by Dale Brown
“Roger that, sir.” The electronic display behind Wilhelm flared to life, showing a map of the border region between northern Iraq and southeast Turkey. “They’ve increased their Jandarma border forces over the past year or so, including special ops battalions, along with a few more aviation units, to help deal with the PKK cross-border incursions. They’ve sent a few regular army units to the southwest as well, perhaps one or two brigades.”
“Much bigger than normal deployments, I assume?” the vice president asked.
“Substantially bigger, sir, even considering the recent PKK terror attacks at Diyarbakir,” Wilhelm replied.
“And what do we have on this side?”
“Together with the Iraqis, sir—about a third of their force, and a fraction of the air forces,” Wilhelm replied. “The biggest threat is their tactical air forces in the region. Diyarbakir is home to Second Tactical Air Forces Command, responsible for the defense of the Syria, Iraq, and Iran border regions. They have two wings of F-16 fighter-bombers and one wing of F-4E Phantom fighter-bombers, plus one new wing of A-10 Thunderbolt Two close air support aircraft and one wing of F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bombers, recently acquired from the United States as surplus equipment.”
“Surplus F-15s—that’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard,” the vice president said, shaking his head. “Aren’t they still undefeated in combat?”
“I believe so, sir,” Wilhelm said. “But with the recent drawdown of U.S. Air Force fighters in favor of Navy and Marines carrier-based tactical fighters, a lot of good Americans weapons came on the export market.”
“I know, I know—I fought hard to stop the outflow of such high-tech stuff,” Phoenix said. “But President Gardner is a real military expert as well as a big supporter of the Navy, and Congress was solidly behind his transformation and modernization plans. The Air Force got hosed, and countries like Turkey are reaping the benefits. If we can’t convert F-22s for carrier ops, Turkey is likely to get Raptors, too. Okay, soapbox over. Please continue, Colonel. What other threats are you facing?”
“Their larger antiaircraft systems such as the Patriot missile, large-caliber radar-guided triple-A, and British Rapier surface-to-air missiles are arrayed against Iran and Syria,” Wilhelm went on. “We can expect them to move some systems farther west, but of course Iraq is not a threat from the air, so I think they’ll keep their SAMs deployed against Iran and Syria. Smaller guns and shoulder-fired Stinger missiles can be encountered anywhere and are widely deployed in armored battalions.
“The Turkish Jandarma paramilitary forces deploy several special operations battalions, mostly to hunt down and destroy PKK insurgent and terror units. They get a lot of good training, and we consider them to be equivalent to a Marine recon unit—light, fast, mobile, and deadly.”
“Their commander, General Besir Ozek, was badly hurt in the last big PKK attack in Diyarbakir,” Patrick added, “but he’s apparently up and around and directing his forces in hunt-and-kill operations throughout the border regions. He’s undoubtedly the one who executed the rocket attack on Zakhu.”
“I definitely need to have a talk with him,” the vice president said. “So, Colonel, what’s your explanation for all this activity?”
“It’s not my job to analyze, sir,” Wilhelm said, “but they’re gearing up for an offensive against the PKK. They’re backing up the Jandarma with regular military forces in a show of force. The PKK will scatter and keep their heads down; the Turks will hit a few bases, and then everything will go back to relative normalcy. The PKK’s been doing this for over thirty years—Turkey can’t stop them.”
“Sending in the regular military—that’s something they haven’t done before,” Phoenix observed. He glanced at Patrick. “General, you are suddenly quiet.” He looked back at Wilhelm. “There appears to be disagreement here. Colonel?”
“Sir, General McLanahan is of the opinion that this buildup of Turkish forces in this region is a prelude to a full-scale invasion of Iraq.”
“An invasion of Iraq?” Phoenix exclaimed. “I know they’ve done a lot of cross-border raids over the years, but why a full invasion, General?”
