Winter Storm

by John Schettler

  Fedorov smiled, nodding his head. “Kita No Kaze Kumori,” he said. ‘That was a Japanese wind code phrase that roughly translates ‘north wind cloudy,’ and that was code for the status of relations between Japan and Russia, and in this instance, with you. It seems we have a nice winter storm brewing in the Pacific if you take this line, Captain.”

  “Are you advising me not to do so?”

  “No, I haven’t said that. Now that I know what you intend, I think it is a carefully weighed cart of apples. But I also think it will probably not produce the results you expect. Oh, the Japanese may make every outward appearance of accommodating you. They may even go so far as to open negotiations on what they will call the disputed territories. I think they might offer you something, appease you, and then they would simply have to hem and haw about it until they completed their attack. After that, you get nothing, and the Kwangtung Army is put on full alert, as is their navy. They would prefer to keep you neutral, but they will not compromise their war plan to gain that neutrality. They have bigger fish to fry.”

  “They are the ones who end up in the pan, Fedorov, and I can put them there much sooner than they think. Their entire war plan depends on this Kido Butai, does it not? I can sink every last one of those carriers, and take all their naval air power away from them in a single battle. Then what could they do?”

  “The Americans virtually did that to them at the Battle of Midway, sir. They continued to fight for many years after. I spoke of the Japanese mindset earlier. If anything, it is even going to be more determined, more entrenched, because Japan has become a major power in the Pacific, right alongside the United States. That is who they perceive as their real enemy now, America.”

  Karpov nodded. “Let me share a bit of intelligence with you,” he said. “My man Tyrenkov informed me that Volkov flew east for a meeting with the Japanese in Mongolia after his visit with Hitler. You and I both know he is aware of this history, perhaps not with the detail and insight you have, but he knows all the mistakes Japan made in this war. You were pointing them out to me earlier—their failure to get the American fuel bunker and sub pens. Do you suppose Volkov has briefed the Japanese on this? Could he be trying to influence the outcome of this attack?”

  “That is very likely,” said Fedorov.

  “So you see, this changes things from our perspective. There is a demon on the other side whispering in Hitler’s ear one day, and in Tojo’s the next.”

  Fedorov smiled. “Believe it or not, I’ve whispered in Sergei Kirov’s ear, and in Churchill’s.”

  “Precisely. You know that intelligence wins this war. So does Volkov. So we have to consider that the Japanese may be planning a much more devastating attack on Pearl harbor if Volkov pointed out the shortcomings of their initial plan. Suppose they do go after those fuel bunkers, and the American sub pens, ignoring the battleships.”

  “Oh, they won’t ignore the battleships. They’ll have to get as many of those as they can. But what you say does raise some fears.”

  “Well, how far back would that put the American war effort here—in the Pacific?”

  “Certainly months, possibly half a year. The fuel could be replaced. I told you the Japanese were very remiss about soft naval targets. Remember what I said about mindset. Battleships yes, oil tankers, no glory there.”

  “Unless Ivan Volkov gets his message into their heads,” said Karpov.

  “I suppose we would not know that until after the fact.”

  “Correct,” said Karpov flatly.

  Something in his tone put Fedorov on his guard. “You say that as if… Why as if you planned to let them go ahead and make their attack to see what they might do.”

  “That thought has crossed my mind.”

  Fedorov gave him a strange look. “One minute you’re talking about destroying the Kido Butai, and now you suggest we allow them to attack as planned? Just to see what Volkov may have told them?”

  “Oh, no, I can find that out tomorrow if I wish. I could get on a secure line with Volkov and squeeze it out of him. He’d like nothing more than to boast that he now has Japan on a leash, and that I’d better look to my southern front, because the Japanese are coming. In fact, he may be making some initial moves to coordinate with the Japanese even now. I had some intelligence on unusual airship fleet deployments. He knows that a winter storm is coming. His finger is in the wind too, Fedorov. That’s why he’s been called the Prophet all these years.”

  “Can you fight a two front war?” asked Fedorov.

