David, Florence Nightingale, 1962, Games, Gods, and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Dawes, R. M., D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, 1989, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment. Science, 243, 1668–1674.
Dawkins, Richard, 1989 (1976), The Selfish Gene. 2nd ed., Oxford: Oxford University Press.
De Vany, Arthur, 2003, Hollywood Economics: Chaos in the Movie Industry. London: Routledge.
Debreu, Gerard, 1959, Theorie de la valeur, Dunod, tr. Theory of Value. New York: Wiley.
Dennett, Daniel C., 1995, Darwin’s Dangerous Idea: Evolution and the Meanings of Life. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Deutsch, David, 1997, The Fabric of Reality. New York: Penguin.
DeWitt, B. S., and N. Graham, eds., 1973, The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Dugatkin, Lee Alan, 2001, The Imitation Factor: Evolution Beyond the Gene. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Easterly, William,2001, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Edmonds, D., and J. Eidinow, 2001, Wittgenstein’s Poker: The Story of a Ten-Minute Argument Between Two Great Philosophers. New York: Ecco.
Einstein, A., 1956 (1926), Investigations on the Theory of the Brownian Movement. New York: Dover.
Ekman, Paul, 1992, Telling Lies: Clues to Deceit in the Marketplace, Politics and Marriage. New York: W. W. Norton.
Elster, Jon, 1998, Alchemies of the Mind: Rationality and the Emotions. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Evans, Dylan, 2002, Emotions: The Science of Sentiment. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Evans, D., and O. Zarate, 1999, Introducing Evolutionary Psychology. London: Totem Books.
Eysenck, M. W., and M. T. Keane, 2000, Cognitive Psychology, 4th ed.
Finucane, M. L., A. Alhakami, P. Slovic, and S. M. Johnson, 2000, “The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 1–17.
Fischhoff, Baruch, 1982, “For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Heuristics and Biases in Hindsight.” In Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky.
Fodor, Jerry A., 1983, The Modularity of Mind: An Essay on Faculty Psychology. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Frank, Robert H., 1985, Choosing the Right Pond: Human Behavior and the Quest for Status. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Frank, Robert H., 1999, Luxury Fever: Why Money Fails to Satisfy in an Era of Excess. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Frank, R. H., and P. J. Cook, 1995, The WinnerTake-All Society: Why the Few at the Top Get So Much More Than the Rest of Us. New York: Free Press.
Frederick, S., and G. Loewenstein, 1999, “Hedonic Adaptation,” in Kahneman, Diener and Schwartz.
Freedman, D. A., and P. B. Stark, 2003, “What Is the Chance of an Earthquake?” Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3860. Technical Report 611. September 2001; revised January 2003.
Fukuyama, Francis,1992, The End of History and the Last Man. New York: Free Press.
Galbraith, John Kenneth, 1997, The Great Crash 1929. New York: Mariner Books.
Gehring, W. J., and A. R. Willoughby, 2002, “The Medial Frontal Cortex and the Rapid Processing of Monetary Gains and Losses.” Science, 295, March.
Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas, 1971, The Entropy Law and the Economic Process. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Gigerenzer, Gerd, 1989, The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Gigerenzer, Gerd, 1996, “On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review, 103,592–596.
Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2003, Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Gigerenzer G., P. M. Todd, and ABC Research Group, 2000, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., J. Czerlinski, and L. Martignon, 2002, “How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?” In Gilovich, Griffin, and Kahneman.
Gilbert, D., E. Pinel, T. D. Wilson, S. Blumberg, and T. Weatley, 2002, “Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting.” In Gilovich, Griffin, and Kahneman.
Gillies, Donald, 2000, Philosophical Theories of Probability. London: Routledge.
Gilovich, T., R. P. Vallone, and A. Tversky, 1985, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences.” Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295–314.
Gilovich, T., D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002, Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Gladwell, Malcolm, 1996, “The Tipping Point: Why Is the City Suddenly So Much Safer—Could It Be That Crime Really Is an Epidemic?” The New Yorker, June 3.
Gladwell, Malcolm, 2000, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. New York: Little, Brown.
———, 2002, “Blowing Up: How Nassim Taleb Turned the Inevitability of Disaster into an Investment Strategy.” The New Yorker, April 22 and 29.
Glimcher, Paul, 2002, Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain: The Science of Neuroeconomics. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Goleman, Daniel, 1995, Emotional Intelligence: Why It Could Matter More Than IQ. New York: Bantam Books.
Goleman, Daniel, 2003, Destructive Emotions, How Can We Overcome Them?: A Scientific Dialogue with the Dalai Lama. New York: Bantam.
Goodman, Nelson, 1954, Facts, Fiction and Forecast. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Hacking, Ian, 1990, The Taming of Chance. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Hacohen, Malachi Haim, 2001, Karl Popper, The Formative Years, 1902–1945: Politics and Philosophy in Interwar Vienna. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Hayek, F. A., 1945, “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” American Economic Review, 35(4), 519–530.
