by John Bolton;
On December 14, Trump and Erdogan spoke by phone. I briefed Trump beforehand on the situation in Syria, and he said, “We should get the hell out of there,” which I feared he would also say directly to Erdogan. Trump started by saying we were getting very close to a resolution on Halkbank. He had just spoken to Mnuchin and Pompeo, and said we would be dealing with Erdogan’s great son-in-law (Turkey’s Finance Minister) to get it off his shoulders. Erdogan was very grateful, speaking in English no less. Then he switched to Syria. He said Trump knew Turkey’s expectations regarding the YPG (a Syrian Kurdish militia, part of the Opposition Syrian Defense Forces) and the FETO (Gulenist) terrorist network, which Erdogan characterized as threats to Turkish national security which were poisoning bilateral relations between Washington and Ankara. Nonetheless, whined Erdogan, contrary to fact, America was continuing to train YPG forces, including up to 30–40,000 new recruits. He complained of the discrepancy between Trump’s political will and US military activities on the ground, which were causing questions in his mind. Turkey, said Erdogan, wanted to get rid of ISIS and the PKK, although, in my view, by “PKK” he was really referring to Kurdish fighters generally.
Trump said he was ready to leave Syria if Turkey wanted to handle the rest of ISIS; Turkey could do the rest and we would just get out. Erdogan promised his word on that point, but said his forces needed logistical support. Then came the painful part. Trump said he would ask me (I was listening in to the call, as was customary) to immediately work on a plan for US withdrawal, with Turkey taking over the fight against ISIS. He said I should work it out quietly but that we were leaving because ISIS is finished. Trump asked if I could speak, which I did, saying I had heard his instructions. As the call came to an end after further discussion on Halkbank, Trump said Erdogan should work with me on the military (telling me to do a good job) and Mnuchin on Halkbank. Erdogan thanked Trump and called him a very practical leader. Shortly thereafter, Trump said we should craft a statement that we had won the fight against ISIS, we had completed our mission in Syria, and we were now getting out.15 There was little doubt in my mind that Trump had seized on withdrawing from Syria as another campaign promise, like Afghanistan, he was determined to say he had kept. I called Mattis shortly thereafter to brief him; needless to say, he was not thrilled.
This was a personal crisis for me. I felt that withdrawing from Syria was a huge mistake, because of both the continuing global threat of ISIS and the fact that Iran’s substantial influence would undoubtedly grow. I had argued to Pompeo and Mattis as far back as June that we should end our piecemeal policy in Syria, looking at one province or area at a time (e.g., Manbij, Idlib, the southwest exclusion zone, etc.), and focus on the big picture. With most of the ISIS territorial caliphate gone (although the ISIS threat itself was far from eliminated), the big picture was stopping Iran. Now, however, if the US abandoned the Kurds, they would either have to ally with Assad against Turkey, which the Kurds rightly considered the greater threat (thereby enhancing Assad, Iran’s proxy), or fight on alone, facing almost certain defeat, caught in the vise between Assad and Erdogan. What to do?
First, on December 18, Mattis, Dunford, Coats, Haspel, Pompeo, and I (and a few others) convened in “the Tank” in the Pentagon, rather than the Sit Room, to attract less attention. Based on the Trump-Erdogan call, the Turks were doubtless telling anyone who would listen that we were turning northeastern Syria over to their tender mercies. The potential dangers on the ground were daunting, starting with the thousands of ISIS prisoners held by the Kurds, pending some decision on their disposition. Estimates of the actual numbers of prisoners varied, in part due to differing definitions: Were they “foreign terrorist fighters,” meaning from outside the Middle East? From outside Syria and Iraq? Or local? Whatever the number, we did not want them moving en masse to the United States or Europe. In mid-December, Trump suggested bringing the ISIS prisoners in northeastern Syria to Gitmo, but Mattis objected. Trump then insisted that other countries take back their own nationals from the Kurdish camps, which was hardly unreasonable, but which foreign governments strongly resisted, not wanting the terrorists coming home. No one did, but this resistance hardly contributed to a solution. As events developed, we did not resolve the issue before I left the White House.
