by Les W Kuzyk
Chapter 34
They sat around the downstairs meeting room, chairs at scattered angles, each nursing their coffee cup. Tamanna had called together a Holo-Skype conference and Nishat was scheduled to be in attendance. Tension hung heavy in the air as they waited.
“You guys sign that contract extension?” Brad asked.
Vince nodded, but Jeri was silent.
“Not for the bonus, I just gotta stay.” Vince grimaced. “Like you said, we’re probably on multiple drone lists now.”
“You guys are so lucky to be alive.” Jeri spoke in an unnaturally subdued voice. “We don’t need to be here you know.”
“We’ll be out of here soon,” Brad said. “With or without the real story.”
“No matter what,” Vince said. “I kinda like it here, drone listed or not.”
“Like Jackie,” Jeri said flatly. “You guys know there’s gonna be a Martian kid? And the voting audience wants a say on bringing her home. What do you do with a baby on Mars, or a bonus when you’re dead?”
“You’ll be getting more model numbers like you always wanted,” Brad said, looking sideways at Jeri. “That’s what I think is gonna happen here.”
“Give it a break.” Jeri shook her head. “Nothing past Phase II on this project, no way.”
“You guys ever meet Tami’s boss?” Vince asked.
“Nope,” Brad said. “Couple times I saw her profile, but she keeps a blank icon photo.”
“Here’s Tami remote,” Vince said, waving at the cube. “I wonder where she is?” His voice trailed off.
Tamanna came through from a simple desk in a one colored room. No clue on her location, Vince noticed. She briefed them on their time with Nishat. Two minutes, no more. Listen only, she told them, no interactive questioning. “If you have any questions, direct them my way afterwards.”
“What’s that all about?” Jeri asked.
“Yeah,” Brad said.
“On our project while we wait.” Tamanna ignored the comments. “Speaking strictly to the global scenario, for reference only as we all know, we take that as a slow start build up scenario. Remember the natural event we model—Pinatubo emitted eight million sulphur tons over several months, and netted a global temperature reduction peaking at zero point four degrees. That was over an eighteen month timeframe. For our Niger scenario, we want to reduce the temperature by double Pinatubo within the first year. We adjust that temperature drop on an ongoing controlled basis using incoming satellite infrared emissions measurements over the next months.”
Vince looked at Brad, and they both shrugged. They’d be relying on those satellite measures, but no change there. Jeri had become more attentive.
“But now, based on discussions over the global, we want another scenario calculated. Still based on Pinatubo. We now realize we can design artificial volcanoes to reduce temperature, or, we design to adjust precipitation to pre-industrial. We realize those to be two distinct targets, similar, but not identical. So we want a global scenario to target an offset of half the carbon temperature effect. Why? Two reasons. First is we would want to avoid precipitation loss by cooling the planet too much. Model runs show that happening. Then second, however empty this effort may seem at times, we still want to take a chance on people acting responsible. We still want to leave global incentive for carbon mitigation efforts which, as we all know, is the real solution.”
“Mitigation was the real solution,” Vince said. He knew mitigation, even in the optimal scenario with a rapid carbon dioxide reduction program, would only moderately offset climate change. Carbon already emitted would continue as the primary effect on climate change over the next many years.
“Mitigation will still be one atmospheric lever available, still having significant potential to bring back the planet we once had,” Tamanna said. “Making our geoengineering project all the more important. The benefits we bring, even mitigation can’t supply.”
“If we had taken on mitigation decades back, you could have called that a solution,” Vince said. “Now, carbon’s in the atmosphere.” Carbon already in the air had committed the planet to a distinctly modified climate.
“Barring any carbon capture from thin air technology developing,” Tamanna said.
“Biochar,” Vince said. Biochar was one good way to create a carbon sink and reduce desertification. Absorbing and retained moisture and nutrients, biochar helped create soil. But someone had to initiate and coordinate the project globally, or regionally—not happening. What was happening, right here in Africa, was the offset of one pollutant with the intentional introduction of another pollutant.
“So, what’s this new scenario about?” Brad said.
“Sulphate cooling doesn’t precisely offset carbon warming,” Vince said. “So there’s change no matter what. Carbon insulates all the time, but sulphur only reflects when the sun shines. So you get effects like cooler days and warmer nights.”
“Aahil might like that,” Brad said. “What about back home?”
“Just like sulphate cooling actually happens only in the day time, it also happens more in the summer time, you know, whenever there’s more sunshine. So up north, we’d have cooler summers and warmer winters.”
The image of Minister Jabbar appeared, coming almost into hazy focus. “Good day High Impact Country Climate Change contractors,” Nishat said. “We congratulate you on your work so far and we apologize for any inconvenience. Thank you. We all understand our wish for sulphur-driven cooling to counteract carbon-driven warming.” Nishat spoke as if she were reading from script. “Ms. Meacham has informed me each one of you has agreed to stay until our project is complete.”
For a further set term, yes, Vince thought. The contract wording had been selectively ambiguous.
“What we now wish is that you calculate and deploy a revised sulphur release plan what we have referred to as the major regional Phase III. Specifically, this revision will now include your national release combined with any country bordering your assigned nation.” Nishat’s face formed a pixilated smile. “Cooperating with sister countries, we wish to see Phase III in three days’ time. Our global scenario must also be revised to reflect the changes made in this Phase III plan. The Phase IV global remains for reference only. Thank you again.” Her image blanked out.
Vince and Brad looked at each other.
“She’s not talking just to us,” Vince said. “That was a blanket statement.”
“Yup,” Brad said. “No brainer there.”
“At least we had a visual of the boss woman,” Jeri said.
