It’s too bad there are so many live particles still around the North Central States. I wish we could have seen the Dakotas. A trainman put it very vividly when I asked to be ticketed to Rapid City or Minot. He consulted his timetable, then looked up at me.
“Them places are gone,” he said.
Documents on the National Condition
He stood upon that fateful ground,
Cast his lethargic eye around,
And said beneath his breath:
Whatever happens,
We have got
The Maxim gun
And they do not.
—Hillaire Belloc, “The Modern Traveller”
GENTLY, FROM ABOVE
Before the war, fallout was commonly thought of as a semipermanent devastation that would at the very least doom us to death in a matter of days or weeks.
It didn’t turn out that way. It was more subtle, and it was worse. Most of us have never experienced fallout directly, at least not in what we now think of as significant quantities. Like so many of the effects of Warday, by itself fallout was for the most part survivable. But when you combined it with the economic dislocations that started with the EMP burst, you had a prescription for disaster in the farm belt, a disaster from which we have by no means recovered.
The famine came about because of the negative synergy of fallout that contaminated stored grains and cropland in late ’88 and ’89, and the economic chaos that led to the breakdown of the system of farm subsidy and capitalization.
A further synergistic effect occurred when the Cincinnati Flu broke out. It was a rough flu, but it would have been tenth-page news in 1985. Because we were already weak from malnutrition, and low-level radiation caused some immune-response suppression in many of us, the flu cut through the American population like a scythe.
So, for most of us, the drift from the sky has meant hunger and influenza, not the wasting of radiation sickness. How delighted I would have been before the war to find out that direct fallout wasn’t a very serious threat. My own war fantasies often took the form of desperate escapes from the blowing dust.
Funny, that it was so much more benign than we thought, and so much more lethal, both at the same time.
* * *
DECLASSIFIED 5/16/93
SUMMARY REPORT ON EARLY DOMESTIC FALLOUT
JANUARY 5, 1989
EMERGENCY TASK FORCE ON DOMESTIC FALLOUT
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
INTRODUCTION
The Emergency Task Force on Domestic Fallout was created on December 15, 1988, as an interdepartmental unit to gather, assess, and monitor the radioactive fallout produced by the October 28, 1988, Soviet surprise attack against the United States. Data are presently being collected by field-based units within the Department, as well as from military and local government sources. This report is concerned only with the early fallout produced by the October attack, that is, the fallout produced and deposited within the first few days after the attack.
As a result of the Soviet attack, many monitoring facilities in the attack zones were either destroyed or disabled. Manned ground monitoring stations have been established on an emergency basis near bombed zones where human safety could be assured. Extensive remote/robot stations have been placed by helicopter or air-dropped into highly radioactive areas.
The purpose of this network has been to chart the extent and course of atmospheric fallout. A list of active major data collection stations appears in Attachment One.
For background purposes, each attack zone is briefly described in terms of target nature, weapon yield, etc. An abbreviated description of the causes and nature of radioactive fallout appears in Attachment Two.
This is a summary report only. Full details, as they are presently available, appear in other DOE documentation.
PARAMETERS
Radioactive fallout is an aftereffect of a nuclear detonation. Its nature, intensity, and range are results of weapon type (fission, fusion, or mixture), burst height (ground- or airburst), yield of weapon (usually calculated in megatons), and wind and other meteorological conditions. Brief coverage of these variables is presented in this report.
GENERALIZED OBSERVATIONS
For comparison purposes, the October 1988 Soviet strike may be considered two attacks: one against U.S. urban centers and another against underground missile installations. As a consequence, the Soviets employed different attack strategies, which in turn produced different fallout patterns.
The attacks against urban centers utilized air and ground detonations, which resulted in both local fallout and broad distribution through the upper atmosphere. The attacks against missile silos produced intense ground-level radiation and severe long-range fallout. In both attacks, however, the multiplicity of warheads combined to produce aggravated fallout conditions.
The nature and extent of the attack and the prevailing winds produced in each case a unique fallout distribution. Some generalized, or averaged, comparisons can be drawn, however. In the case of the attacks on urban centers, it can be estimated that the following unit-time fallout conditions occurred similarly for all three attacks:
DOWNWIND DISTANCE FROM GROUND ZERO DOSE RATE IN ROENTGENS/HOUR
50 MILES 1600 R/HR
100 MILES 360 R/HR
200 MILES 125 R/HR
300 MILES 55 R/HR
400 MILES 20 R/HR
500 MILES 6 R/HR
At the end of the first week, it is estimated that the dose rate for these distances was as follows:
50 MILES 3400 R/HR
100 MILES 2700 R/HR
200 MILES 405 R/HR
300 MILES 144 R/HR
400 MILES 42 R/HR
500 MILES 12 R/HR
In the case of the ground attack on missile silos, the following conditions are estimated:
DOWNWIND DISTANCE FROM GROUND ZERO DOSE RATE IN ROENTGENS/HOUR
50 MILES 1400 R/HR
100 MILES 320 R/HR
200 MILES 75 R/HR
300 MILES 30 R/HR
400 MILES 8 R/HR
500 MILES 1.2 R/HR
Dosage rates for the end of the first week are estimated to have been as follows:
50 MILES 2200 R/HR
100 MILES 270 R/HR
200 MILES 68 R/HR
300 MILES 16 R/HR
400 MILES 3.2 R/HR
500 MILES .8 R/HR
These are averaged estimates only, which have been scaled according to previously known fallout characteristics and limited current data. Complete analysis will not be available for some time, although local government and military authorities have been advised about fallout hazards and subsequent medical/health consequences.
