Why do some people insist on believing that a patch of Nevada desert is some kind of a spaceport or warehouse for dead aliens? Presumably the intense secrecy and security around Area 51 encourage these ideas. But I fail to see a big mystery here. Why wouldn't there be tight security? This is where the military prepares for wars that might have to be fought twenty, thirty, or fifty years from now. Pushing aviation engineering to the limits and then trying to reach beyond them is expected, and keeping new technologies a secret can be the difference between victory and defeat in war. As far as reports of seeing weird and unidentified flying objects around Area 51, isn't that to be expected as well? It's a secret base for developing secret technology and aircraft. If anyone could stroll around Area 51 anytime they wanted and if no weird shapes or lights were ever spotted in the southern Nevada sky, then I might be suspicious.
It is easy to underestimate just how bizarre top-secret aircraft probably are right now. A lack of imagination makes it more likely for a person to see something they can't make sense of and conclude that it must be otherworldly. Did you know, for example, that there are programs under way in the US right now to develop large unmanned vehicles capable of staying aloft at very high altitudes for five years or more without landing? Some are essentially giant, solar-powered wings like NASA's Helios. There are also huge, secret airships designed to hover close to the edge of space where they can serve as cheap alternates to surveillance satellites. Some of these aircraft don't fit the general public's preconceived notions of what flying machines are supposed to look like. I don't know if these kinds of aircraft are being developed at Area 51 specifically, but they could be.
It is also possible that the rapid rise of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) is contributing to UFO sightings around Area 51 and elsewhere. I was at a conference for future technologies in Chicago a few years ago and was able to see a Global Hawk UAV and talk with a Northrop Grumman representative. I had seen this particular one before in photos and on TV but was surprised by how sleek and futuristic it looked up close. The winged robot seemed to project power and intelligence with its bulbous nose section and aesthetic lines. One detail I have noticed that is common to many UFO reports is that observers claim the light or object moved in ways no airplane ever could. It's important to remember that it's difficult and sometimes impossible to accurately determine distance, direction, and speed when viewing something you can't identify in the sky. This means it is relatively easy to misinterpret the movements of an unknown object. Aside from that, however, could it be that some of these descriptions of radical and “impossible” movements can be attributed to UAVs? UAVs are significantly different from traditional aircraft because with them there is no concern about a human pilot blacking out in the cockpit. UAVs are held back only by engine-to-weight ratio and structural strength. Undoubtedly advanced UAVs will be capable of flying in ways far beyond the limits of crewed military aircraft. It's no stretch to imagine that the latest generation of UAVs, such as the US Air Force's RQ-170 Sentinel and, of course, secret UAVs we don't yet know anything about, might confuse a layperson with their extraordinary maneuvering abilities.
As mentioned in the UFO chapter, many strange sightings around Area 51 might be explained by something as simple as flares, a defensive countermeasure used by many military aircraft. In order to evade incoming missiles that seek a heat source (like a jet engine), many military aircraft, including helicopters, are equipped to fire multiple high-intensity flares at once or in rapid succession in hopes of fooling the missile into chasing a flare instead of the aircraft. Some of these flares fall passively, but many of them spiral away from the aircraft rapidly on their own unique course. It's not difficult to imagine that the possible testing of next-generation countermeasure systems around Area 51 could lead to UFO sightings.
Seth Shostak is the senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, which means he spends most of his waking hours not just thinking in general about the possible existence of intelligent extraterrestrials but thinking of ways in which we might detect them if indeed they are out there somewhere. He is open-minded about UFO claims but feels strongly that speculating about the government hiding aliens from us at Area 51 or anywhere else is a waste of time.
“I think that new and compelling evidence should always be investigated, but I would suggest to the UFO community that, despite more than six decades of claims, there's still no evidence of visitation good enough to stack up in the Smithsonian,” he said. “I think that this circumstance should probably induce a degree of modesty on this subject and not—as all too often happens—an appeal to lack of interest by scientists or hidden evidence. You can't prove that aliens are visiting Earth by pointing to government secrecy. That establishes nothing.”2
The fact is we don't know exactly what is going on at Area 51. But that's the whole point of Area 51. What we can safely assume is that there are cutting-edge aircraft hidden away in hangers there that come out at night and tear up the skies. Considering how bizarre and futuristic-looking some formerly secret aircraft look to most of us today, it's very likely that some experimental aircraft flying in secrecy today would blow our minds if we caught a glimpse of them. This base is no small-time operation. A report in Smithsonian's Air and Space magazine estimated annual expenditures at Area 51 to be more than $30 billion per year. That's almost $100 million per day being spent on new aviation technologies.3 In 2011, an uncrewed US Air Force “plane” that was rocket launched and then reentered the atmosphere, crashed into the Pacific after achieving speeds twenty times the speed of sound. The Falcon Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 is part of a project to develop a bomber that can reach a target anywhere in the world within one hour. They told the public about this one. Just imagine all the aircraft that they don't tell us about. It is confirmed that the US military is sending aircraft into space and returning them. The potential for yet more UFO sightings should be obvious.
