by Ernst Roets
On the other hand, what is particularly concerning is that, while the TAU SA/AfriForum data clearly indicate lower numbers for farm attacks, the numbers for farm murders in the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 are higher than those of the SAPS. This, while the TAU SA/AfriForum data include only incidents that could be verified. The reason for this could either be that farm murders are under-reported to the SAPS, that the problem is downplayed by the SAPS – most probably in the extent to which farm murders are categorised as such for reporting purposes – or that the SAPS data process should simply be regarded as unreliable. My speculation is that the reason why AfriForum and TAU SA’s data on farm murders are more comprehensive than that of the SAPS, is because of a combination of the latter two reasons – a downplaying of the problem by the SAPS, combined with an unreliable data process. (Keep in mind that the SAPS data are published according to financial years, while the AfriForum data are published according to calendar years.)
The discrepancy between the statistics of the SAPS and TAU SA/AfriForum is alarming. It is probably for the above-mentioned reason that the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) has indicated that the figures of the TAU SA/AfriForum carries more weight with them than those of the SAPS.
WORKING WITH RATIOS
But how do these numbers compare with what is happening in the rest of South Africa? It is widely known that South Africa is a violent country, suffering from high crime levels. It has even been described as ‘one of the least lawful countries on earth’,14 with its rape and murder rates reaching numbers one and three respectively in the world in 2010.15 A 2013 report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) ranked South Africa ninth in the world for its high murder rate.16 This slight decline in the murder rate ranking can partly be attributed to the significant increase in violent crime in the Americas in recent years. This downward trend ended in 2011, however. Since then the murder rate in South Africa has increased every year until publication of this book in 2018.17
Figure 4 provides the total number of murders in South Africa from the financial years of 2007/2008 up to 2016/2017.
During the year of 2007/2008, about 50,4 people were murdered on average every day in South Africa. This number declined each year to about 42,6 in 2011/2012, and then increased again each year up to 52,1 murders per day on average for the whole of 2016/2017. This amounts to one murder every 28 minutes.
Figure 4: Total number of murders committed in South Africa from 2007/2008–2016/201718
Subsequently, we have often been confronted with the argument that high levels of farm attacks are only another manifestation of the fact that South Africa has high crime levels. As a matter of fact, the argument is often heard that those who complain about farm attacks and farm murders are biased, because the statistics on assault and murder in South Africa’s townships are said to be much worse. Some take an even harder line on this, arguing that the call for the prioritisation of farm murders is racist, as the majority of people who are murdered on farms are white, while black people are murdered in higher numbers elsewhere. This argument was used repeatedly, among others by Zweli Mnisi, the spokesperson of the Minister of Police, in 2012 and 2013.
This is especially the argument of many politicians and certain politically inclined officers at the Department of Police.
At first glance, there appears to be merit in the argument that farm murders are merely part of the fabric of an already violent society. Between the financial years of 2007/2008 and 2016/2017 a total of 173 428 people were murdered in South Africa.19
In comparison it might seem reasonable to conclude that people complaining about several thousand farm murders need to get their priorities straight. About half a million South Africans have been murdered since 199420 and although the number of murders in South Africa has gradually declined since then, a South African still has a bigger chance of being murdered in this country than citizens in countries suffering from terror attacks, announced the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) in 2017. Also, in the financial year of 2015/2016, 623 223 contact crimes (murder, assault, robbery and sexual offences) were reported, which seems to make the number of farm attack crimes look small by comparison.21
CALCULATING THE RATIO PER 100 000
The problem with the above-mentioned argument is that it is based on a misunderstanding regarding the nature of statistics. These numbers cannot be compared without considering the size of the group in which these crimes took place. If the proponents of the ‘there are more murders in townships’ argument were consistent, they would also have to argue that the poaching of rhinoceroses should not be prioritised, since rhinos comprise only a small minority of all animals poached in South Africa. The poaching of rhinos in South Africa is, for example, surpassed by thousands by the poaching of marine species in the Table Mountain National Park alone.22
The difference is of course that the total number of rhinos is very small, and that the poaching of rhinos, if not stopped, may lead to their extinction. When the number of rhinos poached each year is compared to the total number of rhinos, the picture becomes much bleaker.
This is precisely the reason why murder statistics are generally determined as a ratio of victims per 100 000 of a particular group. By determining only the total number of persons murdered is not sufficient, as 100 out of ten million is fairly low (1 per 100 000), as opposed to a 100 persons murdered out of ten thousand (1 000 per 100 000).