“Sir, it’s exactly because they have done a lot of raids, and they haven’t succeeded in stopping or even slowing the number of PKK attacks, that will prompt them to stage an all-out assault on the PKK in Iraq—not just the strongholds, training bases, and supply dumps along the border, but on the Kurdish leadership themselves. I think they’ll want to crush the PKK problem in one lightning thrust and kill as many as they can before American and international pressure forces them to withdraw.”
“Colonel?”
“The Turks simply don’t have the manpower, sir,” Wilhelm said. “We’re talking about an operation similar in scope to Desert Storm—two hundred and fifty thousand troops, minimum. The Turkish army is approximately four hundred thousand total, mostly conscripts. They would need to commit one-third of their regular armed forces plus another one-half of their reserves for this one operation. That would take months and billions of dollars. The Turkish army is simply not an expeditionary force—they’re built for anti-insurgent operations and self-defense, not for invading other countries.”
“General?”
“The Turks would be fighting from their own soil and fighting for self-preservation and national pride,” Patrick said. “If they committed half of their regular and reserve forces, they’d have close to half a million troops available, and they have a very large pool of trained veterans to use. I see no reason why they wouldn’t order a full mobilization of all forces for a chance to destroy the PKK once and for all.
“But the new game-changing factor in play here is the Turkish air force,” Patrick went on. “In years past, the Turkish military was mostly an internal counterinsurgency force with a secondary role as a NATO trip wire against the Soviet Union. Its navy is good but it’s tasked mostly for defending the Bosporus and Dardanelles and patrolling the Aegean Sea. The air force was relatively small because it relied on the U.S. Air Force for support.
“But in just the past two years that’s changed, and now Turkey has the largest air force in Europe except for Russia. They’ve been buying a lot more than surplus F-15s, sir—they bought all sorts of surplus noncarrier qualified attack aircraft, including the A-10 Thunderbolt tactical bombers, AC-130 Spectre gunships, and Apache gunship helicopters, along with weapons such as Patriot surface-to-air missiles, AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, and Maverick and Hellfire precision-guided air-to-ground missiles. They license-build F-16 fighters right in Turkey; they have as many F-16 squadrons available for action as we did in Desert Storm, and they’ll all be fighting right from home. And I wouldn’t discount their air defenses so easily: they can move their Patriots and Rapiers to oppose any action from us very easily.”
Vice President Phoenix thought for a moment, and then nodded to both men. “You both make convincing arguments,” he said, “but I’m inclined to agree with Colonel Wilhelm.” Phoenix eyed Patrick warily, as if waiting for an argument, but Patrick kept silent. “I find it very hard to believe that—”
At that moment a phone buzzed, and it was as if a Klaxon had gone off—everyone knew that no phone calls would have been allowed during this briefing unless it was extremely urgent. Weatherly picked up the phone…and moments later, his expression made everyone in the room take notice.
Weatherly went over to a computer monitor nearby, read a dispatch silently with a quivering lip, then said, “Top-priority message from division, sir. The State Department has notified us that the president of Turkey may announce a state of emergency.”
“Crap, I was afraid something like that might happen,” Phoenix said. “We may not get a chance to meet with the Turks to investigate the shelling. Colonel, I’ll need to speak with the White House.”
“I can set that up right away, sir.” Wilhelm nodded to Weatherly, who immediately got on the phone to the communications officer.
“I’ll get the briefin
gs from the ambassador, the Iraqis, and the Turks, but my recommendation to the president will be to step up border monitoring.” The vice president turned to Patrick. “I still can’t believe Turkey would invade Iraq with three thousand U.S. troops in the way,” he said, “but obviously things are changing fast, and we’ll need to get some eyes up there. I assume that’s what your pregnant stealth bomber is for, General?”
“Yes, sir.”
“Then I’d get it ready to go,” Phoenix said as Wilhelm motioned to him that his link to the White House was ready, “because I think we’ll need it…soon. Very soon.” Weatherly motioned for him that his communications setup was ready, and he and the vice president departed.
Patrick hung back with Wilhelm as everyone else filed out of the conference room. “So, what do you have in mind, General?” Wilhelm asked. “Plan on sending your pregnant stealth bomber up over Turkey this time instead of just over our sector? That’ll really calm everyone’s nerves around here.”
