by Andrew Watts
Natesh nodded. “Yes.” He looked around the room. The computers were bulkier than what he was used to. Military grade, he imagined. There was another steel door at the far side of the room. It had a keypad next to it, just like the one on the outside of the building.
Natesh asked, “Does my code work on that door?”
“No,” replied Lena.
“What’s back there?”
“My living quarters.”
“You think you’ll need a digital lock on your living quarters?”
She said, “We had better head to class.”
They rose and walked outside, Lena shutting the door as they left. Once again they walked next to each other on the gravel path. This time they headed to the second largest of the buildings, the Classroom.
The Classroom sat atop a small hill which overlooked the runway on one side. A pristine beach of dark sand lay just outside its walls on the other. Breaking waves intermingled with the sounds of island gulls hovering overhead.
It was almost 8 a.m. Natesh just had to get through this presentation. Then he would have the momentum to get through this first day. Then he would get through the first week. And then…well, there was a lot of change ahead. Natesh tried not to think of how important his part might be.
As if she could hear his thoughts, Lena said, “Just breathe. We briefed them yesterday on the big picture. They understand what’s at stake here. Remember that. Everyone here wants to help defend the United States. You are a talented man. And you are performing a great service.” She put her hand on the muscle between his neck and shoulder, giving it a gentle squeeze. “I know you’re absorbing a lot right now. We all are. But you need to relax, Natesh. All of this will work out.”
They stood outside the double glass doors of the Classroom building.
“Thanks,” he replied. There was nothing like a few choice words from an attractive woman to prop up the ego of a doubting man. What was more, Lena seemed to have a gift for handling people.
Moments later, Natesh stood on the auditorium stage, studying the faces in his audience. His nerves calmed as he shifted into business mode. About half of the seats were filled. The others were funneling in. Most people sipped steaming coffee from Styrofoam cups.
The loud drone of aircraft engines caused most people to look out the expansive windows. A large multiengine propeller plane rolled down the runway. Every other day, that plane was supposed to be bringing in supplies from who knows where. Lena and the Major had told them about it last night during their indoctrination. This was the first drop-off.
They had been told about all of the buildings on the island. They were told where to go to get food and to wash their clothes. There was very little infrastructure. Only a handful of Asian maids and cooks lived in back of the cafeteria. None spoke English, not that it mattered. The Major had warned against speaking with them. They were cleared to work here, but no conversations were to go on within earshot of any of them.
There were strict security rules to follow. Lena had explained the rules clearly. Don’t go outside the boundaries of the base fence. It circled the runway and the buildings, but split the island in half, with nothing but mountainous jungle on the other side. Don’t communicate off the island. Natesh wasn’t sure how anyone could have pulled that off anyway. It wasn’t like they had a satellite phone. Lena told them that if anyone had any problems, medical or otherwise, they were to see her as soon as possible. No one had raised any concerns.
Natesh watched the runway scene through the window as men in protective eyewear and helmets jumped down from a retractable ramp on the rear of the aircraft. The men rolled off crates near one of the taxiways and then immediately hopped back on board. Within minutes, the plane had taken off. As soon as it had, the Asian stewards that cooked their food and made up their rooms each day scurried out to the crates and brought them back to the cafeteria building. What was this place?
Everyone was seated. Natesh walked over and stood up in front of the podium. He looked at his watch. 8:01 a.m.
“Good morning. I hope you all have been able to sleep better than I have.”
He got a few tired smiles in reply.
“Well…at least we all know why we’re here. Let’s do the best we possibly can at this. The better job we do at planning out possible Chinese attack strategies and tactics, the better our nation will be able to prepare.”
“Amen,” someone said in the back. There were several nods of approval at that. Most of the group had progressed from the frantic denials and arguments of last night into a patriotic eagerness to contribute.
“So…” He looked at everyone in the room. He saw Lena in the back of the room, standing by the window. She had an encouraging smile and gave him a polite nod, as if to prod him along.
Natesh cleared his throat. He said, “Let’s look at the facts. We started to examine some of the numbers yesterday. On everyone’s desk is an official report that compares China and the US. It’s a threat assessment conducted jointly by the CIA and the Pentagon last year that essentially does what we’re going to do today. It’s a SWOT analysis. For those of you that aren’t familiar, SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. But what took the CIA and the Pentagon over six months to conclude, I can sum up in two sentences. One: China is really big. And two: the United States has a military technology advantage. Let me ask you all a question. If you all have ten men and I have just one…but my one has a gun whereas your ten men have swords…how would you attack me?”
“I’d rush you,” said a young man in the front row.