  “It’s barely one front now,” said Karpov. Volkov pulled most of his best troop s off to the Volga Front. That’s where he thinks he’ll win through, and I wouldn’t disagree with that. At the moment, I’ve sent much of my western army group to Sergei Kirov, but there was some bad news in Nikolin’s report. Tyrenkov, my intelligence chief, thinks a coup may be underway in Moscow. There may have even been an attempt on Kirov’s life. We don’t have all the information yet, but I’ll know more soon.”

  Fedorov shrugged. “That’s terrible news! Sergei Kirov was the only hope for Russia’s future.”

  “I thought as much,” said Karpov. “But it seems the winds are rising and everything is in play now. We all reap the whirlwind if someone got to Kirov. It could unhinge the entire Soviet war effort, and they were already this close to defeat as it was.” He held up two fingers to emphasize his point. “Here the house is on fire, the German Army has kicked in the front door and stomped right in, and now Japan is sneaking around out back. Even your British friends are in it up to their hatbands again, as they might say. There was a big battle in the desert, an operation Crusader. You know of this?”

  “Crusader? It was an attempt to relieve Tobruk in November of this year, but they’ve already done that. Rommel has been sitting on the Gazala line for months. Perhaps they’re trying to move him west and take Cyrenaica. You’re saying the British already mounted that operation?”

  “It’s underway now,” said Karpov, “and I’m told the Germans have new tanks. They’re starting to deploy to both the eastern front and to Rommel’s Afrika Korps.”

  “That was inevitable,” said Fedorov.

  “You mean because of the new British tank? You must have good information on that by now.”

  “Captain,” said Fedorov with a shrug. “I think it’s time I told you what the Admiral and I have been doing the last year or so. This one will be hard to swallow, but as God is my witness, it’s all true.”

  Part XII

  Climb Mount Niitaka

  “The fate of our nation depends on this battle—All hands will exert themselves to their utmost.”

  —Admiral Togo

  Flag signal message from BB Mikasa at the outset of the Battle of Tsushima Strait. This message was repeated by CV Akagi, fleet flagship, as the attack on Pearl Harbor was launched.

  Chapter 34

  The Imperial Japanese Navy that would undertake this journey was one of the largest and most professional forces in the world. The heart of the fleet were the carriers, unsurpassed by any other navy, and there were more available due to additions no man could read about in the older history this world was derived from.

  There were 10 carriers Fedorov could name, with two that had originally been designed as battlecruisers, the fleet Flagship Akagi, and the Kaga. Yet in this world, another Kaga Class ship, CV Tosa, was also converted, forsaking her appointment with the scrap yards. Next came the Hiryu and Soryu, both ships built between 1934 and 1936 as full fleet size carriers, and they were soon followed by Zuikaku and Shokaku, perhaps the finest fleet carriers in the world. They were fast at 34 knots, well protected, with excellent range and a compliment of 81 aircraft.

  To these seven ships, another project that was nearing completion as war broke out was the all new Taiho, a ship designed with much thicker skin in its armored belt and flight deck. It was not the same ship the Japanese would commission in 1944 in Fedorov’s history, though it stole that name and many design f
eatures from the old Taiho. The idea here was to build “battle endurance” into a carrier, making it an armored knight and allowing it to take hits and still survive as a battle worthy asset.

  As such, Taiho would get 152mm belt armor, 50% thicker than that on a Mogami class heavy cruiser, and a tough armored flight deck 80mm thick. It would also bristle with a dozen 100mm AA guns, and over fifty 25mm cannons, with a compliment of 65 aircraft. Said to be the toughest carrier in the fleet, it was also fast, delivering an amazing 33 knots with all that armor. The Empire’s accelerated building program saw it delivered to the fleet almost two years early, Japan’s 8th, and newest, fleet carrier

  This same idea of creating a tougher fighting carrier had perhaps been born in the long standing duel between the big gun advocates and the carrier faction. It resulted in a pair of ships unlike any that had been seen before on the high seas, when two more fast battlecruisers that had been in the shipyards were also slated for conversion to carriers. With war on the minds of the Imperial General Staff, and the need for carriers now taking the highest priority in the shipyards, these two projects were put on the fast track by creating a hybrid ship. The forward segments of the design, which had already been completed as a battlecruiser, would be left as they were. Their two twin armored turrets bearing 40cm guns were left in place. Everything aft of the main armored conning tower was cancelled, and instead an armored deck occupied that entire space, with the underdeck areas cleared for hanger storage sufficient for 24 aircraft.

