by James Rosone
Many of the leaders who had come to power in the decades following the fall of communism had a history of going out of their way to enrich themselves rather than focusing on lifting up the people of their countries. Prime Minister Groysman was an exception to this rule. Ambassador Duncan saw in the man an intelligent visionary who truly wanted what was best for his people; he hoped he would stay in power for several more years.
As Duncan lifted his mug to his mouth, he took a deep breath through his nose to inhale the aromatic steam before taking a sip. He was a bit of a coffee connoisseur (his friends occasionally joked that he was a java snob), and for some reason the Prime Minister seemed to have a lock on the best coffee he had ever tasted. He had tried on numerous occasions to find out who his supplier was, but Groysman held onto that information like a closely guarded state secret.
“Mr. Ambassador, thank you for meeting with us this Saturday. As you know, it has been a trying time in Ukraine these past several weeks.” His face was solemn. “I assume you have reviewed the military plans to end the conflict in the east?” he asked.
“I have, Mr. Prime Minister. As a diplomat, I still recommend caution. Although the window may be closing, I do believe a peaceful solution to this conflict is possible. A military operation could result in hundreds of thousands of people being displaced as refugees, not to mention the civilian casualties that would surely be suffered,” Ambassador Rice warned. Duncan wanted to make sure the PM fully understand the consequences of moving forward with a military operation.
Groysman stiffened. He nodded in acceptance of what Ambassador Rice had said. “We are in a tough situation, Ambassador Rice. This conflict has been going on for several years. It has ruined our economy and divided our country. The separatist regions are governed by a small group of leaders, and they are controlled by a group of militias that number roughly ten to twelve thousand members. Unfortunately, the Russians continue to arm and train them. There are even unofficial Russian combat units operating in the East. If we do not act soon, they will become too strong and the divide in our nation will become permanent.”
The PM continued, “We have spent the last four months getting ready to conduct this operation. With the Russians putting forth a renewed effort to go after ISIS in Syria, they are currently sufficiently distracted from intervening here any further. Your own CIA does not believe the Russians will intervene militarily. Therefore, with the military advisors and training your country has provided, and the substantial number of weapons, food, fuel and vehicles your country has given us these past months, we now feel we are ready to move forward with the operation.” Groysman paused to take a sip of his coffee, as if the group was discussing their weekend plans and not a war.
He placed his coffee cup down and looked Ambassador Rice in the eyes, “In forty-eight hours, we will begin the operation. Our forces will begin to move into the Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Donetsk regional state administrations.”
This made it official. Duncan sat there for a moment, not sure what to say. “This is a dangerous move,” he thought. “It will certainly result in a military confrontation between separatist fighters and the Ukrainian military, but it could also result in a direct confrontation between the ‘unofficial’ Russian forces that are not ‘officially’ in the Ukraine. This is the exact situation I desperately wanted to avoid.”
Duncan put his own coffee down. He leaned forward, returning Groysman’s unrelenting eye contact. “Mr. Prime Minister, I implore upon you one last time to reconsider this action. We are starting to make headway with the Russians. Through the sanctions, we can get them to end their support for the separatist movement on their own. Then the movement will die and lose support.” He could see by the expression on his face that the PM did not want to wait any longer. “I ask for you to give diplomacy more time,” he pleaded, placing his hand over his heart. Duncan hoped that he might somehow be able to sway the man before him from making this potentially disastrous decision.
As Groysman sat there listening to the American Ambassador, he couldn’t help but marvel at how determined Ambassador Rice was to see a diplomatic solution to what everyone could see was a military problem. He sighed before speaking. “Ambassador Rice. I greatly appreciate the efforts of yourself and others to help solve the problems in Ukraine via diplomacy, but you must see that this has now moved to a problem that must be solved militarily. There are limits.”
The Prime Minister then leaned forward. “General Luka, along with my senior military advisors, assure me that our military is now up-to-speed and ready to handle this. We have received hundreds of Javelin anti-tank missile systems, fuel, food and other needed equipment to sustain a military operation such as this.” Groysman could see the diplomat was saddened by this information. “The Russians are now involved in the Syrian conflict, they are finally too busy to get heavily involved in our conflict. This is not 2014, and America has a new President, one who will not back down to threats made by President Petrov.”
Duncan could see the PM was not going to change his mind, so he changed tactics, “If I cannot talk you out of this military operation, then how can we support you to ensure its success?” Duncan hated the idea of offering military aid, but the Secretary of State and the President had told him in no uncertain terms that if he could not persuade the Ukrainian Prime Minister to avoid a military operation, then he was to offer whatever support would be necessary to guarantee its success.
PM Groysman leaned back in his chair. “I hold all the cards now,” he realized. “After all, the new American President does not want to lose face with the Russians. With all of the allegations of him being a Russian puppet after their meddling in the American election, he needs to look strong. They are eating out of my hands now.”
“Ambassador Rice, thank you for your offer. I truly do wish we could have found a diplomatic solution, and I will rely on your help once the time comes to pursue a diplomatic end to the conflict. Right now, I must do what the people who elected me are demanding, uniting our country and putting down this separatist movement.”
