65. Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa, 143–44.
66. Richard Sandbrook, Closing the Circle: Democratization and Development in Africa (London: Zed, 2000).
67. Three of the major leaders at Afrobarometer, Michael Bratton, Robert B. Mattes, and Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, draw evidence from the first round of these surveys that overall public opinion is supportive of democracy, though with qualification; see their Public Opinion, Democracy, and Market Reform.
68. John A. Wiseman, Democracy in Black Africa: Survival and Renewal (New York: Paragon House, 1990), 182.
69. In the Tunisian case, although the army numbered only thirty thousand, diverse police groups totaled six hundred thousand for a population of only ten million (Clement Moore Henry and Robert Springborg, Globalization and the Politics of Development in the Middle East, 2nd ed. [Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010], 196).
70. This argument is well made in Tripp, Museveni’s Uganda, 193–95.
CHAPTER 7. MORPHOLOGY OF VIOLENT CIVIL CONFLICT
1. For an earlier essay exploring this theme, see my “Contextualizing Congo Conflicts: Order and Disorder in Postcolonial Africa,” in The African Stakes of the Congo War, ed. John F. Clark (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002), 13–32.
2. Sam C. Nolutshungu, Limits of Anarchy: Intervention and State Formation in Chad Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 1996), 280–81.
3. The finest comparative study of this topic is William Reno, Warfare in Independent Africa (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011), which became available only after this manuscript was in press.
4. For examples, see Alistaire Horne, A Savage War of Peace: Algeria, 1954–1962 (London: Macmillan, 1977), and Norma Kriger, Zimbabwe’s Guerrilla War: Peasant Voices (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
5. On the UPC, the sympathetic account by Richard Joseph, Radical Nationalism in Cameroun: Social Origins of the UPC Rebellion (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1977), remains a basic source. On Mau Mau, among an abundant literature see Carl G. Rosberg and John Nottingham, Kenya: The Myth of Mau Mau (New York: Praeger, 1966), David F. Gordon, Decolonization and the State in Kenya (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1986), and Frank Furedi, The Mau Mau War in Perspective (London: James Currey, 1989). The brutality of British repression is eloquently documented by Caroline Elkins in Imperial Reckoning: The Untold Story of Britain’s Gulag in Kenya (New York: Henry Holt, 2005) and by David Anderson in Histories of the Hanged: The Dirty War in Kenya and the End of Empire (New York: Norton, 2005).
6. See in particular Tony Hodges, Western Sahara: Roots of a Desert War (Westport, CT: Lawrence Hill, 1983).
7. Jeune Afrique, 20–27 September 2009, 36–37. Algeria claims the number is 165,000.
8. These figures are provided by Gebru Tareke in The Ethiopian Revolution: War in the Horn of Africa (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2009), 229. This remarkably detailed military history of the Ethiopian wars of the 1970s and 1980s is based on information culled from the Ministry of Defense archives, which Tareke was given access to.
9. The extraordinary militarization of Eritrean society that was a product of the intensity of the societal mobilization the liberation war inspired was maintained in the form of an obligatory eighteen-month military conscription. However, Gaim Kibreab shows that in the wake of the 1998–2000 war with Ethiopia, the Eritrean regime has now indefinitely extended the conscription period, transforming the military recruits into a forced labor contingent (“Forced Labor in Eritrea,” Journal of Modern African Studies 47.1 [2009]: 41–72).
10. In my view the best single account of the multiple phases of the Angolan wars is the masterful Angola chapter by David Birmingham in Patrick Chabal et al., A History of Lusophone Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2002). Also valuable for its broad sweep of the different war phases is W. Martin James, A Political History of the Civil War in Angola, 1974–1990 (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1992).
11. See his autobiographical account, The Åfrican Dream: The Diaries of the Revolutionary War in the Congo (London: Harvill, 1999).
12. Herbert Weiss, “Zaire: Collapsed State, Surviving Society, Future Polity,” in Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority, ed. I. William Zartman (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995), 157–70. See also the comprehensive review of Congo internal wars in Emizet François Kisangani, Civil Wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo: 1960-2010 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2012).
13. On the Nigerian civil war, crucial sources are Anthony Kirk-Greene, Crisis and Conflict in Nigeria, 2 vols. (London: Oxford University Press, 1971), and John J. Stremlau, The International Politics of the Nigerian Civil War, 1967–1970 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977).
14. Daniel Jordan Smith, A Culture of Corruption: Everyday Deception and Popular Discontent in Nigeria (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), 192.
