by Mark Greaney
“Volodin calculated that we would do nothing when he attacked Ukraine, so he attacked Ukraine. We did not do nothing, so he doesn’t own all of Ukraine. But we did not do enough, so today a large swath of that country is nothing more than a Russian puppet state.
“We’ve lost eastern Ukraine, but its loss illustrates something important. In the eyes of Valeri Volodin, Russia’s security depends on the insecurity of its neighbors.
“Now he sees a new threat: a Baltic region allied with NATO, increasing their ability to meet their energy needs without dependence on Russia. He sees Lithuania specifically as a successful and independent nation that serves both as demonstration of the failures of his policy and a potential corridor to his province on the Baltic Sea. He needs a victory. It will help Russia’s economy, bolster the Kremlin’s power, and take the pressure off him after his string of losses.
“Russia’s hybrid warfare against Lithuania is purposefully ambiguous. As long as Russia’s aggression stays below a certain threshold, there will be enough pundits and pacifists in the West assuring everyone that the real threats are not in Russia, but in the West. They will continue saying this until the facts on the ground are so utterly different from what they assert that the world will have no choice but to come to the conclusion that the pacifists were wrong, but by then it will be too late to do anything about it.
“People speak of hybrid warfare like it is a new phenomenon. But there is nothing new about it. Valeri Volodin’s Kremlin is executing the time-tested battle plan of using the full spectrum of power. In the United States, we refer to this under the acronym DIME. Diplomacy, information, military, and economics.
“DIME starts with diplomacy. Volodin’s Russia is pulling away from all international norms, violating treaties, making pacts with our enemies to increase Russia’s power at the expense of democracies, world bodies, agreed-upon standards of behavior. They’ve left the European Court of Human Rights, and they have breached every agreement and security assurance they have given in the past twenty years.
“He is diplomatically isolated because of the hostility of his regime, but his diplomats continue to aggressively pursue Russia’s policy in whatever venues remain open to them.
“On the intelligence front, he is swinging for the fences. For one, I believe FSB has a worldwide operation to bolster energy prices. If he can get oil and gas prices to rise, this will augment his power, both at home and abroad. The assassination of the prosecutor in Venezuela going after corrupt oil officials, the killing of the Saudi deputy minister of petroleum and mineral resources, the oil rig attack in Nigeria. Plus the attack on the LNG facility in Lithuania. It is no coincidence that all these events have happened in the past few weeks, and it is also no coincidence that they all have the effect of benefiting Volodin. We’ve seen gas prices shoot up fourteen percent in the past month, and crude prices a shade over nine percent.
“On the military front . . . well, we all saw what happened yesterday with the crash of SA44. Volodin is blatantly positioning an invasion force near his neighbors, threatening ships in the Baltic and filling the skies with military aircraft, with catastrophic results. He’s doing all this because he is gambling that the West isn’t committed to the fight against him, that we will allow him to absorb the Baltic back into his sphere of influence.
“It is on the last letter of DIME—economics—where we have seen his greatest failure. He began with this, and it was all he needed for a time. When oil and gas prices were high, Volodin used his energy companies, Gazprom and Gazprom Neft, as a weapon. But oil and gas prices have plummeted from last year’s highs, and Europe is an unfriendly market because Volodin has used Gazprom against you for so long that you found other sources of energy.
“The notion that energy only flows from East to West is outdated. Right now Western nations are supplying Ukraine, via Poland and Slovakia. The Nord Stream pipeline is up and running, and the Central Europeans are better off, because LNG going directly into Germany could be sent from Germany into Central Europe if Russia cuts them off again.
“At the height of the market Gazprom was worth three hundred sixty billion U.S. dollars. Now it is worth fifty billion. I will put it very simply. Gazprom’s business model is dead.
“Russia’s business model: using energy revenue to build the military, and using Europe’s need of energy as a way to threaten it . . . this model is also dead.”
Ryan took a sip of water before continuing. “So what is Volodin doing to reclaim his power? He has decided that if he can’t stay big, then he must make his adversary small. He is trying to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe, and to emasculate NATO by ripping away Lithuania, showing the weakness in the organization. He wants to turn NATO into nothing more than a piece of paper. If he accomplishes this he will give himself the strongest military power in Europe, and he will do it without a protracted war.
“Russia can’t win a protracted war, but it can harass, it can block, and it can terrorize. I ask you all to look around at the state of the world today. This is exactly what Russia is doing.
“President Volodin knows that many Western European nations take the stance that dialogue is preferable to confrontation. They talk in circles while they look at the chessboard, but they do not move any pieces. But the Baltic States are allies of America and NATO partners. If they are attacked and we do nothing, our friends will know the NATO they once respected has become an empty promise.
“Deterrence only works if Volodin believes the West will act. Right now he doesn’t believe that, so there is really no limit to what he might try to achieve. We, as an alliance, need to show the Russians our collective resolve.”