“Alright. So, rushing the man with a gun, that would be an example of a tactic we could use. We, if we were the Chinese, could gather as many troops as possible and start ramping up production of military assets. We could start massing troops on US beachheads and overcome the American military with overwhelming force. But I can tell you from my experience in business strategy that this may not be the best tactic to use if it is not accompanied by other strong initiatives. Our strategy must also take into account our long-term goals. Our strategy will help us to identify the best tactical options. We can then make a series of tactical choices with our end goal in mind.”
Natesh looked out at his audience. Several of the military men had looks of skepticism on their faces. They saw a young Indian man trying to teach them about military strategy. That was fine with Natesh. Let them think what they want. He clenched his jaw a few times and focused on Lena, standing in the back of the room. She gave him a thumbs up. She really was a nice coach.
Natesh’s voice grew stronger. “What can China do better than the United States? And when you think about this, I want you all to keep thinking about the stated objectives that our spy uncovered. We went over them last night. Objective One: Capture and Permanently Occupy the United States. What are the implications of this? How does that limit China’s tactical choices?”
Brooke said, “If China wants long-term control over US territory, then they would likely want to do minimal damage. You don’t want to dent up a car before you steal it. That means they’d use non-nuclear tactics to preserve infrastructure.”
David raised his hand. “If they want to be in the US long-term, that also means that they have got to plan to win hearts and minds. Kind of like what we tried to do in Iraq.”
Natesh pointed at them both. “Exactly. Now you’re thinking about this the right way. What advantages does China have that they could leverage?”
People started to shout out ideas. The energy of a high-participation classroom took hold. In a strange way, people were into this. He let the group conversation keep going for a while. He wanted everyone to get comfortable contributing and talking openly. There was a good discussion of several different ways China could capitalize on their size and resources.
After about twenty minutes, Natesh looked at his watch and said, “Okay. We’re doing great. Let’s recap. We talked about Chinese advantages: size, first-mover advantage, surpr
ise, industrial capacity, and quantity of certain assets. We discussed how the US is more technologically advanced with most weapons. I heard someone mention that this could be an interesting route to explore as an opportunity for China instead of a weakness. In the business world, this is a valuable way to unlock competitive advantage. If we really can turn a perceived strength into a weakness, that should be a major part of our focus. Let’s flag that one and come back to it. Okay, so pulling these first few ideas all together: How does China execute a surprise attack that allows them to maximize first-mover advantage, take out America’s technological advantage, and leverage the numerical advantage of their troops? Secondly, how does China keep hold of the United States territory long-term without destroying needed infrastructure or creating a resistance movement? Does everyone agree that these were a few of our initial killer questions?”
People gave cordial yet uneasy nods. It was hard to feel patriotic about planning your nation’s invasion.
“Okay, let’s take a five-minute break.”
The group got up and scattered to bathrooms and stocked refrigerators. Natesh uncapped a plastic water bottle and took a swig as he went back to the podium. Bill and David were there waiting for him.
David said, “Hey, nice job so far.”
“Thank you, David. I appreciate the participation.”
Bill said, “Yep, I think this group should do a fine job at this. I just wish I’d known it was going to take this long.”
“Oh? You got somewhere to be?” David said.
Bill looked uncomfortable, like he hadn’t meant to share. “Well. The truth is, Allison’s been sick.”
David looked at Natesh and then back to Bill. “Oh. Hey, I’m sorry to hear that.”
Bill said, “Ah, it’s alright. It’s been going on for a few years now, on and off. I agreed with my boss that I would go on this trip just a few days ago, before we knew her results. But just a few hours before I left, we found out. I told her I would cancel the trip, but she said the chemo wouldn’t start until I got back.”
Natesh looked down at the floor. He was still in his twenties. He’d never known anyone with cancer. But he knew what it was like to lose a family member. “Bill, I am so sorry. Please let me know if there’s anything I can do.”
Bill looked up as if he’d snapped out of a spell. “Oh, ah, thanks there, Natesh. Naw, you don’t worry about it. Sorry to bring it up. It’s just been on my mind. Let’s just get back to work and get this done right.” David and Bill walked up the stairs of the stadium-seating classroom as Natesh rechecked his notes.
After everyone sat back down, he began, “I was not always a California guy. I went to high school in the Big Apple. I remember one field trip we took when I was seventeen. We went to see this professional pickpocket, if you can believe it. This guy had learned the trade from his family but he didn’t want to be a criminal himself. So he decided to teach seminars and do shows about being a pickpocket. He would call people up on stage and say, “Hi, my name is so and so, and in less than three minutes, I’m going to take your wallet.” And the thing is…he would do just that. It was unbelievable to see. And the audience members who were up there on the stage would have no idea it had happened until after the fact.”
Natesh was getting comfortable now. He walked down from the stage and up the stairs, the way Lena had yesterday when they had all arrived. There she was, still in the back of the class. She wasn’t looking at him now. Natesh saw her watching people and then writing notes in her book.