William Scott, an aviation reporter, believes that UFO excitement serves as a convenient distraction from the reality of what goes on in Area 51 that the US military and CIA find useful. “The UFO phenomenon is used to protect the base's deepest secrets. I once was advised that if I wanted clues about real-world classified aircraft projects, I should read the supermarket tabloids.…I once asked a Groom [Area 51] test pilot whether tainting classified-aircraft sightings with the UFO stench was ever done intentionally. He smiled and replied: ‘It's worked for fifty years. Why would we change now?’ Without question, black-world operators have become masters of such deception to protect their work. As a result, Groom Lake will likely retain its secrets for a very long time.”4
During the height of the Cold War in the 1950s and 1960s, the CIA estimates that more than half of all reported UFO sightings were caused by flights of American U-2 and SR-71 spy planes.5 More than half. The Cold War has ended, but military spending on new and exotic aircraft certainly has not. The “war on terror” has helped to spark an unprecedented rush to design and build robot spies and warriors for land, sea, and air. In his fascinating book Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century, P. W. Singer points out that the US Air Force now places orders for more UAVs than crewed aircraft. The skies above us are going to be increasingly filled with new and strange flying machines in the coming years. So the next time you see something odd in the sky, or someone tells you about a UFO sighting linked to Area 51, ask yourself if you can be sure it's not reflected light off the belly of a lumbering P-791 hybrid air vehicle,6 an X-47B UAV7 shredding the sky, or maybe even something unknown and unimaginable to the public at this time. If we can't be sure of those possibilities, then we can't justify leaping to the most extraordinary conclusion of all, that it must something from another world.
GO DEEPER…
Burton, Robert A. On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not. New York: St. Martin's Griffin, 2009.
Merlin, Peter W., and Tony Moore. X-Plane Crashes: Exploring Experimental, Rocket Plane & S
pycraft Incidents, Accidents & Crash Sites. North Branch, MN: Specialty Press, 2008.
Patton, Phil. Dreamland: Travels inside the Secret World of Roswell and Area 51. New York: Villard, 1999.
Rich, Ben R. Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years of Lockheed. New York: Back Bay Books, 1996.
Singer, P. W. Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century. New York: Penguin, 2009.
[Two teenagers] were considering killing themselves, because they didn't want to be around when the world ends. Two women in the last two weeks said they were contemplating killing their children and themselves so they wouldn't have to suffer through the end of the world.
—David Morrison, NASA astronomer
If you wait for tomorrow, tomorrow comes. If you do not wait for tomorrow, tomorrow comes.
—West African proverb
The wild-eyed believer is worried because I'm not worried.
“Seriously, this is no joke,” he tells me. “In late 2012, maybe early 2013, the Sun is going to fry the Earth.”
“But how do you know this and NASA doesn't?”
“They know.”
I have had more than a few encounters like that one recently. I have no right to complain, however. I usually seek them out to learn more for this book. But wait, what was I thinking? Why did I bother writing this book anyway? If the world is going to explode, implode, collide, flood, fry, freeze, or vanish on December 21, 2012? What's the point? I should be busy selling my possessions, hugging my children, and eating as much ice cream as possible before doomsday arrives. But, no, here I am writing away as if the world will still be here after that fateful date in 2012. Will there be a world for us on the morning of December 13? To save readers suspense, I checked to see if there is any good evidence or credible experts that support this extraordinary prediction. I also investigated the sources of 2012 apocalypse belief. What I found may terrify you, but I'll give it to you straight anyway, no holding back: While there are no guarantees, all indications are that the world is not going to end any time soon and we are all going to have to continue existing whether we like it or not. Sorry, you still have to pay those bills, save for retirement, and floss.
Although they could never have known it would come to this and shouldn't be blamed, the Maya of Central America and their calendar are the source of 2012 hysteria. Or, perhaps I should say misinterpretations, mistakes, exaggerations, and lies about their calendar are the sources. The Maya calendar is cyclical and resets to year zero every five thousand years or so. That's all there is to it, really. It's like the calendar on your fridge that eventually hits December 31 and ends. What's the big deal? Go buy another calendar and get on with your life. Experts on Maya culture—people who have dedicated their lives to studying Maya culture—disagree with the claim that the Maya predicted the end of the world in 2012.