  It was this same idea that had led German designers to build the fast escort carrier Goeben, but the Japanese had been the first to launch such ships, commissioning both Gozu and Mezu in 1938. Like Taiho, they had thick skin, with 200mm belt armor, 100mm armored deck, a sturdy conning tower protected by 200mm, and those two heavy turrets. Weight was saved with that slightly thinner belt armor, lighter conning tower and the removal of all the aft superstructure along with that third aft turret. It produced an excellent, sturdy ‘battlecarrier,’ a new class in the navy that could run at 32 knots, sting hard with those four 40cm guns, and also throw 12 fighters and 12 dive bombers into the battle. The fleet was so pleased with the ships, that they took the third Yamato class battleship and ordered its immediate conversion along this same model, designating the new design Shinano. This order was cut shortly after the ship was laid down in 1940, and not after Japan’s disastrous defeat at Midway. Thus Shinano, like Taiho, was also on the list of ships that would make an early appearance in the war, now on schedule for completion some time in 1942.

  The eight fleet carriers and those two hybrids would also be joined by a number of smaller carriers, and the first of these were three converted ocean liners. Hiyo and Junyo were both liners purchased by the Empire for this purpose, and completed before the war, a full year early, with 48 planes each. They were hefty at over 24,000 tons, and could make only 25 knots, but added some middleweight punch to the Navy’s carrier divisions that was very useful. A third liner owned by the Nippon Yusen shipping line was first slated to become a troop ship, and then reconverted to a carrier to become the 20,000 ton Taiyo.

  In the lightweight division, several sub tenders had been built with the deliberate intention of converting them to aircraft carriers in time of war. One was the Ryuho, at 16,700 tons, the “Great Phoenix” rising from the original design of the sub tender Taigei, or “Great Whale.” Two smaller tenders were also converted to light carriers, the Zuiho and Shoho, which were 11,000 ton ships carrying only 30 planes, but relatively fast at 28 knots.

  At the bottom of the scale came Ryujo, a design that managed to squeeze 48 planes onto her small 10,000 ton frame, and could still run at 29 knots. This ship proved to be top-heavy, and this flaw had not been corrected by the time war broke out, and so she was dry docked in Yokohama, along with the venerable old 7,400 ton Hosho, the ship laying the claim as the first aircraft carrier ever built.

  All told, Japan would deploy eight fleet carriers, her two new hybrids, three medium carriers converted from liners, and the three light sub tender conversions, making the IJN unchallenged with all of 16 aircraft carriers in late 1941. By comparison the US Navy had seven carriers, and the vaunted Royal Navy had eight, so Japan’s Navy had more naval air power at its disposal than both those allied nations combined. This was not something Fedorov knew at first, though he soon discovered the changes and noted them for his report to Karpov.

  There were also a few differences in the battleships, one prominent exception being the second Yamato class ship, Musashi, which was also completed in time for the show, joining the fleet nine months early. With those two 72,000 ton monsters on the sea, Japan could also claim the largest and most powerful battleships ever built. And seeing the need for fast heavy gunned ships capable of running with her newest carriers, the Empire was adding a pair of excellent battleships to her list of commissioned ships, inspired by the British design for HMS Hood.

  The two new ships were Satsuma and Hiraga, and at 42,000 tons they were heavier than any of the Empire’s older battlewagons dating to the 1920s. Each carried nine 16-inch guns on three triple turrets, and their long, sleek hull and powerful engines saw them running at 30 knots. Nothing in the fleet battleship division was faster, and only the super heavyweights could hit harder, which made these ships the equal of most any other battleship then afloat.

