twenty years of temperature observations: Nathan M. Urban et al., “Historical and Future Learning About Climate Sensitivity.” Geophysical Research Letters 41.7 (April 16, 2014): 2543–2552. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059484/abstract.
“Impacts of ocean acidification”: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, April 2014, Chapter 6, 138. ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap6_FGDall.pdf.
as acidity increases: K. L. Ricke et al., “Risks to Coral Reefs from Ocean Carbon Chemistry Changes in Recent Earth Systems Model Projections.” Environmental Research Letters, July 3, 2013, 6. iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034003/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_034003.pdf.
corals might reach a tipping point: O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., “Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification.” Science 318.5857 (December 2007): 1737–1742. www.geneseo.edu/~bosch/Hoegh-Guldberg.pdf.
tropical reefs might not be affected: S. Comeau et al., “The Responses of Eight Coral Reef Calcifiers to Increasing Partial Pressure of CO2 Do Not Exhibit a Tipping Point.” Limnology and Oceanography 58.1 (January 2013): 388–398. www.aslo.info/lo/toc/vol_58/issue_1/0388.pdf.
cold-water Mediterranean corals: C. Maier et al., “Respiration of Mediterranean Cold-Water Corals Is Not Affected by Ocean Acidification as Projected for the End of the Century.” Biogeosciences 10 (August 27, 2013): 5671–5680, biogeosciences.net/10/5671/2013/bg-10-5671-2013.pdf; see also S. J. Hennige et al., “Short-Term Metabolic and Growth Responses of the Cold-Water Coral Lophelia pertusa to Ocean Acidification.” Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 99 (January 2014): 27–35. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967064513002774.
overall effects on marine organisms: Astrid C. Wittman and Hans-O. Pörtner, “Sensitivities of Extant Animal Taxa to Ocean Acidification.” Nature Climate Change 3 (August 25, 2013): 995–1001, www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n11/full/nclimate1982.html; and also, Kristy J. Kroeker et al., “Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Organisms: Quantifying Sensitivities and Interaction with Warming.” Global Change Biology 19.6 (June 2013): 1884–1896. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3664023/.
damages in 2095 are $12 trillion: William D. Nordhaus, “Economic Aspects of Global Warming in a Post-Copenhagen Environment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107.26 (May 10, 2010): 11721–11726. www.pnas.org/content/107/26/11721.full.pdf+html&.
how the world’s economy might evolve: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, SSP Database Version 0.9.3, revised March 2013, secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about.
an average of about 1.5 percent: William Nordhaus, The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2013, 139.
business-as-usual path: Nicholas Stern, Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Executive Summary, 2006. siteresources.worldbank.org/INTINDONESIA/Resources/226271-1170911056314/3428109-1174614780539/SternReviewEng.pdf.
“rich generations have a lower ethical claim”: Nordhaus, The Climate Casino, 187.
extreme weather: Michael Bastasch, “Boxer Uses Oklahoma Tornado to Push Carbon Tax.” The Daily Caller, May 21, 2013. dailycaller.com/2013/05/21/boxer-uses-okla-tornado-to-push-carbon-tax/.
destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy: Greenpeace, “Hurricane Sandy = Climate Change,” Extreme Weather and Climate Change, 2013. www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/Extreme-Weather-and-Climate-Change/.
hurricanes, typhoons, hailstorms, or tornadoes: IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/.
economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, 16. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf.
“there has been little change in drought”: Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Michael Roderick, “Little Change in Global Drought over the Past 60 Years.” Nature 491 (November 14, 2012): 435–438. www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7424/full/nature11575.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20121115.
not a factor in the extreme drought: Richard Seager et al., “Causes and Predictability of the 2011–14 California Drought.” NOAA Drought Task Force, December 2014. cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Task%20Forces/DTF/californiadrought/california_drought_report.pdf.
“has declined by more than 90 percent”: Indur Goklany, Wealth and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010. Reason Foundation, September 2011. reason.org/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf.
“anthropogenic climate change so far”: Laurens Bouwer, “Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, January 27, 2011, 39–46. journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1.