Groysman paused for a moment, calculating what he could ask for. “What I will need American help with is intelligence. We need help with surveillance, supplies, and logistical support while my ground forces carry out the actual fighting.”
Sighing, Duncan replied, “Well, you know that I wanted to try and talk you out of this confrontation. However, seeing that I cannot, I want to make sure it succeeds. I will hand over the rest of this discussion to General Luka and Colonel Avery, the US Air Force Liaison Officer to the Embassy,” the Ambassador said, nodding towards his two military counterparts for them to speak up.
He had to give them both credit; they were true professionals. Not once did they try to interrupt or add anything more to the discussion. They sat there passively and waited for their turn to talk, knowing that it would come. They knew the Ukrainians were not interested in further peace talks, but they also knew every effort had to be made before they moved forward with the military option.
General Luka cleared his throat before speaking. “Mr. Prime Minister and General Popko, as you know, the US leased the former military airbase at Pryluky, roughly seventy miles from the Boryspil International Airport in Kiev. We have spent the last two and a half months rebuilding it, transforming it into a training facility and forward operating base for the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to support your operations. Now that military action is going to move forward, you should go ahead and assign those ten Liaison Officers (LNOs) we had previously talked about, along with additional interpreters.” General Popko had been expecting the request. He smiled and nodded in agreement.
The Pryluky airfield had been Ukraine's primary Tupolev Tu-160 “Blackjack” bomber base until it was decommissioned at the end of 2012 due to budget cuts. When the US and NATO wanted to lease the base and build it back up, it was seen as a huge economic boon to the cash-strapped central government. It brought
thousands of high-paying jobs to the local area and imported thousands of NATO servicemen who would spend hard currency (Euros and US Dollars) in the surrounding area. It was estimated the base would bring in several hundred million Euros a year in economic activity alone.
The Air Force LNO spoke next. “We have eight Predator drones, two Reapers, and two Global Hawks that are ready to provide 24/7 ‘round the clock surveillance of the battlefield as your forces move forward. We also have several electronic surveillance tools that will be made available. As we spoke about previously, starting tomorrow, we are going to close off the airbase to all non-essential personnel. We want to minimize the chance of any separatist forces gaining access to the base,” he said as he showed some of the plans they had for securing the airbase.
The Ukrainian government had leased the facility (much to the angst of the Russians) to the US three and a half months ago. The base was in a bad state of repairs when the Americans took it over. Then, a fleet of contractors and military engineers showed up and the base began to transform overnight. They immediately began to modernize the base, rebuilding living quarters and offices and upgrading the runway and other aircraft facilities. The US and NATO collectively poured in roughly $80 million to the facility, transforming it into a modern military facility.
“When your forces head into the disputed territory on Monday, they will have constant drone surveillance and signals intelligence, we’ll help you root these separatists out in short order,” the Air Force Colonel said, confident that this military operation would be wrapped up before the end of the year.
While Ambassador Duncan sat there listening to the military members talk, he had a sick feeling in his stomach that things were not going to work out quite as well as everyone thought it would. “I hope I’m wrong,” he thought, “but military operations seldom turn out how they are supposed to. The enemy always gets a vote in the matter, too.”
The group continued to talk for a while longer, going over details about the logistical support that would be needed. There was some debate as to what would be provided by the Americans versus NATO, but at the end of the day, a complete plan had been formalized.
Donetsk
06 August 2017
Donetsk, Ukraine
The air was musty and humid as a group of well-muscled men and women sat in an old Soviet Union underground bunker in Donetsk. During the Cold War, this hideaway had been used as an air defense command center to help coordinate the air defense of the Motherland. Now it served as a secretive meeting room for the various leaders and rebel commanders of the Russian separatist movement.
Alexander Zakharchenko, the self-appointed Prime Minister of Donetsk People's Republic, pulled his lighter out of his cargo pocket and proceeded to ignite another cigarette. He took a long pull, letting the smoke fill his lungs as his body absorbed the nicotine. As he slowly let the smoke out through his nostrils, he turned to Anton Antyufeyev and said, “If what Strelkov says is true, then we have a serious problem.”
Anton took a puff from his own cigarette and just nodded. “We need to mobilize our militias and get ready to meet the government forces when they start to move into the cities and surrounding villages.”
Alexander continued smoking as he replied, “We backed down in Kharkiv, and they killed Oleksandr Prasolov. They believe that they succeeded in crushing our movement in Kharkiv, but they did not. Now the government thinks they can replicate the success that we gave them there and throughout our area of control. What they fail to realize is that we allowed them a victory in Kharkiv--we chose to not to use our soldiers in retaliation for killing Prasolov. We will not make that same choice here.”
Strelkov leaned forward and looked Alexander in the eyes, saying, “This will be different, Alex. They are not sending a small contingent of soldiers to help augment the police like they did in Kharkiv. They are sending a much larger military force with the intent of engaging our soldiers and either forcing us to surrender or flee across the border--”
Pavel interrupted to add, “--We must mobilize our militias and tell the Russians to be ready to help us.”
