5. Thanks to features like these: Comments from Oliver Wyman consumer interviews.
6. Gaillard took a deep breath and declared: Enrollment numbers cited in Luca D. Majer, “Clooney’s Clones,” Foodservice.com, April 2, 2010.
7. In a survey of French Nespresso customers: Oliver Wyman consumer interviews.
5. TRAJECTORY
1. Novelist and social critic Aldous Huxley: Quotation from Island (New York: Harper Perennial, 2009), chapter 9.
2. Netflix Prize: Dan Frommer, “No Winner Yet in Netflix $1 Million Coding Contest,” Silicon Valley Insider, December 10, 2008; Jordan Ellenberg, “This Psychologist Might Outsmart the Math Brains Competing for the Netflix Prize,” Wired, February 25, 2008; Steve Lohr, “A $1 Million Research Bargain for Netflix, and Maybe a Model for Others,” New York Times, September 22, 2009; Farhad Manjoo, “The Netflix Prize Was Brilliant,” Slate, September 22, 2009; “Netflix Prize: Top Eight Facts,” Telegraph.co.uk, September 22, 2009; Eliot Van Buskirk, “How the Netflix Prize Was Won,” Wired.com, September 22, 2009; Stephen Baker, “Netflix Isn’t Done Mining Consumer Data,” MSNBC.com, September 22, 2009; Ian Paul, “Netflix Prize 2: What You Need to Know,” Network World, September 23, 2009; Michael V. Copeland, “Tapping Tech’s Beautiful Minds,” Fortune, October 12, 2009.
3. Teach For America: Author interviews with TFA team members Amanda Craft (July 8, 2010), Elissa Clapp (August 13, 2010), Lauren LeVeen (February 16, 2011), and Steven Farr (April 1, 2011), and with teaching corps members Yoona Kim and David Parker-Longmaid (February 15, 2011). Other sources: Wendy Kopp, One Day, All Children … (New York: PublicAffairs, 2001); Adam Bryant, “Charisma? To Her, It’s Overrated,” New York Times, July 5, 2009; Steven Farr, Teaching as Leadership: The Highly Effective Teacher’s Guide to Closing the Achievement Gap (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2010); “Eight Questions for Wendy Kopp,” Economist, April 3, 2010; Brendan Lowe, “Mind the Gap,” Good, July 2, 2010; Naomi Schaefer Riley, “What They’re Doing After Harvard,” Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2010; Michael Winerip, “A Chosen Few Are Teaching for America,” New York Times, July 11, 2010; Dana Goldstein, “Does Teach For America Work?” Daily Beast, January 25, 2011; Teach For America website, http://www.teachforamerica.org/.
4. Journalist Amanda Ripley has tracked TFA’s: Amanda Ripley, “What Makes a Great Teacher?” Atlantic, January/February 2010.
5. Pret A Manger: Author interview with Pret store manager Tracy Gingell (July 16, 2010). Other sources: Jamie Doward, “Between a Big Mac and a Hard Place,” Guardian, February 4, 2001; Christian Broughton, “Bread Winners,” Independent, February 29, 2004; Todd Benjamin, “Julian Metcalfe: A Hunger for Success,” CNN, November 28, 2005, http://www.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/11/25/boardroom.metcalfe/; Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop, “Spotlight: Julian Metcalfe, Founder of Pret A Manger,” International Herald Tribune, January 26, 2007; Neil Gerrard, “The Rise of the Healthy Fast-Casual Chains,” Caterersearch.com, September 2, 2010, http://www.caterersearch.com/Articles/2010/09/02/334899/the-rise-of-the-healthy-fast-casual-chains.htm; Rebecca Smithers, “Pret A Manger Chief Is Stacking Up Healthy Profits in Lean Times,” Guardian, October 8, 2010.
6. So in June 2009, after Julian Metcalfe saw: Christopher Leake, “End of the Line for the Pret Tuna Sandwich,” Mail Online, June 6, 2009.
7. In every Pret store you’ll find a box with cards: Coachbarrow (blog), June 14, 2010, http://www.coachbarrow.com/blog/2010/06/14/pret-a-manger-2/.
8. Here’s how one critic compared Pret: Mary Portas, “Shop! Mary Portas at Pret A Manger and Eat,” Telegraph, May 13, 2010.
9. In August 2009, Metcalfe received a tongue-in-cheek letter: See Jon Swaine, “Man Invoices Pret A Manger and EAT for Time Spent Waiting in Shops,” Telegraph, August 27, 2009.
