by Mark Goodwin
Adam locked the fuel in the tool boxes in the back of his truck. He didn't keep his roofing tools in the lockable metal tool boxes to reduce the chances of them being broken into and his tools stolen.
The next stop was Allen's new and used boat shop. Not many people were buying boats since the crisis and the store was only open half days, three days a week; Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Allen’s also did maintenance and repairs. They had done a brisk business in the years before the depression. Even in the past few years, they had done quite a lot of repair work for folks who wanted to keep their small fishing boats in good shape. Fishing was a popular past time at the nearby Wood Creek Lake. It was an affordable pass time that also provided fish for dinner.
Matt and Adam found seven deep cycle batteries at the boat shop. Deep cycle batteries that are used for boats are essentially the same as a car battery, but they are designed to be regularly discharged using up most of their capacity.
Matt bought them all. He also found some cables to use to connect the batteries in parallel to provide backup power for his home. If he was able to find additional solar panels, they would be charged using the solar panels. If not, he could still recharge them using a regular car charger. Of course he would still need electricity for that, but they would help out in the case of brown outs.
Matt had once listened to a Prepper Recon Podcast interview of a modern survivalist named Ferfal on the aftermath of the 2001 currency collapse in Argentina. Ferfal had described a prolonged period of brown outs in Argentina during the crisis. Ferfal also told about 'dirty power' which was periods that the wattage was too low to power many appliances. Having a battery backup would allow Matt to charge up the battery bank during times when wattage was running at regular strength and then use that power when the grid wasn't producing enough power or when it was completely down.
Their next stop was the local home improvement store. Several items were stripped off of the shelves. Especially items like batteries and flash lights were gone. People around London, Kentucky were definitely expecting things to get worse.
Chainsaws were completely out of stock. He did find some bar and chain oil for chainsaws. He bought it in case he was able to find a chainsaw somewhere else. He also picked up several different types of oil for small engines. If this stuff ran out, it would be as good as gold for anyone who needed it.
Matt found a solar kit. It was overpriced, but he was stuck. He had tried ordering some solar panels from a couple of different sellers on Amazon, but they all had back order notices. He didn't know if they would ever arrive or not. He had paid with his credit card, so he wouldn't be out any cash if they didn't arrive.
Paying with credit cards was quickly becoming obsolete. Credit card companies were getting hit with record numbers of defaults; even from their most qualified customers. Most everyone had their credit limits reduced by 75%. Some were reduced by 95% and others completely cancelled.
Matt bought the kit. The four panels in the kit produced only 60 watts. That was less than half of what one of Matt's 158 watt panels produced. But they would still produce additional electricity. The kit also had a piece of junk charging regulator and a piece of junk, 200 watt inverter to change the voltage from DC in the battery bank to AC that could be used by household appliances. The charging regulator and the 800 watt inverter Matt already had were good components. "Well, at least I'll have backups." Matt thought to himself.
Matt found some battery operated alarms for doors and windows, but nothing for a perimeter alarm system. Adam had a quick solution using mouse traps to fabricate simple perimeter alarms, so he picked up a box of those which were well stocked at the home improvement store. Adam explained the ridiculously simple concept of the device to Matt. The area just under the striking position of the mouse trap bar would be drilled out to accept a .22 caliber nail gun load. Then he would attach a small strip of plastic to hold a shortened roofing nail in place over the nail gun load. The device could be attached to a tree at shin height and a trip line ran to an adjacent tree. If anyone tripped the line, the shot would ring out to alert Matt of the intrusion and likely scare of the intruder.
The last stop was at Eli Millers'. Mr. Miller was an old timer. He was kind and knew a lot of lost arts. Adam stopped by Mr. Miller’s place often to visit and trade. They had been bartering for years. Mr. Miller regularly sold his excess produce, eggs, honey and milk. Adam would often trade for the items with beef when he would slaughter a bull.
Eli Miller came out of his farm house as Adam’s truck drove up the long dirt path from the main road. Mr. Miller had on well worn overalls, a nice shirt and grey ball cap. Mr. Miller used to have a hand painted sign that read "eggs, milk, honey, fruits and vegetables" by the road near his drive several years ago. He took it down after the FDA had fined him $500 for not complying with regulations he knew nothing about. People still traded with Mr. Miller. Word of mouth was all the advertisement he needed.
Adam asked Mr. Miller if he would sell a few hens and a rooster.
"I might have a few hens I'd sell, but ain't got no roosters to sell. I only got two of ‘em right now." Eli stated.
"How much?" Matt inquired.
"Well, I could probably only sell five but you can have ‘em for 25 cents each. Of course that will be in silver money from before 1964. That paper money ain't gona be worth nothin' in a week or two. If you ain't got silver, we can trade something else. Folks talk about inflation but a silver quarter is what I paid for a live chicken in 1940. Prices ain't changed; just the value of that paper money has gone to the devil."
Matt and Adam laughed at the man's unique perspective on economics. As simple as Mr. Miller was, he knew more about money than the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Matt said "I don't' have silver quarters, but I have one once silver Eagle. A silver Eagle actually has about 3.8 grams more silver than five silver quarters."