Finally, exactly how long would it take for the US and other coalition forces to leave in a safe and orderly fashion? Dunford’s planners estimated about 120 days; it certainly wasn’t a matter of 48 hours. I asked about holding on to the At Tanf exclusion zone, located inside Syria at the tri-border junction of Syria, Jordan, and Iraq, not in northeastern Syria, but which US forces held. Control of At Tanf neutralized a key border crossing point on the road between Baghdad and Damascus, which forced Iran and others to cross from Iraq into Syria at a more distant border crossing to the north. Surprisingly, Mattis was skeptical of At Tanf’s worth, probably because he was focused on ISIS rather than Iran. Iran was my main concern, and I stayed firm on At Tanf throughout my time as National Security Advisor. Besides, why give territory away for nothing?
As we had agreed, Mattis, Dunford, Pompeo, and I began to call our allies to prepare them for what was about to happen, receiving no sign of support. France’s Étienne told me Macron would certainly want to talk to Trump about the decision, which didn’t surprise me. Other reactions were equally predictable. I was in the Oval that afternoon when Macron’s call came through, and he was not happy. Trump brushed him aside, saying we were finished with ISIS, and that Turkey and Syria would take care of any remnants. Macron replied that Turkey was focused on attacking the Kurds, and would compromise with ISIS. He pleaded with Trump not to withdraw, saying that we would win in a very short time, and should finish the job. Trump agreed to consult again with his advisors, telling me I should talk to Macron’s people (which I had already done), and Mattis and Dunford that they should talk to their counterparts. Almost immediately, Mattis called to say that French Defense Minister Florence Parly was not at all happy with Trump’s decision. Israel’s Ambassador Ron Dermer told me that this was the worst day he had experienced thus far in the Trump Administration.
The next day, Wednesday, December 19, Mattis, Pompeo, and I had our weekly breakfast in the Ward Room, dominated by Syria, notwithstanding our extensive Pentagon discussion the day before. Numerous press stories had appeared, filled with inaccuracies,16 which I thought came largely from the Pentagon, via allies in Congress. Later in the day, Trump tweeted a video with his own explanation, and press and congressional calls were overwhelming the White House, which, other than the NSC, was yet again focused on the Mexico border wall and related immigration topics. Republicans in Congress almost uniformly opposed Trump’s Syria decision but largely said they would avoid the media, an inhibition Democrats did not share. Republican acquiescence in mistaken national-security policies, however, didn’t help the country or ultimately the party. I reported on the negative Hill reaction that morning, but Trump didn’t believe it, probably relying again on Rand Paul’s assurances that he represented the party’s real base. As if this weren’t enough, Turkey detained a Texas National Guardsman on duty at Incirlik air base, near Adana (which problem, unlike Brunson’s, was resolved quickly).
By Thursday, Trump understood he was getting mauled by media coverage of the Syria withdrawal, which was a small fraction of what would happen if he proceeded to leave Afghanistan completely. We concluded it was not wise to set a deadline for withdrawal but stressed it should be “orderly.” The Turkish military provided a potential lifeline in that regard. They knew full well there had to be military-to-military talks on an orderly transfer of power in an otherwise essentially ungoverned region before the handover Trump proposed could succeed. Those talks would take time, and indeed the US delegation was making plans to travel to Ankara only on Monday, Christmas Eve, the next week.
That afternoon, I learned that Mattis was in the Oval alone with Trump, and a previously scheduled bill-signing ceremony was running very late. As we were
talking, Mattis came out, with Trump right behind him. I could tell instantly something was up. Mattis seemed stunned to see me waiting, but he shook hands without much of an expression. Trump said, “John, come on in,” which I did, with just the two of us in the Oval. “He’s leaving,” said Trump. “I never really liked him.”
