Travel through space is limited by the speed of light. This is 186,000 miles per second or almost 300,000km per second.
Evolution of life proceeds by the same mechanism on earth as it does everywhere else in the galaxy.
Our understanding of life is such that death is caused when a limited number of cell replications expires but by artificially extending the number of cell divisions, life can be extended indefinitely.
Many reading this will not approve or like the above conditions, especially the first. Restricted speed seems to be something which is limiting our imagination, especially when it has been drummed into our heads by science fiction that easy travel around the galaxy is a reality. To suggest otherwise is disappointing but nevertheless true.
Following on from the above conditions, should life progress to venture into planetary space, any further travel towards interstellar space would take hundreds and thousands of years to accomplish. In this respect, the notion of one race expanding to create an empire is nonsensical. It is a consequence of living a long life that a species will wish to travel through interstellar space, probably in large space arks made from asteroids, to become nomadic in character and it's only with longevity that a species will be able to effectively travel between the stars.
The example given with Exordium may not have occurred in some of the minor details given, but overall, the scenario could well be an accurate one and the logical deduction of the psychology of these beings could be accurate too. Essentially, if beings from another star system have visited, or are presently visiting, Earth, then the methods by which they could accomplish this are limited and the only logical way they could really do this is by the method illustrated. Without meeting the extraterrestrials, we can infer not only their method of transport but how they think as well.
For our convenience of continuing the argument, it would be helpful to imagine that the Exordicans existed. Where they came from originally and for how long they've travelled doesn't really matter, the important point to make is that they may be here. One could argue that the chances of this happening require a miracle. Perhaps not. If we imagine they've been travelling through interstellar space for four million years, how many star systems have they encountered on their way?
If the frequency is only one star system per thousand years, which is a reasonable estimate considering the speed of the asteroid ship, the time taken to accelerate and decelerate and the time spent at a system to gather resources, then the number of visits over their history would be four thousand. During this time, they would have travelled approximately thirty thousand light years or, about one-third the way across the galaxy.
In another twist to the problem, it's perfectly reasonable to suppose that of the one hundred thousand million stars in the galaxy, a small number developed life which followed the same path as the Exordicans in travelling as nomads between the stars. If only one in one hundred million did this, it still leaves one thousand nomadic civilisations wandering about the galaxy. If you reduced this number to those occurring within a one-quarter segment of the galaxy, then the number is, of course, two hundred and fifty.
So, the argument could follow that in our quarter, two hundred and fifty nomadic civilisations have each travelled thirty thousand light years to four thousand locations each. This would mean that over a period of time, one million systems will have been visited by beings not from that same system. This is quite a large number. However, the number of stars in each sector is approximately twenty five thousand million, leading you to think that the odds for any one system being visited up to this point in the galaxy's history is twenty five thousand to one against. Now, these are quite long odds.
The odds could be shortened radically if you consider that the Exordicans, or whoever, would not visit any old star. It is more than likely they would stay away from areas with very large stars which could be prone to a supernova explosion; definitely not a healthy option in such a locality. Other more stable stars, but quite large and hot, may still not be viable places to visit because stable planetary systems with worlds to exploit may not have been able to form in the limited lifetime of these type of stars. Similarly, small red stars, of which there is a very large number in the galaxy, may not be suitable stopping points because of the likely absence of planets in orbits not locked rotationally to the primary star.
Population 1 and population 2 stars differ in that the first are partially composed of the remains of previous stars, many of which underwent supernovae explosions so enriching the next generations with heavier elements, while second are composed of primordial hydrogen and helium with little heavy elements and little chance of forming life bearing planets. If population 2 stars were no good for our purposes, we would have to forget about most of the stars towards the centre of the galaxy and also most of the many globular clusters surrounding it. Imagining a planet around a star in a globular cluster is quite intriguing: hundreds or thousands of tightly packed stars would light up the night sky with unparalleled beauty. However, if there are planets in a globular cluster they are likely to be gaseous in nature, devoid of a solid silicon surface and most definitely without a living creature on them. It seems, therefore, that the best candidate stars for nomadic needs would be those of spectral type F, G and K in the main sequence of their lives. This significantly cuts down the odds of a visit maybe to one in a thousand.
However, if you wish to calculate the odds of being visited by extraterrestrials over a specific time period, our recent history perhaps, then the chances of this happening become larger again. You would also have to take into consideration the chances that one system could be visited twice by different nomadic species. This would make the odds even larger. You could say then that it would need a miracle for extraterrestrials to visit earth. Well, perhaps not a miracle. In various countries, many people take a chance with their national lotteries. Against long odds, someone usually wins it every week. Is it a miracle if a person wins at the odds of say, fifteen million to one against? Not really because if fifteen million take part then it's likely that someone wins somewhere. Now, a real miracle would be someone winning who hadn't bought a ticket!
