“According to the Wahhabi view, it is a Muslim’s religious duty to cultivate enmity between oneself and unbelievers. Hatred of unbelievers is the proof that the believer has completely disassociated from them. A work entitled Loyalty and Dissociation in Islam, compiled by the Ibn Taymiya Library in Riyadh and distributed by the King Fahd–supported Islamic Center of Washington, D.C., states emphatically: ‘To be dissociated from the infidels is to hate them for their religion, to leave them, never to rely on them for support, not to admire them, to be on one’s guard against them, never to imitate them, and to always oppose them in every way according to Islamic law.’”241
How Many Radicals Are There in the U.S.?
All that said, let me again be crystal clear: not all Muslim children who attend Islamic schools in the U.S., Europe, or the Middle East are being indoctrinated with violent jihadist theology. To the contrary, the vast majority of the 1.3 billion Muslims in the world are peaceful, friendly people who pose no threat to the U.S. or to Western lives or interests. Indeed, it is the very premise of this book that while Radicals who believe and preach that “Islam is the answer, and jihad is the way” are incredibly dangerous, they represent only one segment of the Muslim world and need to be understood within the context of other powerful regional and global trends.
The big question is, just how many Radicals are out there, compared to the number of Muslims who are peaceable and nonthreatening?
To get a handle on the answer, let us look first at the situation inside the U.S.
In 2007, the Pew Research Center published the largest and most comprehensive study of Muslim American opinion ever done, involving nearly sixty thousand interviews with Muslim Americans conducted in English, Arabic, Farsi, and Urdu. The study, entitled “Muslims in America: Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream,” found that there are an estimated 2.35 million Muslims in the U.S. and that they are “largely assimilated, happy with their lives, and moderate with respect to many of the issues that have divided Muslims and Westerners around the world.” The study also found that “Muslims in the United States reject Islamic extremism by larger margins than do Muslim minorities in Western European countries.” For example, nearly seven in ten Muslims in America (68 percent) had a “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” view of al Qaeda.242
This was good news, to be sure. But in the current environment, it must be asked: why was it not 100 percent? Deeply troubling, in fact, was that fully 5 percent of all Muslims in America admitted to the pollsters that they had a favorable view of al Qaeda. This included 7 percent of American converts to Islam and 9 percent of African-American Muslims. Moreover, nearly three in ten (27 percent) said they either didn’t know or refused to answer the question about their view of al Qaeda. Out of 2,350,000 Muslims, this means there are at least 117,500 Muslims inside the U.S. who like what Osama bin Laden and his colleagues are doing and have a favorable view of their terrorist network. If those who refused to answer the question were disguising their own support for al Qaeda, there could be another 600,000 or more Radical Muslims or Radical-leaning Muslims or sympathizers inside the country.
To their credit, the Pew researchers pushed further, trying to clarify the issue. They asked whether Muslims in the U.S. believed suicide bombings against civilian targets were ever justified. Again, the good news was that the majority said no, never. The bad news was that this majority was only 78 percent. A stunning 9 percent refused even to answer the question. The remainder—some 13 percent—indicated they believed suicide bombings against innocent civilians are justified sometimes (7 percent), often (1 percent), or rarely but not never (5 percent). Also troubling was that the study found younger Muslims—those between the ages of eighteen and twenty-nine—were more religiously observant and more Radical. Fully 7 percent of younger Muslims held favorable views of al Qaeda, and a terrifying 15 percent of them said they believe suicide bombings are sometimes or often justified.
Now, translate those percentages into numbers of real people, and you can begin to see the potential magnitude of the Radical threat inside the United States:
• 23,500 Muslims in America believe suicide bombings against civilians are often justified.
• 164,500 Muslims in America believe suicide bombings against civilians are sometimes justified.
• 211,500 Muslims in America refused to answer the question.
How Many Radicals Are There in Europe?
The U.S. is not the Radicals’ only target, of course. Great Britain also faces an enormous threat.
