The radiation released by a nuclear explosion has many long-term health effects on a person, including suppression of the immune system. The public health implications of entire populations with compromised immunity are wide-ranging and severe. Public health officials are preparing for dramatic increases in cancers such as leukemia in the coming years. The immediate crisis, however, is that millions of the tens of millions of people with severely compromised immune systems remain vulnerable because they have been displaced and still lack reliable access to clean water and sanitation.
The epidemics that have swept the United States over the past three years also appear to be attributable to the exploding populations of pests in affected areas, which are almost certainly another consequence of the nuclear attacks. In particular, the slow pace of recovering and disposing of millions of bodies allowed the population of rats and other scavenging animals to skyrocket. These large animal populations are important vectors for the transmission of disease; epidemiologists interviewed by the commission believe that they are probably responsible for the first-ever recorded outbreak of plague in the New York City area.
The heavy burden of caring for the displaced population, punctuated by frantic efforts to combat the epidemics that have periodically broken out, is a major reason for the slow progress of reconstruction in affected areas, which understandably frustrates the hundreds of millions of people who are anxious for the government to restore the normalcy of prewar life and rebuild the country. The commission notes that it is extremely important that this reconstruction work continue apace, particularly because the window of time to complete it is shrinking. The many long-term health consequences of radiation exposure are already beginning to manifest in rising numbers of cancers and other health problems. The challenge associated with providing for the long-term care of many millions of citizens will be an increasing burden in the decades to come. Unless the nation rebuilds vital infrastructure in a timely fashion, it may find itself starved for resources as other long-term effects arise and demand our collective attention.
The displacement of such a large group of people has had important long-term impacts. The most visible impacts are the total destruction of Manhattan and the relocation of federal government operations to the Mount Weather facility in Berryville, Virginia. The reconstruction of Manhattan, which is overseen by a public-benefit corporation, represents an enormous investment by the federal government, as well as New York State and New Jersey. Although the reconstruction has proceeded relatively smoothly, there are considerable doubts about when or whether financial and other industries will return to the city as reconstruction advances. It is more clear that federal government functions will eventually return to Washington, although when remains uncertain. Although the city of Washington itself was largely spared destruction, more than 80,000 federal jobs were located in northern Virginia and the area was home to more than 100,000 federal workers. It was simply not possible to sustain normal government operations in this environment, although reconstruction activities continue to be directed from offices in suburban Maryland. In Hawaii and Florida, too, the task of reconstruction has been daunting and, for many, the pace far too slow.
The tragedy of March 2020 is not, it should be noted, merely a Korean, Japanese, or American tragedy. Extraordinary amounts of black smoke from burning cities has led to a period of global cooling, which is almost certainly responsible for the recent rise in food prices around the world—which in turn is believed to be responsible for the famines that have struck Africa, South Asia, and China over the past few years. Global temperatures have fallen by an average 1.25 degrees Celsius in each of the past three years, resulting in shorter growing seasons. In the United States, corn and soybean production has fallen by an average of 10 percent from prewar levels, and continues to drop. There has also been a significant fall (20 percent) in Chinese middle-season rice production. The best estimates made available to the commission suggest that there are now around one billion people experiencing extreme food insecurity as a result of the cooling temperatures. The outbreaks of famine and disease throughout the developing world pose an important challenge for the reconstruction of Korea, Japan, and the United States.
There were successes during this period. The air and ground campaign executed by US Pacific Command in particular was effective and inspired. Although many Americans are understandably outraged by the failure to prevent the launch of thirteen nuclear-armed missiles against the US homeland, the air operation and subsequent ground invasion resulted in the near-total destruction of the North Korean army within less than forty-eight hours, with fewer than one hundred combat deaths for US forces. The campaign was largely a brilliantly executed improvisation. If the surprise nuclear attack by Kim Jong Un was a tactical victory, it was also a colossal strategic blunder that led to his downfall. This was, presumably, obvious to Kim as he sat beneath the mountains. According to a surviving aide, Kim could hear the sound of gunfire from US and South Korean special forces as they entered the underground complex in the moments before he took his own life.
There was also the incredible heroism of the many millions of Americans who ignored their own injuries that day to help others who were suffering. Strangers cared for one another. They rescued people from rubble, they bandaged wounds, they shared food and shelter. Sometimes there was nothing at all they could do except simply sit with a stranger so that person did not die alone. Their courage and sacrifice that day is an inspiration to us all and a reminder that we can, if we choose, act in the face of seemingly hopeless circumstances.
It is this spirit that the commissioners believe we must now bring to our most urgent task—reconstruction. In Korea, the success of the military operation to remove Kim Jong Un from power has opened the door to reunification of the Korean Peninsula. But both Korea and Japan—the world’s eleventh- and third-largest economies and major American trading partners—are in ruins. The cost of rebuilding our economies is immense. In the United States, these efforts are expected to cost $30 trillion to $40 trillion over the next decade—with the costs associated with rebuilding Manhattan alone estimated at between $15 trillion and $20 trillion. This is a formidable challenge that, above all, requires that our country come together and act with a unity of purpose.