“I’m not going to send the Loser over Turkey, Colonel, but I’m not going to let the Turks relax, either,” Patrick said. “I want to see what the Turks have in mind if any aircraft strays too close to the border. We know they’ll hit back hard against any PKK land incursions. What will they do if it starts to look like the United States is poking around on their side of the border too much with aircraft?”
“Think that’s smart, McLanahan? That could ratchet up the tension around here even more.”
“We’ve got a lot of dead troopers in your hangar out there, Colonel,” Patrick reminded him. “I want to be sure the Turks know that we are very, very angry at them right now.”
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY
THE NEXT EVENING
“Contact, designating target bravo!” the MIM-104 Patriot tactical control officer shouted in Turkish. “I think it’s the same one that’s been popping in and out on us.” The Patriot AN/MPQ-53 radar system belonging to the Turkish army had identified an aircraft and displayed the target to the operators in the Patriot Engagement Control System. The tactical control officer quickly determined that the target was right on the border between Iraq and Turkey, but because it was not in contact with Turkish air traffic controllers and not transmitting any transponder beacon codes, it was considered in violation of the thirty-mile protected Turkish air defense buffer zone; it was too low to be on approach to any airfields in the region and was far off any established civil airways. “Sir, recommend designating target bravo as hostile.”
The tactical director checked the radar display—no doubt about it. “I concur,” he said. “Designate target bravo as hostile, broadcast warning messages on all civil and military emergency and air traffic control frequencies, and stand by to engage.” The tactical director picked up a secure telephone, linked by microwave directly to the sector air defense commander, Fourth Border Defense Regiment, in Diyarbakir. “Kamyan, Kamyan, this is Ustura, I have designated target bravo as hostile, standing by.”
“Ustura, is this the same pop-up target you’ve been watching for the past two hours?” the sector commander inquired.
“We think so, sir,” the tactical director said. “It’s almost certainly a UAV in a reconnaissance orbit, based on speed and flight path. We couldn’t get a firm altitude readout before, but it appears he’s climbed to a higher altitude to get a deeper look north.”
“Civilian traffic?”
“We’ve been broadcasting warning messages every time the target has popped up, and we’re broadcasting now on all civil and military emergency and air traffic control frequencies. No responses at all. Unless the pilot completely switched off his radios, it’s a hostile.”
“I concur,” the air defense commander said. He knew that some air defense sectors in busier areas used multicolored lasers to visually warn pilots away from restricted airspace, but he didn’t have that courtesy—nor did he really care to use it even if he had it. Any innocent pilot stupid enough to fly in this area during this breakout of hostilities deserved to get his ass shot down. “Stand by.” To his communications officer he ordered, “Get me Second Regiment at Nahla, and Ankara.”
“Second Regiment on the line, sir, Major Sabasti.”
That was quick, the sector commander thought—normally direct calls to the American Command and Control Center were filtered and redirected several times before connecting, and it took a few minutes. “Sabasti, this is Kamyan. We don’t show any American air missions in the buffer zone scheduled for tonight. Can you confirm an American flight along the border?”
“I’m looking at the sector map now, sir,” the liaison officer responded, “and the only aircraft in the buffer zone has been precoordinated with you, authorization number Kilo-Juliet-two-three-two-one, operating inside area Peynir.”
“We’re looking at a low-altitude aircraft that pops up and down out of radar coverage. It’s not an American or Iraqi aircraft?”
“I’m showing three American and one Iraqi reconnaissance plane airborne, sir, but only one is in the buffer zone.”
“What is it?”
“Its call sign is Guppy Two-Two, an American reconnaissance aircraft operated by private security contractors.” He read off the aircraft’s coordinates and location of its orbit box—it was exactly as earlier coordinated, inside the Peynir buffer zone but forty miles from the pop-up target.
“What kind of plane is it, Major?”
“I’m sorry, sir, but you know I can’t tell you that. I have verified it with my own eyes and I know it’s an unarmed reconnaissance plane.”
