by S. P. Perone
“Come on, Nathan,” the Senator interrupted, “you think the initials are significant?”
“It happens frequently when people undercover try to assume new identities. Sometimes its subconscious choice; sometimes it’s convenient; but, in this case, I think our friend, Max, is simply taunting us. He shows up in our back yard, drinks our beer, makes small talk with Tony’s girlfriend, and leaves a bald-faced clue to his identity. Heknew we would eventually discover that SpyraNet and Max Winter were involved in this surveillance scheme. He left us hiscalling card . You gotta give this guy one thing…he’s gotcajones .”
“Surely, Max was here for more compelling reasons, Nathan,” Shane persisted. “Do you think he was trying to get information from Sarah…or me…or our students, that might give him some leverage in getting StarSight information?”
“Sorry, Tony. I didn’t mean to leave the impression that Max was in Rockvilleonly to taunt us. He would not have wasted his time. I assure you he did have serious business there…and perhaps you and Sarah have put your fingers on it. My best guess right now is that he had gotten a hint from your e-mails that there was something going on in your personal lives, and he needed to observe it up close to see if he could take advantage. What you and Sarah might think about is what…if anything…that might be. In the meantime, I’ll have someone follow up on the PeopleSoft connection. Although, I’m sure that was a fabrication. And, you should check with your contacts back at Daniels to see if anybody knew this ‘Michael Worth’.”
“Right now, though,” Carothers changed gears abruptly, “we need to hear about your latest progress on StarSight. Why don’t you fill us in quickly.”
“Right, Nathan,” Shane responded. “I’ll let Sarah fill you in on what changes we’ve made that have opened up some new doors.”
Grabbing her classified research notebook, Sarah turned to the last few pages and began to describe some significant up-grades they had made in the StarSight data files. The most important of these was the addition of military intelligence items from the most recent two-year period. This addition had been delayed by the need for a standard protocol for encoding information contained in communiques from different sources. Sarah had solved the problem in a manner that did not require human intervention. She adapted a text-scanning program to convert each of many thousands of text files into a single binary-coded statement characterizing each file.
Glossing over the details of this achievement, Sarah launched directly into a description of the predictions generated by the most recent StarSight runs. “We’ve been looking at data collected up through this past Sunday,” Sarah explained. “And, we’ve gotten some ‘hits’ that we have to look at very seriously. For example, the bombing of the bus in Tel Aviv last week, Wednesday, where five Israeli’s were killed. StarSight predicted that event.”
“That’s remarkable, Sarah!” the Senator exclaimed. “Why didn’t you say something earlier?”
“What Sarah hasn’t had a chance to explain,” Shane interjected, “is that we made that predictionafter the fact . We only got the system operational with the up-graded data files in the past twenty-four hours. We used the event from last week as a test case to see if we could have predicted it had the system been up and running last week.”
“This means the system is working, doesn’t it?” the Senator persisted. “Can’t you begin making real forward-looking predictions?”
“Well…maybe, Senator, but…” Tony began.
“Come on, Tony,” Carothers barked, “don’t play games. Get to the bottom line. Can you or can’t you make confident predictions right now?”
“I know you’d like a clear answer to that question, Nathan. But, I don’t think I can give it to you.”
Angrily, the Senator broke in. “Goddam it, Tony, please don’t go back to playing those academic games with us right now. We are on a very tight timeline…tighter than you might imagine…and we need you to make decisions. We don’t need more of yourfucking hypotheses!”
“All right, Senator,” Shane shot back, “I’ll give you what you want to hear. But you’re going to listen to mycaveats too. I won’t be bullied into giving credence to something that doesn’t deserve it.”
The silence at the other end of the line, punctuated with heavy breathing as it was, signaled their willingness to listen to what Shane had to say.
“The bottom line, Senator, is that during the most recent StarSight run, early this morning, we used data for the previous two weeks. Without the new military intelligence data, we see an event predicted fortoday , in Northern California. Possibly a bomb attack.”
Carothers jumped in. “How reliable is this prediction, Tony?”
“Because it’s based only on the old data we’ve tested pretty thoroughly with historical events, reliability should be close to 100%.”
“Jesus! We need to get on this right away,” Carothers exclaimed.
“But, what can you do, Nathan?” Shane asked.
“We know the two most probable terrorist targets in Northern California are the Federal Building in San Francisco, and the Plutonium facility at Livermore Lab. The Lab has their facility well protected, but we’ll advise them to re-route all traffic to some safe perimeter. We don’t want another Beirut on our hands.
“And, we’ll ask the FBI to go to full security alert for the Federal Building. They’ll probably shut it down for the day, and do a bomb search.
“We’ll get to that as soon as we hang up, Tony. But, right now, I want to know what you’re holding back? What else do you have?”
“Nathan, the rest is pretty speculative,” Shane responded.
“Damn it, Tony. Just give it to me! We don’t have time to pussy-foot around!”
“All right, Nathan. When we ran the system with the new military intelligence data, we sawanother event on the display screen predicted fortoday , somewhere inthe eastern United States . The type of terrorist event was not clear. We infer that it could be a novel type of action that hasn’t been seen before…like nothing in the data base.”