"Well, I don't know how I'd make change for that. I'll give you a pint of honey if that'd be OK." Eli said.
"Oh no sir, I don't need change. I would be very happy to pay an ounce for five hens." Matt said.
"OK, but you’re gettin the honey too. I don't sleep good if I feel like cheated somebody." Mr. Miller said. "Stop by in a couple weeks. I’ll let some eggs hatch and we'll see if we don't get a rooster for ya."
"Thank you very much sir." Matt said. "Would you have any goats to sell?"
"I'll sell you a nanny for another one of those silver eagles. Same thing with the buck though. I don’t have none to sell. If any of ‘em give a buck next spring, I'll sell it to you." Miller said.
"That would be great. Here’s the silver for the female goat and the hens. Can I give you a deposit for the rooster or the buck goat?" Matt asked.
"I don't need a deposit son. We'll shake on it and that’s that." Miller replied.
Matt realized at that moment that this was the way things were supposed to be. The rat race he had lived in for years had corrupted his mind to accept as normal the viscous way people treated each other in South Florida. It was like that in big cities all over America.
He felt such gratitude in his heart to have met Mr. Miller. If the world was going to fall apart, it was much better to be near folks like Mr. Miller than the mean people he had left behind.
Adam convinced Matt that he would not be finding any type of night vision equipment in any of the gun shops or outdoor shops around London. Most of the gun shops were not even open. They had not been able to stock weapons or ammunition since the SNAP riots. The only things they had were holsters and slings; it was hard to justify opening up just for that. Night vision was just one more thing that Matt knew he should have bought when he had the chance.
Matt and Adam returned to Matt's house. It was already after 11:30 by the time he had put the chickens in the old coop. Matt tied the goat to a nearby tree and went in to watch the speech.
Karen had the speech tuned on the television. The signal was out of Lexington and the quality was OK.
It was the best channel they could get with the digital antenna. Matt decided to stick with the digital antenna rather than go through the hassle of getting satellite. The satellite company had stated delays similar to the phone company. There was still no word from the phone company when they would get their DSL internet and land line phone.
"What did we miss?" Matt asked Karen.
"Nothing, he just started speaking." she replied.
Adam put on a pot of coffee then joined them in the living room.
Mustafa Al Mohammad was saying "As I promised I would, I am bringing troops home this very week. We have closed several unnecessary military bases around the world. As our relations with other nations around the world have improved through my administration, we can bring many of our men and women from the places they are no longer needed. Through trade and diplomacy, our friendship with China has never been stronger. This will allow us to not only close all of our bases on foreign soil in the Pacific, but we are also recalling all of our fleets of submarines, battle cruisers and aircraft carriers from the Pacific.
We will be able to dedicate the resources that have been wasted on monitoring a world that is at peace to more productive tasks that will make our future bright and our country strong.
In addition to these changes, we have made across the board cuts to all military and federal employee salaries. I have seen the belt tightening that everyday Americans have had to do over the last decade and have decided it is high time Washington made some sacrifices too. It is not fair to watch Americans struggle while we sit in Washington and live high on the hog.
We have also made some very significant changes to ensure that vital programs like Social Security, Medicare and the SNAP food assistance program can remain solvent well into the future. By making what seems like very minor adjustments in the payouts of these programs today, we will be able to see these programs continue to care for America's most vulnerable tomorrow.
To grant added security to Americans who depend on these programs to live, we have also received a commitment from the IMF to sure up these programs, should we ever require their help.
These new temporary payout rates will take effect tomorrow and will guarantee recipients will receive no less than 85% of the benefits they have been promised.
We have fought and fought to get the rich to pay their fair share over the past eight years. We have had some success, but today, we are instituting a new kind of stimulus program. Rather than have the middle class tax payer foot the bill, we are asking those who have more, to do just a little bit more to pay back the country that has made them wealthy. The FDIC will be lowering the insured bank deposit amount to $75,000 per depositor.
Not only will this reduce the burden on low and middle income tax payers of having to insure the wealth of the rich, it will also stimulate our economy. The economists who have helped us develop this stimulus model have projected that this will cause those with deposits higher than $75,000 to spend more. Spending will create economic activity and kick start America into a new age of prosperity. Things are getting better every day. This little boost will get us back to achieving our full potential.
Keep looking up America. The future is bright!"
Al Mohammad waved to the hall of college students he had been speaking to. The crowd cheered him as if they bought every word that he spoke.
"These liberal kids from George Washington University were the only people left on earth that would cheer for this looser, so I guess the speech had to be there." Karen said.
"Did he just cut Social Security and Medicaid by 15% and tell the American people he did them a favor?" Matt said.
"He sure did. He didn't specify how much the military pay cuts would be, but he just made it easier for a patriot to walk away if it ever comes to choosing sides." Adam added.
Matt said sarcastically "Well at least the new rates are only 'temporary'."
Karen replied "The rates are temporary all right, because there won't be anything at all in a month or two."