“Well, Major, maybe you can tell me what it’s not,” the sector commander said.
“Sir…”
“Who the hell do you work for, Major—the Americans, or Turkey?”
“Excuse me, sir,” a voice interjected. “This is an American interpreter. I work for Mr. Kris Thompson, Thompson Security, Second Regiment, Allied Air Base Nahla, Iraq.”
“I know who the hell you are and where you are located,” the sector commander snapped. “Are you monitoring my radio messages?”
“Mr. Thompson says that the Status of Forces agreement between the United States, Iraq, and Turkey allows monitoring of routine and emergency radio traffic between military units party to the agreement,” the interpreter said. “He says you may verify this with your foreign ministry if necessary.”
“I am well aware of the agreement.”
“Yes, sir. Mr. Thompson wants me to tell you that specific information regarding the systems involved in operations inside Iraq is not permitted to be revealed except in accordance with the Status of Forces agreement. The agreement allows an observer to view the aircraft that will be used and to monitor it throughout its mission, but he may not reveal any other details.”
“Thompson, I am about to shoot down an unidentified aircraft violating the Turkish airspace buffer zone,” the sector commander said. “I wanted to get more information to be sure I was not attacking an American or Iraqi aircraft. If you wish to play word games or shake the Status of Forces agreement in my face instead of assisting me in validating this target’s identity, so be it. Major Sabasti.”
“Sir!”
“Inform the Americans that we are tracking an unknown aircraft in the buffer zone and that we consider it hostile,” the sector commander said in Turkish. “I recommend to them that all allied aircraft and ground patrols stay well clear and the reconnaissance aircraft may want to vacate the patrol box.”
“I’ll pass the word along immediately, sir.”
“Very well.” The sector commander terminated the connection with an angry stab. “Is Ankara on the line yet?” he thundered.
“Standing by, sir.”
“This is Mat,” a voice responded. The sector commander knew that Mat, Turkish for “checkmate,” was the operations officer for the military chief of staff. “We are monitoring your radar contact, and the liaison officer at Nahla has messaged us saying that you contacted them for coordination and identification and the
y say it is not one of theirs. Recommendation?”
“Engage immediately, sir.”
“Stand by.” Those two damned dreaded words…but moments later: “We concur, Kamyan. Engage as directed. Out.”
“Kamyan copies, engaged as directed. Kamyan out.” The sector commander changed to his tactical channel: “Ustura, this is Kamyan, engage as directed.”
“Ustura copies, engage as directed. Ustura out.” The tactical director hung up the phone. “We’ve been ordered to engage as directed,” he announced. “Any change in target path or altitude? Any response to our broadcasts?”
“No, sir.”
“Very well. Engage.”
“I copy ‘engage.’” The tactical control officer reached up, lifted a red-colored cover, and pressed a large red button, which activated a Klaxon throughout the four Patriot line batteries spread throughout southeastern Turkey. Each line battery consisted of four Patriot platoons, each with one Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) launcher with sixteen missiles, plus another sixteen missiles ready to load. “Engage.”
“I copy ‘engage,’” the Tactical Control Assistant repeated. He checked the target’s location with the battalion’s deployed Patriot batteries, picked the closest one to the hostile, and punched the communications button to that battery. “Ustura Two, Ustura Two, this is Ustura, operate, operate, operate.”
“Two copies ‘operate.’” There was a brief pause, and then the second firing battery’s status report changed from “standby” to “operate,” meaning the battery’s missiles were ready to fire. “Second Battery reports status is ‘operate,’ ready to engage.”
“Acknowledged.” The tactical control officer kept on mashing the warning horn as he watched his computer readouts. The attack was all controlled by computer from here on out—the humans could do nothing but shut it off if they desired. Moments later, the Engagement Control Computer reported that it had designated one of the platoons located west of the mountain town of Beytussebap to engage. “Fifth Platoon has been activated…missile one away.” Four seconds later: “Missile two away. Radar is active.”