15. Smith, A Culture of Corruption, 193–94.
16. John Obert Voll and Sarah Potts Voll, The Sudan: Unity and Diversity in a Multicultural State (Boulder: Westview Press, 1985), 7–8; Robert O. Collins, A History of Modern Sudan (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
17. For contrasting perspectives on the colonial backdrop to southern insurgency, see Mohamed Omar Beshir, The Southern Sudan: Background to Conflict (London: William Blackwood and Sons, 1968), and Joseph Oduho and William Deng, The Problem of the Southern Sudan (London: Oxford University Press, 1963). See also Crawford Young, The Politics of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1976), 489–501.
18. Quoted from the report of the Commission of Inquiry into Southern Sudan disturbances, August 1955, in K. D. D. Henderson, The Sudan Republic (London: Ernest Benn, 1965), 173.
19. Oduho and Deng, The Problem of the Southern Sudan, 38.
20. Yoweri Museveni, Sowing the Mustard Seed (London: Macmillan, 1997).
21. Amii Omara-Otunnu, Politics and the Mlitary in Uganda, 1890–1985 (New York: St. Martin’s, 1987). On the subsequent functioning of the local councils, see Gina M.S. Lambright, Decentralization in Uganda: Explaining Successes and Failures (Boulder, CO: First Forum Press, 2011).
22. Thomas Ofcansky, Uganda: The Tarnished Pearl of Africa (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1996), 52.
23. Tareke, The Ethiopian Revolution, 82.
24. Tareke, The Ethiopian Revolution, 92.
25. This thesis is initially attributed to Mats Berdal and David Malone, eds., Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil War (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner , 2000). The notion was then employed by Paul Collier and others at the World Bank utilizing quantitative data.
26. The scope of American intelligence involvement in Congo-Kinshasa in the 1960 crises is documented in Madeleine G. Kalb, The Congo Cables: The Cold War in Africa from Eisenhower to Kennedy (New York: Macmillan, 1982). Larry Devlin, CIA Kinshasa station chief during a good part of this period, adds new detail in his recent autobiography, CIA Station Chief Congo, 1960–67: A Memoir (New York: Public Affairs, 2007).
27. Nolotshungu, Limits of Anarchy, 145–72.
28. I elaborate on this point in “Deciphering Disorder in Africa: Is Ethnicity the Key?,” World Politics 54.4 (2002): 532–57.
29. See the engaging comparative analysis by Christopher Clapham in “The Politics of Failure: Clientelism, Political Instability and National Integration in Liberia and Sierra Leone,” in Private Patronage and Public Power: Political Clientelism in the Modern State, ed. Christopher Clapham (New York: St. Martin’s, 1982), 176–92.
30. Jimmy D. Kandeh, “Sierra Leone’s Post-Conflict Elections of 2002,” Journal of Modern African Studies 41.2 (2003): 189–216; Jimmy D. Kandeh, “Rogue Incumbents, Donor Assistance and Sierra Leone’s Second Post-Conflict Elections of 2007,” Journal of Modern African Studies 46.4 (2008): 603–36.
31. Stephen Ellis, Mask of Anarchy: The Destruction of Liberia and the Religious Dimension of an African Civil War (New York: New York University Press, 1999), 38–
39.
32. A saying on the street at the time held that Tubman gave you ninety cents on the dollar, while Tolbert gave you only ten. The investment of large sums in a marble palace in his small home town symbolized regime excess. A 1988 visit to the site found the palace looted and surrounding infrastructure in decay.
33. Ellis, Mask of Anarchy, 64.
34. Ellis, Mask of Anarchy, 56.
35. My account here relies on the seminal analysis of William Reno, Warlord Politics and African States (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998), 113–45, and William Reno, Corruption and State Politics in Sierra Leone (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
36. In addition to works already cited, I have found especially valuable David Keen, Conflict and Collusion in Sierra Leone (Oxford, UK: James Currey, 2005), Morten Bøâs and Kevin C. Dunn, eds., African Guerrillas: Raging against the Machine (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2007), especially William Reno’s “Liberia: The LURDs of the New Church,” 69–80, Jimmy D. Kandeh, Coups from Below: Armed Subalterns and State Power in West Africa (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), Yusuf Bangura, “Strategic Policy Failure and Governance in Sierra Leone,” Journal of Modern African Studies 38.4 (2000): 551–79, Paul Richards, Fighting for the Rain Forest: War, Youth and Resources in Sierra Leone (London: International African Institute, 1996), and Paul Richards, “To Fight or to Farm? Agrarian Dimensions of the Mano River Conflicts (Liberia and Sierra Leone),” African Affairs 104.417 (2005): 571–90.