After the bill-signing ceremony, Trump and I talked for roughly twenty minutes on how to handle the Mattis departure. Trump wanted to put out a tweet before Mattis’s public relations machine got rolling. Mattis had given Trump a long resignation letter explaining why he was leaving, unquestionably written for widespread public distribution, which Trump had not actually read. Instead, he had simply left it on the Resolute desk, from which it had been removed for the bill-signing ceremony. When we retrieved the letter, I read with surprise that Mattis wanted to serve until the end of February, spending his remaining time as Secretary of Defense testifying before Congress and speaking at the February NATO Defense Ministers’ meeting. Even more surprising to Trump, given the tenor of his conversation with Mattis, was the letter’s substance, rejecting Trump’s policies. I explained to Trump that the scheduling was completely untenable, though I was not sure it sank in. He was, however, more and more expressive about how much he didn’t like Mattis. “I created a monster when I named him ‘Mad Dog,’ ” said Trump, which was at least partially correct. (Mattis’s real moniker was “Chaos.”) I returned to my office to call Pompeo at 5:20 p.m., and by then, Trump’s tweet was out and the Mattis press blitz under way. Pompeo said Mattis had stopped by State on the way to the White House, giving him a copy of the resignation letter. Mattis said, “The President doesn’t pay attention to me anymore. It’s his way of saying he doesn’t want me. It’s time to leave.” I thought all these things were true, and Pompeo agreed.
All this turmoil over Mattis, of course, affected the Syrian and parallel Afghan dramas, especially because Mattis made Trump’s order for US forces to exit Syria the determining factor in his resignation. Nonetheless, the succession question remained. By Saturday, two days after the Mattis meeting in the Oval, Trump told me at about six fifteen p.m. that he wasn’t waiting around for February for Mattis’s departure and had decided to name Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan as Acting Secretary of Defense. (At this point, Trump was torn between nominating Shanahan for the job full-time and naming retired General Jack Keane.) In addition, Trump now wanted Mattis out immediately, not even coming to the Pentagon on Monday. I pointed out it was almost Christmas, and Trump said, “Christmas isn’t until Tuesday. We should fire him today.”
On Sunday, December 23, I spoke with Trump just before a ten a.m. call with Erdogan. Trump had just finished “a good talk” with Shanahan, whom he had found “very impressive.” Trump wondered why he had not been so impressed in their previous encounters. He supplied his own answer, with which I agreed, that Shanahan “had been held down over there [at the Pentagon] by Mattis,” adding, “He loves you and Pompeo.” A January 1 start date, however, would still leave Mattis in place until December 31, and Trump was rumbling again that he wanted him out immediately. I said I would see what could be done and then immediately called Shanahan, who was in Seattle with his family. I suggested that, Christmas or no Christmas, he should think about returning to Washington immediately. I also called Dunford, reaching him as he landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. I told him what had happened with Erdogan on Syria, and with Mattis, which he appreciated because no one else had conveyed the Pentagon news. I assured Dunford that Trump wanted him to stay as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, which I sort of made up, but which I expected was true, and appropriate to ease any concerns with the turmoil Mattis had caused. At least for now, we seemed to be steady again.
But Syria was still in flux. Over the weekend, Trump decided he wanted another call with Erdogan to make two points: first, don’t attack any US troops in Syria, and second, be sure to attack ISIS and not Kurds, both points being correct, but it was a little late to fill them in after his earlier call with Erdogan and the subsequent publicity.17 So after greetings and opening remarks, Trump said that, first, he wanted Erdogan to get rid of ISIS, and that we would provide assistance if Turkey need it. Second, he pressed Erdogan not to go after the Kurds and kill them, noting that a lot of people liked them for fighting with us for years against ISIS. Turkey and the Kurds should go after the remaining ISIS forces together. Trump acknowledged that such a strategy might be a change for Erdogan, but he stressed again how much support there was for the Kurds in the United States. Trump then came with what he thought was the clincher: the prospect of substantially greater US trade with Turkey. Erdogan took pains to say he loved the Kurds and vice versa, but added that the YPG-PYD-PKK (three Kurdish groups in Turkey and Syria, the nine initials of which Erdogan rattled off as if spelling his own name) were manipulating the Kurds, and did not represent them. He pointed out that his government had Kurdish MP’s and ministers, that the Kurds had a special love and sympathy for him, and that he was the only leader who could conduct big rallies in the Kurdish areas. He had no intention of killing anyone but terrorists. We had heard all this before, and it was standard Erdogan regime propaganda.
