Connally was fighting hard in South Carolina, but he was not connecting with voters as one might have expected for a man who had plowed fields in Texas as a barefoot boy. At one stop in Greenville, Newsweek reported, he “declaimed on the virtues of revisited depreciation schedules as a means to promote capital formation.” The crowd of working poor had no idea what he was talking about.13
PRESIDENT CARTER WAS SERENELY riding the foreign-policy crises in Afghanistan and Iran—and using them to ride roughshod over Ted Kennedy. In polling in Illinois, whose primary was looming in mid-March, Carter was mauling Kennedy 64–17, according to the Chicago Tribune, while Bush was besting Reagan by an impressive 38–21 there.14 Even in Kennedy's home state of Massachusetts, Carter was showing unexpected strength. A multitude of former Kennedy supporters had defected to the president, and Teddy was compelled to spend humiliating time campaigning there. Desperate to win, he was spotted at a factory gate in North Boston for the 6 A.M. shift change, shaking hands in the frigid cold.
Some of Carter's more seasoned operatives remembered the fickleness of the public. The president had gone from 70 percent approval in 1977 to 29 percent approval by late summer of 1979,15 but had risen back to the 60s by December. He was due for another descent on the roller coaster. In fact, by late February 1980 his approval rating had already fallen to 52 percent.16 Economic anxiety was hurting Carter—Americans expected prices to continue going up and the economy to continue downward—and Carter's stalled foreign-policy initiatives, including reinstituting a military draft, did not help him either. The only good news in America was that spring training opened on March 4.
Compounding the problem, Carter's team made its first serious mistake in several months. In early March, the United States astonishingly joined fourteen other countries at the United Nations in denouncing Israel over settlements in the West Bank. Many American Jews were already distressed with Carter over the Camp David Accords and his perceived kowtowing to Arab oil sheiks. The UN vote was the first time America had ever opposed Israel in the Security Council. Reagan said such a move by the United States was “preposterous.”17 Kennedy pounced on Carter, calling it an “appalling betrayal.”18
Carter blamed the whole mess on miscommunication and said it was a mistake. The United States belatedly switched its vote, but the damage was done. It didn't help that the imbroglio emerged shortly before the forthcoming primaries in New York and Connecticut, two states with large numbers of influential Jewish Democratic liberal voters.
GERALD FORD FINALLY CAME out from merely shadowboxing with Reagan and threw a big left hook at the Gipper. In an interview with his old friend Barbara Walters of ABC he said there was a “50–50” chance that he would get into the contest. Ford denied to Walters that he would get in to “stop one candidate.”19 But soon, in an exclusive interview with Adam Clymer of the New York Times, Ford made his target clear: “Every place I go and everything I hear, there is the growing, growing sentiment that Governor Reagan cannot win the election.”20 He made the inevitable comparison to Barry Goldwater's crushing loss in 1964. When conservatives in the GOP responded with outrage, Ford backtracked, saying his comments had been taken out of context. “I said that there was a perception he was too conservative,” Ford claimed, not too convincingly.
Reagan counterpunched, reminding reporters that he'd been twice elected governor of a state with a 2–1 Democratic registration edge—and that he'd beaten Ford in the 1976 southern primaries with the help of Democratic voters. Reagan challenged Ford's noncandidacy, saying he should “come out here.… There's plenty of room.”21
Ford's posturing did nothing to help George Bush. Bush had already been accused of being a “stalking horse” for Ford, and if Ford got in the race, he would divide the anti-Reagan vote even more.22 Ford supporters placed the former president's name on the ballot in relatively liberal Maryland. In Illinois, thirty-five former supporters of Howard Baker announced their intention to run as Ford delegates.23 Bush's team now had something else to worry about. Bush said that he was not going to “roll over” for Ford, while Dave Keene said Ford was “mistaking affection for political support.”24
Ford's narrow loss four years earlier to Carter ate at him more than he let on. He wanted another shot at Carter, and felt Reagan owed him that shot. Years later, journalist Tom DeFrank wrote that Ford “emphatically told me … that Reagan should have graciously stepped aside in 1980 so he could run against Jimmy Carter again and was monumentally irked when he didn't.”25
While Ford was blasting Reagan, another former Republican standard bearer finally endorsed the Gipper for president. Barry Goldwater had supported Richard Nixon over Reagan in 1968 and Ford over Reagan in 1976. Reagan's famous speech in 1964 had raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Goldwater, but it took sixteen long years for “Mr. Conservative” to return the favor.