37. Ellis, Mask of Anarchy, 66–68.
38. David Harris, “From ‘Warlord’ to ‘Democratic’ President: How Charles Taylor Won the 1997 Liberian Elections,” Journal of Modern African Studies 37.3 (1999): 436.
39. Quoted in Kandeh, Coups from Below, 148.
40. Kandeh, Coups from Below, 149.
41. Bangura, “Strategic Policy Failure,” 553.
42. I employing here a distinction originally articulated by Mancur Olson relative to Chinese warlords between those who relied on a permanent base and were motivated by curry favor with local populations (stationary bandits) and those who were itinerant and thus indifferent to popular support (roving bandits), a notion used with telling effect by Thandika Mkandiwire in his excellent comparative analysis of African guerrillas, “The Terrible Toll of Post-Colonial ‘Rebel Movements’ in Africa: Towards an Explanation of the Violence Against the Peasantry,” Journal of Modern African Studies 40.2 (200): 181–216.
43. Keen, Conflict and Collusion, 249–66; Bangura, “Strategic Policy Failure,” 564–65.
44. Morten Bøâs provides a sympathetic biography of Bockarie in “Marginalized Youth,” in African Guerrillas, 39–54.
45. Reno, “Liberia,” 73.
46. David Harris, “Liberia 2005: An Unusual African Post-Conflict Election,” Journal of Modern African Studies 44.3 (2006): 376.
47. In 2008 interviews with women leaders in Liberia, Aili Mari Tripp found not just their numbers but their real influence in state management exceptional, concluding that this was a positive omen for postconflict consolidation.
48. According to data collected by international human rights law specialist Jeremy Leavitt, who worked with the Liberian Truth and Reconciliation Commission, in “Illicit Peace: Violence, Conflict Resolution, Peace Settlements, and Gender,” presentation at University of Wisconsin Law School, 9 October 2009.
49. Richards, “To Fight or to Farm,” 576. See also Laurel Stovel, “‘There’s No Bad Bush to Throw away a Bad Child’: Tradition-Inspired Reintegration in Post-War Sierra Leone,” Journal of Modern African Studies 46.2 (2008): 305–24.
50. Philippe Decraene, “Specificités somaliennes,” Revue Française d’Études Politiques Africaine 10.115 (1975): 29–40. See also his more extended monograph, L’expérience socialiste somaliennes (Paris: Berger-Levrault, 1977); for a more critical perspective, see Ahmed Samatar, Socialist Somalia: Rhetoric and Reality (London: Zed, 1988).
51. I. M. Lewis, A Pastoral Democracy: A Study of Pastoralism and Politics among the Northern Somali of the Horn of Africa (London: Oxford University Press, 1961), remains the classic source on the structure of Somali society.
52. Hussein M. Adam, “Somalia: A Terrible Beauty Being Born?,” in Collapsed States, 73.
53. Marcus V. Hoehne provides a valuable guide to northern Somalia in “Mimesis and Mimicry in Northern Somalia,” Africa 79.2 (2009): 252–81.
54. For an analysis of what he views as counterproductive American strategies in Somalia, see Bronwyn Bruton, “In the Quicksands of Somalia,” Foreign Affairs 88.6 (2009): 79–94.
55. Roland Marchal, “Islamic Political Dynamics in the Somali Civil War,” in Islam ism and Its Enemies in the Horn of Africa, ed. Alex de Waal (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2004), 119. The essay provides a valuable account of the rise of Islamism in Somalia during the crisis years.
56. Africa Research Bulletin, Economic, Technical and Financial Series 47, 9 (16 September–15 October 2010), 18845.
57. Economist, 18–24 February 2011, 74.
58. Ladan Affi, “State Collapse, Civil War, and the Role of Diaspora Somalis,” African Studies colloquium, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 25 March 2009.
59. New York Times, 30 December 2009; Jeffrey Gettleman, “The Pirates Are Winning,” New York Review of Books, 14 October 2010, 35–36.
60. Bruton, “In the Quicksands of Somalia,” 79.
61. An excellent account is found in Hoehne, “Mimesis and Mimicry.”
62. Riikka Koskenmäki, “Legal Implications Resulting from State Failure in Light of the Case of Somalia,” Nordic Journal of International Law 73.1 (2004), 1–36, cited in Hoehne, “Mimesis and Mimicry,” 255.
63. Again, I rely on Hoehne, “Mimesis and Mimicry,” 261–66.
64. Jok Maduk Jok, Sudan: Race, Religion, and Violence (Oxford, UK: Oneworld, 2007), 78. Other useful sources on the second civil war include Ruth Iyob and Gilbert M. Khadia gala, Sudan: The Elusive Quest for Peace (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006), and Lam Akol, Southern Sudan: Colonialism, Resistance and Autonomy (Trenton, NJ: World Sea Press, 2007).