“same result for all disasters”: Eric Neumayer and Fabian Barthel, “Normalizing Economic Loss from Natural Disasters: A Global Analysis (December 5, 2010).” Global Environmental Change 21.1 (2011) 13–24. Available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=1720414.
“Results show no detectable sign”: J. I. Barredo, “Normalised Flood Losses in Europe 1970–2006.” Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences 9 (February 9, 2009): 97–104, www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/97/2009/nhess-9-97-2009.pdf; and J. I. Barredo, “No Upward Trend in Normalised Windstorm Losses in Europe: 1970–2008,” Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences 10 (January 15, 2010): 97–104. www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/97/2009/nhess-9-97-2009.pdf.
global greenhouse gas emissions: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/; Summary for Policymakers, report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf; Technical Summary, report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_technical-summary.pdf.
each country made pledges: US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, White House, November 11, 2014. www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change.
preliminary draft document: UNFCCC, The Lima Call for Climate Action, Decision-/CP.20, unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014/application/pdf/auv_cop20_lima_call_for_climate_action.pdf.
permit prices had risen: Ewa Krukowska, “EON Urges EU Policy Revamp as Power Market Faces Crisis,” Bloomberg, May 6, 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/eon-urges-eu-policy-revamp-as-power-markets-face-crisis.html.
Far under the price: Stanley Reed, “European Lawmakers Try to Spur Market for Carbon Emissions Credits.” New York Times, February 6, 2014. www.nytimes.com/2014/02/07/business/international/european-lawmakers-try-to-spur-market-for-carbon-emission-credits.html?_r=0.
will cost European consumers: Michael Szabo and Jeff Coelho, “EUAs Could Crash to 3 Euros Next Year, Says UBS.” Climate Justice Now, November 18, 2011, www.climate-justice-now.org/euas-could-crash-to-3-euros-next-year-says-ubs/.
“natural baseline is a zero-carbon-tax level of emissions”: William D. Nordhaus, “After Kyoto: Alternative Mechanisms to Control Global Warming.” Foreign Policy in Focus, March 26, 2006. fpif.org/after_kyoto_alternative_mechanisms_to_control_global_warming/.
government consumption subsidies for fossil fuels: International Energy Agency, Energy Subsidies, World Energy Outlook. www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/.
barmy to subsidize agriculture: “Farmgate: The Developmental Impact of Agricultural Subsidies,” ActionAid, 2012. www.actionaid.org.uk/sites/default/files/content_document/farmgate_3132004_12159.pdf.
“Prudence demands that we consider”: Ken Caldeira, “We Should Plan for the Worst-Case Climate Scenario.” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 29, 2008, thebulletin.org/has-time-come-geoengineering/we-should-plan-worst-case-climate-scena
rio.
The National Academy of Sciences: Committee on Geoengineering Climate: National Research Council, Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool the Earth, February 2015, National Academy of Sciences Press, 234 pp. www.nap.edu/catalog/18988/climate-intervention-reflecting-sunlight-to-cool-earth; and Committee on Geoengineering Climate: National Research Council, Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, National Academy of Science Press, February 2015, 140 pp. www.nap.edu./catalog/18805/climate-intervention-carbon-dioxide-removal-and-reliable-sequestration.
bioenergy carbon capture and storage: Elmar Kriegler et al., “Is Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal a Game Changer for Climate Change Mitigation?” Climatic Change 118.1 (May 2013): 45–57. link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0681-4.
Another proposal is direct air capture: Klaus Lackner et al., “The Urgency of the Development of CO2 Capture from Ambient Air.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109.33 (June 28, 2012): 13156–13162. www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/26/1108765109; and Robert Kunzig, “Scrubbing the Skies,” National Geographic, ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/13/carbon-capture-pg2
“such research is a dangerous distraction”: Hands Off Mother Earth. Letter in opposition to the Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) project. Sent to Chris Huhne, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, September 26, 2011. www.handsoffmotherearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/SPICE-Opposition-Letter.pdf.
