With the right funding, we can-”
“You’re talking money that’s not in the budget now and is not expected to be in the budget for the next three to seven years, Ann,” Turner said. “We’re spending billions to launch things into space that cost the Chinese only a few million to kill. That kind of fuzzy math is not going to solve the problem.” He turned away from Ann to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. “General, what’s the conclusion of the Chiefs? Is this a real threat against our space assets, a warning message, or a successful demonstration that isn’t a real threat to us?”
“The Chiefs had the same questions you did about the numbers of ballistic-missile-capable subs in the Chinese fleet and the number of ASAT tests over the years, sir,” General Bain replied, “and they have concluded that the test was indeed very impressive, but the threat to Armstrong Space Station or any other assets would be minimal.
“True, the Chinese have deployed many of these ground-based mobile antisatellite emplacements in recent months,” he went on, “and the submarine-launched ASAT is a much greater threat because it would be harder to target ahead of time.” He looked at Ann Page, nodded, and spread his hands. “And frankly, I’m not on Armstrong, looking down the barrel of all those guns pointed at me. But the United States has declared that attacking any space assets would be treated the same as attacking sovereign American soil or a U.S.-flagged ship at sea, and the Chiefs don’t believe China wants to attack anyone.
“The bottom line is this, sir: China has deployed an awful lot of these ASAT sites in direct proportion to our deployment of these interceptor garages in space,” Bain concluded. “Those garages are there not to start a fight, but to respond in case a fight breaks out. We feel the same is true for the ASAT sites. Further, China is deploying these weapons with way below the bare minimum of testing. We looked at the same info: Two tests in five years, although successful, do not normally signal a green light to widely deploy these systems. China is doing this in response to our actions, whether or not the weapons are truly effective. They are trying to show they can’t be bullied or intimidated.”
“But we’re not trying to bully or intimidate anyone here,” Turner said, “so China is setting up these antisatellite weapons for nothing. It’s a waste of their time and money.”
“But what if China does have another agenda?” Ann Page asked. “We’re not opposing China -we want their investments and cheap goods. But what if China has other plans that we might oppose? Could they take away our advantage in space if we don’t respond to this escalation?”
“That’s a policy hypothetical that doesn’t concern us right now, Dr. Page,” Turner said. “This meeting was called to explore whether this recent development constituted a credible and imminent threat to national security that needed to be addressed right away by the White House. The answer seems to be no. Am I correct in that, ladies and gentlemen?”
“I think it remains to be seen, sir,” Ann said.
“As General Bain said, Secretary Turner: We’re looking down the barrels of a lot of guns all of a sudden,” Kai said. “The only defense against a bolt-from-the-blue antisatellite attack is with defensive weapons, and right now our defenses are borderline. We couldn’t survive a direct concentrated attack without a full-up constellation of interceptor garages and a fully responsive and integrated defense data network, based from up here. China could have the capability to shoot down this station at a time and place of their choosing, and our chances of surviving an attack is low right now without more support.”
“Message received and understood, General Raydon,” Turner said. “Thank you for your input. Thank you, everyone.” And the connection went dead.
“Well?” President Joseph Gardner asked impatiently on the secure phone line from the Oval Office, just a few moments from the conclusion of the videoconference at the Pentagon. With him were Vice President Kenneth Phoenix, Chief of Staff Walter Kordus, National Security Adviser Conrad Carlyle, and Secretary of State Stacy Anne Barbeau. “What’s the word?”
“As you surmised, sir: The Air Force and the space nuts are all freaked out, but the Joint Chiefs don’t think it’s a big deal that China tested this sub-launched antisatellite missile,” Miller Turner said. “The Joint Chiefs say it was a successful demo of an antisatellite system that’s not likely to be used except to show the world that China doesn’t like current U.S. space policy. They may continue to deploy more antisatellite weapons and submarines, but are unlikely to ever use them. Space Defense Force thinks they can defend themselves against all but a concentrated, dedicated assault, which everyone agrees is very unlikely.”
“But of course Page and Raydon want more, right?”
“Of course. Like you said, they want to accelerate deployment of more interceptor garages and set up the fully integrated space defense network-with them in full control, of course.”
“Apparently we haven’t made it clear enough to them that it’s not going to happen: The Space Defense Force is pure fiction, and it’s not going to get one single dime more than what’s budgeted right now to keep their stuff operating at current levels,” Gardner said. “Thank you for getting that meeting put together so quickly, Miller. I’ll be talking with Stacy about what our diplomatic response should be, but I’m encouraged by the fact that China gave the world a heads-up before testing that weapon, even if it was a pretty short one. I think once the saber-rattling dies down, we’ll be able to work with the Chinese to ratchet the tension down. Thanks again.”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Turner said, signing off.
