“I don’t understand what you are saying,” stated Noldt. “What is the alternative? Surely such a thing doesn’t occur spontaneously on Earth?”
“No, I don’t see how it possibly could,” agreed Runyan. “I don’t see how it could have occurred naturally on or off of the Earth.” He paused, unable to avoid sounding portentous, and somewhat embarrassed at doing so. He was determined not to speak next.
After a moment, Leems spoke up with an edge in his voice. “If we accept your arguments up to this point, then we’re forced to the conclusion that this thing was manufactured. Is that what you’re saying?”
Runyan nodded, but remained silent as all eyes shifted toward him. At last he said, “That’s the second conclusion I’ve reached. I think we must allow for the possibility unless it can be rigorously ruled out.”
Again Runyan became silent as he exchanged glances with his colleagues, desiring to support, but not lead the discussion at this critical juncture.
“There are two possibilities then, aren’t there?” asked Fletcher. “It’s man-made or . . .” He paused and finally said in a flat voice, “Or it’s not.”
“Omigod!” exclaimed Noldt. “You mean this thing could have been manufactured by extraterrestrials and. . .and planted here?”
Several voices were raised in simultaneous protest.
“This is getting out of hand!”
“UFO’s again! That’s very hard to believe!”
Isaacs had a flash of memory of the AFTAC headquarters in Florida where he had first heard of the seismic signal. He couldn’t believe what he was hearing. How could that simple little rattle in the Earth be related to the insanity that was being expressed in this room! Then he thought of Zamyatin. Whatever was going on, he couldn’t feature explaining black holes to the KGB chief, never mind trying to convince him they were being fired by nasty little green men from outer space. He shook his head and pinched his eyes with thumb and finger. This discussion just had no connection whatever with the real world of geopolitical confrontation with which he dealt every day.
Runyan cut in. “I’m sure we agree that the whole situation is hard to believe!”
“The energy requirements to make such a thing must be gigantic,” said Leems. “Surely the suggestion that it’s artificial is absurd.”
“It would take a lot of energy,” Runyan agreed.
“Don’t you think it’s fair to conclude then,” Leems pressed, “that such a thing would be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to create? I have a strong suspicion we’re on the wrong track altogether despite your argument here.”
“I don’t deny that point,” replied Runyan. “It’s very difficult to conceive how such a thing could be done.”
“Still,” argued Noldt, “it’s not that it’s impossible, just that we can’t see how it could be accomplished technologically. Isn’t that correct?”
“I think that’s correct,” said Runyan. “We’re talking about very large amounts of energy, but not an infinite amount. In principle, it could be done. After all, we’re fairly comfortable with the notion of it happening spontaneously in an astronomical context. Also, the large energy you’re thinking about is based on brute force compression. There may be more elegant means to the end.”
“Then,” said Noldt with a barely suppressed excitement, “since we see no way to do it on Earth, aren’t we forced to consider the possibility that such a thing was made by extraterrestrials and put in the Earth for some purpose?”
“Before we invoke some malevolent intent, terrestrial or otherwise,” Leems said with scarcely veiled sarcasm, “I must say I’m not satisfied that we really know enough to rule out a natural origin. Even if we accept that we’re dealing with a black hole, and I’m as yet far from convinced of the necessity, how can we eliminate the possibility that this thing started out exceedingly small a long time ago? Maybe the Earth even condensed around it, and it took all this time, five billion years, for it to grow to its present size.”
“I have two responses to that,” Runyan said. “One is that the Universe was already quite old when the Earth was born. There were no special conditions at the time to create small black holes, and any born in the Big Bang should have long since evaporated.”
“Well then, figure out a way to prevent evaporation,” Leems said harshly. “That still seems more likely than insisting on some intelligent plot at work.”
“Maybe so, maybe so,” Runyan said slowly. “The other thing that bothers me is that the growth time for this thing is relatively long. I find it peculiar that this phenomenon has only just been discovered, since the technology to detect it has been around for some time.”