Ryan looked around the room slowly, taking his time. “How do we do that? What’s the solution to the crisis? Step one, recognize and come to terms with the fact Russia’s actions of the past year have changed European security forever, and we will not return to where we were before. The realization that a new normal is upon us is crucial if we are to take the bold steps necessary.
“Step two, more economic sanctions against the Russian elite. Thousands of Russia’s most prominent do their shopping in the West, their banking in the West, they send their children to school in the West. Increasing sanctions on the privileged and powerful would be easy for us and relatively harmless to us, but devastating for the decision makers in Russia.
“Step three . . . We call on NATO to immediately deploy the Rapid Deployable Corps into Poland. A decision in the next days could put substantial forces into the area within a week, and within a month the risk of an invasion from Russia would be greatly reduced.
“Step four, ladies and gentlemen, is the most urgent and most important of all. We call on NATO to immediately deploy the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force to Lithuania, positioning them on both the Kaliningrad and Belarusan borders. The VHRJTF could be moving within twenty-four hours, and they could be in position in seventy-two. While this force is no match for any real Russian attack, it could serve as a tripwire, and may cause President Valeri Volodin to pause, to reflect on the consequences of an attack. It would show him NATO was willing to fight for Lithuania.
“I am talking about a temporary NATO presence in Lithuania and Poland, not a permanent NATO base. As soon as the current crisis comes to an end, we will move to withdraw the rapid response units from Poland and Lithuania.
“I am under no illusions here. I fully expect Russia to react negatively to these proposals. They will respond to this move by us, and we will not like their response. But it is my fervent belief that the actions they are making now are a result of our inaction in the past, and we cannot let this continue.”
Ryan paused again and looked around the room. “Volodin does not have a better military, a better economy, or better ideas than the West. To date, Volodin has had an advantage over the free nations of the West in one valuable commodity.” Ryan held up his finger. �
�Just one.” After a pause for effect, he said, “Simply put, he has will. President Volodin has the will that we do not. And he has this in excess.”
Ryan said, “There is an impression in the West, even now after all that has taken place, that the existing security order in Europe is stable. There are rules by which nations live, and those rules ensure peace. And since peace is in everyone’s best interests, why would this ever change?
“Ladies and gentlemen, Russia is rewriting the rulebook right in front of us. They are not waiting for tomorrow. We should not, either.”
Jack Ryan sat down. The room was quiet after his speech, but these were never raucous affairs, so he hadn’t expected anyone to throw confetti.
After the meeting was adjourned, Ryan spoke privately for a few minutes with President Eglė Banytė and assured her he’d do everything in his power to support Lithuania. She thanked him, expressed her belief that the motion would be approved, and headed for the airport.
Ryan appreciated her positivity and her staunchly brave face.
But he wasn’t nearly so sure.
46
Terry Walker had sent his staff home today as soon as they arrived for work at eight a.m. He told them his new clients required a higher level of discretion, so he would attend to them alone. He paid his two locals in advance for three weeks, wished them a pleasant vacation, and watched them gleefully collect their things and shoot out the door. One woman actually cried with joy.
After Walker’s staff left, Kozlov and two of his men from Steel Securitas arrived and set up shop in the tiny lobby of the office. They carried pistols and they allowed the grips of their guns to show under their suit coats as they moved around near Walker, upping the intimidation factor and reducing the chance the young Australian might think about some sort of a double cross.
Walker spent the first hour of the morning looking over notes Limonov had prepared about how he wanted the exchange to be made. The transactions would be done in $8 million increments. As they needed to convert a daily total of $266 million from cash in various worldwide accounts into Bitcoin via the BlackHole hopper, and then sell the Bitcoin for U.S. dollars which Limonov would deposit into a new set of accounts, the two men had to make thirty-three separate transactions throughout the day.
At ten a.m., Limonov and Walker sat down next to each other in front of the terminal on the desk in Walker’s office, and they conducted their first trade of the morning. Walker did this sort of thing all day, every day; even the individual amounts of the trades weren’t out of the ordinary to him. The only major differences between today and any other day were the sheer number of trades he’d have to make for the same client, the armed men looming over him, and the fact that Kate and Noah were somewhere themselves under guard.
His hands shook through the entire first transaction. When he stepped away from the desk so Limonov could put in his account information to deposit the new, fully washed U.S. dollars, Walker put his hands against the wall to steady his legs, and he had to fight a wave of nausea.
Soon enough, Limonov called up from the desk with a big smile. “That’s it, Walker. One down. Nine hundred ninety-nine to go.” The Russian seemed positively beside himself with satisfaction.
Walker said, “Yeah, but only thirty-two more today.”
The process had been initiated, and soon fell into a repetitive rhythm. By initiating a new transaction every twelve minutes, the two men could transfer the planned $266 million worth of trades in a day. Each complete transaction took only three to five minutes from start to finish, so Walker spent the rest of the time staring at the wall while Limonov spoke with Kozlov in the other room.
After they finished the seventh trade of the day, Walker looked up and saw it was just after eleven. He stood to stretch his legs and announced, “I’m going to the toilet.”