Reagan had not yet consolidated the “New Right” behind his drive for the White House. More militant members had been withholding their support for various reasons while others had cast their lot with Phil Crane or Connally. The first to support Reagan was the Fund for a Conservative Majority, whose pro-Reagan independent expenditure effort had begun in New Hampshire and carried through all the primaries, including Illinois. The second to come on board was Christian Voice, which launched an ambitious effort to contact five million Christian voters urging them to support Reagan and contribute to their organization. The funds were then used to put a half-hour interview with Reagan on independent television stations, including Christian stations in the South and Midwest, according to Gary Jarmin, head of the organization's Washington office. With Reagan speaking about his faith and moral stands, Christian Voice believed that this effort could mobilize millions of “moral” voters—born-again Protestants and conservative Catholics, Jews, and Mormons—in support of the Gipper.26
Another organization of the New Right, Americans for Conservative Action, blanketed South Carolina with anti-Bush flyers, charging him with being for gun control and federal funding of abortion. Bush was livid and was forced to defend himself yet again against spurious charges.27
The millions of dollars in independent support came none too soon for Reagan. Bill Casey had slashed campaign costs across the board. In South Carolina, for example, Casey canceled Reagan's charter plane, a Boeing 727, and instead rented a bus with “Reagan Express” signs taped on the side. The move saved tens of thousands of dollars, but it also created mayhem with the traveling press, some of whom were left high and dry, forced to hurriedly schedule commercial flights to cover Reagan's speeches. The decision to curtail the charters did not make for a happy press corps, but Reagan was in high spirits, out and about, meeting voters, listening to them, talking to them. He sat with a reporter from The State, Mike Clements, and mused about missing his ranch and the beautiful South Carolina countryside. After a grueling day, Reagan was still fresh as a daisy, while the staff and the reporters on the bus were dragging. Reagan explained, “You draw strength from the people.”28 Reporters were now noting how good Reagan looked, how ruddy and healthy and vibrant he seemed.
Riding on the bus with Reagan was the great former Yankee second baseman Bobby Richardson, but the biggest treat for Reagan came when he was introduced to a baby born just a month earlier on February 6, his birthday. The infant was named “Reagan.”29 The child would be the first of many to bear that honorific.
ON MARCH 4, GOP primary voters went to the polls in Vermont and Massachusetts. The day before the primaries, Bush was asked how he felt. The man who had been the front-runner just a week earlier replied, “Nervioso, muy nervioso.”30
He was right to be nervous. His formerly massive lead in Massachusetts had practically vanished. Bush barely eked out the victory. He received 31 percent of the vote … but so did John Anderson; Bush edged Anderson by only 1,200 votes (124,316 to 123,080). And Reagan nearly matched them both; despite having done little campaigning there, he tallied 29 percent (115,125 votes). In Vermont, Bush ca
me in a disappointing third with just 23 percent; Reagan came in first with 31 percent, while Anderson claimed 30 percent.31
The big winner of the day—though he won neither primary—was Anderson. After nearly stealing both primaries, he got the lion's share of laudatory media coverage, including an appearance on the Today show. Lots of independents and liberals had crossed over to vote for Anderson, which might have explained why he happily flashed the peace sign for photographers.