Matt added "Paul Randall has been warning everyone for years that this day was coming. If we would have started to phase in the cuts a long time ago, it would have been so much more tolerable.
I don't buy that baloney about trying to stimulate the economy by lowering the FDIC limits. They are setting us up for a bail in like they had in Cyprus, Spain and Italy."
Karen asked for clarification "A bail in is where they confiscate the citizens money from their bank accounts?"
"Yes." Matt answered. "They will take all deposits above the FDIC insured amounts."
"Why would they tip their hand and lower the FDIC insurance amount? Won't that trigger a run on the banks?" Adam asked.
Matt answered "Anything they confiscate below the FDIC limit would have to be paid back from the insurance fund. It essentially would be an exercise in futility; not that the government has ever shied away from those in the past.
It sounds like they expect a lot of people to withdraw their money. It may even actually spark a brief period of economic activity like Al Mohammad said. The majority of people who still have more than $75,000 in the banking system are so oblivious to the problems that are unfolding right now, nothing will wake them up. They’re in a normalcy bias comma. Because they weren't around for the bank runs in the 1930's, they don't believe anything like that could ever happen in America. They think we’re immune. Worse than that, they trust the system."
Adam then asked "So they actually have the money in the FDIC insurance fund to pay people if this triggers a bank run and the banks can't pay?"
Matt chuckled as he responded "Not at all. Current reserve limits set by the Fed require banks to keep around 10% of their deposits liquid. Although what they consider liquid is not all cash that could be handed out to depositors in a run. Realistically, banks could give depositors about 5% of their deposit before they went belly up. Now, problem number two is that there is only about $1.1 trillion in paper money and most of that is not in a bank to be handed out. I don't know the exact numbers, because so many people have been sticking the actual cash under their mattress lately. Let's be generous. Let's say half of the $1.1 trillion is actually in the banks and not under mattresses and in wallets. That leaves $550 billion in the banking system. Quantitative Easing has caused the M2 money supply to explode and it is now near $14 trillion dollars. That’s what depositors will be demanding from banks in a run. So after they pay out the $550 billion, there will be $13.45 trillion that the FDIC will be responsible for covering. The FDIC has about $33 billion in the insurance fund. That is a rounding error in the terms we are talking about and changes our $13.45 trillion to $13.42 trillion that the banks are short of being able to pay out in a run."
"But the Fed could just print the money right?" Adam asked.
Matt answered "They would have to print the $33 billion from the insurance fund first; it doesn't exist in physical form. A pallet of $100 dollar bills is about $1 billion dollars. To make $1 trillion, you need a football field of pallets of $100 dollar bills stacked two high. You are talking about 14 foot ball fields of $100 bills on pallets stacked two high to pay out the entire $14 trillion. That would take years to produce in physical form. It could never happen."
"Well, the dollar won't be worth the paper it’s not printed on in a few months anyway, so it’s a moot point." Karen said in a very matter of fact manner.
The guys laughed. She had not said it to be funny, but the point had shown them what an absurd waste of time it was to discuss the matter further.
CHAPTER 36
"The nature of the encroachment upon American constitution is such, as to grow every day more and more encroaching. Like a cancer; it eats faster and faster every hour. The revenue creates pensioners, and the pensioners urge for more revenue. The people grow less steady, spirited and virtuous, the seekers more numerous and more corrupt, and every day increases the circles of their dependents and expectants, until virtue, integrity, public spirit, simplicity and frugali
ty become the objects of ridicule and scorn, and vanity, luxury, foppery, selfishness, meanness, and downright venality swallow up the whole of society."
- John Adams
Matt and Karen woke up a bit earlier Thursday morning. Matt was determined to start getting up before the sun so he could maximize his day. Fortunately, in December the sun came up a bit later than the rest of the year.
Matt fed the chickens and the goat. He didn't find any eggs, but Mr. Miller said they might take a few days to get used to the new environment. The goat seemed to like the little bed Matt made for her in the metal work barn. He had put down an old blanket so the animal wouldn't be on the concrete floor. He didn't have any fence to keep her contained, so he was just tying her up to a nearby tree to forage during the day. He fed here some of the left over rice and beans from the previous evening meal. She seemed to enjoy those just as much as the chickens did.
Karen had a day planned with the girls and Janice. They were going to make homemade Christmas cookies. Christmas was still three weeks away, but there would be more cookies to be made over the coming weeks.
The chores were done and they were out the door by 8:30. Matt and Karen walked the road to Adams both to save gas and for the exercise. Wesley met Matt at the door when they arrived.
"Want to help me pick out a tree?" Wesley asked.
Matt had completely forgotten about getting a Christmas tree. The move, thinking about the economy and everything else had completely filled up his mind. Picking out a good Christmas tree would be a great distraction to clear his mind from all the troubles.
"Sure, Wes. Let me just stick my head in the door and say hi to the family." Matt answered.
Wes and Adam walked to the barn to get an ax. It had been a long time since either one of them had swung an ax, but they were trying to conserve fuel and the chainsaw for when they really needed it; besides, it would be nice to actually chop down a Christmas tree.