If murders in South Africa are calculated as murders per 100 000, the size of the South African population has to be taken into account. The South African murder rate can then be indicated as follows:
Figure 5: South African murder rate, calculated as the number of people murdered per 100 000 per year23
Once again, this is an extremely high number, especially when the South African murder rate is compared to that of other countries. The murder rate in the United Kingdom, for example, amounts to 1 per 100 000 per year. In the US, the figure is 4,7 per 100 000. The global average is about 6,2 per 100 000, as can be seen from Figure 6.24
Contrary to popular belief, South Africa does not have the highest murder rate in the world. Not by headcount, nor by rate, although it certainly has one of the highest in the world by both these measures. In 2012, 50 108 people were murdered in Brazil. The murder rate was, however, lower than that of South Africa, because of the fact that Brazil has a significantly larger total population than South Africa. In the same year, South Africa was number six in the world in terms of headcount. When it comes to the rate per 100 000, Honduras is in fact the country with the highest murder rate, with 90,4 per 100 000 people murdered in 2012. Venezuela came in second with 53,7. On this list, South Africa scored 11th place out of 218 countries.25
Figure 6: Murder rate per 100 000 of selected countries, compared to that of South Africa26
So when we are saying that farm murders are unique because of their frequency, we need to consider not only the headcount, but the rate per 100 000. To do this, we need to compare the number of people murdered during farm attacks with the number of people who could potentially become victims of these crimes. Unfortunately, this is more problematic than it seems, firstly because a highly accurate estimate of the total number of people living on South African farms is unknown, and secondly because it is not only people who live on farms that could be victims, but also people who visit farms. What we may use as a base number is the latest available figures on the total number of commercial farmers in South Africa.
Map 2: Homicide rates by country or territory (2012 or latest year, excluding 2016/2017 data) 27
According to Ernst Janovsky, Head of Absa AgriBusiness, there were about 128 000 commercial farmers in South Africa in 1980. This number had dropped to 58 000 in 1997, and then again to below 40 000 in 2011. Predictions are that this number will drop to below 15 000 more or less by 2025.28 The exact number of commercial farmers in South Africa is a debated topic. Johan Burger, senior research consultant at the Institute for Security Studies (
ISS), recommends using the 2007 Census of Commercial Agriculture29 as a frame of reference. The census recorded that there were 32 375 commercial farmers in South Africa. The term commercial farmers in this context refers to people running farming operations either full time or part time. This figure only included commercial farms registered to pay value added tax (VAT). This figure cannot be used as a base line for comparing the total number of farm murders, as all who are murdered on farms are not necessarily commercial farmers. To calculate the rate at which commercial farmers are murdered, we would need to determine how many of the victims of farm murders are commercial farmers, as opposed to their family members or their staff or visitors to farms. This is what TAU SA and the ISS have attempted on several occasions. Using these figures, the murder rate of South Africa’s commercial farmers (or the farmer murder rate) was calculated at 98,8 per 100 000 in 2011,30 132,8 per 100 000 in 201431 and 156 per 100 000 in 2016.32
It should be noted that these calculations are not entirely scientific, for the reasons provided above. ‘The size of the numbers involved also makes this type of calculation at best an indication rather than a scientifically acceptable ratio,’ says Burger.33 Gareth Newham, Head of the Governance, Crime and Justice Division at the ISS, adds: ‘I do not really know how one could get an accurate estimate of the murder and attack rate on farms given the complexities involved.’34 Nonetheless, it remains a broad indication and the best attempt to date to calculate a ratio at which farmers are murdered.
The notion that it is ‘near impossible’ to calculate a farm murder rate has also been expressed by the fact-checking organisation Africa Check.35 AfriForum is, however, of the opinion that it is not impossible to reach plausible range estimates especially for the rate at which commercial farmers are murdered.
These calculations should be based on the number of likely commercial farmers and the proportion of the victims of farm murders who are in fact commercial farmers. An analysis of 1 937 victims of farm murders by TAU SA has indicated that 1 255 (64,8%) of the victims were the farmers themselves.36 We might, for example, use a breakdown by ANI for the financial year of 2016/2017, which revealed that 43 of the 74 farm murders committed in that year occurred on farms, as opposed to smallholdings.37 We can then multiply that number by 64,8% to reach a closer estimate of the number of victims who were in fact farmers and not families, visitors or labourers. We can then estimate the number of commercial farmers to be somewhere between 30 000 and 35 000. Considering all of these, the farmer murder rate for that year could be estimated to be somewhere between 79,6 and 92,9 per 100 000.
It is conceivable that adding smallholding data would increase the farmer murder rate. This should, however, not be done for the sake of calculating the murder rate, due to uncertainties about the number of smallholdings in the country. This matter will be researched in more detail by AfriForum.
The farm murder rate is extremely high. It is close to double the rate at which police officers are murdered in South Africa. This, despite the fact that one may understand police work to be dangerous, while farming is not supposed to be a dangerous occupation – at least not in terms of your chances of being murdered.38
COMPARING TO OTHER CRIMES
It has been pointed out that criticism of the campaign against farm attacks is often embedded in the notion that farm attacks or farm murders are rarely compared to other crimes. It has also been pointed out that the only reasonable way to make such a comparison would be to consider the size of the group.