“Are you saying that this thing has just been put here recently?” asked Noldt. He half-glanced over his shoulder as if expecting to catch a glimpse of an alien presence.
After a moment’s hesitation, Runyan spoke again. “I’m disturbed that we’re skirting a bit close to the edge of reason here with too few facts to support us.” He cleared his throat, then continued. “Perhaps we should set aside for awhile the issue of how such a thing could come to be and try to consider some other factors. We should discuss what we can do to learn more about this object.”
“I’ve been thinking about that,” said Fletcher, “as a remedy for incipient hysteria.”
Pat Danielson had been following the discussion intently. She had felt herself becoming more edgy as the tension in the room increased. She had read some popular accounts of astronomy and their discussions of black holes and thought she was beginning to make some sense from Runyan’s remarks, but the idea that he would leap from the evidence she had compiled to this conclusion still left her stunned. And now talk of manufacturing such a thing. That just couldn’t be. She joined the nervous laughter after Fletcher’s remark and could sense the more relaxed mood that spread through the room.
Fletcher continued, “There should be quite a bit one could do by adopting your hypothesis as a working assumption and constructing appropriate models. If we could predict the behavior of a small black hole, or whatever, orbiting through the Earth, we could compare such predictions with the seismic data and other observations and perhaps get a much better idea of just what we are dealing with. Ideally, we should be able to prove your hypothesis true—or false.”
“Ah, a voice of reason,” said Leems, in a more lively tone. “I don’t know much about seismic waves, but it still seems to me that they should be modeled as well, to see whether the data that have been reported can be accounted for as some natural seismic phenomenon. The data are admittedly quite bizarre, but surely our seismologist friends don’t know everything about the workings of the inner Earth. Maybe there are special fissures or lattice works that channel waves in this special way.
“I do concede, though, Alex,” Leems continued, “that since you have let this particular genie of yours out of the bottle, it should be pursued.”
“That’s right,” agreed Noldt, “if we are, in fact, dealing with a black hole and it originated on the Earth’s surface, then, if I have the picture correctly, it should return roughly to its point of origin.”
“I wish you wouldn’t assume it was made on the Earth’s surface,” interrupted Leems.
Noldt gave him a befuddled glance and continued, gesturing toward Isaacs and Danielson. “We already have reasonably accurate predictive capabilities. We can predict when and where the thing is due to come up and, well, of course you don’t just grab it, but surely we could learn more about it then.”
“In fact,” added Fletcher, “shouldn’t an orbit tell us just where the origin was with respect to the surface?”
Leems frowned again, but did not say anything.
“Yes, exactly right,” said Runyan. “If we compare the apogee, the point farthest from the center of the Earth, to the Earth’s topography, that should give us some pertinent information. We already have an interesting indication from the Dallas event so nicely predicted by Dr. Danielson.” He nodded a
t Danielson and she smiled quickly in return. “About forty seconds elapsed from the first episode in the bar to the destruction of the building across the alley. An object in free fall could not have risen and then fallen more than a few thousand feet. So apparently apogee is somewhat above sea level, but not far. The point at which the orbit peaks will occur deep under mountains of any height, the Rockies or the Himalayas. More precise information of this sort could be most useful.”
“If we can tell where this thing comes out of the Earth, what sort of tests can we run?” asked Noldt. “You can’t see such a thing can you?”
“No,” answered Runyan, “it’s about the size of an atomic nucleus. You surely couldn’t see it directly. It’s most distinctive characteristic, of course, would be its gravitational field. That should be quite appreciable. Gravimeters set up in the vicinity should be able to tell us precisely what the mass of the object is, whether or not it comes to or through the surface. A simple seismic wave will have no effect on the local strength of gravity. A massive, orbiting object, on the other hand, should give a definite signature.
“I propose that this be our first move, and that since Gantt is our resident seismologist, he’s the man to mount such an expedition.” Runyan turned to Gantt. “What do you say, Ellison? If Dr. Danielson can predict where the event will approach the surface at a given time, won’t you be able to measure or set stringent limits on the fluctuations of the gravitational field?”