Kozlov heard him from where he sat on the sofa in the lobby of the little office. As Walker passed him by, heading for the door, the Kremlin operative looked to the security man from Canada. In English he said, “You go with him. Search it.”
“Yes, sir.”
Walker and his armed guard walked down a short hallway and nodded to a local attorney who passed them on his way out of his office for the stairs, and then they came to the second-floor restroom. The Canadian opened the door and saw it was just a simple space with two urinals and two stalls along with a sink and a garbage can. There were no windows, but he quickly opened the stalls, found them empty, and then looked to Walker.
“You going to be long?”
“Heaps longer if you stand there looking at me, mate.”
The big man gave Walker an annoyed look, turned around, and stepped out the door. “I’m in the hall.”
Walker did his business and returned to the office with his guard following behind him.
• • •
At one p.m. a Steel Securitas man with a German accent entered the office and brought paper plates of rice and sausage for Limonov and Walker, bought from a corner restaurant, along with bottles of soda from the machine in the lobby of the office building. The two men continued to make the trades, even while they ate. Walker wasn’t in the mood to eat, but Limonov finished quickly and asked the armed security man to go out and grab coffee.
By now Walker had relaxed enough to stop shaking, and he found himself spending much of the time between the trades dispassionately answering Limonov’s constant questions about the technological aspects of BlackHole and the Bitcoin markets in general. The Russian seemed fascinated by it all, and genuinely impressed by the incredible intelligence of Terry Walker.
Walker, on the other hand, just wanted this Russian in his office to shut up and get on with it.
At four p.m. Walker again announced that he needed to use the toilet. The same Canadian security man escorted him down, opened the bathroom door, and looked inside. This time, both stalls were wide open and visible from the doorway, so the man just waved Walker in while he remained in the hall.
Walker entered the restroom, and as the door closed behind him he heard a click. He turned to find a man with gray hair locking the door.
The older man turned back to Walker. Softly he said, “Don’t make a sound, Terry. I’m here to help.”
• • •
John Clark looked carefully at Walker, gauging the man’s reaction. If he was going to call out to his guard he would likely do it in the first few seconds, so Clark knew he had to be ready to launch forward the five feet that separated them to stifle the man’s shouts. But Walker just stood there, a look of confusion on his face, along with incredibly bloodshot eyes, obviously from the fatigue and stress of the past day.
To Clark’s relief, Walker replied in a whisper. “Who are you?”
Clark said, “We know the Russians have your family.”
Walker’s whisper was delivered now almost as a shout. “Yeah, and they will kill them if they think I am talking to Americans! Get the fuck out of here before Popov finds you!”
“He won’t know I’m here. You need to trust me.”
“You are FBI?”
“No.”
“CIA?”
“Look, Mr. Walker,” Clark said. “We are experts at doing this sort of thing, all while remaining in the shadows. We know you are converting assets into Bitcoin for someone in the Kremlin. We also know you are doing it to protect your family.”
Walker cocked his head. “The Kremlin?”
“Yes.”
“You mean, like Volodin? The fucking psycho who runs Russia?”
“I was hoping you could tell us.”
Walker rubbed his eyes. “I knew it was a rich Russian, obviously. I just figured it was some sort of Mafia boss.”
“After a fashion,” Clark said.
“Popov, the tough one, acts like a gangster.”
“That would be Kozlov. He works for t
he Kremlin. Ex-FSB. A very bad man.”
Walker sat down on the toilet slowly. “And the other one? The finance guy?”
“Andrei Limonov. He’s moving money for a high-ranking Kremlin suit. We don’t know who, but it could be Volodin himself. How much money is involved?”
Walker put his head in his hands. “Eight billion. Dollars.”
Clark just said, “Wow.”
Walker said, “Popov will kill them. Noah and Kate. He will really do it, won’t he? If I don’t give him what he wants he’ll kill my wife and kid.”
Clark moved into the other stall and closed the door. Sat down on the next toilet, ready to lift his legs if the guard returned. He said, “I’m not going to lie to you, Terry. Even if you do exactly what they say, these aren’t the type to just say thanks at the end. They are not going to let you or your family go. You just know too much.”
Clark could hear Walker sobbing softly. “What the fuck am I gonna do?”
“You are going to let us find Kate and Noah and get them away from the Russians, and then you are going to help us.”
After an audible sob Walker asked, “Can you really do it?”
“We can and we will. You keep doing what you are doing. Raise no alarm. But we also need you to help us find your family. Have you gotten any information about where they are being kept?”
“Somewhere here in the islands, within fifteen miles or so. On a boat. That’s all I know.”
“How do you know they are on a boat?”
Walker explained the clues Kate and Noah had given him.
Clark said, “She normally gets seasick?”
“Yeah. Violently ill. Don’t know what’s different about this boat.” Walker said, “I’ve got to get back out there. Look, you can’t tell anyone else. The CIA, the FBI. They’ll just come down here and make noise.”