We bought tickets on the Coast Daylight, which was leaving for Oakland in thirty minutes, and sat ourselves down in the Green Zone waiting area with our tickets showing from our top pockets, like everybody else. The economy sections of the train were already full, so we were forced to buy First Class Ultras, which are four times as expensive as normal coach seats. We consoled ourselves with the thought that a police spot check of two priests in the VIP cars was unlikely.
Documents from the Acting Presidency
I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place.
—Last words of Adam Smith, 1790
ON THE ROAD
The federal government has been in transit since Warday.
Though diminished in size, it is still a complex institution. Because the current President has not been legitimized by the ballot, he considers himself more a caretaker than a leader.
For example, he would not grant me an interview on the premise that it would not be in keeping with his “custodial” role, as he described it. Acting President White is in office simply because he was vacationing at Key Largo on Warday, and had the good sense to stay there for a month rather than attempting to return to Washington. He was Undersecretary of the Treasury, and as such was the highest federal official to both survive the war and agree to serve as President.
I have collected here a sampling of the sort of documents that might cross the President’s desk on a given day. They reflect, more than anything, a government trying to grapple with what happened to it, and to identify the direction of the future.
There was resistance to my getting these documents. Even some recently appointed federal officials are nervous that there will eventually be trials. I think not. I suspect that the people are beyond placing the details of blame.
When I found resistance to my requests, I reminded my contacts that the government has a long tradition of disclosure. The present bureaucracy is very concerned with traditions, right down to the painting of the few government cars with the exact L.A. motor-pool designations they would have had before the war, and the meticulous use of the old bureaucratic forms for every functional detail.
These three documents are about the one effect of Warday that is hardest to grapple with—in a way, the most consistently surprising effect: radioactivity.
It is what worries the acting President the most.
MEMORANDUM
TO: CHARLES F. DURRELL, JR.
Assistant to the President for Emergency War Affairs
FROM: Winston Sajid
Chairman, Committee on Long-Term Effects
National Security Agency
DATE: 30 March 1992
SUBJ: 12th Report on Atmospheric Effects
Concurrent studies by U.S. and United Kingdom task forces suggest a continuing deterioration of stratospheric conditions.
Specifically, there has been an observed depletion or thinning of the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere. Studies conducted in the summer of 1988 have been used as a baseline measure. A full report on all aspects of atmospheric deterioration is complex, but for purposes of summary it can be reported that an overall depletion of approximately 14 percent has occurred in four years.
It must be emphasized that while a further depletion might be expected in future years, it is not possible at this time to project a statistical trend with any certitude. Such a trend is difficult to predict because (1) little data were collected for approximately 18 months following the war, until atmospheric studies were resumed by the U.K. and other Western European nations; and (2) such a dramatic change in ozone levels is unprecedented and existing mathematical models are not sophisticated enough to consider all the variables.
Data are presently being gathered to document the observed increases in skin cancers, increased propensities to skin burns and rashes, and the most significant ecological effects, such as the warming trends at the North and South poles, the disappearance of some subtropical vegetation, and the global depression in crop production.
At this time, the American-based U.K. atmospheric teams are preparing a series of high-altitude rocket surveys, as well as completing, with the University of Tokyo’s Atmospheric Research Laboratory, a multivariate computer model designed to calculate long-term ozonal changes.
The President will be informed as soon as this Agency has had a chance in the next six months to review the results of these studies.
* * *
CONFIDENTIAL
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT
PROJECTED LONG-TERM RADIATION EFFECTS AS A RESULT OF THE OCTOBER 1988 WAR
PREPARED BY THE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY
DECEMBER 7, 1992
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On December 1, 1992, the Livermore National Laboratory completed a six-month effort to assess existing studies on the long-term radiation effects of the October 1988 war. Data from this study were then used to calculate the somatic and genetic effects that can be expected over the next 35 to 40 years. Using information from European and Japanese sources, the study was also able to assess long-term radiation effects on areas (1) outside of the United States affected by fallout, and (2) within the Soviet Union as a result of the American counterattack.
BACKGROUND OF THE ATTACK
The Soviet attack in October 1988 was directed against three urban centers (New York, Washington, D.C., and San Antonio, Texas) and against the operational SAC bomber bases and ICBM fields located in four upper Central and Western states (Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota). It is believed that some 300+ megatons (MT) of effective yield were realized in this attack. The Soviets employed a strategy against urban centers of detonating their weapons at a height of some 7,000 feet, which was clearly intended to heighten the range of destruction.
Against military targets they employed a mixed strategy of airbursts against airbases and groundbursts against hardened missile silos. Airbursts and groundbursts above cities appear to have averaged some 10 MT each.
It should be remembered that impacted areas remain highly radioactive for a period of time, although considerable radioactive decay will occur within the first 30 days. Fallout, however, continues over an extended period of time. While lethal doses of radiation may not occur, sublethal doses have been common; most of this fallout, sufficient to have caused considerable injury, was material deposited in the troposphere and brought down to earth over a period of weeks, largely by rain.