“That’s an excellent idea!” responded Gantt with enthusiasm. “I’ll start planning immediately.”
Runyan glanced at Leems and then inquired, “What do you think of that, Harvey?”
Leems clasped his fingers together and stared at them for a moment. “The gravity seems to be an effective discriminant. By all means, let’s put your idea to the test.”
Gantt raised a finger and inquired, “How well can you predict the point of surfacing? Can Dr. Danielson’s estimates be improved?”
“I think there’s much to be done with computer models,” responded Runyan. “I sketched a crude hypothetical orbit on the board. There will be many perturbations to an idealized orbit, but to work those out in detail can be done with sufficient effort. In addition, there may be some effect from the Sun and Moon, and perhaps the larger planets. With the exception of the effect of the structure of the inner Earth, which is not known precisely, computation of a detailed hypothetical orbit should be possible.”
“Who would do these orbit calculations?” inquired Noldt.
“The people with the expertise,” replied Runyan, “are those who calculate satellite orbits. They’ve already developed techniques to handle inhomogeneities in the Earth’s gravitational field as well as perturbations of the Sun, Moon, and planets. The effect of irregularities in the interior of the Earth have not, of course, been studied in that context. Incorporating the effects of structure on the orbit should be possible in some approximation, though. There will also be drag forces, since the orbiting object will be accreting and, if nothing else, losing energy into the seismic waves we are detecting.”
There was a pause as these various practical considerations were pondered.
“At the risk of leading us back to the brink of insanity,” began Fletcher after a moment, “I think we should at least touch upon one more item. I know we would all rather go after experimental results than to speculate with insufficient data, but I think we are charged here with exploring all avenues, at least in a preliminary fashion.” He looked sharply at Runyan. “What should be done if you’re correct, Alex?”
This query plunged the room back into an uncomfortable silence. The relief that had come with the discussion of the dispassionate collection of data was replaced with general discomfort. No one was anxious to contemplate what could only be a dreadful prospect.
Leems spoke first. “Surely it’s premature, but, yes, let’s play the game out.”
“Perhaps I should lead off,” Runyan spoke quietly. “Though I confess I have nothing definite, and certainly nothing positive, to say on the subject.” He paused, collecting his thoughts, sensing again the yawning chasm.
“Black holes are notoriously one-way affairs. They get bigger. A black hole will eat and grow like a cancer in the bowels of the Earth. Where it does orbit above the surface, it becomes accessible in a sense, but it’s not clear that that does us much good. As Ted remarked earlier, you don’t just load something the size of an atomic nucleus and the weight of a small mountain in the back of a truck and haul it off. We have two choices: destroy it, or remove it from the Earth. The hell of it is, I don’t see any way of doing either.”
After a moment’s quiet, Fletcher spoke. “There’s a third choice, isn’t there?” He looked around at his colleagues. “Evacuate the Earth.”
“Good lord!” ejaculated Leems. “Let’s not get morbid.”
“Carl’s not trying to be morbid,” said Noldt with some heat. “We need to explore all the possibilities, and he’s just being honest.”
Fletcher gave a quick nod of acknowledgment in Noldt’s direction and then addressed himself to Runyan. “If it is a hole, Alex, how fast is it growing?”
“That depends rather sensitively on how massive it is and the structure of the material it passes through,” Runyan replied. “The time to double in mass could be several thousand years.”
“As short as that!” exclaimed Noldt.
“I could easily be off by a factor of ten. It could be longer.” He looked Noldt in the eye. “Or it could be shorter.” He glanced around at the group. “This is a crucial point that Carl has raised. Any estimate of the time scale will require a knowledge of the mass, which makes the effort to measure the mass even more important. In any case, if we are dealing with a black hole, it will only grow at an ever increasing rate. We’ll never have any longer to figure out what to do about it than we have right now.”