These are the odds of earth being visited by aliens or extraterrestrials. While the odds are long, they are not impossible and some events in our history may lead us to suppose that we have been visited either in the distant past or within recent years. In fact, the two occurrences may be part of the same visit.
It might be helpful if we look at the things which could happen when extraterrestrials make a visit. In this case, we'll continue the story on what the outcome could be if beings like the Exordicans chanced to come upon the solar system.
In the first place, a G type star with its entourage of planets is an enticing place for Exordicans: a stable sun, not liable to excessive temperature fluctuations; eight major planets at varying distances from the sun, each with different properties and constituent elements; many satellites of all sizes, some even larger than the planet Mercury, and some with atmospheres rich in organic compounds; thousands upon thousands of asteroid bodies of varying compositions, many being suitable for mining or conversion into new asteroid ships. Much of this is detectable from a few light years distant with the use of their sophisticated instruments. Then there is also the added attraction of life on the third planet.
For a xenophobic race like the Exordicans, unable to take chances which would put them in jeopardy in any way, the presence of, from their point of view, aliens, would be a major minus point for electing to stay anywhere near the solar system. Monitoring our radio and television waves undoubtedly depicted stories and documentaries of a violent history of continual war for the last one thousand years. Although early Exordican history was warlike, that was four million years ago and any thought of partaking in a war would now be a complete anathema to them. To come to earth specifically because it has life, against all their inbred feelings not to take chances, must mean that there was something very rewarding to ma
ke them take the chance. Also, their superiority and power must dictate that a level of civilisation such as ours would not be a big threat. Comparable to ourselves visiting a planet populated by australopithecines, consequently we must be of very little significance to them.
If this is the case, it seems likely that an important factor in visiting the solar system is our presence. All other materials: metals, silicates, water, helium 3, hydrocarbons, radioactive materials, precious stones, whatever ... they can get in great abundance from elsewhere in our solar system or in other solar systems for that matter. What's different about this solar system is that it has life! They must want it for some reason. What do they want from us?
Before we try to discuss this complex question, it would be best to examine their methods and means of exploration. As mentioned, if they are here, the asteroid ship most likely has an orbit far out in the solar system, virtually undetectable from earth. At distances common in the Kuiper belt, somewhere around two and a half billion miles from the sun, the orbits are slow and the temperatures are low; a typical revolution around the sun out there would exceed two hundred years and temperatures hover around the -200 deg. Celsius mark. Were earth at this temperature, everything, including the atmosphere, would be frozen solid but this presents no problems for beings used to travelling through interstellar space where the ambient temperature is only a few degrees above absolute zero.
It's difficult to estimate exactly how bright the object would appear from earth. Depending on their albedo or reflecting power, asteroid surfaces vary considerably from very dark to reasonably bright. Dark asteroids are not of the right consistency for conversion into a ship. The silicate and metallic asteroids are more solid and suitable for the purpose but they have a higher albedo. The asteroid ship probably has an artificially darkened surface, the darker the better for them, but not dark enough to look different from a natural object. At the distance of the orbit from earth, a ten mile diameter dark asteroid may certainly be visible using large telescopes, including the Hubble Space Telescope, but with the best of techniques, it should appear no larger than a very faint dot on a photographic plate or, more probably, an electronic recording device. Indistinguishable from hundreds of other similar sized objects at this distance, it would be effectively lost in space. If, perchance, the object is detected then there is a small possibility that spectral analysis, that is, the identification of its element constituents by examining its light, may show unusual properties, giving a clue to its unnatural origin. However, finding the ship remains a difficult task.
It's even possible that the asteroid ship came here a few hundred years ago when telescopes were barely able to distinguish the rings of Saturn and the satellites of Jupiter. At this time, astronomers didn't even know of the existence of the planets Uranus, Neptune and Pluto so a dark asteroid many, many times fainter would pass totally unobserved.
Perhaps years were taken to replenish many of the ship supplies before they tackled the problem of life on the third planet. Preparations likely included the sending of robotic probes to observe and take samples, much as we investigate Mars today but with more technical expertise. Returning any material to the main asteroid ship constitutes a danger through possible contamination with alien microbes and viruses so it's likely that a smaller ship was stationed closer to earth to act as an expendable scientific base and relay for information. Maybe a dozen or so Exordicans were all that was necessary to work on this task.