Pausing to let them digest this information, Shane waited for their response. Predictably, Carothers was first to press him. “Come on, Tony, I know you have more. Give us everything you’ve got…then, give us yourdisclaimers .”
Exchanging glances with Sarah, and shaking his head, Shane responded, “You’re right, Nathan, there is more. But, it will have to be Sarah who gives it to you. She’s the expert in interpreting these neural network clusters.”
Taking over, Sarah explained, “Interpreting this particular StarSight prediction is a real problem. We’ve added completely new kinds of data…because of new methods for collecting military intelligence over the past two years. To compensate for this, I’ve applied my event-simulation procedure again…butin reverse . I’ve used the new data format to introduce simulations for previous periods where there wereno terrorist events. This way, we’ve simulated a new background level for all recent data.”
“To get directly to the point,” Sarah continued, “we’ve observed that the removal of one specific type of intelligence data from the StarSight files will cause the predicted event todisappear from the display screen. That intelligence is the most recent Russiansubmarine tracking vectors .”
“So, on the basis of this observation, you’re predicting that a Russian submarine will be involved in a terrorist event directed against the eastern United States…today?” Carothers inquired.
“Exactly.”
“Can you add anything to this, Tony?” Carothers asked.
“Only that I agree with Sarah’s methods. It’s a damn fine piece of work. But…regarding the interpretation step…no one really understands the impact ofremoving selected data inputs from a neural network. When you have thousands of inputs, all interconnected internally, the impact of one specific input is impossible to predict.”
“But, youdo agree with herinterpretation ?” the Senator persisted.
“It’s the logical interpr
etation of the facts we have. But, this prediction isnot based on the way StarSight was designed. Therefore, we have no feeling for its reliability. Frankly, I give it very little credibility.”
“All right, Tony,” the Senator said impatiently. “Your concerns and disclaimers have been noted. Now, please tell me if you and Sarah have any additional data that might shed light on this predicted event. For example, do you have any indication of time of day? Or type of action that might be involved?”
“Sorry, Senator,” Shane replied, “we never have been able to get time-of-day predictions. Regarding the type of action, you and Nathan probably know better than we do what kind of intervention you might expect from a Russian submarine.”
“Yes. That’s true, Tony,” Carothers responded. “But, we don’t expect Russian subs to be involved in terrorist attacks. So, that’s why it’s extremely important for us to get as much insight from you as possible. So, please, Tony…Sarah…think for a moment. Is thereanything else that might be significant? Even something you don’t understand…please share it with us. Once we get off this phone, the Senator and I will be busy as Hell trying to discuss this whole situation intelligently with the President.”
Again, Shane and Sarah exchanged glances, and Shane nodded for Sarah to speak up. “There is one more thing, Nathan,” she began. “The way we identified this predicted event is because it popped up in the middle of a cluster of previously observed events. This was one of those clusters we call ‘none of the above’, because they’re one-of-a-kind events. It turns out that the closest item in this cluster corresponds to an event involving an Iraqi SCUD medium-range missile. This may be totally coincidental. But, proximity is generally considered significant in cluster analysis.”
Carothers and the Senator remained silent for several seconds, pensive, steeling themselves for what they must do with this information. Already, this evening in Zurich, one important player in the terrorist plot would be encountered…with the Senator’s wife, Ellen, the key to the success of the dangerous mission. Now, they had become aware that perhaps the terrorist action, that they had been trying desperately to uncover through many pathways, might very well be unfolding at this very moment somewhere in the eastern United States. They realized now the acute significance of the coincidental timing of Ahmed Sharif’s departure from New York City…adding the credibility factor that Tony Shane was missing. Thank goodness Tony and Sarah had not discarded their unusual observations. Surely, it went against all of their academic instincts to report the hypothesis they had described today.
Reading each other’s minds, the Senator and Carothers spoke almost in unison. “Tony…Sarah…thanks for this information.”
Continuing on his own, Carothers finished, “We have to go now. Lots to be done. But, we need for you to stay in touch with us. We may have other questions. Keep your cell phones with you. We may not be able to afford the luxury of finding a scrambler phone. Also, I’ll give you two international numbers you can use to get in touch with either of us, at any time.”
After giving them the phone numbers and instructions, Carothers and the Senator signed off. Immediately, Carothers placed a call to the White House to provide a briefing. Within minutes, the appropriate FBI and DOE offices had been notified to place their Northern California facilities on full alert. The President summoned his chief military advisers, and authorized Naval Intelligence to provide urgent information to Carothers.
The Cavern Room was exactly as the name implied: a banquet room carved out of the side of one of the hills surrounding the Bosselli Winery of the Livermore Valley. The room was situated as an offshoot from one of the several underground tunnels, leading through the steep hill and down into a large thirty-foot high cave used to store many large thousand-gallon vats of aging wines. The naturally controlled constant temperature provided a perfect environment for the delicate process.