Although the commissioners are mindful that many Americans believe that some officials should be held responsible for the course of events that led to the nuclear attacks against the United States, this would be a mistake. It would only serve to inflame partisan passions again, without bringing back the millions of dead. Although it is possible to disagree with specific decisions taken by senior officials, the commission found that they made the best decisions they could with the information that was available to them at the time. They acted in the same way that any senior official of any political party would, given the circumstances. It would be a mistake to politicize the tragic events of March 2020.
With President Trump’s decision not to seek reelection in November 2020, it is important to look forward, not backward. The president set an example for the nation when he announced that he would not run for reelection, sparing the country what would likely have been an extraordinarily divisive election following his impeachment and subsequent acquittal in the Senate on a party-line vote.
With President Pence’s election, the commission believes we now have an opportunity to turn the page on this terrible moment in our nation’s history. During the public hearings that this commission held throughout the country as part of our inquiry, all of us were astonished by the partisan animosity and recrimination on display. We were struck in particular by the lack of civility characterizing many of these discussions, and we found reprehensible the continuing assertions by many media figures and political partisans that the attacks were, in fact, conducted by federal government officials, such as the intelligence community, to discredit President Trump and his presidency. Though it should be plain enough, we feel compelled to say directly that there w
as no “deep state” conspiracy to explode nuclear weapons throughout the United States. There were no mass executions by Army and Army National Guard troops keeping order. There is no evidence that large numbers of Jews evacuated New York before the attacks. Kim Jong Un is not alive, nor is he living in Russia. And as their wounds and burns attest, the millions of survivors are not “crisis actors.” It is shocking to us to see that these opinions appear widespread and persistent online, as well as in many parts of the United States not directly affected by the attacks. They are false.
As noted at the beginning of this report, the members of this commission have been surprised by how many times they were asked one question in particular at these public hearings. While the answer to this question has been elusive, they feel it is important enough to mention it again in closing.
Should the United States seek the elimination of nuclear weapons? Some people believe that the large-scale destruction experienced by the United States is a powerful demonstration of the danger of nuclear weapons and that, as a society, we should commit ourselves to their elimination. These people believe that the United States should abandon its nuclear arms and join international legal agreements prohibiting the development, possession, and use of such weapons.
Others, however, disagree. They believe that North Korea’s large-scale use of nuclear weapons demonstrates that warfare, including nuclear warfare, remains a significant threat to the United States of America. Far from prohibiting nuclear weapons, these people believe that the United States must maintain a robust nuclear force to deter the sort of attacks launched by Kim Jong Un on the nation and its allies. The task of deterring another nuclear war, these skeptics argue, should take precedence over unrealistic efforts to prohibit these weapons.
This is an important and challenging policy question. There are many strong and differing opinions, even among the commissioners. Ultimately, however, they agreed that it lay beyond the scope of their mandate. The commission’s task was to understand how the nuclear war came about and to provide the American public with the facts of the situation in the most objective way possible. They have done this. To go further and ask what implications those facts might have for issues such as nuclear strategy or foreign policy would be to engage in speculation. Such speculation, in the current partisan environment, they felt, would only serve to further inflame passions and undermine the fragile national unity upon which our recovery depends. This commission of politicians and other distinguished public servants was asked to answer the simple question of what happened. Now that they have completed their task, they return to their lives as private citizens who each possess one vote in our great Republic—one vote that counts exactly the same as every other American citizen’s.
Jeffrey Lewis, PhD
On behalf of the 2020 Commission
Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center
Berryville, VA
May 1, 2023
The 2020 Commission Report
STATEMENT BY FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES DONALD J. TRUMP
April 2, 2023
The so-called 2020 Commission is a total Witch Hunt and just more Deep State FAKE NEWS.
The Democrats will NEVER accept that I defeated Crooked Hilary even though 3 million illegals voted for her.
They can’t stand that I won the Republican nomination by defeating seventeen candidates, often described as the most talented field ever assembled in the Republican party, and then beat their candidate.
Now the Democrats want to blame me for the Nuclear War (which was very terrible) and that they caused. The SAME nuclear war that killed Melania who was so beautiful.
The Democrats like Lyin’ Chuck Schumer will never admit that I almost made a deal with Rocketman. It would have been a very good deal for the world. And the Phony media says negotiations “collapsed” but never admit that it was the Democrats that didn’t want a deal and said that it was terrible (although they did and very often). Crooked Hilary, Lyin’ Chuck and the Democrats did every thing to kill the deal because they can’t stand me winning. VERY DISHONEST.