“This fellow was a professional pickpocket. But not the kind that made a living taking people’s money. This was a man who had learned how to do all of those things on the street, but now lived an honest life by performing for audiences and showing people how it was done. He was incredible. I saw him take a man’s wallet, then his cell phone, and even his wristwatch without him knowing it. But that wasn’t all. He actually took the man’s eyeglasses off his face. The man’s eyeglasses. I know it’s hard to believe, and I wouldn’t believe it if I hadn’t seen it myself.”
Natesh gave a wide grin. “It was incredible. My friends, I’ve worked on strategy for a number of years. I realize that I’m younger than the majority of you here. But in studying our situation for the past day and comparing it to various past scenarios in the private sector, I think this may be one of the potential routes we can take. We need to identify how we can take America’s glasses right off its face.”
Bill said, “You want the Chinese to become pickpockets?”
Still smiling, Natesh responded, “Precisely that. You see, the pickpocket told us all how he was able to do what he did. He told us how much practice it had taken him to perfect the sleight-of-hand moves to take the various articles from people without them realizing it. But that was less than half the trick. It all has to do with cognitive science. Our brains can only process so much information at once. So if they get too much information all at the same time, they are forced to prioritize. Through the power of suggestion, the pickpocket directs their attention to various other things. The mind must prioritize information. The pickpocket simply helps suggest a priority order that is advantageous to his agenda. If he wants to take your wallet, he calls attention to your wristwatch. While you’re looking at your wristwatch on your left hand, he’ll talk to you, pat you on the shoulder with one hand, and take your wallet with the other. He moves in close so there is less time to react. Before you know it, there are just too many activities happening at once to process them all efficiently.”
David said, “So you think China should launch a bunch of distractions?”
Natesh said, “Again, we’re here to plan the attack. I think that the people we have in this room can help us to identify and plan enough high-priority decoy events that the United States won’t see the eyeglasses taken off their face.”
Brooke raised her hand and said, “Natesh, I appreciate a good story. But having worked in signals intelligence collections, we do a pretty good job of monitoring China. How do you propose that—”
“I’m not saying that you don’t, Brooke. But I think we need to come up with ideas for how to create a distraction that would effectively require the majority of the United States’ time and resources to be dedicated to it. Better yet, let’s think of a few distractions. Tie them together. But don’t tie them to China. So when the United States has its eye on its wallet and cell phone, the glasses become overlooked.”
“And how do you do that?” asked Brooke.
“Start a separate war. Make the US go to war with another country so they’re spread thin and absorbed in it,” said David. “That’s what I’d do.”
Henry said, “Okay, what country can we pick a fight with that would cause us to mobilize the most military assets? How about Canada? I hate those guys and their polite manners.”
“Iran? North Korea? Russia?” said Brooke. Others chimed in with their own opinions. The group chatted about it and remained reasonable in their arguments for each nation.
“It’s gotta be Iran,” said Major Combs. “If the US went to war with Russia or North Korea, we’d be in a better location to fight back against China. I wouldn’t want that if I was them.”
“That’s true. You’d want the United States to be distracted and also in a bad position to respond,” said someone from the front of the room.
“So how do we start a war with Iran? One that doesn’t get the US pissed off at China for starting?” asked David.
Natesh said, “Okay. Here’s the way we’ll do this. You all have plastic buckets with sticky notes and markers near your desks. If you don’t, share with the people next to you. Write down a few ways that you think we could plausibly start an Iranian-US war. Again, we are China for this exercise. How can China encourage the start of a US-Iranian war without implicating themselves? Think about your own areas of expertise and use that if it applies. Everyone write it down on your piece of paper. Write down a few ideas if you have them. Then bring them up to these
whiteboards behind me and stick them there. Brooke, would you mind helping me? We’ll bucket these ideas into categories once they’re all up here. Okay, you’ve all got ten minutes.”
Soon the whiteboards at the front of the classroom were filled. Brooke wrote down different categories with her dry erase marker and stuck the notes in straight columns under each one. Natesh thought to himself how familiar this scene felt. It was the same exercise he had done a million times for corporate America. In the past, Natesh had filled whiteboards with things like consumer insights, software advantages, hardware designs attributes, and countless other service- or product-oriented lists. He looked at the rainbows of sticky notes on the board and thought to himself how innocent it looked. And how within a year, one of these ideas might very well come to fruition and begin soaking the world in blood.
The session lasted all day. During lunchtime, the group ate sandwiches at their desks and went over Chinese military capabilities and strategy. The afternoon was a share session. Various members of the team provided amplifying information from their respective fields. Brooke disclosed what she knew about the operation in Shanghai. An expert on Asian Pacific politics and military gave his opinion on the Chinese military buildup over the past decade. Henry said that several of the telecom companies he worked with had reportedly been hacked in the past few months. Word on the street was that the Chinese were testing their security.