  Japan’s “Battleship Row” was then finished off by their older designs, ten more ships in the 27,000 to 32,000 ton weight division. Nagato and Mutsu had eight 16-inch guns, but could only work up to 26 knots. Next came the four ships in the Kongo class, Hiei, Kirishima, Haruna, and Kongo itself. They were a little faster at a hair under 28 knots, which was enough to see them often working with the carriers. The last four, Ise, Hyuga, Fuso and Yamashiro were much slower at 23 knots, but had good punch with their twelve 14-inch guns distributed over six turrets. Later in the war, those that survived would be eyed as possible battlecarrier conversions.

  Next came the heavy cruisers, and the startling new innovation here was the B-65 Super Cruiser project, one conceived in Fedorov’s old history, but never built. But here in these altered states, the seed of that project fell on good ground, and the result was a superb new class of ships that embraced the idea of the ‘pocket battleship’ first pioneered by the Germans.

  There were two completed in the class, Amagi, and Kagami, and they featured the same long forecastle, clipper bow, and swept decks of the Yamato class, only with nine 12.2-inch guns. They were also well protected with 210mm belt armor and 180mm on the conning tower, and they were very fast at nearly 34 knots, with an 8,000 nautical mile endurance. Some called them fast battlecruisers, but the Japanese classified them as super Type A cruisers.

  The cruiser classes beneath these two fearsome leaders were among the best in the world, with speeds pushing 36 knots, good 8-inch guns, and the world’s premier torpedo on reloadable turrets, the dreadful Type 93, soon to be called the ‘Long Lance’ by historian Samuel Morrison. Nothing else in the world compared to it, unless it was to be found on the new flagship of the Siberian Navy, the battlecruiser Kirov.

  Both on paper, and on the wild Pacific Ocean, this was a navy that was second to none. The British and Americans might have more destroyers, and better submarines, but these surface ships, particularly the lavish carrier divisions, made the Imperial Japanese Navy a dangerous and capable force, and one that now threatened to raise havoc all throughout Southeast Asia.

  Fedorov concluded this extensive briefing with Karpov, running down the ships, their numbers and capabilities, and making particular note of the newcomers he had become aware of. “And let us not forget that they also have another good port in the north.”

  “Yes,” said Karpov, “our port, Vladivostok. We shall have to do some long range reconnaissance of the Golden Horn Bay to see what may be berthed there. We already know they have strong air units based there, and at Port Arthur as well on the Yellow Sea.”

  “Those ports are both real str
ategic assets,” said Fedorov. “Even if they do decide to negotiate with you, I doubt if either one will ever seriously be on the bargaining table. I think they would sooner give you back all of Kamchatka than yield Vladivostok.”

  “Then it will have to be taken from them.”

  “Most likely,” said Fedorov, “but how? Your divisions in the east are a long way from being in any position where they could pose a threat to that port. It’s over 2600 kilometers from your main eastern command at Irkutsk to Vladivostok, and that is as the crow flies, cutting straight through Manchuria and the entire Kwantung Army. The Trans-Siberian Rail line going around the Amur River route is over 3200 kilometers. The only other way to take it by force would be by amphibious assault, and for that you’ll need a good deal more than this ship.”

  “Your assessment is fairly grim, Fedorov.”

  “But those are the facts, sir. The Japanese certainly know all this as much as I do. You can threaten and make demands, but I do not think you can take Vladivostok from them by force, and they will know it.”

  “Then what do we put on the scales of war that would be heavy enough to break them?” Karpov was pacing now, finally realizing the true scale of the foe he was sizing up. What do they need more than anything else if they are to pursue their war aims?”

  “Those aircraft carriers,” said Fedorov. “Without them they have some marvelous battleships and cruisers, but they will not be able to project naval air power. To lose them would mean they would be forced to restrict their advances to areas where they could quickly seize land based airfields and build up air power. If the Americans have carriers, they can establish sea dominance very quickly, neutralize those heavy surface units, and then easily interdict Japan’s effort to supply its overseas bases. Japanese sea power lies in the Kido Butai. Take that away from them and they are a third rate navy again, still dangerous, but manageable, and doomed to eventual defeat. They would not even match the Kriegsmarine, considering that Germany’s U-boat arm is far more potent than the Japanese submarine force, and their surface units are every bit as good as the Japanese, except perhaps for the cruisers.”