“Okay, this will be something of a transition,” Tamanna said. “But we’ve been preparing along these lines, so it should all go smoothly. Any questions?”
“Three days.” Vince shook his head. “I mean, what about that mid-Atlantic release?”
“Not included. As you deduced, we’d never have the aircraft design time,” Tamanna said. “Our HICCC Minister Nishat Jabbar wishes to keep that as part of a full global scenario tagged in with balloon launch. Political risk there she sees fitting with global. As things stand, other Sahel countries are near identical to Niger with strong regional interest in a Green Sahara. So we calculate mid-Atlantic as per previous, and for Phase IV reference only.”
“We have a refined Phase III scenario,” Jeri said. “If we include these other nationals into the model, I can tell you that modifies the run somewhat. Question: do we still include a percentage of ocean surface for each country, and the land surface of the non-HICCC world. Proportional to each country’s area and GDP?”
“Correct,” Tamanna said. “Nothing changes there.”
The three looked at each other, each with doubts. They would have to rely on other engineering teams they’d never met and assume correct calculations and sulphur releases, and to synchronize their balloons in the air accordingly. Jeri’s model would now be linked in to the actual release tonnages for each neighbouring country, in fact, all major countries across the Sahel.
“Burkina Faso?” Vince said, glancing at Brad.
“Mali covers that,” Tamanna said.
Brad nodded.
“So speaking now for Nishat, I can tell you we have been running independent tests in other Sahel countries identical to those here in Niger.” Tamanna said. “We will link you in to a common database and you can source any test results there. Your data will be posted also.”
“They must have infrastructure in place,” Vince said.
“Yes, with design variations, the same basic model as Niger.” Tamanna said. “In fact, if you look to your visiscreens, you’ll see you’ve secured access to another cloud.”
“So to summarize.” Tamanna appeared about to sign off. “We assume a Sahel regional release. To be initiated three days from now. We also want to assume an attitude of trust—that all members of our consortium have the same desired outcome, and that we are all acting in a coordinated fashion. Each Sahel country has a vested interest in a Green Sahara. And finally, we want to adjust our reference Phase IV global according to this new regional scenario.”
“Explains that balloon Aahil’s cousin found,” Vince said quietly.
“Yup,” Brad said. “Sure does.”
“To start, this will have an impact on our Niger volcano,” Jeri said, pointing at the paper wall map. “With a shoulder release each side of Niger, Mali to our west and Chad to the east, this will have significant influence on our model output. Our sulphur effect will funnel a lot better going pole ward, and we won’t be leaking out the edges.”
“So, Jeri you’ll have to run our Niger model, and then run that again assuming these other countries participate.” Vince glanced at the wall map. “Niger is the middle country and we need release numbers from Mauritania and Sudan on the outside edges too. I’ll need that model output to recalculate our output and coordinate maintenance tonnages.” He smiled. “Now I see the Sahel sisters on the map, all wanting a Green Sahara.”
“Yeah, I’ll get you that.” Jeri held her lips firm. “This Phase III Sahel release is gonna give our model a lot better numbers to extrapolate that global. Improved start data there, and a major region has much better climate zone reality than any defined by a national border. That makes our global, Phase IV, a significantly more accurate estimation.”
“I told you you’d be happy, girl,” Brad said.
“Not totally.” She frowned now. “It’s still possible we get a polar regions only cooling effect. The model’s not perfect, by any stretch. A regional change can have negative impact. Best to have a reliable cooling of those mid-Atlantic waters in play. Or your biochar, Vince, en masse.”
They looked at each other.
“Nothing simple, man.”
“Like the climate.”
“Like people.”
“Another thing I wanna mention,” Jeri said. “With this major regional model solidly defined, Phase IV becomes nearly a one button push. Alright, alright, hypothetically ‘cause that totally assumes all HICCC countries actually cooperate. We’d need accurate synchronization.”
“Assume some major Asian country’s been organizing all along,” Vince said. “Could be. Niger project’s pretty organized.”
“When’d you take on this optimism,” Brad said.
“Right,” Vince said, nodding. “Reality check. We’ve been less than informed on project scope the last few weeks. If we are now not the only, but a sister Sahel country, our Phase III may well not be the only major regional.”
“Yeah, that’s my man.” Brad smiled.
“Think for a minute on our regional logistics,” Jeri said. “Take moving sulphur tanks and launch balloons, and past that, can we realistically coordinate that much sulphur into the stratosphere? You engineers you.”
“No worries there,” Vince said. “We’ve got contingency sulphur coming out our ears—we could bring back the Ice Age, or make a snowball earth the truth be told. The real issue is gonna be peoples’ reaction. Once the world knows what’s going on—that’s when shit flies.”
“Or here’s another one,” Jeri said. “Say someone makes a gross error in calculations, or our whole project has a theoretical error. Like the NASA satellite measure that detected the Antarctic spring ozone hole, but the data was coded into the software as instrumentation error by default, and tossed. The error then was belief, blinded by theory ‘cause the measurement they were getting wasn’t believed possible. Yeah, people do make errors.”
“Anything else Jeri?”
“Look guys, you been great at playin’ the card game,” Jeri said. “But I can work the model from back home just as well. I’m relocating. Next time we talk, you’ll be lookin’ into your Holo-Skype cube.”
“Yeah,” Brad sighed. “Drones?”
She didn’t answer, nodding silently.
CONFERENCE Of the PARTIES FLORENCE
No one knows if or when these technologies will be used, but it’s fun though provoking so see Kuzyk working out scenarios in which solar geoengineering is driven by poor countries that will be most harmed by climate change.
David Keith
Harvard Professor, A Case for Climate Engineering