“If humans perceive an easy technological fix”: Alan Robock, “20 Reasons Why Geoengineering May Be a Bad Idea.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64.2 (May/June 2008): 14–18. climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/20Reasons.pdf
geoengineering would likely shift rainfall patterns: Scott Barrett et al., “Climate Engineering Reconsidered.” Nature Climate Change 4 (June 25, 2014): 527–529. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n7/full/nclimate2278.html; and also Daniela F. Cusack et al., “An Interdisciplinary Assessment of Climate Engineering Strategies.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 12.5 (June 2014): 280–287. www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/130030.
cost-benefit analysis should not apply: Martin Weitzman, “On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change.” Review of Economics and Statistics 91.1 (February 2009): 1–19. www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/rest.91.1.1#.U7HYa6goxyg.
a persuasive critique of Weitzman’s dismal conclusions: William Nordhaus, “An Analysis of the Dismal Theorem,” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1686, January 16, 2009. cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16b/d1686.pdf; and William Nordhaus, “Economic Policy in the Face of Severe Tail Events.” Journal of Public Economic Theory, 14.2 (2012): 197–219, www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/documents/Nordhaus_TailEvents_JPET_2012.pdf.
the more scientifically literate: Dan M. Kahan et al., “The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons: Culture Conflict, Rationality Conflict, and Climate Change” (2011). Temple University Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2011-26; Cultural Cognition Project Working Paper No. 89; Yale Law and Economics Research Paper No. 435; Yale Law School, Public Law Working Paper No. 230. Available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=1871503 or dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1871503.
stop the development: James Gustave Speth, Red Sky at Morning: America and the Global Environmental Crisis. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004; and Ronald Bailey, “The Cultural Contradictions of Environmentalism: Fast Breeder Reactor Edition.” Reason, October 7, 2009.
coal generation kills about 4,000 times: Jerome Roos, “Coal Kills 4,000 Times More People Per Unit of Energy Than Does Nuclear.” Breakthrough Institute, April 11, 2011. thebreakthrough.org/archive/coal_kills_4000_times_more_peo.
nuclear power avoided: Pushker A. Kharecha and James E. Hansen, “Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power.” Environmental Science and Technology 47 (March 15, 2013): 4889–4895. pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es3051197.
“would decay to background levels”: Albert J. Juhasz, Richard A. Rarick, and Rajmohan Rangarajan, “High Efficiency Nuclear Power Plants Using Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor Technology.” Seventh International Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, August 2–5, 2009, Denver, Colorado, enu.kz/repository/2009/AIAA-2009-4565.pdf.
China is working on a project: Jennifer Duggan, “China Working on Uranium-Free Nuclear Plants in Attempt to Combat Smog.” The Guardian, March 19, 2014. www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/19/china-uranium-nuclear-plants-smog-thorium.
traveling wave reactors are designed: Tyler Ellis, “Traveling-Wave Reactors: A Truly Sustainable and Full-Scale Resource for Global Energy Needs,” Paper 10189, Proceedings of ICAPP 2010, San Diego, CA, USA, June 13–17, 2010. large.stanford.edu/courses/2012/ph241/levin2/docs/ICAPP_2010_Paper_10189.pdf.
supply enough electricity to run a small city: Guy Norris, “Skunk Works Reveals Compact Nuclear Fusion Reactor Details,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, October 15, 2014. aviationweek.com/technology/skunk-works-reveals-compact-fusion-reactor-details.
solar, geothermal, and wind energy: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review: December 2014, Electricity Net Generation: Total (All Sectors), Table 7.2a, www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf.
“large-scale moon colonization”: Megan Nicholson and Matthew Stepp, “Challenging the Clean Energy Deployment Consensus.” Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, October 23, 2013. www2.itif.org/2013-challenging-clean-energy-deployment-consensus.pdf.