Using 2002/2003 as a reference, James Myburgh, editor of Politicsweb, compares the number of household robberies to the number of households in South Africa, and then also the number of farm attacks to the number of farms in South Africa. He concludes that in that year, South African farms were 16,7 times more likely to be attacked than South African households were likely to be robbed.39
Building on Myburgh’s research, Marie-Louise Antoni, a freelance journalist, calculates these numbers for the years 2013 to 2016 and concluded that farms were still up to eight and nearly nine times more likely to be attacked than other households.40
REFINING THE FIGURES
It should be noted at this stage that there is much work to be done in the calculation of farm murder ratios. The fact that the calculations are based on the findings of a census that is more than ten years old is already problematic, not even counting other technical issues that may arise from that particular census. Furthermore, determining national averages and comparing to national averages is often misleading, given the fact that averages may obscure regional or even local extremes that may muddy the waters and distort our conclusions.
South Africa is well known for its extreme crime rates. Twenty per cent of all murders in South Africa are reported at just 30 police stations. This is 2,6% of all the police stations in the country.41 This is the problem with national averages – these figures can easily become distorted as a result of the inclusion of extreme cases. It would be foolish to simply compare the national average rate at which South African commercial farmers are murdered (or farmer murders) with the national average adult male murder rate, and then draw hard conclusions from this opaque picture. One would first need to understand, for example, whether some parts of the country are more dangerous than others. One should then ask whether comparing farmer murders to the national average male murders is appropriate, or whether farmer murders should rather be compared to rural murder rates or murder rates in urban areas comprising the same socio-economic cohort as farmers.
A more appropriate manner to deal with the South African farmer murder rate would not be to look at national averages, but to determine the rates for particular farming communities and to compare these rates with particular urban communities.
At this stage, it is premature to speak about farm murder rates in South Africa with absolute authority. A lot more hard work and analyses need to be done, not only to derive credible and accurate national averages, but especially to determine regional or even local rates and compare these with other regional or local rates for other communities.
Nonetheless, we can start to draw some important initial insights. Preliminary estimates to date from various sources suggest that farmers are murdered at least at the same rate as the average South African male. However, we also know that the average national murder rate is skewed higher by a few very dangerous precincts in poor, high-density urban areas.
Myburgh rightly points out that a major problem with comparing a national farmer murder rate to the national average is that most murders fall in the category of ‘social fabric crimes’ – in other words, cases where someone is stabbed by an associate in a drunken brawl or a man beats his wife to death in a rage – while farm murders are by definition not social fabric crimes. ‘A like-for-like comparison (of the farmer murder rate to the South African murder rate) would be between the rate of farmer murders with the national rate of South Africans killed during robberies and other such crimes,’ explains Myburgh. ‘In their report on the 2011/2012 crime statistics, the SAPS states that 16% of murders are committed during the commissioning of other crimes. A back-of-the-envelope calculation puts the national rate for this kind of murder at just under five killings per 100 000 people.’ 42
Social fabric murders must be deliberately excluded from our calculations regarding farmer murders. Stripping out social fabric crimes from the national average murder rate so that one is comparing apples with apples would therefore very likely show that the rate of farmer murders is considerably greater than the national average rate.
Finally, it is clear from provincial data on farm murders that various farm murder hotspots may also skew the national average. Not all farming regions are equally dangerous. TAU SA and AfriForum’s data show that the overwhelming majority of farm murders take place in the eastern part of South Africa. (See Chapter 7.)
Another aspect that has not yet been properly researched is a comparison of the frequency with which victims of farm attacks are
tortured to the frequency with which victims of household robberies are tortured. It is conceivable that the victims of farm attacks are tortured at a significantly higher rate.
Regardless of the challenges in calculating accurate statistics and making appropriate comparisons, conservative analyses to date with the best available data show that South African farming communities are among the most vulnerable communities in an already violent country.
The White Cross Monument, erected near Polokwane in Limpopo,
to commemorate the victims of farm murders.
Photo: Reint Dykema
Two shots went off. ‘I thought they were firing at me, but obviously they were firing at Susan,’ says Robert. What Robert did not know at the time, was that the shooter was the brother of a man who had recently been fired by Sue for his involvement in stock theft. One of the bullets hit her on the forehead, above the left eye. It bounced from her head and came out above the right eye. Sue was knocked out immediately. She was still alive. That was when they grabbed Robert.
CHAPTER 4
Brutality: How bad does it get?
As if the frequency with which South African farmers are being attacked and killed is not enough, the extreme levels of brutality that accompany these crimes are a matter of grave concern.
According to criminologist Christiaan Bezuidenhout, tortures during farm attacks are both instrumental and non-instrumental by nature, as the victims are sometimes tortured with the aim of obtaining something from them (such as the keys to the safe), but also to inflict psychological harm.1