On July 7, 2005, a series of suicide bombings ripped through London’s subway and bus systems during morning rush hour traffic, leaving fifty-two dead and some seven hundred wounded. It was a horrifying tragedy, as well as a bracing wake-up call to British authorities who for too long had seemed to ignore the magnitude of the problem.243
British intelligence and homeland security services immediately launched a massive counterterrorism research effort—code-named Project Rich Picture—to determine just how many Radicals they were dealing with. The results were chilling. Of the roughly 1.6 million Muslims in the U.K. today, an estimated one-half of one percent are al Qaeda sympathizers. While that may not seem like a large number at first glance, British officials are quick to note that it means there are as many as eight thousand future terrorists and suicide bombers in Great Britain today.244
MI5—Britain’s equivalent of the FBI—which has seen its staff grow from less than two thousand in 2001 to thirty-five hundred in 2008, “is trying to drill down and identify those who may be coming into contact with radical sources,” a British security source told the Independent. “You only have to look at the background of the 7 July London terrorists to see the speed to which radicalization can take place. Some of those who blew themselves up were spotted, recruited, and radicalized within a year.”245
Of further concern is the fact that as many as three thousand British-born or British-based Radicals have already been trained in al Qaeda training camps.246
But MI5 may actually be understating the magnitude of the threat. A confidential report on “Young Muslims and Extremism,” produced by the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office/Home Office and presented to then prime minister Tony Blair in 2004, found that some ten thousand Brits have attended Islamic extremist conferences and that “compared with the population as a whole, Muslims have three times the unemployment rates, the lowest economic activity rates . . . and a higher concentration in deprived areas.”247
The prime minister’s advisors analyzed six British public opinion surveys conducted between November 2001 and March 2004 to better understand the attitudes of British Muslims on a variety of topics. The good news, the report found, was that “the great majority of British Muslims (up to 85 percent) regarded terrorist attacks on Western targets, including the 9/11 attacks, as unjustified. The great majority (up to 87 percent) felt loyal to Britain. A majority felt patriotic (67 percent) and thought it wrong for British Muslims to fight against allies in Afghanistan (62 percent). A survey of young Muslims in 2001 showed strong feelings of outrage at the 9/11 attacks and that the majority believed that Islam either prohibited or discouraged such attacks.”
But as in the American study conducted by the Pew Research Center, there was bad news in the British surveys as well.
• “A minority of [British] Muslims defend terrorism (up to 13 percent) . . . and a minority did not feel loyal to Britain (up to 26 percent).”
• “Between 7 and 15 percent [of British Muslims] thought the September 11 attacks were justified.”
• “Between 7 and 13 percent thought further terrorist attacks would be justified.”
• “Between 15 and 24 percent thought it was okay for British Muslims to fight with the Taliban.”
The study concluded that “the number of British Muslims actively engaged in terrorist activity, whether at home or abroad, or supporting such activity is extremely small and estimated at less than one percent.”
Some in Britain are losing hope, believing that Radicals are taking over and that there may be no way to stop them. In February 2008, for example, Dr. Rowan Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury, told the BBC that it was time for the British people to “face up to the fact” that eventual adoption of Sharia law in the United Kingdom “seems unavoidable.”248
Others, including widely respected scholars and historians, worry that all of Europe is in danger of being controlled by Islam. In January 2007, renowned Middle East historian Bernard Lewis shocked the Western world by warning that Muslims “seem to be about to take over Europe.” The real question, he said, is this: “Will it be an Islamized Europe or Europeanized Islam?” In other words, will the Europe of the future be run by the Radicals or the Reformers? “Europeans are losing their own loyalties and their own self-confidence,” Lewis said. “They have no respect for their own culture.” Europeans, he added, have “surrendered” on every issue with regard to Islam.249
Today, 16 million Muslims live in Europe, and the risk of more Radical-driven terrorism in Europe remains. It may even be growing.250 Polling conducted throughout Europe in 2006 and 2007, for example, indicated that:
• 15 percent of Muslims in the U.K. believed suicide bombings against civilian targets were sometimes or often justified.
• 16 percent of Muslims in France believed suicide bombings against civilian targets were sometimes or often justified.
• 16 percent of Muslims in Spain believed suicide bombings against civilian targets were sometimes or often justified.
• 7 percent of Muslims in Germany believed suicide bombings against civilian targets were sometimes or often justified. 251
Another survey found the following:
• 40 percent of Muslims in Great Britain believe Iran should have nuclear weapons.
• 29 percent of Muslims in France believe Iran should have nuclear weapons.
• 14 percent of Muslims in Germany believe Iran should have nuclear weapons. 252
How Many Radicals Are There Worldwide?
In 2007, authors John Esposito and Dalia Mogahed published a book entitled Who Speaks for Islam? What a Billion Muslims Really Think. Esposito is a professor of Islamic studies at Georgetown University and founding director of the school’s Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding. Mogahed, herself a devout Muslim, is executive director of the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies.
As they stated in their introduction, “This book is the product of a mammoth, multiyear Gallup research study. Between 2001 and 2007, Gallup conducted tens of thousands of hour-long, face-to-face interviews with residents of more than 35 nations that are predominantly Muslim or have substantial Muslim populations. . . . In totality, we surveyed a sample representing more than 90 percent of the world’s 1.3 billion Muslims, making this the largest, most comprehensive study of contemporary Muslims ever done.”253
What these two scholars discovered was fascinating . . . and sobering.