Strelkov cut Pavel off before he could say anything else. “Pavel, sit down and speak when spoken to. I am not done yet,” he grunted, annoyed at being interrupted before he could speak his piece. He had valuable information and these guys were not letting him have a chance to spit it out.
Pavel looked startled, but he sat down obediently.
Strelkov continued, “Look, my contact in the Ukrainian military said the Americans have spent the last four months getting them ready to come root us out. They have provided them with Stingers, vehicles, anti-tank missiles, and other heavy weapons. They are also going to offer them several hundred military advisors and surveillance drone support. The advisors are almost exclusively American Special Forces and infantry soldiers. They mean business, and these are soldiers who know what they are doing.” He wanted to make sure they fully understood that this was not going to be the same ragtag government soldiers they had been fighting against up to this point. This was going to be a newly-trained and well-equipped military force, advised by American combat veterans.
Those around him nodded resolutely. They were preparing themselves for a true battle.
Strelkov surveyed the faces before him. Satisfied that they were adequately concerned, he went on, “They are going to deploy the 30th Mechanized Brigade and the 1st Tank Brigade to lead the assault. These units will be supported by roughly 9,000 light infantry soldiers. My source in the 30th said they are also going to have nearly 100 American Special Forces advisors and another 300 NATO advisors with them on a daily basis.” He showed them images on his tablet of the new equipment the units had received, including images of the venerable American Javelin anti-tank missile system, which would all but negate any advantage they had enjoyed up to this point.
Strelkov waited a moment for the images to sink in before he resumed. “Judging by the number of advisors, it looks like each platoon level element will have either an American or NATO advisor with them. They will be coordinating surveillance drones, artillery, and air support for them, just like they do for the Iraqis and Afghans in the Middle East.”
Alexander whistled softly. “I still cannot believe the Americans supplied them with what looks like 45 Strykers and 80 MRAP vehicles,” he said in disbelief and anger.
Strelkov just nodded. “They can still be destroyed; the Americans learned that in Iraq. However, the Strykers and MRAPs are going to make it a lot harder for us to engage them,” he explained in disgust.
Changing topics, Strelkov pulled up a new set of photos on his tablet. “As you know, PM Groysman leased the old Pryluky Air Base to NATO several months ago. As you can see from these photos, NATO and the Americans have been busy. The Germans moved a squadron of Eurofighters to the base and the US has established a Patriot missile battery there as well.” On the screen flashed images of American soldiers setting up the Patriot system and unloading various types of military equipment.
“You can see they have also moved a number of drones to the base. We can assume the Americans will be providing the government forces with a lot of intelligence gathering support. Most of these drones can be armed, but we do not believe the Americans are going to be providing the government with armed drones.”
There was a collective sigh of relief by everyone in the room. The last thing any of them wanted was for the central government to be armed with American drones carrying out assassination missions like they did in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world.
The group sat back in their chairs then, quietly digesting the information Strelkov had just shared. They were not quite sure what to say or do just yet. Strelkov’s sources were good; if they had passed this information to him, then chances were, it was accurate. This was going to happen. Strelkov was a Colonel in the Russian GRU (military intelligence), and he had developed an effective method of collecting intelligence throughout the Ukrainian military over
the years. Mostly, he just bribed them with American dollars and they told him whatever he wanted to know. He was also the primary point of contact between the separatist forces and the GRU, which routinely provided their group with as much accurate and up-to-date intelligence as possible.
Igor Bezler had not said anything up to this point. He cleared his throat to get the attention of everyone at the table before speaking. “Now that everyone has heard the information Strelkov has to share, we must formalize a plan for what we are going to do. The Russian army can deliver thousands of additional RPG-7s and other heavy weapons to help us turn the surrounding villages approaching Donetsk into a fortress. However, we know that this battle will have to be fought by the separatist forces. Russian paramilitary forces are and will continue to act as active advisors, but the army will not send uniformed forces into the Ukraine.”
Igor was the paramilitary representative to the separatists. Igor had a Spetsnaz background himself, and had spent over two decades in the Russian Special Forces. He had nearly 200 fellow Spetsnaz operating in the Ukraine, mostly to carry out specialized missions against Ukrainian military units when they strayed into separatist-held territory. They also helped to run several of the training camps, teaching specialized courses in sniper operations, explosives, kidnappings, and other advanced activities.
The next man to speak was Taras Kolomoisky. He ran what was arguably one of the most stable separatist regions. He maintained an uneasy peace between the separatist movement and the central government by trying to play both sides. In the past, he had often strived to be an honest broker between the two groups. However, his son had been killed by central government soldiers nine months ago; he was trapped at a checkpoint trying to re-enter the separatist region, and when he refused to pay the bribe that they demanded, they shot him. While the death of his son tore him apart, what really caused him to throw his lot fully behind the rebel cause was the rape of his daughter two months later. The sons of two prominent law makers in the central government attacked his daughter while she attended a university in Switzerland. Whatever restraint Taras had been trying to maintain in the hopes of achieving a peaceful end to the conflict had been evaporated by these two events.