REVIEW OF RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT CONDITIONS
A brief summary of fallout conditions and patterns is presented in the following target-by-target descriptions:
1. NEW YORK CITY—LONG ISLAND AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: Urban center.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 9–10-megaton (MT) range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Three land targets, with some evidence of several other weapons that detonated at sea.
BURST TYPE: Airburst and groundburst.
SPECIAL FEATURES: High concentration of fission elements suggests “dirty weapon” type designed to increase fallout intensity of groundburst.
FALLOUT PATTERN: There was a frontal system active in the New York City area on this date, developing winds from a WNW direction at 10–12 knots. As a consequence, little upwind fallout occurred in upper New York—Connecticut area; most downwind fallout was seaward, with considerable centralized fallout in Staten Island, Brooklyn, Queens, and western Long Island areas.
2. WASHINGTON, D.C. AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: Urban area.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 9–10 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Six warheads with possible unknown number of other
nondetonating weapons.
BURST TYPE: Airburst and groundburst.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Same as 1 above.
FALLOUT PATTERN: Prevailing winds created a fallout pattern that was generally easterly with some deflection SSE. Because of Washington’s unique location, most fallout was into Maryland, and secondarily into Delaware and western New Jersey.
3. SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: Urban area.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 9–10 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Three.
BURST TYPE: Airburst and groundburst.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Same as 1 above.
FALLOUT PATTERN: A frontal system was developing winds of 10–15 knots in a SE direction. Fallout was into South and East Texas, including the Houston area.
4. GREAT FALLS, MONTANA AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: U.S. Minuteman missile fields.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 1–2 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Unknown, but estimated at 25+.
BURST TYPE: Groundburst for maximum silo destruction. Some airburst detonations.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Intense surface radiation, with moderate to severe atmospheric fallout downwind.
FALLOUT PATTERN: Winds for late October were SE. Because of the attack nature, initial radioactivity was widespread over a large area. Radiation extended to Wyoming and South Dakota.
5. GRAND FORKS, NORTH DAKOTA AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: U.S. Minuteman missile fields.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 1–2 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Unknown, but estimated at 25+.
BURST TYPE: Groundburst for maximum silo destruction. Some airburst detonations.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Same as 4 above.
FALLOUT PATTERN: Winds were SE, hence fallout pattern developed over Minnesota, with some low-level fallout in Wisconsin.
6. MINOT, NORTH DAKOTA AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: U.S. Minuteman missile fields.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 1–2 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Unknown, but estimated at 45+.
BURST TYPE: Groundburst for maximum depth destruction. Some airburst detonations.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Same as 4 above.
FALLOUT PATTERN: Winds were SSE-S for attack date. Early fallout was concentrated in N. Dakota, with some fallout in S. Dakota and minor fallout in Iowa.
7. RAPID CITY, SOUTH DAKOTA AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: U.S. Minuteman missile fields.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 1–2 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Unknown, but estimated at 35+.
BURST TYPE: Groundburst for maximum depth destruction. Some airburst detonations.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Same as 4 above.
FALLOUT PATTERN: Winds were SSE. Fallout line was largely into S. Dakota and Nebraska, with development into Iowa and Missouri.
8. CHEYENNE, WYOMING AREA
NATURE OF TARGET: U.S. Minuteman and MX missile fields.
TYPE/YIELD OF SOVIET WEAPON: Missile-delivered thermonuclear warhead in 1–2 MT range.
NUMBER OF WARHEADS DELIVERED: Unknown but estimated at 35+.
BURST TYPE: Groundburst for maximum depth destruction. Some airburst detonations.
SPECIAL FEATURES: Same as 4 above.
FALLOUT PATTERN: Winds were SSE. Primary fallout occurred in Wyoming, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska, with some development Into southeastern Missouri.
