by S. P. Perone
This time she whacked him with a solid elbow to the ribs. “My God! You’re hopelessly conceited, Tony Shane! Next time, I hope they cover your face and disguise your voice…like onAmerica’s Most Wanted !”
They both chuckled at that one, and decided to have a toast to Shane’s television future with the last remaining sips of the Merlot.
After enjoying dinner in Georgetown with a visiting group of leaders from the National Teachers Association, the Senator had driven over to Virginia for a late-night meeting with Carothers. While Tony and Sarah were enjoying dinner in San Francisco, the Senator was seated in Carothers’ office at CIA headquarters in Langley, discussing the significance of the technical “breakthrough” in Livermore that they had learned about that day.
“Do you understand what Shane’s report means?” the Senator asked. “The ‘hits’ they got today were about 90% accurate in predicting twenty different terrorist events from 1992 to 1998. Does that mean they have a 90% chance of predicting whether an event will occur tomorrow?”
“I asked Tony that question, when we talked this afternoon,” Carothers replied. “I don’t think you’re going to like the answer.”
The Senator waited patiently while Carothers opened up the brightly-marked Top Secret file on his desk containing his notes from today, along with many previous documents on the StarSight project.
“This is what Tony said,” Carothers began. “They got their ‘hits’ today by using a supervised pattern recognition program. Because we know all terrorist events that occurred in the 1992–1998 period, the prediction accuracy can be evaluated as if the program were really predictingfuture events. They are pretty confident they can predicttruly future events with the same 90 percent confidence. But…there are two major concerns: first, so far they can only predict events similar to those that were used to train the program; and second, they have a significant ‘false positive’ rate of 15 percent.”
“What does the ‘false positive’ rate mean?”
“It means that 15 percent of the predicted events do not occur. Combine that with predicting an occurring event only 90 percent of the time, and you have a whole lot of uncertainty every time you get a prediction from the program.”
“On top of all that,” Carothers continued, “the ability to predict some new and different type of terrorist activity is completely unknown.”
“So, where does that leave us?” the Senator asked.
“Well, we can hope that these huge flaws in the StarSight approach can be removed in the next week or ten days…which is probably asking too much.”
“Maybe I’m too optimistic, Nathan. But, just look at how far they’ve come in just a couple weeks.”
“Gerry, I’m sorry, but the time for optimism has just about run out. You’ve been correct to obtain funding for this project over the past couple years…and the long-term outlook is very good. But…you know I’ve never thought there was more than a 50 percent chance they might be successful before the time of the terrorist threat we’re facing. And, that probability is looking more like ten percent, now…if that.”
“All right, Nathan, I can see you’re going somewhere here. What’s your back-up plan?”
“There’s three things we might do. Two of them you know about. The first is to advise the President to bring all of our defenses up to full alert within the next two weeks. The second is to stage a pre-emptive strike against Ali-Sheikh’s compound in Pakistan.
“You already know that the President was briefed, and he’s prepared to go to the Cabinet at my recommendation. His primary concern is that these actions can not be kept completely secret, and the public will be spooked.”
“The second action is also on the President’s desk. His military advisors have bought in; they know they can do it. The big question…aside from the diplomatic repercussions…is whether it would do any good. Even though we’ve lost our ‘mole’ in Ali-Sheikh’s organization, we still have other intelligence sources. What we’ve learned is that large numbers of his agents have been moving in and out of the compound in the past two weeks. We don’t know where they are going, but we have evidence that three have gone into Russia. We’re trying to get information on their whereabouts. That could give us some indication of exactly what Ali-Sheikh has in mind. But it may be too late for any kind of intervention to stop something that is already in motion.
“The third option, Gerry, has been taking shape in my mind since we got together out in Livermore. We’re convinced that the StarSight group has been under surveillance by Ali-Sheikh’s agents. If we haven’t tipped our hand about this…then, why shouldn’t we take advantage of it? Why not send them some contrived information? Give them something to force their hand?”