6. VARIATION
1. Orchestra “churn project”: Multiple author interviews with Martin Kon, director of pro bono research project conducted by Oliver Wyman for leading U.S. orchestras, 2007. Author interviews with Partha Bose (January 21, 2010) and Kim Noltemy (February 10, 2010) of Boston Symphony Orchestra, and with Jesse Rosen, League of American Orchestras (February 1, 2010). Other sources: Maureen Dezell and Geoff Edgers, “They Can Also Conduct Business: It’s a Bad Time for American Orchestras but BSO Inc. Is Thriving,” Boston Globe, August 10, 2003; Alan S. Brown and John Bare, “Bridging the Gap: Orchestras and Classical Music Listeners,” John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, June 2003; Martin Kon, “Custom Churn: Stop It Before It Starts,” Mercer Management Journal 17, June 2004; Ed Cambron, “Creating an Environment for Exploration,” Engaging Art (blog), June 19, 2007, http://www.artsjournal.com/league/2007/06/
creating_an_environment_for_ex.html; “Audience Growth Initiative: Summary,” Oliver Wyman website, 2009, http://www.oliverwyman.com/ow/9673.htm; “Opening to a Packed House,” Oliver Wyman website, 2009, http://www.oliverwyman.com/ow/9034.htm; Rebecca Winzenried, “Into Thin Air,” Symphony, January–February 2009; Rebecca Winzenried, “The Price Is Right,” Symphony, January–February 2010.
2. Seattle Opera: Author interviews with team members Jonathan Dean, Seneca Garber, Rebecca Chawgo, and Rian Kochel (February 4, 2010), and with Vira Slywotzky (January 25, 2010). Also see Seattle Opera website, http://www.seattleopera.org/.
3. And Jenkins’s passion makes him an untiring salesman: Deanna Duff, “Most Influential: Speight Jenkins,” Seattle Magazine, November 2010, online at http://www.seattlemag.com/article/most-influential-speight-jenkins-9.
4. “Corner store” experiences: Author interviews with Marc Najarian, Dale Szczeblowski, Carol Stoltz, Jane Dawson, and Joe Skenderian.
5. Eurostar: Author interview (April 12, 2011) with Richard Brown, chairman of Eurostar. Information from Oliver Wyman analysis. Other sources: Paul Mungo, “Why Eurostar Has Failed to Make the Grade,” Daily Mail, August 19, 2002; Andrew Davidson, “The Friendly Controller,” Sunday Times (London), January 11, 2004; Michael Harrison, “Richard Brown, Chief Executive of Eurostar,” Independent, April 16, 2005; Katie Silvester, “Richard Brown, Chief Executive of Eurostar,” Rail Professional, February 2008; Andrew Cave, “Eurostar Feeding on Hunger for Travel,” Telegraph, April 12, 2009; Dan Milmo, “Eurostar Faces Rivals for Cross-Channel Route,” Guardian, June 8, 2009; Karl West, “Rail Chief Has the Inside Track on His Rivals,” Daily Mail, July 23, 2009; Alex Carlisle, “Richard Brown Eurostar’s Debyshire Resident Chief Executive,” Derbyshire Life, March 12, 2010.
6. British paranoia on this theme actually persisted: Story cited in Robert Townsend, Up the Organization (Greenwich, CT: Fawcett Publication, 1970), p. 75.
7. Journalist Andrew Martin experienced the first celebratory run: Andrew Martin, “St Pancras Is a Start, But It Takes More to Stop Us Flying,” Independent, November 18, 2007.
7. LAUNCH: THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF DEMAND
1. Honda Insight: “Long-Term Test: 2000 Honda Insight,” Edmunds Inside Line, January 1, 1999, http://www.insideline.com/honda/insight/2000/long-term-test-2000-honda-insight.html#article_pagination_top_0; Phil Patton, “Once Frumpy, Green Cars Start Showing Some Flash,” New York Times, July 15, 2007.
2. Tesco: Mark Ritson, “Tesco Finds US Not So Easy,” Marketing, March 4, 2009; George MacDonald, “Don’t Write Off Fresh & Easy,” Retail Week, February 27, 2009; William Kay, “Tesco Admits: We Got It Wrong in US,” Sunday Times (London), February 22, 2009; Kerry Capell, “Tesco: ‘Wal-Mart’s Worst Nightmare,’ ” BusinessWeek, December 30, 2008.
3. Actual failure statistics for project launches are hard to verify: Probabilities of project success drawn from the following sources: Hollywood movie: Oliver Wyman analysis based on data from MPAA 2003 Statistics, MGM 2003 Operating Results, and http://www.factbook.net/wbglobal_rev.htm. Corporate mergers and acquisitions: Investment Dealers’ Digest, November 24, 2003, and Paul Mallette, “The Acquisition Process Map: Blueprint for a Successful Deal,” Southern Business Review, Spring 2003. Information technology: Nicholas G. Carr, Does IT Matter? (Boston: Harvard Business School Pres
s, 2004). Venture capital: Nadim F. Matta and Ronald N. Ashkenas, “Why Good Projects Fail Anyway,” Harvard Business Review, September 2003. Food: John L. Stanton, “Most Pioneers Got Killed, but Some Got Rich,” Food Processing, July, 2003. Pharmaceuticals: Pharmaceutical Industry Profile, Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, 2004.