Rallies! What an appeal to Trump! At this point, perhaps recognizing he was being drawn into a trap on the Kurds—those Erdogan planned to decimate versus those who loved coming to hear him, a distinction we had no business trying to help Erdogan with—Trump asked me to say what I thought of Erdogan’s comments. On the spur of the moment, I said we should leave it to the upcoming military-to-military discussions to distinguish the terrorists from the non-terrorists. My feeling was that parsing this question would go absolutely nowhere, thereby postponing our departure from Syria.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were quiet. At nine forty-five p.m. Christmas night, my Secret Service detail and I left for Andrews, where, under extraordinary security precautions, Trump, the First Lady, and a small traveling party boarded Air Force One to head for Iraq (eight hours ahead of Washington time). I got some sleep, and woke up in time to see that word of the trip still hadn’t broken and that security was good enough that we could continue to our destination at al-Asad Air Base, where we expected, among other things, to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi and several top officials. Trump also arose “early,” although it was already afternoon Iraq time, and we spent a fair amount of time in his office chatting away because so few others were up yet. We ranged from what he would say to the Army and Marine troops at al-Asad and in the State of the Union address in January, to sending a New Year’s greeting to Xi Jinping and whether Trump should get the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump also raised the widespread political rumor he would dump Pence from the ticket in 2020 and run instead with Haley, asking what I thought. White House gossip was common that Ivanka and Kushner favored this approach, which tied in with Haley’s leaving her position as UN Ambassador in December 2018, thus allowing her to do some politicking around the country before being named to the ticket in 2020. The political argument in Haley’s favor was that she could win back women voters alienated from Trump. By contrast, it was said, the evangelicals supporting Pence had nowhere else to go in 2020, so their votes were not at risk if Haley took his place. I explained it was a bad idea to jettison someone loyal, and that doing so risked alienating people he needed (who could stay home, even if they didn’t vote for Trump’s opponent) without necessarily generating new support because of the replacement. That seemed to be Trump’s thinking as well.
We landed at al-Asad about seven fifteen p.m. local time, in near-total darkness and under the tightest security possible. We careened away from Air Force One in heavily armored Humvees, heading for the tent where the US commanders would meet us. As we drove along, it became clear we were not really certain whether Abdul Mahdi was actually coming or not. For security reasons, he had received minimal notice, but we heard a plane was on the way from Baghdad, the only uncertainty being whether Abdul Mahdi was on it! Greeting the President and the Fi
rst Lady in the tent, arranged with tables, chairs, and flags, were Army Lieutenant General Paul LaCamera, the commander of Operation Inherent Resolve (in Iraq and Syria); Air Force Brigadier General Dan Caine (nicknamed “Raisin’ ”); the Deputy Commander; and several others. I wanted a little more “inherent resolve” in the Administration, so I took LaCamera aside and urged him to stress the threat from Iran in Syria, in addition to whatever else he planned to say.
If I had to pick one clear point in time that saved the US military presence in Syria (at least through the end of my White House tenure), this was it: sitting in this tent, at the makeshift conference table, with the President and First Lady at the head, and the rest of us on the sides, after the obligatory performance before the traveling press pool. The press left about eight p.m., and LaCamera and his colleagues began what I’m sure they thought would be a standard briefing, where they talked and the President listened. Were they in for a surprise! LaCamera got only as far as “It’s crystal clear that we are to get out of Syria,” when Trump interrupted with questions and comments. LaCamera said at one point, “I can protect our interests in Syria while withdrawing, and I can do it from here.” Trump said he had told Erdogan not to attack US forces in Syria, and LaCamera and Caine were explaining what they were currently doing against ISIS when Trump asked, “Can you knock the shit out of them on the way out?” They both responded, “Yes, sir,” and Trump said, “That is my order; take it out from here.” LaCamera proceeded to explain that the US had been seeking to build “partnership capacity” over the years, but Trump interrupted to say he had given repeated extensions of the time needed to defeat ISIS and was tired of doing so. He then asked, “What can we do to protect the Kurds?” and I jumped in to tell the commanders that the President had expressly told Erdogan that he didn’t want harm done to the Kurds who had helped us in Syria. LaCamera and Caine explained they could finish off the ISIS territorial caliphate in the next two to four weeks. “Do it,” said Trump, “you have the okay on that,” asking why Mattis and others couldn’t have finished the job in the last year and a half. Trump came to believe he was hearing a lot of this information for the first time, which may or may not have been true but was his view nonetheless.