by James Rosone
“The Ukrainians have some armored and mechanized forces that can be used; however, they are not up to strength for stopping a Russian armored division. My military recommendation is this…we should not engage the Russians immediately. If we do, we will be defeated. We should wait until we can get sufficient forces in Ukraine and then we give them our ultimatum or be forcibly removed. I recommend we immediately deploy the 173rd Airborne Brigade out of Italy to our airbase at Pryluky. We should also get the 2nd Cavalry Regiment stationed at Vilseck, Germany, on the road ASAP. They can be at the airbase in roughly 30 hours. I recommend we begin the deployment of the 3rd infantry division and the 1st armored division as well. It will take time to get them deployed to Europe, so we should act quickly,” General Hillman explained.
President Gates turned to Secretary of Defense, James Castle. “Jim, I value your advice and opinion on military matters. What do you believe I should do? How would you approach this situation?”
Castle sat forward in his chair. “During the Cold War, the US ran a deployment exercise called Reforger. We essentially role-played a scenario of the Russians invading West Germany and the beginning of a hypothetical World War III, running up a massive mobilization and deployment of our forces from the US to Europe. I recommend that we initiate Reforger now, in real life. If we are able to negotiate a peaceful solution, then great. This will have simply been a tremendous training exercise (one that I might add we have not conducted since 1993). If things do turn into a shooting war, then we will be well on our way to having the forces and equipment either on the way to Europe or already in place.”
The President added, “My concern is that all of the preparations of Reforger might lead the Russians to believe that we are planning to attack them first, so they would preemptively initiate the conflict. At the end of the day gentlemen, our goal is not to go to war. We want to find a way to solve this problem without killing each other.”
The Secretary of Defense nodded, not in agreement, but to acknowledge that he had heard. “Mr. President, while I understand your apprehension, these mobilizations take a significant amount of time and resources to accomplish. We can make sure that we effectively handle the PR strategy to cover this as a training exercise, but if we do not do this, then we will likely be caught with our pants down when a conflict does inevitably begin.”
“Hmm…I see what you are saying,” conceded the President. “Ok, Castle, you’ve convinced me. Let’s get Reforger up and running…I still have concerns though, gentlemen. What happens if the other NATO members decide that they are not going to hold up their end of the agreement and send troops to support us if a war does start?”
Secretary Johnson responded, “Mr. President, you bring up a good point. If we are going to go to war with Russia, there are a lot of things we need to take into consideration, like the fact that not all NATO members will want to participate. Some members may even openly challenge our effort to get NATO involved. Also, we have to keep in mind that the Iranians and Chinese may see this as an opportunity to go rogue on us, believing that we are too occupied to challenge them. The Chinese have already annexed Mongolia, and are even now talking about this ‘Greater China’ strategy.” Johnson went on for another fifteen minutes, discussing the political fallout and ramifications of a potential military confrontation with Russia. The other men in the room were polite, but you could tell that most of them were resigned to a world in which conflict was most likely inevitable.
Gates finally butted in. “This is a test for NATO as well. If we do move to a conflict with Russia, and a member of NATO opts to not honor their obligation to the organization, then I want them removed from NATO with a five-year ban on reentry. If NATO is going to stay a relevant organization, then members will either be 100% on board, or they will be out.”
The President turned to Castle and Johnson, “I want you both to work the phones and meet with the NATO leaders. I want an agreement from NATO on supporting any military action against Russia. We will need to have consensus to do what needs to be done, or we will not act.”
The discussion continued for another hour as everyone went over the various aspects of what needed to happen next. The mobilization of the Army Reserves and activation of key National Guard units was going to raise a lot of red flags and cause a lot of questions to be asked. Everyone needed to know exactly what to say, and work from the same basic talking points.
Peace Keepers and Shots Fired
Rostov, Russia
At 0400 hours, in the twilight hours of the morning, the lead elements of the 137th Reconnaissance Battalion (nicknamed the “Red Foxes”) crossed the Russian/Ukrainian border at the small village of Maksimov, which was located along the A280 highway. The critical port city of Mariupol was a mere eight miles away along the same road. As the armored vehicles approached the border, they spotted several Ukrainian border guards and one armored vehicle. The Red Foxes approached the guards and informed them of the recent UN Security Council resolution. “We would also like to reiterate that the governor of your region has requested that Russian peacekeepers come to help observe and protect the referendum vote,” they continued. “We respectfully request that you stand down and let us pass.”
A tense pause followed, in which no perceptible activity took place. Finally, the Red Foxes issued their ultimatum, “If you do not stand down, you will be fired upon.”
The situation had everyone on edge, but ultimately, the border commander ordered his men to stand down. They were clearly outnumbered and outgunned. To have fought would have resulted in certain death for his men, something he was not willing to risk. He did, however, radio ahead to the government forces in the city, letting them know that the Russians were coming. They had managed to delay the Russians for close to an hour before they rolled across the border.
As the armored convoy reached the outskirts of Mariupol, they encountered the first of a series of roadblocks. Several police officers, intermixed with a platoon of Ukrainian soldiers, had formed a makeshift roadblock using three police cars, two army trucks, and two BMP-2s.