4. In their 2003 article: Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions,” Harvard Business Review, July 2003.
5. One technique that can be helpful: See Gary Klein, “Performing a Project Premortem,” Harvard Business Review, September 2007.
6. Toyota Prius: Author interview with Toyota executive Takeshi Uchiyamada (September 26, 2006). Other sources: James B. Treece, “Prius Got Top Support,” Automotive News, February 23, 1998; Ikujiro Nonaka and Noboru Konna, “The Concept of ‘Ba’: Building a Foundation for Knowledge Creation,” California Management Review, Spring 1998; Jeffrey K. Liker, The Toyota Way: 14 Management Principles from the World’s Greatest Manufacturer (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003); Peter Fairley, “Hybrids’ Rising Sun,” MIT Technology Review, April 1, 2004; James Mackintosh, “Cost Cuts Are Key to Success of the Prius,” Financial Times, June 16, 2005, p. 28; Chester Dawson, “Why Hybrids ‘Are Here to Stay,’ ” BusinessWeek Online, June 20, 2005, http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine.content/05_25/
b3938029.htm?chan=gl; Chester Dawson, “Takehisa Yaegashi: Proud Papa of the Prius,” BusinessWeek, June 20, 2005; David Welch, “What Makes a Hybrid Hot,” BusinessWeek, November 14, 2005; Alex Taylor III, “The Birth of the Prius,” Fortune, February 24, 2006.
7. Developing his first movie on a stingy budget: See Pauline Kael, “Raising Kane,” in The Citizen Kane Book (Boston: Atlantic Monthly Press, 1971), pp. 53–54.
8. At Lotus in the early 1990s, June Rokoff: Glenn Rifkin, “Profile: The ‘Iron Lady’ Keeping Lotus on Track,” New York Times, January 23, 1994.
9. The day after the tragic launchpad fire in January 1967: See Gene Kranz, Failure Is Not an Option: Mission Control from Mercury to Apollo 13 and Beyond (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000).
8. PORTFOLIO: “NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING”
1. Screenwriter William Goldman, after decades observing: William Goldman, Adventures in the Screen Trade: A Personal View of Hollywood and Screenwriting (New York: Warner Books, 1983).
2. Pixar: Author interview with former Pixar team member Lizzi Weinberg (November 3, 2010). Other source: Karen Paik, To Infinity and Beyond! The Story of Pixar Animation Studios (San Francisco: Chronicle Books, 2007).
3. Another Pixar-esque term for the process: Alex Ben Block, “Animator John Lasseter Making Disney a Top Draw,” Hollywood Reporter, October 23, 2008.
4. Perhaps John Lasseter’s enthusiasm: Block, op. cit.
5. By practicing these principles: Box office data in Pixar blockbuster chart from http://www.boxofficemojo.com.
6. Merck: Roy Vagelos and Louis Galambos, Medicine, Science, and Merck (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004); Fran Hawthorne, The Merck Druggernaut: The Inside Story of a Pharmaceutical Giant (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2005); Gordon Bock, “Merck’s Medicine Man: Pindaros Roy Vagelos,” Time, February 22, 1988; Joseph Weber, “Merck Needs More Gold from the White Coats,” BusinessWeek, March 18, 1991; “Merck Provides Update on R&D Pipeline; Sets 2010 Targets,” IHS Global Insight, December 12, 2007, online at http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail11208.htm.
7. As a result of Vagelos’s innovative: Data in Merck blockbuster chart from J. Rubin and P. A. Brooke, “Merck: Merck Quarterly Sales Model, 1993–2004E,” New York: Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, August 7, 1998, and October 22, 1999.
8. Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers: Roger Taylor, “Shaping the Future with Nothing but Ideas,” Financial Times, July 19, 1999; Rodes Fishburne and Michael S. Malone, “Founding Funders: Two Venerable VCs Talk About Then and Now,” Forbes ASAP, May 29, 2000; Katherine Campbell, “Venture Capital: Entry Is by Invitation Only,” Financial Times, September 13, 2000; Laura Rich, “Investment Engines in Search of Their Next Moves,” New York Times, May 3, 2004; “Q&A with Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers,” Silicon Beat, San Jose Mercury News, November 13, 2004, http://www.siliconbeat.com/entries/2004/11/13/
qa_with_kleiner_perkins_caufield_byers.html; Jim Carlton, “Kleiner’s Green Investment Machine,” Wall Street Journal, December 14, 2006; Jon Gertner, “Capitalism to the Rescue,” New York Times Magazine, October 5, 2008.