Some fallout was placed into the stratosphere, where it will continue to fall to earth over a period of years. Radioactive elements such as strontium 90 and carbon 14 have particularly long lives and pose the greatest danger over the long term.
Our projections for long-term radiation effects are perhaps most affected by the fallout of these dangerous elements.
PROJECTED LONG-TERM EFFECTS FROM RADIATION
Given the nature of the Soviet attack, the targets, calculated MY yield, and existent and projected fallout, the following somatic and genetic effects can be anticipated in the United States alone over the next 35–40 years:
SOMATIC EFFECTS
Cancer deaths 3,000,000
Thyroid cancers 2,000,000
Thyroid nodules 3,000,000
GENETIC EFFECTS
Abortions due to chromosomal damage 1,500,000
Other genetic effects 4,500,000
These same effects, considered for the Northern Hemisphere (concentrated between 30 degrees and 60 degrees North Latitude) for the same time period, are as follows:
SOMATIC EFFECTS
Cancer deaths 1,500,000
Thyroid cancers 1,400,000
Thyroid nodules 2,000,000
GENETIC EFFECTS
Abortions due to chromosomal damage 850,000
Other genetic effects 3,000,000
The estimated effects on the Soviet Union as a result of the American attack, over the same time period, are as follows:
SOMATIC EFFECTS
Cancer deaths 1,500,000
Thyroid cancers 2,
500,000
Thyroid nodules 3,600,000
GENETIC EFFECTS
Abortions due to chromosomal damage 1,750,000
Other genetic effects 2,000,000
These projections, of course, do not include those individuals killed either during the attack or shortly thereafter.
* * *
PRESIDENTIAL BRIEFING PAPER
National Security Council
Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects
August 27, 1992
The Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects was asked by the Executive Office on August 1, 1992, to prepare a summary of information available on the physiological and related socio-psychological effects observed to date in victims of the nuclear bombings of 1988, especially on those effects caused by or related to radiation. Further, we were asked to report wherever possible on data for both the United States and the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, scientific information is largely unavailable from the Soviet Union. Secondary observations from visiting European teams suggest, however, that long-term trends observed here in the United States are generally comparable to trends believed to exist in the USSR. It is not the intention of this summary report to describe political developments, as more complete studies of the subject are available from other government agencies.
The Committee wishes to stress from the outset that while this report summarizes a considerable body of evidence, based on classic prewar studies as well as on American and British studies undertaken since 1988, only major trends are reported here. Contemporary studies, for example, have been conducted only during the last three years, although some five years have passed since Warday. It must be noted that the full, long-term consequences of massive radiation dosages cannot be known completely at this time; this is particularly true of genetic effects.
As requested, this report will address presently observed trends in physiological/genetic injuries caused by war-related radiation exposure. Where appropriate, however, related socio-psychological effects also will be described. It is important to note that these data describe only survivors of the attack.
1.1 NEOPLASMS
The single most dramatic trend observed to date is in the inordinate number of radiation-induced neoplasms, or cancers, from some 30 percent nationwide before the war to almost 60 percent today. Studies conducted by the National Centers for Disease Control in the Washington , D.C., zone, and by the joint American-British Radiation Effects Teams in the South Texas zone, provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that perhaps as much as 90 percent of the affected populations in both zones suffer to some degree from radiation-induced cancers. Of this population, depending upon radiation dosage (both short and cumulative), more than 60 percent have experienced malignant neoplastic diseases. Skin tumors are perhaps the most common, followed by lung, stomach, breast, and ovary/reproductive organs. The prewar cancer rate for the entire population, excluding cancer of the skin, was perhaps 30 percent; of that population, some 15–18 percent died. Exposure to radiation at the 150–200-rem level, however, effectively doubles the rate of cancer. Studies conducted after Warday suggest that more than half of the population in or near bombed areas suffered rem exposures at the 350–500 level. Aerial surveys of the Texas and New York zones suggest that individuals as far away as 2.5 miles from GZ [Ground Zero] experienced exposure levels of 100–150 rems. Those individuals two miles from GZ probably received exposures in the 500-rem level. Demographic correlates, therefore, suggest that in these two urban zones alone, more than 35 million persons experienced radiation levels sufficient to cause cancer. Correcting for those killed instantly and those who died within the first six months, some 15 million persons have now, or can be expected to have, malignancies.
Related to the dramatic rise in cancer rates is the substantial rise in leukemia, of which granulocytic leukemia is perhaps the most frequently observed. Consequently, there has been a dramatic rise in related blood diseases.