“What do you have in mind?” the Senator asked apprehensively. “I hope you’re not planning anything that might place someone in danger.”
“Gerry, how many Americans are in danger right now? If Ali-Sheikh’s threat is carried out, how many lives will be lost? Can we afford to worry about placing a handful of citizens at risk, if it means preventing wholesale loss of life?”
Unable to dispute Carothers’ logic, the Senator remained silent, staring blankly at some distant point, waiting for a description of the plan.
“What do you think would happen if we let our ‘spook’ believe that the StarSight system was working?” Carothers asked.
“You know goddam well what he would do,” the Senator interrupted angrily. “He would destroy the StarSight team!”
“I’m not so sure, Gerry…I’m not so sure. What has kept them from taking action before now? Certainly not a lack of opportunity. From what we’ve already surmised, they’ve had this team under surveillance for a long time.”
“I thought you figured they wouldn’t take action because they didn’t want us to know they were spying on us.”
“That’s right. But, there is an alternate explanation,” Carothers responded. “What if the agent spying on this project actually wants tosteal the StarSight package? Have you thought about that possibility?”
“Don’t you still think the party responsible for leaking the information to Mason was trying tosabotage the project?”
“Yes. I do. But I’m beginning to think we have more than one party involved…two agents, perhaps…and they may be working at cross purposes.”
“What possible evidence do you have to support such an idea?” the Senator asked.
Leaning back in his chair, and staring up at the ceiling, Carothers paused for a few moments before replying. “It’s something the FBI turned over to us after getting involved in StarSight security. Apparently, a couple years ago they intercepted some Internet traffic, where a free-lance agent was solicited to do some undercover work. They couldn’t trace the correspondence in either direction…and they weren’t able to monitor the deal-making contact between agent and client. But, they know from the preliminaries that Tony Shane was the target; and, the objective was tosteal a software package.”
“What the Hell? Did they do anything to follow up on this intelligence?”
“Apparently…nothing,” Carothers replied. “The only reason they took any notice at all was because Shane had a security clearance. A report was filed, and it ended up on some Assistant Deputy Director’s desk for a couple years. Our request for security triggered somebody’s memory…and that’s how we found out about it.”
Moving past his anger at the FBI’s inaction, the Senator exclaimed, “OK. I can see where you’re going with this, Nathan. You think we can throw some bait to one of our spies. Let them think we’ve succeeded. They attempt to steal the package, and we intercept.”
“But,” the Senator continued, “how will that lead us to the terrorist plan? This “other” agent is not connected to Ali-Sheikh, is he?”
“Yes…I think he is, Gerry,” Carothers replied slowly.
Puzzled, the Senator furrowed his brow and shook his head. “I don’t understand, Nathan. We havetwo agents working for A
li-Sheikh? At cross-purposes? Doesn’t make sense.”
“No, Gerry. It doesn’t. But…whatdoes make sense isone agent…andtwo clients.”
“My God, Nathan! How much hare-brained speculation like this is justified by the facts?”
“There are two facts, Gerry: we see a subtle campaign, using the press, to sabotage the project; and we now learn that someone wanted to steal a successful StarSight package. These two objectives are incompatible. So, we may have two independent agents; or onedouble-crossing agent working for two clients. Do you have any idea which of these is more likely?”
“I haven’t the foggiest, Nathan…but I’m sure you’ll tell me. Right?”
“Sorry, Gerry. I can’t. I haven’t got a clue either.”
A blank expression appeared and remained on the Senator’s face for several seconds, as he searched Carothers’ eyes. He waited.
“The bottom line, Gerry, is that it doesn’t matter. The key fact is that there aretwo games going on. We assume that one of those games belongs to Ali-Sheikh. And, we can use it to get to him. Fast.