As the column of Red Foxes approached the roadblock and came to a stop, a Russian captain got out of his armored vehicle to walk towards the roadblock. He was hoping to talk with the platoon commander and avoid a conflict. As the captain was roughly halfway between the two parties, a shot was fired. It may never be known who fired the first shot; it could have been a nervous police officer, an agitator, or one of the soldiers on either side. At any rate, the bullet hit the young captain who had sought to defuse the situation.
When the Captain clutched his chest and fell to the ground, violent chaos ensued. The Russians had the Ukrainians heavily outgunned; in less than a minute, the defenders of the roadblock lay dead in the street, and the vehicles they had been using as cover were completely shredded from the intense gun battle. The T-80s wasted no time in firing their 125mm cannons at the Ukrainian BMPs--they didn’t even have time to get off returning fire before they were destroyed.
The reverberations of the short exchange of heavy weapons fire and subsequent explosions shook the small city, waking many of the locals from their sleep. The resident Ukrainian battalion commander, Colonel Skopje, was one of the men roused from their slumber. Concerned that his men might be in eminent mortal danger, he threw on his uniform and immediately headed to his office. His battalion had been planning to withdraw behind the demarcation line later in the day, so they had already gathered their vehicles and were ready to move.
Fifteen minutes later, a survivor of the attack was brought to the room, and regaled Skopje with the horrors of how the Russians had slaughtered the soldiers at the roadblock. The colonel immediately sent a message to his higher command, telling them that the Russians had slaughtered one of his platoons and were advancing on the city.
Without orders or permission from his superiors, Colonel Skopje issued an order that may very well have been the single act that escalated the conflict to a full-blown war. The colonel
commanded his battalion to head for the Russian unit and engage them. He also sent a message to his aviation support unit and requested the two Mi-28 Havoc ground attack helicopters to engage the Russian column. Deep down, Skopje knew his forces could not prevent the Russians from capturing the city, but he hoped they could blunt their advance until additional reinforcements arrived (pending, of course, the central government sent them).
The American advisors he had with him argued against engaging the Russians. One of the men insisted, “You should order your units to leave for the demarcation line immediately. Look to fight another day, when you have sufficient force and support elements.”
The colonel wouldn’t hear any of it. “I am going to protect my country, even if that means that we are killed in the process,” Skopje snapped.
The American major who was the lead advisor for this sector hung his head low. Then he looked up and offered to shake his hand. “I wish you all the best of luck,” he said.
Turning to the other advisors who were assigned to this battalion, he ordered, “Let’s all get in our own vehicles and head across the demarcation line. I will not have us be a part of this ill-advised and non-sanctioned attack.”
*******
Captain Nikolai Popov had just woken up when he received word that the Russians had indeed crossed the border in the early hours of the morning. Less than ten minutes later, he found out about the shooting that happened at the roadblock. Thinking things could potentially get hairy, Captain Popov called out to his lead crew chief, “Get the helicopters fueled and ready to move. I want them equipped with anti-tank missiles and rocket pods…we may need to fight our way out of this situation.”
The group of aviators, mechanics and ordinance technicians began to get the two attack helicopters ready for a potential combat mission. The pilots walked over to the maps and began to orient themselves as to where the enemy formation currently was and where they would most likely move in the immediate future. They also looked at potential egress routes where they could fly once they had expended their ordinance. They decided amongst themselves that if they survived the engagement, they would radio ahead to their support element and find an empty field to settle down into, refuel, and then continue to their original destination, Kryvyi Rih Airbase.
Twenty minutes later, Captain Popov received a request for air support from the army ground commander. He knew an order might come, but he had secretly hoped it would not. He informed the group of the orders anyway. The ground crew was nearly done getting the Havocs loaded with their ordinance. The captain provided some additional guidance to his team. “Fly low and stay between the various buildings. This will provide you with cover. As you spot the enemy tanks and armored vehicles moving through the city, engage them on sight, and keep going until you have expended all of your missiles. If all goes well, we will destroy sixteen tanks or armored vehicles and then get out of there as fast as possible.”
The other pilot responded, “Yes sir,” with a wild grin on his face. Then they dutifully climbed into the Havocs and began their pre-flight checks.
As the rotor blades got up to speed, Captain Popov’s helicopter lifted off and began to head towards the city. The sun was fully up at this point. It was a beautiful morning, though as they got closer to the city, they could see dark black smoke rising from where the Russians had attacked their comrades. Suddenly, Popov spotted the Russian convoy. The Russian armored vehicles were nearly to the downtown and still driving in a single file column--they had not fanned out into the city yet. They were still heading in the direction of the town hall and the airport, which were probably their main objectives. The captain slowed his helicopter down and went into a hover behind a four-story building roughly a mile away. His wingman did the same.
Keying the radio frequency that they were operating on, Captain Popov began to go over the tactics they were going to use. “OK, here is what we are going to do. I’m going to pop up from behind this building to our front on Nesky Street and fire off my missiles at the lead vehicles. I want you to focus on the tail end of the convoy from that cluster of buildings two blocks north of me.”