Hayek, F. A., 1994, The Road to Serfdom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Hilton, Denis, 2003, “Psychology and the Financial Markets: Applications to Understanding and Remedying Irrational Decision-making.” In Brocas and Carillo.
Hirshleifer, J., and J. G. Riley, 1992, The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Horrobin, David, 2002, Madness of Adam and Eve: How Schizophrenia Shaped Humanity. New York: Transworld Publishers Limited.
Hosoda, M., G. Coats, E. F. Stone-Romero, and C. A. Backus, 1999, “Who Will Fare Better in Employment-Related Decisions? A Meta-Analytic Review of Physical Attractiveness Research in Work Settings.” Paper presented at the meeting of the Society of Industrial Organizational Psychology, Atlanta, Georgia.
Hsee, C. K., and Y. R. Rottenstreich, 2004, “Music, Pandas and Muggers: On the Affective Psychology of Value.” Forthcoming, Journal of Experimental Psychology.
Hsieh, David A., 1991, “Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets.” The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1839–1877.
Huang, C. F., and R. H. Litzenberger, 1988, Foundations for Financial Economics. New York/Amsterdam/London: North-Holland.
Hume, David, 1999 (1748), An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ingersoll, Jonathan E., Jr., 1987, The Theory of Financial Decision Making. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing.
Jaynes, E. T., 2003, Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., 2003, “Why People Take Risks.” In Gestire la vulnerabilità e l’incertezza: un incontro internazionale fra studiosi e capi di impresa. Rome: Italian Institute of Risk Studies.
———, E. Diener, and N. Schwarz, eds., 1999, Well-being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
———, and S. Frederick, 2002, “Representativeness Revisited: Attr
ibute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment.” In Gilovich, Griffin, and Kahneman.
———, J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler, 1986, “Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.” Journal of Business, Vol. 59 (4), 251–278.
———, J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler, 1991, “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias.” In Kahneman and Tversky (2000).
———, and D. Lovallo, 1993, “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk-taking. Management Science, 39, 17–31.
———, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
———, and A. Tversky, 1972, “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness.” Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454.
———, and A. Tversky, 1973, “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review, 80: 237–251.
———, and A. Tversky, 1979, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica, 47, 263–291.
———,and A. Tversky,1982,“On the Study of Statistical Intuitions.” Cognition, 11, 123–141.
———, and A. Tversky, 1996, “On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions.” Psychological Review, 103, 582–591.
———, and A. Tversky, eds., 2000, Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Kasser, Tim, 2002, The High Price of Materialism. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Keynes, John Maynard, 1937, “The General Theory.” In Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. LI, 209–233.
———, 1989 (1920), Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.
Kindleberger, Charles P., 2001, Manias, Panics, and Crashes. New York: Wiley.
Knight, Frank, 1921 (1965), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. New York: Harper and Row.
Kreps, David M., 1988, Notes on the Theory of Choice. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
Kreps, J., and N. B. Davies, 1993, An Introduction to Behavioral Ecology, 3rd ed. Oxford: Blackwell Scientific Publications.
Kripke, Saul A., 1980, Naming and Necessity. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Kurz, Mordecai, 1997, “Endogenous Uncertainty: A Unified View of Market Volatility,” Working Paper. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.
Kyburg, Henry E., Jr., 1983, Epistemology and Inference. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
LeDoux, Joseph, 1998, The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. New York: Simon & Schuster.
LeDoux, Joseph, 2002, Synaptic Self: How Our Brains Become Who We Are. New York: Viking.
Levi, Isaac, 1970, Gambling with Truth. Boston, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Lewis, T., F. Amini, and R. Lannon, 2000, A General Theory of Love. New York: Vintage Books.
Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff, and L. Phillips, 1977, “Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art.” In Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky (1982).
Loewenstein, G. F., E. U. Weber, C. K. Hsee, and E. S. Welch, 2001, “Risk As Feelings.” Psychological Bulletin, 127, 267–286.
Lowenstein, Roger, 2000, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Lucas, Robert E., 1978, “Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy.” Econometrica, 46, 1429–1445.
Luce, R. D., and H. Raiffa, 1957, Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. New York: Dover.
Machina, M. J., and M. Rothschild, 1987, “Risk.” In Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., and Newman P., eds., 1987, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics. London: Macmillan.
MacKay, Charles, 2002, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. New York: Metro Books.
Magee, Bryan, 1997, Confessions of a Philosopher. London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson.
Mandelbrot, Benoit B., 1997, Fractals and Scaling in Finance. New York: Springder-Verlag.
Markowitz, Harry, 1959, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley.
Meehl, Paul E., 1954, Clinical Versus Statistical Predictions: A Theoretical Analysis and Revision of the Literature. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Menand, Louis, 2001, The Metaphysical Club: A Story of Ideas in America. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
Merton, Robert C., 1992, Continuous-Time Finance, 2nd ed. Cambridge, Eng.: Blackwell.