“So, let’s assume what works best for us. Let’s assume there’s only one agent. And he takes the bait. We can be pretty sure he won’t deliver the package to Ali-Sheikh. He’ll plan to deliver it to the other client. The one who wants to steal StarSight.”
“What good will that do, Nathan? That doesn’t get you to Ali-Sheikh. You don’t want the agent to run to the other client. That gets you nothing!”
“In fact,” Carothers responded, “that’sexactly what we want him to do. If the agent were to let Ali-Sheikh know that the StarSight project is working, we’d put the whole team at risk.
“No. We want him to steal the StarSight systemfor the other client . To do this he has to make amove . When he does, he becomes ‘visible’; we can nab him; and force him to arrange a meeting with the Ali-Sheikh contact. From there, we follow the trail until we get the information we need.”
“What kind of ‘move’ do you think he’ll make, Nathan?”
“We’re not going to leave that up to him, Gerry. We’re going to set him up. We make a big deal about transporting a working copy of the StarSight software to Langley by special courier. We make sure the arrangements are communicated among the project team…with your office…and with my office. We don’t know what manner of surveillance he’s using. He’s been a ‘ghost’ so far. But he’s getting information from one of those three sources. When we flood these information channels with our courier plan, he’s bound to pick it up. When he tries to intercept, we grab him.”
The Senator sat there for a long time, examining the tips of his fingers, working through many thoughts and emotions. Neither of them spoke.
Finally, the Senator broke the silence. “I don’t like this, Nathan. I don’t like this at all. There are way too many holes. Your theories could be all wet. We don’t even know if this ‘spy’ exists! And, even if he does, what if there isno ‘third party’? Our false information will simply trigger some murderous reaction by Ali-Sheikh. Then…even if we can protect all the principals involved…we won’t have learned anything about Ali-Sheikh’s plan.
“I can’t give my approval for this third option, Nathan…not unless we have some confirmation that your speculations are correct…and we have assurance that the project team will not be harmed.”
Carothers remained motionless, leaning back in his chair, and looked directly into the Senator’s eyes. “I hear you, Gerry…We’ll do everything humanly possible to keep them from harm…but wewill implement this plan…if we have not discovered the terrorist plan within the next week.”
Noting the concern in the Senator’s eyes, Carothers was thankful he had not revealed any more about their “spy friend”. Shane’s phone call after visiting CryptaGen had alerted Carothers to the existence of the SpyraNet stealth surveillance package, and to the singular expert, Max Winter. When Shane had heard about the system’s capabilities, he immediately suspected that it might have been involved in the mysterious Livermore e-mail incident. Although Windemere had not sent it, e-mail from his computer at Livermore had been received by Nagle and Carson, requesting database information from their universities. Neither Shane nor Carothers had forgotten about this incident, and the new information from CryptaGen persuaded them that Max had probably been responsible.
After Shane relayed his suspicions to Carothers, the CIA did a quick follow-up investigation to verify that Winter had indeed disappeared…not insignificantly during a “business” trip to Silicon Valley. Ominously, no photographs or fingerprint files of Max had been left behind. His office, apartment and leased car had been wiped clean. More chilling was news of the discovery of the lifeless, nude, mutilated body of one of Winter’s former co-workers, Andie Carey, abandoned in a dry creek bed in the desert 40 miles Southwest of Albuquerque. Evidence that she had been brutally abused sexually before succumbing to multiple stab wounds…and that this event probably had occurred simultaneously with Winter’s departure from Albuquerque…persuaded the Albuquerque PD that Max should be a suspect. Unlike CryptaGen or the Albuquerque PD, however, Carothers was aware of Max’s likely involvement in espionage, and he needed no jury trial to be convinced that Max was guilty of this heinous crime.