The president nodded and set the receiver on its hook. “It’s as we figured: The Chiefs say the missile launch was a successful test of a new capability, but it doesn’t represent a significant threat because it’s immature technology and the Chinese have so few subs capable of launching the missiles,” he summarized for the others in the Oval Office with him. “Not a cause for undue concern. Thoughts?”
“I still disagree, sir,” Phoenix said. “We have a trillion-dollar investment in Armstrong Space Station and the other components of the Space Defense Force network. Testing that sub-launched antisatellite weapon was a direct threat to all of it. We have to respond by finishing the inter
ceptor garages and completing integration of the space-sensor network with the rest of the military, and we have to do it quickly before China gains an advantage by fielding more of those antisatellite missiles.”
“It would take an emergency funding bill costing hundreds of billions of dollars, Mr. Vice President,” Carlyle said. “I don’t think we have the votes in Congress, and I’m positive we don’t have the money.”
“I believe strongly enough in the program that I’m willing to lead the effort to get as many representatives to support it as possible, Mr. President,” Phoenix said. “I know a group of lawmakers who would draft a bill, and I can get a number of industry groups and contractors together to explain exactly what the completed system would give us. Just say the word.”
“Maybe after the elections, Ken,” Gardner said flatly.
“We should act as quickly as we can, sir-”
“I think it’s important not to overreact to this test, Mr. Vice President,” Barbeau interjected when she saw Gardner ’s warning glare. “I’ve spoken with the premier and civilian military leadership of China, and they’ve all assured me that China views space as it does the high seas: It should be free for peaceful and cooperative exploitation by all nations.” She turned to the president. “The Chinese say current U.S. policy toward space makes it difficult for them to back away from deploying antisatellite weapons, sir.” She saw a hint of confusion in the president’s face, so she explained:
“Our stated policy is that travel, access, and development of space is considered a vital national imperative and we’ll defend it like our own soil and shores.” The confused look vanished, replaced by one of worry. “Our policies don’t mesh.”
“So you’re suggesting we change our policy because China doesn’t like it?” Phoenix asked. “Since when does China tell us what to say or do?”
“I’m not suggesting we change our policy because China said so, Mr. Vice President,” Barbeau said testily. “I’m saying that in my opinion the sticking point with the Chinese and other nations is that our policy states America is claiming the right to space and will go to war to protect that right. China and other space-faring states want a guarantee of free access for all. If they don’t get that assurance, their only response is to build and field weapons that can at least threaten our systems.”
“If they want an arms race, we should give it to them,” Phoenix said. “That’s how President Reagan took down the Soviet Union and ended the Cold War: He forced the Soviets to invest more and more in weapons until their economy finally collapsed. China may have a red-hot economy now, but if they’re forced into a space arms race with us, we can bankrupt them just as easily as the Soviets. We should-”
“All right, Ken, all right,” President Gardner interjected. “My main objective here is to keep the dialogue open between Washington and Beijing, and it’s been strained by the accidental attack on the Bush and the situation in Pakistan -”
“And their deployment of these ASAT bases and submarines,” Phoenix cut in.
“I said hold on, Ken.” The president paused reflectively, then went on: “As you all know, as SECNAV, I disagreed with President Martindale’s executive order about U.S. space policy-I didn’t think it was necessary to, in effect, plant a flag in space and dare other nations to try to knock it down. As SECDEF and president following the American Holocaust, I didn’t want to reverse any policy decisions that might make us look weak in the eyes of the world.
“But that horrible event was eight years ago now. We may still be weaker than we were before the Russian attacks, but I believe we’re leaner and meaner, and it’s time we take a leadership position in the world again rather than sit in a corner, lick our wounds, and glare at the rest of the world with suspicion. And I’m not going to play that Cold War game of building more and more weapons because the other side fields some new weapon.”
He turned to Secretary of State Barbeau: “Stacy, you may communicate with the Chinese foreign ministers and tell them that I am forming a policy review panel to examine the U.S. National Space Policy executive order. Our purpose of the study will be to rewrite the order to make it clear to the world that the United States wants nothing more than free access to space by all nations, and that we will do nothing to jeopardize that. We want a policy that makes the deployment of antisatellite weapons, either in space or on the ground, unnecessary and detrimental to world peace and security.”
“Sir, you’re not suggesting we give up Armstrong Space Station and its defensive weapons…?”
“I think the antiballistic-missile interceptors are valuable for national security and for the protection of friends and allies,” the president said, “and I think any military unit or base should have a means of defending itself, and that includes Armstrong. Plus, all of the Earth and space imaging, reconnaissance, surveillance, and communications stuff is absolutely essential.
