18. Thomas Foley, interview with the author, February 6, 1986 His version was confirmed by two of Speaker O’Neill’s aides.
19. Ibid.
20. The Supreme Court struck down the enforcement mechanism in the Gramm-Rudman law by ruling that the comptroller general was an agent of Congress who could not give orders to executive branch departments to cut their budgets. For him to do so, the Court said, would violate the separation of powers.
21. James A. Baker III, NBC Today, September 24, 1987.
22. James Exon, Congressional Record, September 23, 1987, S 12575.
18. WHERE’S THE MAJORITY PARTY?
1. James L. Sundquist, “Strengthening American Political Parties,” an unpublished paper presented at Brookings Institution, April 7, 1987, p. 9.
2. William Schneider, “The New Shape of American Politics,” The Atlantic, January 1987, see especially, pp. 44–47.
3. Kevin Phillips, interview with the author, January 21, 1985.
4. See the biennial National Election Studies by the Center for Political Studies of the University of Michigan. For extensive analysis of political realignment in the South, see Ray Wolfinger and Michael G. Hagen, “Republican Prospects: Southern Comfort,” Public Opinion, October–November 1985, pp 8–13. When independent voters leaning to the two parties are counted, Democrats led Republicans in the South by only 46–39 percent.
5. The New York Times/CBS News election-day exit poll on November 6, 1984, showed that blue collar voters went 54 percent to 46 percent for Reagan over Mondale
6. Horace Busby, The Busby Papers, November 14, 1984, p. 3. Busby points out that in the 128 years since the Republican Party emerged with Lincoln in 1860, Republicans have occupied the White House 80 years, or 62.5 percent of the time; and since 1860, Democrats have controlled the House roughly 60 percent of the time.
7. Horace Busby, “The Republican Lock Revisited,” The Busby Papers, May 17, 1984, p. 3, has a state-by-state breakdown of the GOP presidential base.
8. Paul Laxalt, interview with the author, January 11, 1985.
9. The New York Times, December 24, 1984, p. 9.
10. See The New York Times/CBS News election day exit polls of 1980 and 1984 for significant shifts in the party vote of many groups.
11. Kevin Phillips, The American Political Report, January 11, 1985, p. 2.
12. Lou Cannon, The Washington Post, November 3, 1986, p. A10.
13. The Washington Times, November 6, 1986, p. 6A.
14. Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties, 1952–1984 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1986) p. 144–145. The biannual National Election Studies show a striking contrast between the types of support won by Eisenhower and Reagan, by income brackets.
15. Kevin Phillips, Los Angeles Times, November 9, 1986, Part V, p. 1.
16. Actually, the swings in popular sentiment in Senate races are less dramatic than shifting control suggests. In 1980, when the Republican majority took over, a shift of 24,000 votes in five states would have left the Democrats in control. And in 1986, when the Democrats regained control, a shift of 36,000 votes in six states would have left a Republican majority.
17. Previously, the longest spans of partisan control—by the Republicans—were sixteen-year spurts from 1858 to 1874 and again from 1894 to 1910.
18. Walter Dean Burnham, “A Continuing Political Gridlock,” The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 1985, p. 18.
19. Norman J. Ornstein, et al., eds., Vital Statistics on Congress, 1987–88 Edition (Washington: Congressional Quarterly, 1987), Table 2–2, in Chapter 2, titled “Popular Vote and House Seats Won, by Party, 1946–1986.”
20. Norman Ornstein, “Genesis of a Gerrymander,” The Wall Street Journal, May 7, 1985, p. 30. His table for the 1984 House elections shows why Republican vote totals do not yield as many seats as Democratic vote totals. In districts with turnouts under 175,000 votes, Democrats got 37 percent of their seats whereas Republicans got only 10 percent. But in districts with turnout over 200,000, Republicans got 68 percent of their seats and Democrats only 41 percent. Republican winners got more voters than Democratic winners because they came from affluent, activist districts.