Moreover, a major constituency of Anderson's was young students, and New England was chock-full of them, especially Boston, where one in twelve inhabitants was enrolled in college. On primary night Anderson's young troops, students from Harvard, Tufts, Boston University, and dozens of other universities, gathered at his headquarters, drank beer, and screamed each time a network anchor gave out more favorable news about their man's progress. Anderson had attended Harvard Law, so he understood the culture of the campus. Bush referred to Anderson's showings as a “freak” occurrence,32 and with that, when Anderson appeared on campuses, he addressed his young supporters as “my fellow Anderson freaks.”33
Reagan was scored a survivor for having won two in the Northeast and been competitive in a third. But columnists pummeled poor Bush. He was only one delegate behind Reagan, 37–36,34 but expectations had once again defeated him. He had been expected to score a major win in the Bay State instead of a narrow win and to place first or second in Vermont, not an unimpressive third. The Miami Herald called it a “minuscule boomlet” and Bush himself candidly said, “A landslide it wasn't.”35
Moderates, growing more concerned about Reagan in Connecticut and other states around the country, began sending Ford telegrams of encouragement. It would be a major embarrassment for Bush to lose in the state where he had grown up.
LIKE THE GOP CANDIDATES, the Democrats split the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries. Ted Kennedy ended up winning his home state handily, taking 65 percent to Carter's 29 percent.36 Predictably, the Carter White House pooh-poohed the results—Massachusetts, after all, was the Kennedy fiefdom—and Teddy caught no bounce out of it. Worse for Kennedy, Carter won neighboring Vermont convincingly.
The senator felt miserable with a bad cold. At this point, Kennedy was actually ahead of Carter in the delegate count, 113–89, but as the saying went, nobody paid this any never mind.37 He was planning a last-ditch effort against Carter in Illinois and the New York and Connecticut primaries, all just over the horizon, but he got himself involved in a local dispute between the Chicago Firefighters Union and the city's mayor, Jane Byrne. Striking municipal workers in Chicago protested Kennedy—labor's best friend on Capitol Hill for years—and Carter, who had often been indifferent to the concerns of organized labor, was benefiting.
Nothing seemed to go right for Ted Kennedy.
AFTER HIS DISAPPOINTMENT IN New England, Bush pressed on to Florida. He took it to Reagan, reminding the GOP faithful that when they had nominated Goldwater in 1964, “the party self-destructed.”38
Bush's campaign had produced some tough radio and newspaper ads going after Reagan, but then scrapped them at the last minute for fear of a backlash. The ads accused Reagan of “flip-flops” over the ERA and abortion. Then they made a harsh comparison between Carter and Reagan: “Can we afford the same mistake twice?” In a final blow, the ads said Reagan “has no real understanding of the dangers we face in the decade of the '80s.… He didn't even know who the president of France was”—a reference to an interview Reagan had done with Tom Brokaw of the Today show several months earlier.39 Dave Keene had told reporters several days earlier that Bush's campaign would pursue a tougher line of attack on Reagan.
Although Bush was drawing big crowds throughout Florida, the volatility of the GOP contest fueled speculation that former president Ford might—or should—get into the race. Campaign maestro Stu Spencer made several probing calls around the country to Republicans, taking soundings as to how they felt about Ford jumping in. Since the calls were self-selected, naturally the vast majority were a go for Ford. Spencer was a laid-back GOP operative who had been active in grassroots politics until he ran Nelson Rockefeller's California primary campaign that ultimately lost to Goldwater in 1964. Reagan had picked Spencer and his partner, Bill Roberts, to run his winning gubernatorial campaigns in 1966 and 1970. But Spencer had been excluded from the early planning for Reagan's 1976 insurgent challenge, so he worked instead for his fellow moderate Ford. He complained privately that Reagan was too conservative to be president. He also groused that Ed Meese and others had cost him business in California, and this too prompted his desire to stop Reagan.