While cancer and leukemia represent the most dramatic radiation-disease trends, it must be remembered that radiation fundamentally attacks the cellular system of the body. This occurs because ionizing radiation creates changes in individual cells. When sufficient changes occur, the individual organ ceases to function properly. Cells of different types, and therefore different organs, have varying levels of radio-sensitivity. Consequently, all of the following organs are susceptible, in descending order of sensitivity:
• lymphoid tissue and bone marrow
• epithelial tissues, such as the ovaries and testes and the skin
• blood vessels
• smooth and striated muscles
• differentiated nerve cells
Nerves in general are the most resistant to radioactivity, although the nerves of embryos and of the adult cerebellum are exceptions and are quite sensitive.
1.2 CATARACTS
The incidence of non-vision-disturbing lens opacities, or cataracts, also has increased markedly. These cataracts are similar to those reported in cases where individuals have experienced an overexposure to X-rays or gamma radiation. Fast neutrons are generally regarded as the primary source of this disease. It is suspected that cataracts of the type observed are caused by exposure to radiation dosages of 300 rems or more. Although firm data are not available, extrapolations of observed sample populations suggest that between 12 and 15 percent of the population, or ten million persons, have or will develop radiation-induced cataracts. It is not known at this time what percentage will require surgical treatment.
1.3 SKIN DISEASES
Skin diseases, in addition to the neoplasms described above, are largely related to radiation burns, usually caused by beta particles. Skin diseases caused by fallout can be from beta and/or gamma radiation.
Diseases of this sort range from sensations of “burning” to skin discoloration, lesions, ulcers, formation of keloids, or overgrowths of scar tissue, epilation or baldness, and atrophied limbs or whole portions of body surfaces.
Again, although hard data are not available, statistical projections based on observed samples suggest that some 75 million persons are or can be expected to be infected with varying degrees of skin diseases.
It is important to note that the substantial areas of the United States still designated Dead, Red, or Orange Zones for their varying radiation levels almost certainly guarantee a continuing population of afflicted individuals. Those populations located adjacent to radioactive zones come into contact regularly with objects or contaminants of one kind or another that either engender first-time exposures or form part of the cumulative exposure so frequently reported by local and regional medical centers. Radioactive foodstuffs are a continuing source of contamination, as are objects “looted” from restricted or forbidden areas. The greatest single source of “new” radiation, however, is that dropped by atmospheric fallout. Fission products such as cesium 137 (half-life of 30.5 years), strontium 90 (half-life of 27.7 years), and carbon 14 (half-life of 5,760 years) are perhaps the most important contributors to long-term radioactive exposures. Their effect upon skin diseases is more ascertainable; their effects on internal systems are unknown and therefore merit close medical study.
1.4 GENETIC ALTERATIONS
It is well documented that exposure to radiation in measurable amounts causes changes in the hereditary components of reproductive cells. Observations of nuclear industry workers, as well as of the victims of World War II atomic bombings, confirm these effects in future generations. However, none of these prewar populations were exposed to such high and continuing levels of radiation as have been the populations of the United States and the Soviet Union. Genetic mutations have been noted in both countries and in adjacent countries where radioactivity is present through fallout in abnormal counts.
The process of genetic alteration is very complex and beyond the scope of this report. Full implications of genetic changes are not known and will not be known for multiple generations, although some ten million people in the United
States are expected to be affected during the next 25–35 years. The following observations, however, serve to illustrate the extreme changes that have already occurred. Until extensive studies are completed, it is impossible to differentiate between those genetic changes caused by minor radiation exposures (0 to 250 rems, for example) and changes caused by higher levels of exposure (250 to 500 rems). Also, it is presently impossible to understand the differing effects of radiation absorbed all at once or cumulatively, in terms of resultant generatic alterations.
In summary, then, the following genetic trends have been observed in individuals exposed to varying levels of radiation:
• increased rates of sterility of 65 percent
• increased rates of abortions caused by chromosomal damage of 27 percent
• increased rates of stillbirths to 35 out of every 100 births
• increased rates of children born with physical handicaps of 57 percent
• specific increase of 32 percent in frequency of children born with varying levels of mental retardation
• increased rate of 28 percent in infant deaths
• increased rates of 25–30 percent of chronic susceptibility to disease in young children born after Warday, especially to respiratory and cardiac diseases
1.5 NONSPECIFIC SCLEROSING SYNDROME
While not necessarily induced by radiation exposure, Nonspecific Sclerosing Disease, or NSD, is noted more frequently in individuals, and in populations as a whole, that have been exposed to radioactivity, especially in populations adjacent to contaminated areas. Early symptoms include parched skin, mostly on the chest or abdomen, and the development of lumpy swellings over the surface of the body. Lack of appetite or anorexia follows, often complicated by difficulty in breathing.
Eventually there is a collapse of the internal organs. Very little is known about NSD. The origin of the disease and its etiology are little understood. It is perhaps trauma-related, although individuals almost always have had exposure to radiation above 100 rems. There appears to be no treatment at this time, and the fatality rate varies between 70 and 100 percent among those who contract it.
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