Miller, Geoffrey F., 2000, The Mating Mind: How Sexual Choice Shaped the Evolution of Human Nature. New York: Doubleday.
Mumford, David, 1999, “The Dawning of the Age of Stochasticity.” www.dam.brown.edu/people/mumford/Papers/Dawning.ps.
Myers, David G., 2002, Intuition: Its Powers and Perils. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
Nadeau, Maurice, 1970, Histoire du surréalisme. Paris: Seuil.
Niederhoffer, Victor, 1997, The Education of a Speculator. New York: Wiley.
Nozick, Robert,1993, The Nature of Rationality. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Paulos, John Allen,1988, Innumeracy. New York: Hill and Wang, a division of Farrar, Straus, and Giroux.
———,2003, A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market. Boston: Basic Books.
Peirce, Charles S., 1998 (1923), Chance, Love and Logic: Philosophical Essays. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.
Peterson, Ivars, 1998, The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari. New York: Wiley.
Piattelli-Palmarini, Massimo, 1994, Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds. New York: Wiley.
Pinker, Steven, 1997, How the Mind Works. New York: W. W. Norton.
Pinker, Steven, 2002, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature. New York: Viking.
Plotkin, Henry, 1998, Evolution in Mind: An Introduction to Evolutionary Psychology. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Popper, Karl R., 1971, The Open Society and Its Enemies, 5th ed. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
———, 1992, Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge, 5th ed. London: Routledge.
———, 1994, The Myth of the Framework. London: Routledge.
———, 2002, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, 15th ed. London: Routledge.
———, 2002, The Poverty of Historicism. London: Routledge.
Posner, Richard A., 2002, Public Intellectuals: A Study in Decline. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Rabin, Mathew, 2000, “Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers.” Economics Department, University of California, Berkeley, Working Paper E00-282, http://repositories.cdlib.org/iber/econ/ E00-282.
Rabin, M., and R. H. Thaler, 2001, “Anomalies: Risk Aversion.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1), Winter, 219–232.
Ramachandran, V. S., and S. Blakeslee, 1998, Phantoms in the Brain. New York: Morrow.
Ratey, John J., 2001, A User’s Guide to the Brain: Perception, Attention and the Four Theaters of the Brain. New York: Pantheon.
Rescher, Nicholas, 1995, Luck: The Brilliant Randomness of Everyday Life. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
Robbe-Grillet, Alain, 1985, Les gommes. Paris: Editions de Minuit.
Rozan, Jean-Manuel, 1999, Le fric. Paris: Michel Lafon.
Sapolsky, Robert M., 1998, Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers: An Updated Guide to Stress, Stress-Related Diseases, and Coping. New York: W. H. Freeman & Co.
Sapolsky, Robert M. (and Department of Neurology and Neurological Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine), 2003, “Glucocorticoids and Hippocampal Atrophy in Neuropsychiatric Disorders.” Stanford University.
Savage, Leonard J., 1972, The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Dover.
Schleifer, Andrei, 2000, Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Schwartz, Barry, 2003, The Paradox Of Choice. New York: Ecco.
Schwartz, B., A. Ward, J. Monterosso, S. Lyubomirsky, K. White, and D. R. Lehman, 2002, “Maximizing Versus Satisfic
ing: Happiness Is a Matter of Choice,” J Pers Soc Psychol. Nov., 83 (5):1178–1197.
Searle, John, J., 2001, Rationality in Action. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Sen, Amartya, K., 1977, “Rational: A Critique of the Behavioral Foundations of Economic Theory. Philosophy and Public Affairs, 6, 317–344.
———, 2003, Rationality and Freedom. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University.
Shackle, George L. S., 1973, Epistemics and Economics: A Critique of Economic Doctrines. Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Shahani, C., R. L. Dipboye, and T. M. Gehrlein, 1993, “Attractiveness Bias in the Interview: Exploring the Boundaries of an Effect.” Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 14 (3), 317–328.
Shefrin, Hersh, 2000, Beyond Fear and Greed: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing. New York: Oxford University Press.
Shiller, Robert J., 1981, “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” American Economic Review, Vol. 71, 3, 421–436.
———, 1989, Market Volatility. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
———, 1990. “Market Volatility and Investor Behavior.” American Economic Review, Vol. 80, 2, 58–62.
———, 2000, Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Shizgal, Peter, 1999, “On the Neural Computation of Utility: Implications from Studies of Brain Simulation Rewards.” In Kahneman, Diener and Schwarz.
Sigelman, C. K., D. B. Thomas, L. Sigelman, and F. D. Ribich, 1986, “Gender, Physical Attractiveness, and Electability: An Experimental Investigation of Voter Biases.” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16 (3), 229–248.
Simon, Herbert A., 1955, “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99–118.
———, 1956, “Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment.” Psychological Review, 63, 129–138.
———, 1957, Models of Man. New York: Wiley.
———, 1983, Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.
———, 1987, “Behavioral Economics.” In Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., and Newman, P.,eds.,1987, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics. London: Macmillan.
Fooled by Randomness Page 31