“There is nothing in the Maya or Aztec or ancient Mesoamerican prophecy to suggest that they prophesied a sudden or major change of any sort in 2012,” explains Mark Van Stone, author of 2012: Science and Prophecy of the Ancient Maya. “The notion of a ‘Great Cycle' coming to an end is completely a modern invention. Maya inscriptions that predict the future consistently show that they expected life to go on pretty much the same forever. At Palenque, for instance, they predicted that people in the year 4772 AD would be celebrating the anniversary of the coronation of their great king Pakal.”1
So here we have the odd situation where a past culture didn't predict a December 21, 2012, doomsday date but millions of people are choosing to believe they did anyway. More to the point, even if the Maya had clearly made this prediction, it still shouldn't cause anyone to worry. After all, how likely is it that a preindustrial culture was able to identify a specific date for a global catastrophe centuries in advance while NASA and all the world's scientists today can't see it coming mere months in advance? As absurd as this belief may be, it's not unique in its lack of a credible origin. This failure to consider and assess the source of extraordinary claims is a widespread problem that reaches far beyond 2012. Many irrational beliefs depend on people failing to question how the source knows what it says it knows. When it comes to the age of the Earth, for example, many people choose to trust the word of a preacher with no science education over the conclusions of professional geologists with doctorates. On some matters of science, millions give more credence to radio talk show hosts and politicians than they do the world's leading scientists. The source of a claim may not prove or disprove anything, but it is often a good starting point for someone who sincerely wants to figure out if something is more or less likely to be true.
The popularity of the 2012 claim is remarkable, even for a species long-obsessed with bizarre and baseless end-of-the-world predictions. In most cases, these predictions are conceived and promoted by organized religious groups. The 2012 doomsday claim sprang from one weird notion about an old Mesoamerican calendar and then snowballed to lure in believers all over the world. It also has joined forces with a long list of paranormal and pseudoscience mainstays, including Nostradamus, astrology, aliens, Atlantis, psychics, reincarnation, and the Bermuda Triangle. It has been surprising, even to me as one who has observed unusual beliefs for many years, to see the connections people have made with 2012. Some say the Maya prophecy even involves Hitler somehow! It was, of course, a no-brainer that Nostradamus would be tied to 2012. Ah, yes, Nostradamus knew centuries ago that 2012 would be doomsday. Yes, it's all so clear in his writings. Of course, after 2012 passes without anything happening Nostradamus's name will be dropped from any further association with the Maya. Then, soon enough, another doomsday prediction or surprise catastrophe will come along. And we will be told that Nostradamus knew all about it centuries ago and warned of us, of course.
Belief in 2012 has been everywhere in recent years, from books to websites to blockbuster movies. It's even in the Bible, according to The Bible Code author Michael Drosnin. He decoded “2012,” “comet” and “Earth annihilated” from a passage in the Bible.2 Of course, it has to be mentioned that Drosnin is the same guy who also found an encoded biblical prediction of a nuclear holocaust that was supposed to have occurred in 2006.3 Silly as all this may seem to some, I think 2012 is worthy of study and should not be forgotten after the date comes and goes without global doom. This is a textbook-worthy demonstration of how a slim scrap of an idea can be inflated with bluster, tied to other hollow claims, and then sweep up millions of imaginative people. If more psychologists, anthropologists, historians, and journalists analyzed these recurring group fantasies and spoke about them more, we might figure out ways to make people less vulnerable to them.
There are many claims about what exactly is supposed to happen on December 21, 2012. One of the more creative ones is the approaching “alien invasion fleet,” an image of which was captured for all to see by a powerful telescope. It turned out to be nothing more than an “image defect on the observation plate,” however.4 In fact, none of the specific claims for how our planet will be destroyed are worth worrying about, at least not if the world's astronomers can be trusted to know anything about planets and space. For example, the popular 2012 claim of “planets aligning” or a “galactic alignment” may sound important, maybe even dangerous, but we can relax, say astronomers. Astrologers and 2012 believers may talk about alignments a lot, but “the reality is that alignments are of no interest to science. They mean nothing,” explains David Morrison, senior scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute.5
Far scarier than the gravitational effect of distant planets aligning is the claim that one mysterious planet is heading directly our way and will cause unimaginable destruction by striking Earth or at least passing close by us. This is not totally crazy because collisions like that do happen in space. In fact, it happened to us once already. Astronomers believe that a Mars-sized planet struck Earth shortly after Earth formed. This probably created the debris that eventually became the Moon. Fortunately, we don't have to worry about thi
s happening again anytime soon because there is no such planet heading our way. Keep in mind: this is coming from the world's astronomers—the people who know more about planets than anyone else. Believers who fear a collision with “Planet X,” also known as “Nibiru,” claim it was originally discovered by the ancient Sumerians. I have spoken to believers who say this planet is “hiding” behind the Sun right now. Many unconvincing photos of Planet X peeking out from behind the Sun are posted on the Web. Apparently these images impress people who don't understand what often happens when cameras are pointed at the Sun. (It's called a lens flare.) Originally it was predicted that this planet would hit the Earth in May 2003.6 When it failed to show, many Nibiru believers revised their doomsday date and jumped on the 2012 bandwagon. Changing dates, by the way, is nothing new. Prophets of doom have been playing that game for thousands of years. I'm no Nostradamus, but after December 21, 2012, fails, I boldly predict somebody will come up with a new and “correct” interpretation of the Maya calendar that pushes the date forward by several years or so. And many people will believe it!
50 Popular Beliefs That People Think Are True Page 39