65. Francis Deng, War of Visions: Conflict of Identities in the Sudan (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995), provides biographical detail on Garang.
66. Sharon Hutchinson, Nuer Dilemmas: Coping with Money, War, and the State (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996), 144.
67. Alex de Waal and A. H. Abdel Salam, “Islamism, State Power and Jihad in Sudan,” in Islamism and Its Enemies, 112. The authors paint a compelling intellectual portrait of Turabi, holder of a Paris doctorate, whose Islamist philosophy contains echoes of extremist Sayyid Qutb yet also suggests a compatibility with women’s rights and democracy.
68. Deng, War of Visions, 233. Hutchinson (Nuer Dilemmas, especially 103–57) further attests to the extraordinary brutality and devastation. She conducted field research in the Nuer areas during the early 1990s.
69. For a thorough account of the extreme complexity of southern militia divisions and alliances, see Matthew B. Arnold, “The South Sudan Defence Force: Patriots, Collaborators or Spoilers?” Journal of Modern African Studies 45.4 (2007): 489–516.
70. Collins, A History of Modern Sudan, 194–99.
71. The original oil corporation that developed the southern deposits was Chevron, which departed in the mid-1980s because of the insecurity, abandoning substantial investments in the oil fields to a succession of consortiums, which eventually came to be dominated by Chinese and Malaysian operatives.
72. Hutchinson was part of a team that assembled documentation and filed a lawsuit against a Canadian oil firm for the ethnic cleansing of the Nuer population in one of the oil fields.
73. Sharon Hutchinson and Jok Madut Jok, “Gendered Violence and the Militarization of Ethnicity: A Case Study from South Sudan,” in Postcolonial Subjectivities in Africa, ed. Richard Werbner (London: Zed, 2002), 84–108; Sharon Hutchinson and Jok Madut Jok, “Sudan’s Prolonged Second Civil War and the Militarization of Nuer an
d Dinka Identities,” African Studies Review 42.2 (1999): 124–45.
74. Sharon Hutchinson, personal communication.
75. Sharon Hutchinson, personal communication.
76. For valuable summaries, see Gérard Chaliand, Darfur: The Ambiguous Genocide (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2005), Iyob and Khadiagala, Sudan, and Oystein H. Rolandsen, “Sudan, the Janjawid and Government Militias,” in African Guerrillas, 151–70.
77. de Waal and Abdel Salaam, “Islamism,” 198.
78. The Congo wars are richly documented; see especially Filip Reyntjens, The Great African War: Congo and Regional Geopolitics, 1996–2008 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), Gérard Prunier, Africa’s World War: Congo, the Rwandan Genocide, and the Making of a Continental Catastrophe (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), Thomas Turner, The Congo Wars: Conflct, Myth and Reality (London: Zed, 2007), Kisangani, Civil Wars, and Jean-Claude Willame, La guerre du Kivu: Vues de la salle climatisée et de la veranda (Brussels: GRIP, 2010).
79. Coltan is an amalgam of two rare minerals, columbium and tantalite, whose value soared thanks to its use in cell phones and some other electronic goods.
80. UN Security Council, “Final Report of the Panel of Experts on the Illegal Exploi tation of Natural Resources and Other Forms of Wealth of the Democratic Republic of the Congo,” S/2002/1146, 16 October 2002, 7.
81. The Kinshasa rumor mill flooded with reports that Joseph was only an adopted son, whose real parentage was Rwandan. Erik Kennes provides convincing refutation of this persistent rumor in his remarkably detailed biography of the elder Kabila, Essai biographique sur Laurent Désiré Kabila (Paris: L’Harmattan, 2003).
82. See the scathing critique by Theodore Trefon in Congo Masquerade: The Political Culture of Aid Inefficiency and Reform Failure (London: Zed, 2011).
83. The war in Acholiland is also well documented. See especially Aili Mari Tripp, Museveni’s Uganda: Paradoxes of Power in a Hybrid Regime (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2010), Heiki Behrend, Alice Lakwema and the Holy Spirits: War in Northern Uganda, 1986– 97 (Oxford, UK: James Curry, 1999), Sverker Finnström, Living with Bad Surroundings: War, History, and Everyday Moments in Northern Uganda (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2008), Kevin C. Dunn, “Uganda: The Lord’s Resistance Army,” in African Guerrillas, 131–49, and Ruddy Doom and Koen Vlassenroot, “Kony’s Message: A New Koine,?” African Affairs 98.390 (1999): 5–36.
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