“But I’m willing to reconsider the notion of putting land-attack and antisatellite weapons into orbit, or at least drastically decreasing how many are in use so we don’t create an arms race in space. If we can get countries like China and Russia to agree on limiting deployment of antisatellite weapons, we can show the rest of the world that disarmament and cooperation is possible.”
“I agree with that idea, Mr. President,” Secretary of State Barbeau said. She glanced at Vice President Phoenix furtively, then added, “In fact, I think it would have that much more impact if you made it a unilateral decision: The United States will as soon as possible remove all antisatellite weapons from service, including those in Earth orbit and from ships at sea, and we call on all other nations to follow suit in the name of peace, security, and freedom of the use of outer space.” She glanced again at Phoenix long enough to see his shocked expression, then said, “I’m sure the Chinese and Russians will enthusiastically receive that proclamation, and then we can proceed with a formal arms-reduction treaty that will seek to eliminate all space weapons.”
“Why in the world do you think any nation would give up its antisatellite weapons and enter into a treaty banning such weapons if the United States unilaterally gives them up first, Madam Secretary?” Phoenix asked, obviously fighting to keep his emotions in check. “ China is furiously setting up antisatellite missile launchers all around the world because we’re so far ahead of them on space-based weapon technology. If we give those up, they have a chance to catch up. They could have years of development time before any formal treaty is signed and ratified and a verification regime put in place.”
“I’m spinning ideas here, Mr. Vice President, that’s all,” Barbeau said gaily, waving a hand at Phoenix dismissively. “As always, the devil is in the details, of course. But isn’t it easy enough to load those containers or garages or whatever you call them up again with missiles in case a fight breaks out?”
“I don’t think it’s easy at all, Madam Secretary,” Phoenix said. “It means using rockets or spaceplanes to lift them back into orbit, and astronauts doing space walks to load them into their launchers. Shipborne antisatellite missiles may be easier to redeploy, but it still takes a ship several days or even weeks to return to port for-”
“Well, as I said, Mr. Vice President, it’s all in the details, of course,” Barbeau interjected, “but I really don’t see any stumbling points to prevent this from being accomplished over time, do you, sir?” Phoenix only stared at her. She smiled back. “Neither do I. After all, we do it with nuclear weapons, nuclear laboratories, and strategic weapon systems every day.”
“Yes, but-”
“I’m sure the Chinese and Russians realize that removing the antisatellite weapons from the garages already in orbit will take some time and effort, a lot more than it would take from the land-or sub-based launchers,” Barbeau went on, “but we would commit ourselves to do it, and also to setting up a verification system on all sides to be sure it’s being accomplished to everyone’s satisfaction.” She looked at Phoenix, gave him another smile, then looked at the p
resident. “Perhaps you would consider naming the vice president to chair the review panel concerning the National Space Policy, Mr. President?”
“Excellent idea, Stacy,” President Gardner said, looking carefully at Phoenix with a thin smile. “Although he has committed to being out on the campaign trail a lot more often, I don’t think the review panel would take up too much more of his time, and he does like to keep up on the latest technology. What do you say, Ken? Interested?”
“I think there are many better-qualified folks to take on this task, Mr. President, like Conrad or Miller,” Phoenix responded after a brief but clearly uncomfortable pause. But then he nodded and said, “But I’d be happy to do it for you, Mr. President.”
“I know you wanted to lead a commission to get congressional support for the Space Defense Force stuff, Ken,” the president said, “but I don’t think the two run at odds with each other-in fact, I think they could be complementary: You want the force brought up to speed as quickly as possible, but you also want to demonstrate America’s willingness to cooperate with the world community on eliminating the offensive use of space. Sounds like a win-win to me. What do you say?”
It was obvious Phoenix knew he was being railroaded, but he still nodded enthusiastically. “I’m your guy, Mr. President. Thanks for trusting me to do the job.”
“Very good,” the president said. “Progress reports regularly, get together with Walter to get your board members cleared and seated. Stacy, you can tell the Chinese that the vice president himself will chair the policy review board. Ask that it be kept confidential for now-that’ll guarantee it’ll be leaked right away.”
OFFICE OF THE MINISTER OF NATIONAL DEFENSE, BEIJING, PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
DAYS LATER
“Welcome, welcome, General,” Chinese National Defense Minister Zung Chunxian said as General Hua Zhilun entered his office and bowed respectfully. The minister of defense extended his hand, and Hua shook it. “You’ve had a most impressive week I see. Come in and tell me about the test.”