Ford went down to Florida to give a speech at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg—for which he was paid $50,000, as with all of his appearances. The three networks, the BBC, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and dozens of other outlets caught up with Ford at the small college to read the tea leaves.40 The national media were on their guard. The past three years they had heard “Ford is running,” “Ford isn't running,” “Ford might run”; they referred to him behind his back as the “Hamlet of Rancho Mirage.”41
Spencer coyly told the reporters, “I think you can look for a news story next week.” An undergraduate who attended Ford's lecture on “National Character” was skeptical. “I've never heard anybody who can talk for an hour and not say anything,” said Tim Storm.42
If Ford was going to take the plunge, he would have to decide quickly. Filing deadlines were looming in many states, fundraising was imperative, and there was the matter of staffing such an operation. Not to mention bank accounts, phones, stationery, office equipment, scheduling, babysitting the media, chartering a plane, food, coffee, liquor. It was akin to building a major corporation over a weekend.
Ford aides began drawing a campaign plan. In early March, a group led by Thomas C. Reed, Ford's former secretary of the air force, and Leonard Firestone, Ford's wealthy next-door neighbor in California, formally created the Draft Ford Committee. Reed, like Spencer, had once worked for Reagan. A young former Ford White House aide, Larry Speakes, was recruited as the committee's spokesman. Also working on the Ford campaign plan was none other than the Bush campaign's pollster, Bob Teeter.43 People were gossiping about that one, but one source later said that Teeter had only done so with Jim Baker's approval.44
Everyone in Ford's inner circle was convinced that the former president was running. Ford had already met once in secret with John Sears, and he scheduled a second, more public meeting with Sears to discuss his campaign.45 After the meeting, Sears and Ford held a press conference. Sears told the gathered media, “I believe Ford could be nominated. I don't think the timing is too late.”46 Sears was asked whether he thought Reagan was unelectable, but refused to answer.
More encouragement for Ford came from moderates in the GOP. Bob Dole, still not out of the race formally but out of the race in every measurable way, called Ford and urged him to jump in.47 Any way Dole could, he would twist the knife into his old enemy Bush. Republican governors Robert Ray of Iowa, William Milliken of Michigan, and Richard Snelling of Vermont came out for Ford as well.48
Finally, Henry Kissinger came out publicly and called on Ford to jump into the GOP contest. Kissinger had met with Ford for more than two hours at Rancho Mirage and emerged saying Ford had a “duty” to run. Of all Ford's men, Kissinger may have been the most ideologically opposed to Reagan's election, as it would mean a repudiation of détente. He'd said for months that the only candidate running whom he could not work with was Reagan.49
Kissinger told the press that Ford was the only Republican of stature in whom foreign leaders had confidence. But he disavowed any knowledge of such earthly matters; the master Machiavellian infighter and political operator told reporters with a straight face, “I am not a politician.”50 Reporters giggled and smirked. It was nearly as disingenuous as Ford telling reporters that he was not “scheming and conniving” to get the nomination.51Newsweek reported that the former president would reappoint K
issinger secretary of state if he once again occupied the Oval Office.52 Kissinger coveted a path back to power.
Ford went to New York City and met with a dozen prominent Republicans, all Reagan critics, all of whom encouraged him to run, including Senator Jacob Javits. They came away convinced that Ford would indeed make the race. Grass-roots efforts to file slates of Ford delegates in New York, Connecticut, and Michigan were moving forward.53
ABC's World News Tonight, anchored by Max Robinson, opened dramatically on March 7 with a report that “former President Ford, who four years ago went to the political mat with Ronald Reagan and won, is apparently very close to getting into this year's contest to try and head Reagan off once again.”54
Evans and Novak reported that Ford had made the decision to get in once and for all. He would become a formal candidate on March 20.55 That was it. The two columnists had the best sources in journalism, even though some critics referred to them as “Errors and No Facts.” Rowland Evans had spoken directly to Ford, who had expressed his concerns that the primary season had not produced a consensus candidate and said that he figured he could garner the entire Bush and Anderson vote while cutting into Reagan's base.
Rendezvous with Destiny: Ronald Reagan and the Campaign that Changed America Page 28