In a 2011 paper, the Stanford engineer Mark Jacobson: Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A Delucchi, “Providing All Global Energy with Wind, Water, and Solar Power, Part 1: Technologies, Energy Resources, Quantities and Areas of Infrastructure, and Materials.” Energy Policy 39 (2011): 1154–1169; see especially 1160. old.rgo.ru/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/JDEnPolicyPt1.pdf.
some way to store electricity: Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Energy Information Administration, “Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014,” April 17, 2014, www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm.
two to three times more generating capacity: Cory Budischak et al., “Cost-Minimized Combinations of Wind Power, Solar Power, and Electrochemical Storage, Powering the Grid Up to 99.9% of the Time.” Journal of Power Sources 225 (March 1, 2013): 60–74. www.ceoe.udel.edu/windpower/resources/BudischakEtAl-AsPublished-Corrected.pdf.
Americans were willing to pay just under $10 per month: Ed Crooks, “Voters Put $10 Limit on Green Energy Cost.” The Financial Times, June 17, 2011. www.financialexpress.com/news/Voters-put-10-limit-on-green-energy-cost/804824.
“Despite the skepticism of experts”: Vivek Wadhwa, “The Coming Era of Unlimited—and Free—Clean Energy.” Washington Post, September 19, 2014. www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/09/19/the-coming-era-of-unlimited-and-free-clean-energy/.
levelized unsubsidized cost of utility-scale solar PV: Lazard, Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 8.0, September 2014, www.lazard.com/PDF/Levelized%20Cost%20of%20Energy%20-%20Version%208.0.pdf.
“still require conventional technologies”: George Bilicic cited in press release, “Lazard Releases New Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis,” September 18, 2014. www.marketwatch.com/story/lazard-releases-new-levelized-cost-of-energy-analysis-2014-09-18.
low-end levelized cost for solar PV: Electric Power Research Institute, Integrated Generation Technology Options 2012, February 19, 2013. www.epri.com/abstracts/Pages/ProductAbstract.aspx?productId=000000000001026656.
solar PV will be $101 per megawatt-hour: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, May 7, 2014. www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm.
figure is already 15.9 gigawatts: Solar Energy Industries Association, “Over Half a Million Solar Installations Now Online in the U.S.,” Solar Energy Facts: Q2 2014. www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q2%202014
%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet_0.pdf.
global production capacity of solar cells/modules: Selya Price and Robert Margolis, “2008 Solar Technologies Market Report,” National Renewal Energy Laboratory, US Department of Energy, January 2010, 17. www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/pdfs/2008_solar_market_report.pdf.
85 gigawatts in 2016: Mike Munsell, “Polysilicon Capacity Growth to Accelerate, Enabling 85GW of Solar Panel Production in 2016.” GreenTechMedia, October 14, 2014. www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Polysilicon-Capacity-Growth-to-Accelerate-Enabling-85-GW-of-Solar-Panel-Pr.
That would not be too cheap: Lewis L. Strauss, speech at National Association of Science Writers, September 16, 1954, www.thisdayinquotes.com/2009/09/too-cheap-to-meter-nuclear-quote-debate.html.
disruptive new innovations: Seth Fletcher, “Secretive Company Claims Battery Breakthrough.” Scientific American, August 20, 2014. www.scientificamerican.com/article/secretive-company-claims-battery-breakthrough/.
There will be no further global treaties: Ronald Bailey, “The Kyoto Protocol Is Dead.” Reason, December 17, 2004. reason.com/archives/2004/12/17/the-kyoto-protocol-is-dead.
“the international community should stop chasing the chimera”: Timothy Wirth and Thomas Daschle, “A Blueprint to End Paralysis Over Global Action on Climate.” Yale Environment 360, May 19, 2014. e360.yale.edu/feature/a_blueprint_to_end_paralysis_over_global_action_on_climate/2766/.
“when policies focused on economic growth”: Roger Pielke Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming. New York: Basic Books, 2010, 272.
“The paramount goal of climate policy”: Matthew Stepp and Megan Nicholson, Beyond 2015: An Innovation-Based Framework for Global Climate Policy. Center for Clean Energy Innovation, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, May 2014.
“Social and environmental hazards like climate change”: Mark Caine et al., Our High Energy Planet—A Climate Pragmatism Project. Breakthrough Institute, April 2014; and Charles R. Frank Jr., The Net Benefits of Low and No-Carbon Electricity Technologies. Working Paper 73, Brookings Institution, May 2014.
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