Captain Popov was feeling confident. “If the Russians thought they could invade Ukraine and get away with it, they have another thing coming,” he thought.
As they lifted their helicopters above the buildings and began to paint the armored vehicles with their targeting lasers, the Russian convoy responded. One of the anti-aircraft vehicles, an SA-19 or “Grison,” detected the helicopters’ presence and immediately moved to engage them. Despite being on tracks, it quickly maneuvered into a better position so that its two 30mm cannons could begin to fire; a barrage of rounds headed towards Popov’s wingman, Captain Sirko, who began to take evasive maneuvers. He swung his helicopter sharply left, then ducked behind another structure while the 30mm rounds peppered the face of the building, throwing chunks of cement and glass to the ground below.
Popov saw this as his opportunity and let loose all eight anti-tank missiles, making sure that at least one of them was aimed at the Grison. In quick succession, his missiles leapt from his helicopter one after another and began to race towards the armored column. The Grison’s sensors detected the incoming missiles and immediately switched targets, attempting to shoot down the incoming missiles.
At this point, Captain Sirko’s helicopter popped up from behind a different building and fired off his eight missiles as well. While Popov’s nose laser continued to guide his missiles towards the armored column, the Grison destroyed four of the incoming missiles as small fireballs appeared in the sky. They had managed to take out the missile that had been directed at them. The Grison aimed its 30mm cannons back at the helicopters. Before Popov could duck back down behind the building had been hovering above; the rounds tore through his helicopter’s armor, shredding it until the chopper exploded and fell to the ground in a fiery mess.
As Popov met a painful early demise, his wingman’s eight missiles hit the armored column and destroyed the lone Grison in a blaze of glory. Unfortunately for Sirko, just as he turned his helicopter around to head for safety, a Su-27 “Flanker” swooped in and obliterated his helicopter with a missile.
The Flanker then climbed back above the city and continued its own reconnaissance mission. As it leveled off around 10,000 feet, it found the Ukrainian armored column it was looking for. The pilot climbed again until he reached 15,000 feet, and then began an attack run, swooping down from the direction of the morning sun. He fired off a series of air-to-ground missiles while radioing to his companions that he had found the column. Within minutes, four other Su-27’s swooped in and finished off the Ukrainian battalion before they were even able to get in range to attack the Russian advance team.
The attack had not entirely been a one-sided affair. The Ukrainian column also had their own Grison with them, which engaged the Flankers; it managed to shoot two of them down and damage a third before it was destroyed.
As the Russian aircraft loitered above the city, smoke began to rise from the twelve Russian vehicles that had been destroyed by the two Ukrainian helicopters and the nearly three dozen armored Ukrainian vehicles that were obliterated at the outskirts of the city. The battle for Mariupol was over, but the fight for the Ukraine had just begun.
*******
Major General Aleksandr Chayko was on his third cigarette of the morning as he watched the various live drone feeds on the monitor in his command center. The first Russian armored vehicles had entered the critical port city of Mariupol and it was expected that they may encounter some resistance from the Ukrainian army. The drone operator was keeping the drones about 1,000 feet above the convoy, so that the operators manning the various camera feeds could monitor what the convoys were driving into. One camera was focused on everything ahead of the convoy, while the other two cameras were looking to the right and left of the convoy, providing the operations center and the convoy commander with an excellent field of vision.
Shortly after the
initial encounter at the roadblock, one of the camera operators spotted movement. Flying between several of the buildings, they spotted two Havoc helicopters moving to attack the convoy. Then, the first Ukrainian helicopter popped out from behind one of the apartment buildings and fired off his missiles at the column. In that moment, his heart sank as it became clear the Ukrainian army was not going to leave the city. They were going to stand and fight, despite knowing they were heavily outnumbered and outgunned. He had hoped to secure the city without bloodshed, but as the missiles streaked in towards his men, he knew that would not happen. The local Ukrainian commander must have decided he wanted combat, rather than cede the city to him peacefully.
To his surprise, the Russian Grison was able to shoot down four of the eight missiles. Then a second helicopter popped up and fired off eight more, but not before the Grison was able to shred the first helicopter that had fired on his men. He looked at his air force liaison officer and yelled, “Make sure your fighters take that helicopter out! And find that armored column and destroy it.”
“I tried to offer the Ukrainians a chance to live,” he thought. “They could have seen their families again, but if they want to die for their country, then I will oblige them and give them that honor.”
He continued to watch as the conflict continued, puffing angrily on his cigarette. Chayko hoped his other columns were having better luck than his group at Mariupol. He walked over to the next group of monitors, which showed another armored column from his division that was advancing on Makiivka, which led to Donetsk. The Ukrainian military had focused a large part of their military operation and forces in this region, and he expected to meet heavy resistance if the government forces planned on fighting. He was hoping they would have taken the opportunity to withdraw across the demarcation line before they moved across the border, but after Mariupol, he couldn’t take anything for granted.