21. Thomas Mann, “Is the House of Representatives Unresponsive to Political Change?”, in A. James Reichley, ed., Elections American Style (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1987) p. 263. Mann calculates “the value of incumbency increased by at least 5 percentage points from the 1950s to the 1970s.”
22. Common Cause study, April 7, 1987, Chart VIII, and preliminary findings reported in The New York Times, November 10, 1986. p. A18.
23. The Federal Election Commission report of May 10, 1987, disclosed that $471.4 million was raised by House and Senate candidates in the 1986 election cycle and that PACs contributed $132.2 million.
24. Michael J. Malbin, “Looking Back at the Future of Campaign Finance Reform,” in Michael J. Malbin, ed., Money and Politics in the United States (Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1984), p. 265.
25. Mann, op. cit., p. 11.
26. Louis Harris, interview with the author, October 20, 1985.
27. National Election Study, 1952 and 1986, conducted by the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan.
28. Ralph Whitehead, Jr., “New Collar Americans and the Democratic Vision,” paper presented to the Democratic Policy Commission, Washington, D.C., July 10, 1985, pp. 2, 4, 5.
29. Walter Dean Burnham, “Elections Dash GOP Dreams of Realignment,” The Wall Street Journal, November 26, 1986, p.20.
30. Larry J. Sabato, The Rise of Political Consultants (New York: Basic Boob, 1981), p. 289.
31. Ibid., p. 288.
32. Warren Rudman, interview with the author, April 6, 1987.
33. Leon Billings, “The Chaos of Congress,” The Washington Post, December 30, 1986, p. A21.
34. James L. Sundquist, “The Crisis of Competence in Our National Government,” Political Science Quarterly, Summer, 1980, p. 198.
35. Report of the Federal Election Commission, May 31, 1987, p 2.
36. Report of the Federal Election Commission, May 21, 1987, p. 1, gives the PAC donations as $132.2 million—28 percent of the $471.4 million received by candidates for Senate and House in 1986. The FEC report of May 31, 1987, amended, lists party donations of cash and in-kind services to individual candidates as $25.9 million, or 5.5 percent. But adding common services provided to candidates as a group, experts estimate the actual party contribution is double or triple the FEC figure.
37. Larry Sabato, PAC Power (New York: W. W Norton, 1984), p. 158.
38. Thomas Eagleton, Senate speech, November 23, 1985, The Congressional Record, vol. 131, no. 163.
39. David A. Stockman, interview with James Reston, The New York Times, April 12, 1984, p. B14.
40. Gerald R. Ford, “Imperiled, not Imperial,” Time, November 10, 1980, p. 30.
41. Anthony King, “A Mile and a Half is a Long Way,” in Anthony King, ed., Both Ends of the Avenue (Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy, 1983), p. 249.
42. David Durenburger, Senate speech, August 1, 1985, Congressional Record, vol. 131, no. 106, Part II.
19. OUR POLITICAL DISCONNECT
1. James MacGregor Burns, interview with the author, October 2, 1984.
2. Theodore Sorensen, A Different Kind of Presidency (New York: Harper & Row, 1984), pp. 46–47.
3. Samuel P. Huntington, “The Democratic Distemper,” The Public Interest, Fall 1975, p. 27.
4. Helson W. Polsby, Consequences of Party Reform (New York: Oxford University Press, 1983), p. 129.
5. Austin Ranney, interview with the author, September 12, 1984.
6. Samuel Kernell, interview with the author, April 6, 1987.
7. Peter Hart, interview with the author, July 15, 1987.
8. Memorandum to White House Chief of Staff Dick Cheney from Campaign Strategists Mike Duval and Foster Chanock, Ju
ne 11, 1976, quoted in Martin Schramm, The Great American Video Game (New York: William Morrow, 1987), p. 93.