Furnished with a large rustic Old Spanish wooden table and matching chairs, the Cavern Room could accommodate up to a dozen guests. Lighting was provided by two, massive wood and wrought iron chandeliers, with dozens of simulated candles arranged in several tiered circles, casting a soft orange many-pointed flickering glow. On the walls were several large simulated torches, each adding to the atmospheric lighting that reflected from the many-faceted crudely cut rock walls and ceiling of the room. Wide, thick, roughly hewn planks constituted the floor of the Cavern Room. Two irregularly-shaped portals with heavy, dark wooden doors, provided entry and exit for guests, while a heavy rustic swinging door at one end of the room allowed access for serving staff to the kitchen. The kitchen also served a more conventional dining room off of the main tasting room for the winery.
Gathered around the table on this Wednesday before Thanksgiving, the StarSight team was enjoying the sampling of several different varieties of Bosselli wines. At this moment, it didn’t appear they had a care in the world. They were trying very hard to enjoy an hour or two…their Thanksgiving dinner, and the companionship of colleagues with whom they had grown very close…escaping briefly the horrible burden they had been carrying around for the past month.
Despite their congenial mingling with the group, Sarah’s and Tony’s thoughts were still riveted on the disturbing conversation they had had with Carothers and the Senator. That pair’s ready acceptance of a StarSight prediction, that Tony had all but dismissed as unreliable, had them worried. Carothers probably had other corroborating information which, as usual, he would keep close to the vest. Accordingly, the prospect of a horrible terrorist action unfolding today in the U.S. was weighing heavily on their minds. It was not something they felt they could share with the rest of the group.
Adding to the feeling of malaise was the message Sarah had received just before they had left the Lab to drive to the winery. Luci Churchill and Sarah had spoken often by phone during the past month while she and Tony were in California. Luci was caring for her apartment, plants, and cat. Skeeter, the cat, had not been doing well, and Sarah was dreading calling her. Skeeter was twelve years old, and had been her companion since high school. The message had said to call at two o’clock, so she would have to excuse herself and leave the Cavern Room to go out and call Luci.
Driving down Tesla Road towards the eastern hills and the Bosselli Winery, Max relaxed in the front passenger seat of the black minivan with dark smoked-glass windows. Driving was a young lady, dressed in heavy black leather hiking boots, faded jeans, and black leather jacket. Her permed dark blonde hair was tucked under a black leather cap. A sun-darkened complexion graced a handsome face atop a trim, athletic six-foot frame. Introducing herself as Salomé, she had picked Max up at the Hertz rental office at the Livermore airport.
The long-anticipated telephone conversation with the Bear had taken place at four a.m. this morning, and Max had finally heard the Bear admit that his real interest was in terminating the StarSight project before it became successful. Today would be the day to achieve that.
Max allowed himself to appear appropriately dismayed by this news, and the Bear had responded by promising a substantial increase in his fee. In return, though, Max had been recruited to trigger the explosive device that had been planted this morning in the Cavern Room at the winery. The change of reservations from the Pleasanton Hotel had almost forced the Bear to find another platform for carrying out the attack. But, in the end, his operative had found a way to plant the explosives under the wooden planks of the Cavern Room floor. The only question remaining was how effectively the remote triggering device, which Max had found in his mailbox, would work through the walls of the cave.
After his conversation with the Bear, Max had been compelled to contact Solomon again. It would be necessary to move up the plan to which they had agreed recently. It would have to be implemented today. Fortunately, Solomon was ready to provide the facilities and the assistance that would be required, and they would be delivered early this afternoon. Salomé and the minivan were part of the package. The other part was at the Livermore
airport.
Solomon had been excited to learn that the StarSight system was working and would shortly be delivered to him. Max had checked and determined that five million-of the fifteen million-dollar fee had already been deposited in his Credit Suisse account. The only item that seemed to cause Solomon some grief was the news regarding all that would be included in the complete StarSight package. But, Max was persuasive, and Solomon had agreed reluctantly.
At one forty-five Wednesday afternoon, Max and Salomé slipped into the doorway used by the Bosselli winemaker to access the vats of wine deep inside the hillside. Because Max had had very little time to prepare this activity, he was concerned about encountering the winemaker or one of the other workers in the tunnel leading to the storage area. From minimal investigation, however, he learned that the winemaker should be in the laboratory running a battery of daily chemical tests from vat samples, and should not be using this passageway at this time.
They walked calmly through the tunnel, so as to give the impression they belonged there. Once entering the vast dimly lit storage cave, they moved to the right along the wall until they came to the large passageway which led past the Cavern Room and eventually out to the large tasting room. Before reaching the Cavern Room, the passageway curved first to the left, and then to the right, after which it continued about thirty feet to one entrance to the Cavern Room. Beyond the other entrance, the passageway continued another thirty feet, past the kitchen, and to an exit to the tasting room. The lighting in the main passageway was provided by widely spaced simulated torches, as in the Cavern Room. These were kept deliberately dim, projecting an atmosphere that tourists would expect in a natural cave.
After moving silently down the large curving tunnel, Max signaled to Salomé to stop just before reaching the last turn leading to the Cavern Room. He knew that at least one FBI agent would be posted outside the room; and he knew that Sarah would shortly be coming out to make her phone call…to answer the message he had left from “Luci”. As soon as he heard her come out, they would make their move. Only quick and decisive action would allow them to carry this off.