The robotic probes would have the investigation of life as a priority. They probably landed on earth, searching for specimens to take back to the science ship for an examination which most definitely included dissection and other biological tests. Humans, captured at lonely spots on the planet devoid of witnesses, anaesthetised and taken by a soulless metallic probe through the solar system to a waiting scientific ship, experimented on, physical potential evaluated, mental qualities noted, killing methods analysed, dissected alive and dead, every possible factor examined: this in all possibility was the fate of hundreds of abducted earth people. Both sexes, all ages, all ethnic groups: no variety overlooked in the Exordican quest to learn as much as possible about life on earth. Species everywhere collected and disseminated. All threats quantified and potential for future use estimated. This is what would happen when beings from the asteroid ship first encountered another life form. The programme could take one hundred years, possibly a lot longer, but in order to know in precise detail what they were up against, the Exordicans literally left no stone unturned.
What did earth people have to say about all this? The answer: absolutely nothing because they wouldn't know. There may have been the odd witness to strange events, abductions, whatever, but living in days when religion was dominant in most affairs, relating an event could lead to burning at the stake especially if the witness was a woman who was subsequently proclaimed as a witch. Also, with little registration and forms of identification existing for most of the people at that time, someone who disappeared or went missing affected only a small circle of people. To the country as a whole, this meant nothing, arousing no suspicions. Even if someone wished to report a missing person, authoritative bodies capable of doing anything concrete didn't exist.
The Exordicans, examining earth with their robotic probes got away with murder. To them, of course, there was no question of crime involved: it was simply a scientific inquiry to ascertain the usefulness of earth life for their future plans. I suppose it's all a matter of perception. How many people would have qualms about fishing, hunting or even eating a hamburger?
The next phase for the Exordicans was to go themselves. Probably very few were chosen for this task; a select group, physically acclimatised by building up muscles through a training programme, they would spend all their lives, from initial—probably, in a rotating habitation chamber gradually making them more able to withstand planetary gravity. Visitations to earth made with fusion powered small ships, they were able to come and go virtually at will, making their observations, observing the long term behaviour patterns of humans.
Over what was, from their perceptions, a very short time, development on earth moved rapidly from being a culture based on farming and primitive industry to a society entering the space age. For the first time in their history, mankind left the planet to land on their natural satellite, the moon. Atomic bombs were detonated, huge world wars were fought and people died in their millions. These events had a parallel in Exordium's history. Realising that changes were taking place rather quickly, they decided to step up their programme to depart as soon as practically possible.
What were the small ships like and how were they operated? This will be discussed later but, sufficient to say, they would probably be fast. Following what we've already discovered about their psychology, Exordicans approaching a live planet, so to speak, would be ultra cautious. They certainly wouldn't—fly up and down Madison Avenue on a Friday afternoon, land in an Olympic stadium during the 1500m final or even hover over a supermarket to find out the bargains of the week. Their super—cautious nature would dictate the minimum of contact and the minimum of visibility; anything other than what was specified in their objectives couldn't be permitted.
The not allowed list would include: contact with humans for no other reason than curiosity; sightings deemed as unnecessary; close encounters of the first, second or any other kind except by stealth! Earth people, largely unaware of their existence, would spend their lives in blissful ignorance of what was going on round about them. But, it wouldn't be easy.
Earth now has the ability to track objects anywhere in its vicinity. Resulting from the cold war where early detection of missiles was absolutely essential, a radar network powerful enough to detect an object the size of a soccer ball envelopes over most of the planet. Combined with this, civil aviation is widespread over the globe. Air travel has never been so popular. All planes are detected on radar, wherever they go, with unidentified objects easy to see. Of course, there are things like flocks
of geese, migrating birds, stray weather balloons by the hundred and odd reflections and echoes. The high safety standard of air traffic control around the world testifies to the fact that stray objects don't often cause a problem. The fact that we are still here, not blown to pieces in a nuclear war, shows that the worldwide radar systems must have been effective. Of course, rumours abound concerning close run things but they obviously weren't close enough.
Together with the radar networks, we have satellite-tracking systems. These are able to follow the hundreds of active satellites in orbit around the earth but more impressive than this is the attempt to track space junk. This is everywhere. It's been a growing problem since 1957 when the first satellite was launched. Essentially, space junk is anything of a useless nature found in orbit around the earth, ranging from spent rocket stages, defunct satellites, waste from manned fights including articles like canisters, tools and even a glove. Knowing where this junk is located is important because collisions with new satellites could be expensive and collisions with astronauts even more so. Detected by powerful optical devices, about ten thousand pieces of junk are catalogued. It's a nightmare of a task but it has to be carried out. New objects from elsewhere in the solar system would be detected without difficulty especially if they were large enough to house several beings.
Further to this, satellites in orbit are employed to photograph the surface of the earth for weather, earth resources, ice flows and all manner of environmental tasks. Since the beginning of the cold war, very powerful spy satellites with the capability of photographing a vehicle on the surface have been commonplace. Although the cold war has now ostensibly ceased, the satellites are still there and their abilities have increased. Optical detection takes place not just in visible light but in infrared too so objects can even be tracked in darkness.
Alien Psychology Page 10