9. Richard Nixon, Six Crises (New York. Pyramid Books, 1968), p. 457.
10. Richard Wirthlin, interview with the author, January 31, 1986.
11. Walter F. Mondale, press conference, November 7, 1984.
12. Michael Malbin, interview with the author, September 23, 1986.
13. James Ceaser, Glen E. Thurow, Jeffrey Tulis, and Joseph M. Bessette, “The Rise of the Rhetorical Presidency,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, volume XI, no. 1, Winter 1981, pp 158–171.
14. Richard M. Nixon, “Needed: Clarity of Purpose,” Time, November 10, 1980.
15. James David Barber, The Pulse of Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1980), p. 318.
16. Alexander Hamilton’s reply to George Washington on September 9, 1792, was quoted by Herb Schmertz, “Negative Is Their Own Game,” The Washington Times, December 3, 1986, p. 2D.
17. Charles Krauthammer, The Washington Post, October 24, 1986, p. A27.
18. The Washington Post, June 30, 1987, p. A8.
19. The Washington Post, October 5, 1986, p. 6.
20. The New York Times, August 27, 1986, p. A18.
21. The Washington Times, November 6, 1986, p. 4D.
22. Curtis B. Gans, “Non-Voting: The Nature of the Problem, Its Importance to American Democracy, and Some Approaches to Its Solution,” an unpublished paper given at The Brookings Institution, April 7, 1987 Gans also quoted in The Washington Times, November 6, 1986, p. 4D.
23. Norman Ornstein, interview with the author, October 3, 1984.
20. WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
1. Richard Nixon in “Taking Another Look at the Constitutional Blueprint,” American Heritage, May–June 1987, pp. 53–54.
2. Bryce Harlow, interview with the author, November 13, 1985.
3. Donald L. Robinson, To the Best of My Ability (New York: Norton, 1987), pp. 133–48, develops the case that the Constitution has been changed by the modern standing army at the disposal of the president.
4. Jimmy Carter in “Taking Another Look at the Constitutional Blueprint,” American Heritage, May–June 1987, p. 54.
5. “A Bicentennial Analysis of the American Political Structure,” report and recommendations of the Committee on the Constitutional System, Washington, D.C., January 1987. The committee is jointly chaired by Democrat Lloyd Cutler, White House counsel to President Carter; Republican Senator Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas; and Republican C. Douglas Dillon, Treasury secretary to President Kennedy.
6. Howard H. Baker, Jr., interview with James Reston, The New York Times, May 12, 1987, p. B6.
7. Thomas Cronin, conversation with the author, October 11, 1987.
8. See Larry Sabato, “Real and Imagined Corruption in Campaign Financing,” in A. James Reichley, ed., Elections American Style (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1987), p. 168. This paper was included in the recommendations of the Committee on the Constitutional System, p. 9.
9. Thomas E. Mann, “Is the House of Representatives Unresponsive to Political Change?,” in Reichley, op. cit. p. 278.
10. All kinds of formulas are possible for levying time requirements on TV stations by the size of their listening area or audience, and granted to candidates of the two major parties. Other candidates would qualify by past voting support above a given threshold and by petitions of some fixed size.
11. Bryce Harlow, interview with the author, November 13, 1985.
12. Theodore F. Sorensen, A Different Kind of Presidency (New York: Harper & Row, 1984), pp. 55–56.
13. Benjamin Zycher, “An Item Veto Won’t Work,” The Wall Street Journal, October 24, 1984, p. 32. Zycher also points out that the states with the highest spending levels all have the line-item veto.
14. George Shultz, Iran-contra hearings, July 23, 1987.
About the Author
HEDRICK SMITH was a Pulitzer Prize–winning international reporter for The New York Times for twenty-six years, and he was a member of the Pulitzer Prize–winning team that produced the Pentagon Paper series for the Times. He was that paper’s Washington bureau chief and chief Washington correspondent for nearly a decade. Coauthor of two books on President Reagan and politics, he is the author of the bestselling The Russians, The Power Game, The New Russians, and Rethinking America. He has been host for three PBS documentary series: Inside Gorbachev’s Russia, The Power Game, and Challenge to America. Smith is editor in residence at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; he lives in Maryland with his wife, Susan.
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