“Do you have any idea how quickly it will become dangerous?” Fletcher wanted to know.
“Again, I can make some guesses as to what will happen,” replied Runyan, “but I can’t say just when without more information.
“If it is a black hole and we can’t get rid of it, it will continue to consume the matter of the Earth. We’ll have to look at the details more closely. This will be part of the orbit calculations I just mentioned. It may, for instance, eat the liquid core faster than the solid mantle, although it’s traveling faster in the core and that may mute the effect. In any case, it’s riddling the mantle with small holes. Either consuming the core or weakening the mantle will induce earthquakes of increasing magnitude. The drag associated with its motion will eventually cause it to settle into the center of the Earth. Not only will it then be irrevocably out of reach, but the core will be rapidly consumed.
“As the molten core of the Earth is consumed, the Earth will shrink. That in turn will remove the pressure support that holds up the giant continental plates. They will begin to rapidly shift and collide, in turn giving rise to another source of destructive Earthquakes. All of this seismic activity will cause severe volcanic activity and tidal waves. As the hole gets to be near the mass of the Earth, the Earth will begin to oscillate in orbit, as it revolves around a common center of mass with the hole. This will drastically enhance the destruction.
“Finally, the hole will grow so large that it will rapidly ingest the last of the core and large chunks of mantle. The outcome will be a black hole with the mass of the present Earth, but only the size of my thumb.” He made a fist with extended thumb for illustration. “In the end there will be nothing but the Moon orbiting a small black nothingness, maybe along with a ring of rocks that managed to avoid being pulled in.”
The group of people in the room sat silently, mesmerized by this gloomy prediction. Caught up in the story he was spinning, Runyan paused, but then proceeded on an afterthought.
“I’m sure it’s of only academic interest, but one can carry the story to its end. This small black hole and its Moon would continue
to orbit the Sun. After several billion years, the Sun will swell to become a red giant and will engulf the hole. If the Earth still existed at that point it would be vaporized in the fire. But if the black hole has done its work, the tables will be turned. The process will begin again, but with the Sun the victim. The hole will slowly spiral down through the matter of the Sun. It will settle to the center and consume the whole Sun in the space of a few years. That black hole, now immensely massive but only a few miles across, and its remnant planets, if any, will then proceed through space until the end of time.”
*****
Chapter 12
Konstantin Naboyev climbed into the helicopter with a feeling of grim pleasure. It was not much of a revolt, but it was his, and he was so bored he could eat the hinges off a hatch cover. He had to do something to scratch this itch; there was nothing else in sight, so this was it.
He went through the pre-flight check quickly and lifted off the helipad as the control started to give him permission. The voice squawked that he had not maintained procedures. Up yours, he thought to himself. What are you going to do, send me back to Afghanistan?
He longed to return to that incredible challenging mountain terrain. There your ass was on the line every second of the day. Even when you were asleep, those tricky, fierce bastards could figure some way to get to you. In Afghanistan, you were either a man, or you were dead. In a way he loved those tough rebels who fought like stubborn terriers and kept him on the razor’s edge, every nerve throbbing with awareness. But most of all he loved to find them scrabbling over the rocks in the high country, in places where it was impossible to fly, where the passes were too narrow, the air too thin, the cross winds too vicious. He would fly there anyway! He would find them, bring his great machine whining up over a ridge, catch them in his sights, and rip them to bloody shreds.
And so what was he doing now? Flying off a ship in the middle of the flattest, most boring god-awful expanse of ocean known to the mind of man. The mindless routine was driving him absolutely berserk. Stop in the ocean, lower the small boats, rig the large aluminum plate between them, sail around trying to see if something coming out of the sea would punch a hole in the plate. Naboyev, now he was really lucky. He got to take off, fly in a lazy circle about the small boats below, not see a goddamn thing, then land back on the ship, so they could sail a few hundred kilometers and then perform the same idiotic routine the next day. Well today, by god, he was at least going to find out a little about what was coming out of the ocean.
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