Fortunately, we have many great Americans who remain very supportive of our Great President Mike Pence and the Make America Great Again agenda. Like me, they love the United States of America and are helping to take our Country back and build it up much better than it was before, rather than trying to burn it all down.
Acknowledgments
I am deeply indebted to Hidehiko Yuzaki, the governor of Hiroshima prefecture, for inviting me to be a member of his roundtable on disarmament. Visiting Hiroshima each August is a profoundly moving experience. Every time I visit Hiroshima, I find myself wondering how to persuade more people to listen to the stories of the Hibakusha—the Japanese people who survived the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. I made the decision to use their real testimonies to describe the horror of the fictional nuclear war in these pages. I did this because it is easy, as Americans, to let the slightly stilted grammar of a translation create a false sense of distance between ourselves and the very real people who suffered and died. But they were and are people, just like we are, and our fate might well turn out to be the same. The testimonies presented in Chapter 10 are largely drawn from interviews presented in the television program Hiroshima Witness, produced by the Hiroshima Peace Cultural Center and NHK, Japan’s national public broadcaster. These interviews were translated into English by the college students Yumi Kodama, Junko Kato, Junko Kawamoto, Masako Kubota, Chiharu Kimura, and Kumi Komatsu, who were advised by Laurence Wiig, and they are now posted at the Atomic Archive. I want people to read the stories of the survivors. I hope that I did right by them.
Along the same lines, John Hersey’s 1946 book Hiroshima is probably more responsible than anything else for my interest in nuclear weapons. While there really is a South Korean television drama with a doctor named Oh Soo-hyun, the Dr. Oh depicted in Chapter 6 is a fictional homage to the very real Dr. Terafumi Sasaki, who was profiled in Hersey’s Hiroshima. Everyone who cares about the fate of this world and the danger posed by nuclear weapons should read Hersey’s book and the stories of the Hibakusha, and then visit the city of Hiroshima. Do it and you will understand.
Similarly, I used many stories from 9/11—particularly those relating to events on Air Force One. If you are interested in that day, I found Garrett Graff’s oral history “‘We’re the Only Plane in the Sky,’” published in Politico, to be completely spellbinding.
All of the casualty estimates were created using Alex Wellerstein’s incomparable Nukemap website.
I am also thankful to a slew of local friends, including Josh and Molly Goshorn, who let me use their real-life experience with the false alarm in Hawaii, and Jay and Chloe Dolata, who let me sit for hours at Carmel Belle writing.
I am grateful to the suggestions of those who read drafts of chapters, including Joe Cirincione, Ian Martin, Adam Rawnsley, Peter Scoblic, and Erin Simpson. I am shamelessly stealing your suggestions and taking credit for them.
Bill Potter, the director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and my colleagues at the center were tremendously supportive. Melissa Hanham, Josh Pollack, and Dave Schmerler helped me think through so many scenarios and picked up the slack when I was overextended. Grace Liu provided translations and notes on Korean culture.
I am grateful to Mike Madden at the Washington Post for commissioning the op-ed that was the germ of the idea that grew into this book.
My literary agent, Gillian MacKenzie at MacKenzie Wolf, was a tireless advocate for this book project, reading chapters as soon as they were finished.
My editor, Alex Littlefield, and the entire team at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt have been a joy to work with, even on some of the more emotionally difficult chapters. Cynthia Buck did an incredible job copyediting the manuscript.
Finally, and most important, I am grateful to my wife, Jill, and our three children—Sebastien, Julian, and Alma. They bore the brunt of the many weekends I sp
ent writing instead of parenting.
Notes
1. The Shootdown of BX 411
on October 22, 2005, a British Airways A319 flight from London Heathrow Airport to Budapest, Hungary, suffered a similar problem: See UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch, “Report on the Serious Incident to Airbus 319-11, Registration G-EXAC, Near Nantes, France, on September 15, 2006,” Aircraft Accident Report 4/2009, July 2009.
a United Airlines flight from Newark to Denver suffered a nearly identical failure: National Transportation Safety Board (NTSA), “Safety Recommendations A-08-53 through 55,” July 22, 2008.
At least four such incidents had occurred in the United Statesafterthe FAA directive was issued in 2010: David Porter, “Airbuses Suffer Cockpit Power Failure, Await Fixes,” Associated Press, August 11, 2012.
a Reagan-era program of psychological operations initiated to strengthen deterrence against Moscow: The Reagan-era PSYOP program and its contribution to the “War Scare” of 1983 are described by Benjamin B. Fischer in “A Cold War Conundrum: The 1983 Soviet War Scare,” intelligence monograph, Central Intelligence Agency, September 1997.
“They had no idea what it all meant”: William Schneider, a former US State Department official who reviewed classified after-action reports, as quoted in Peter Schweizer, Victory: The Reagan Administration’s Secret Strategy That Hastened the Collapse of the Soviet Union (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 1994).
The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States Page 21