ATTACHMENT ONE
LIST OF MAJOR FALLOUT DATA COLLECTION CENTERS
(Manned and Remote)
MONTANA
Billings 45D 48M North / 108D 32M West
Glasgow 48D 13M North / 106D 37M West
Great Falls 47D 29M North / 111D 22M West
Havre 48D 33M North / 109D 46M West
Helena 46D 36M North / 112D 00M West
Kalispell 48D 18M North / 114S 16M West
Miles City 46D 26M North / 105D 52M West
Missoula 46D 55M North / 114D 05M West
NEW YORK
Central Park/Manhattan 40D 47M North / 78D 58M West
Kennedy Airport 40D 39M North / 73D 47M West
La Guardia Airport 40D 46M North / 73D 54M West
NORTH DAKOTA
Bismarck 46D 46M North / 100D 45M West
Fargo 46D 54M North / 96D 46M West
Williston 48D 11M North / 103D 38M West
SOUTH DAKOTA
Aberdeen 45D 27M North / 98D 26M West
Huron 44D 23M North / 98D 13M West
Rapid City 44D 03M North / 104D 04M West
Sioux Falls 43D 34M North / 96D 44M West
TEXAS
Austin 30D 18M North / 97D 42M West
Corpus Christi 27D 46M North / 97D 30M West
Houston 29D 58M North / 95D 21M West
San Antonio 29D 32M North / 98D 28M West
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Dulles Airport 38D 57M North / 77D 27M West
National Airport 38D 51M North / 77D 02M West
WYOMING
Casper 42D 55M North / 106D 28M West
Cheyenne 41D 09M North / 104D 49M West
Lander 42D 49M North / 108D 44M West
Sheridan 44D 46M North / 106D 58M West
ATTACHMENT TWO
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT
Radioactive fallout is created by thermonuclear weapons as a result of residual radiation, that is, radiation that occurs or is induced in particulate matter approximately one minute after detonation. In thermonuclear weapons especially, large numbers of high-energy neutrons are produced, which interact with elements in the air and on the ground; these elements then become radioactive and in turn emit beta and gamma radiation.
Fallout may be considered of two kinds: early and delayed. Early fallout occurs within 24 hours and is the most severe. Fallout of this type produces contamination and presents a biologic hazard. Delayed fallout produces very fine particles of radiated material that are spread in the atmosphere. The hazard with delayed fallout is long term, especially because of elements with very long half-lives, such as cesium 137 and strontium 90.
Airbursts are more likely to produce delayed fallout because of the height of detonation. Surface bursts, conversely, produce fallout that is more localized but more intense.
Radioactive particles generally vary in size from 1 micron to several millimeters. The larger particles tend to fall within 24 hours and are the most radioactive. Between 50 and 70 percent of total radioactivity is produced as early fallout.
Weapons can be made to produce larger amounts of radioactive elements, hence the term “dirty weapons.” This is done by using all-fission warheads or by enhancing thermonuclear weapons with additional fission steps, in addition, thermonuclear weapons can be wrapped in tungsten or cobalt casings.
Fallout is carried by winds and is affected by altitude, moisture content of air, etc. A 10 MT surface weapon, for example, can, on detonation, rise to a height of 80000 feet, thus introducing radioactive particles into airstreams that circle the earth. More localized fallout is subject to geographical contour, nature of burst, and other factors that make statistical predictability unreliable.
The Rising of the Land
Just before a great storm is born in the plains, there often comes a time of perfect clarity. The sky becomes sharp, and the grasstops hang motionless.
Jim and I have been looking out the window of the train a long time. The air is a deep, clear blue all the way down to the northern horizon. But the horizon itself is the color of baked clay. It is odd, something you look at very carefully. Something that makes you wonder.
We are between Topeka and Kansas City. The crop is sparse, and there are many empty fields.
All through ’88 and ’89, p
eople left. One member of a family might get sick with some radiation-related illness or die of the flu and they would all leave, abandoning their acres to nature. But wheat and corn need tending. Left to themselves, these highly bred species do not go wild, they die. When the stalks rot or blow away, the raw dirt is exposed.
The wind has danced and eddied through the Midwest for years now, blowing the active particles about, depositing them as far south as Texas and as far east as Ohio.
It is not the kind of radiation that devastates bodies in hours—that was gone with the fireballs. It is the more insidious type that lodges in the ground or blows into the silos and the corn-cribs, and stays there.
“What’s going on?” Jim asks.
At first I don’t understand why. Then I realize the train has picked up speed. To reduce wear on equipment, Amtrak doesn’t run much over fifty or sixty, but this train is doing seventy, maybe more.
Two rows ahead, a woman rises half out of her seat, shrinking away from the window.
I am shocked when I follow her eyes to the horizon. A vast black wall has risen there like some bloated mountain range, its topmost peaks streaming hazy fingers toward us across the sky.
People shout, their pale, frightened faces pressing the glass.
The train sways, its horn sounding and sounding, and now I understand: we’re running for shelter. If this dust storm stops us, we will be exposed to the full effect of whatever radiation it bears. A railroad car is little protection.
I feel bitter against myself. How dare I leave my wife and son to take risks like this! My own motives are inscrutable to me.
The light changes. Now the sun is being covered. The clear, still air around the train turns deep red. I can see the round orb of the sun behind a billowing cloud.
Then something incredible happens: in an instant it gets pitch dark. This is not the gloom of a storm or the darkness of night. It is the impossible, thick black of a cave.
Warday Page 22