Their “friend” was not only a brilliant spy, but he was also a cold-blooded vicious killer. Ruthlessly, he had eliminated an unsuspecting innocent who had uncovered his indiscretions. And all that Carothers had to work with was a physical description of the man…who apparently resembled Tony Shane! His references and résumé were bogus; and none of his surveillance activities had even been detected. There was no clue to his whereabouts or identity. He was aphantom . Adeadly phantom .
The Bear was excited. He had received word that the EMP nuclear missile had been loaded successfully last night aboard the Russian submarine,Skibirsk . Today the sub would depart Murmansk, venturing out into the Barents Sea. Once the nuclear submarine was out in the open sea, only the Bear himself could prevent the chain of events from unfolding over the next two weeks exactly as had been planned, culminating with the missile launch on the 24th. Captain Kirschnikov had been instructed to contact the Bear immediately prior to the launch, to get final authorization. It was a risky, but essential, part of the plan. Communications required that the submarine would surface. Communications would be over a non-military transmission, routed by satellite, via Ali-Sheikh, directly to the Bear’s matching transceiver. The Bear had no intention of scuttling the attack at that time, but was concerned that something might transpire during the two weeks the nuclear submarine was at sea that might require a change of plans. His primary fear was that the StarSight project might successfully anticipate the terrorist operation.
The daily reports from Max had given every indication that the StarSight project wasnot going to be successful…at least not before the November 24 target date. More importantly, Johnny Treadwell, Ali-Sheikh’s “mole,” had been providing reports consistent with Max’s inputs.
Quietly, over the past year, the Bear had been setting up the financial and legal arrangements required to transfer his corporate headquarters to Zurich. That was now complete, and he was presently in the midst of moving his personal effects to a large isolated villa he had purchased in Alassio, at a spectacular sea-cliff location on the Italian Riviera. To provide accommodations while in Zurich, the Bear had leased two adjoining luxury suites on the top floor of the Hotel Schweizerhof, located on the Bahnhof Platz, in the heart of the banking and shopping center of this cosmopolitan city.
On November 23, the Bear would board a Swissair flight from Kennedy to Kloten International airport in Zurich. He had no idea how the missile attack would play out…but he was certain that the impact on the East Coast of the United States would be significant…not necessarily in property damage, but in human terror and loss of life. The direct explosive damage of the high-altitude nuclear burst, and collateral radiation exposure, at ground level, should be minimal. The device was des
igned to put most of the thermonuclear energy released into an EMP pulse. That pulse would affect surface electronic devices within a region encompassing the entire northeastern part of the United States, affecting a triangular area as far west as Chicago, southeast to Washington, DC, and northeast to Boston. This would cause chaos at ground level…including major communications disruptions, failures of emergency equipment in hospitals, confusion of energy-regulating systems, shut-down of railroad and automotive traffic regulating systems, and perhaps most dramatically, the disruption of non-hardened military communications. The Bear didn’t care much about those effects, except that he didn’t want to be in the U.S. when the chaos occurred. He was anticipating most excitedly the horror and terror that would strike passengers in several hundred packed wide-body aircraft finding themselves hurtling simultaneously towards certain death on the ground. The remote possibility that this event might draw the Americans and Russians into an exchange of nuclear missiles was of little concern to the Bear, but it was an added incentive for him to be residing in Switzerland on November 24.
On the morning of Tuesday, November 23, prior to his departure, the Bear would make direct contact with Max for the first time. The contact would be made over secure phone lines, pre-arranged by Ali-Sheikh. This exceptional departure from his normal procedure was deemed necessary because of the profound news he would have to share with Max. The good news would be that the 8 million-dollar balance payment would be increased to 15 million, and would be transferred to Max’s Swiss bank account when Max completed his mission. The bad news would be that Max’s mission would be changed to require the “elimination” of the entire StarSight team. Ali-Sheikh had made this last item a pre-requisite for his cooperation in smuggling the EMP warhead aboard theSkibirsk . And he insisted the deed take place on Wednesday, November 24, nearly simultaneously with the launch of the EMP missile from the Atlantic.