First, the good news. After asking scores of different questions to test attitudes and intentions, the Gallup poll revealed that upwards of 93 percent of Muslims worldwide fit Esposito and Mogahed’s definition of a “moderate”—that is, peaceable, nonviolent, and traditionally religious but unlikely to pose a threat to Western security interests. In Egypt, for example, 94 percent of Muslims said they would like to have a constitution that would guarantee “allowing all citizens to express their opinion on the political, social, and economic issues of the day.” In Iran, 93 percent said they wanted such personal and political freedom, as did 90 percent of Muslims in Indonesia, the world’s largest Islamic country. In Turkey, 93 percent of Muslims believe women should have the right to vote, as do 89 percent of Muslims in Iran and 90 percent in Bangladesh. Nine in ten Muslims in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Lebanon believe that women should have the same legal rights as men.254 All very good news, indeed.
Now the bad news. While the overwhelming majority of Muslims worldwide are moderates, about 7 percent would be classified as Radicals. That is, they are supportive of anti-American and anti-Western terrorism, believe it is fully justified, and thus are sympathetic of and potentially helpful to violent Islamic extremists. This is the pool from which current Radical jihadists are recruiting future jihadists, and thus they pose a serious threat to Western security interests.
“According to the Gallup poll, 7 percent of [Muslim] respondents think that the 9/11 attacks were ‘completely’ justified and view the United States unfavorably,” Esposito and Mogahed concluded. “By focusing on the 7 percent, whom we’ll call ‘the politically radicalized,’ we are not saying that all in this group commit acts of violence. However, those with extremist views are a potential source for recruitment or support for terrorist groups. . . . They are also more likely to view other civilian attacks as justifiable.”255
At first glance, 7 percent may seem like a relatively small number. But the implications of such results are staggering. Seven percent of 1.3 billion Muslims equals 91 million people. It may comfort people to know that the vast majority of the world’s Muslims are peaceful people. But how comforting is it to know that 91 million Muslims are “politically radicalized”? After all, were these 91 million people to form their own country—the Islamic Republic of Radicalstan, say—they would represent the twelfth largest country on the planet, having twice the population of Spain, nearly three times the population of Canada, almost ten times the population of Sweden, and more than twelve times the population of Israel.256
Extensive polling also found that the Radicals were not necessarily more religious than moderate Muslims; nor did they necessarily attend mosque more frequently or read the Qur’an more often. They were simply differently religious. That is, they were fully devoted to a radicalized interpretation of the Qur’an, such as the theologies taught by the Ayatollah Khomeini, Sayyid Qutb, and Osama bin Laden.
Moreover, these Radicals do not tend to be poor, uneducated, unsophisticated people living in some hovel somewhere, though there are certainly Radicals who come from impoverished backgrounds. According to the Gallup poll data, the typical profile of a Radical today is actually very much like Ahmed Omar Abu Ali—young, male, smart, college educated, financially well-off, technologically literate, highly mobile, deeply determined, and thus incredibly dangerous. According to the study:
• 49 percent of political Radicals are between the ages of eighteen and twenty-nine.
• 62 percent are male, while 37 percent are female.
• 67 percent have secondary education or higher.
• 65 percent say they have average or above-average income.257
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Muslims in America
77% are U.S. citizens
65% were born overseas
56% are under 40 years of age
23% of Muslims in America are converts
59% of converts are African-Americans
34% are white
7% other
55% of converts become Sunnis
6% of converts become Shias
49% converted before the age of twenty-one
34% between ages of twenty-one and thirty-five
only 17% of converts are thirty-six or older
Of all foreign-born Muslims in the U.S.:
24% are from Arab countries
8% are from Iran
8% are from Pakistan
4% from India
3% from Bangladesh
the rest are from a range of other countries
Why did they come?
26% of foreign-born Muslims say they came to the U.S. for educational opportunities
24% for economic o
pportunities
24% for family reasons
20% because of conflict or persecution
What kind of Muslims are they?
50% of Muslims in America say they are Sunnis
16% say they are Shias
22% say they have no affiliation
the rest were a potpourri of other traditions or would not say
53% say it has gotten harder to be a Muslim in the U.S. since 9/11
25% say they have been personally discriminated against in the U.S.
73% say they have suffered no discrimination in the U.S.
How devout?
41% pray five times a day
40% attend mosque once a week or more
26% go less than once a week
34% never go
77% of Iranian Muslims never go to mosque—only 7% go once a week
57% of Pakistani Muslims go to mosque more than once a week—14% never go
How political?
63% are Democrats or lean Democratic (71% voted for Kerry in 2004)
11% are Republican or lean Republican (only 14% voted for Bush in 2004)
26% are independents
43% believe mosques should express political views, while 49% say they should stay out of political issues
[Source: Andrew Kohut, “Muslims in America: Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream,” Pew Research Center, May 22, 2007]
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Chapter Eleven
Revolution 2.0
The rise of Ayatollah Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Inside the Revolution Page 17