9. In this strange parallel universe: List of companies in Kleiner Perkins blockbuster chart from http://www.kpcb.com.
10. A magazine profile once described Doerr: Michael S. Malone, “John Doerr’s Startup Manual,” Fast Company, February 28, 1997, online at http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/07/082doerr.html.
11. Then there’s Bill Joy, a famous whiz kid: Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers (New York: Little, Brown, 2008), chapter 2.
9. THE BIGGEST SPARK: SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY AND THE FUTURE OF DEMAND
1. In 2008, the National Academy of Engineering: “Introduction to the Grand Challenges for Engineering,” National Academy of Engineering website, http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/cms/8996/9221.aspx.
2. Transistor: Michael Riordan and Lillian Hoddeson, Crystal Fire: The Invention of the Transistor and Birth of the Information Age (New York: Norton, 1998).
3. Nokia 1100: Sascha Segan, “Nokia 1100” (review), Pcmag.com, March 31, 2006, http://www.pcmag.com/print_article2/0,1217,a%253D174758,00.asp; Kevin Sullivan, “For India’s Traditional Fishermen, Cell Phones Deliver a Sea Change,” Washington Post, October 15, 2006; Jack Ewing, “How Nokia Users Drive Innovation,” BusinessWeek, April 30, 2008; Sanjay Gandhi, Surabhi Mittal, and Gaurav Tripathi, “The Impact of Mobiles on Agricultural Productivity,” Moving the Debate Forward, Policy Paper Series, Vodafone Group, January 2009; Eric Bellman, “Rural India Snaps Up Mobile Phones,” Wall Street Journal, February 9, 2009; “OPK, Indiana Jones and 4.6 Billion Other People,” Nokia Coversations (corporate blog), January 8, 2010, http://conversations.nokia.com/2010/01/08/opk-indiana-jones-and-4-6-billion-other-people/.
4. Consider Bell Labs, for example: “Bell Labs History,” Alcatel-Lucent website, http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/wps/portal/BellLabs/History; Linda A. Johnson, “Bell Labs’ History of Inventions,” USA Today, December 1, 2006, http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2006-12-01-bell-research_x.htm.
5. RCA Laboratories: Kenyan Kilbon, Pioneering in Electronics: A Short History of the Origins and Growth of RCA Laboratories, Radio Corporation of America, 1919 to 1964, David Sarnoff Library, http://www.davidsarnoff.org/kil.html; Ross Basset, To the Digital Age: Research Labs, Start-up Companies, and the Rise of MOS Technology (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002).
6. DARPA: Steven LeVine, “Can the Military Find the Answer to Alternative Energy?” BusinessWeek, July 23, 2009; Duncan Graham-Rowe, “Fifty Years of DARPA: A Surprising History,” New Scientist, May 15, 2009; John Markoff, “Pentagon Redirects Its Research Dollars,” New York Times, April 2, 2005.
7. Xerox PARC: Michael A. Hiltzik, Dealers of Lightning: Xerox PARC and the Dawn of the Computer Age (New York: HarperCollins, 1999); Brian Bakker, “The Importance of PARC,” Brainstorm, February 5, 2009; Peter Dizikes, “Xerox PARC: On the Money Trail,” ABC News, November 11, 2002, online at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=86872&page=1; Xerox PARC Fact Sheet, online at http://www.parc.com/content/newsroom/factsheet_parc.pdf; Palo Alto Research Center website, http://www.parc.com.
8. Honda Research Institute: “All Too Human: Honda’s Walking, Talking Robot, ASIMO, Leads Automaker into Uncharted Territory,” Automotive News, January 28, 2002; “Art and Science of Crash Survival,” Globe and Mail, October 25, 2005; “Inside Honda’s Brain,” Forbes, March 7, 2008; “Honda’s New CEO Is Also Chief Innovator,” BusinessWeek, July 27, 2009; “Researchers Given Freedom to Explore,” Nikkei Weekly, September 16, 2003; “Pragmatic Path to Globalization; Honda’s Maverick Culture,” Nikkei Report, April 2, 2009; �
�Interview with Masato Hirose—‘Falling Down, Getting Up, and Walking On,’ ” TechOn, 2001; “Honda R&D Facility to Study Future Auto Power Systems,” Nikkei Report, January 14, 2004; “Trumpets vs. Crumpets in a Robot Duel,” New York Times, March 9, 2008.
9. MIT Media Lab: Author interviews (March 2, 2010) with Frank Moss, Tanya Giovacchini, John Moore, Ryan C. C. Chin, Alex “Sandy” Pentland, Deb Roy, Tod Machover, and Cynthia Breazeal. Other sources: Media Lab 25th Anniversary celebration, October 15, 2010; MIT Media Lab website, http://www.media.mit.edu.
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