by John Bolton;
9 Ibid.
10 See Associated Press, “Macron: France persuaded Trump to strike in Syria,” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/04/15/macron-france-persuaded-trump-strike-syria/518960002/.
11 Iran clearly thought Israel had conducted the attack, and was threatening retaliation. See Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran Threatens Israel Over Air Strike in Syria,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-israel-missile-syria.html?searchResultPosition=1.
12 See Peter Baker et al., “Trump Weighs More Robust Military Strike Against Syria,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/us/politics/trump-military-strike-syria.html.
13 Indeed, May was vigorously criticized by the Opposition for avoiding a vote in the House of Commons, for all the reasons Sedwill explained. See John Rentoul, “Theresa May avoided a vote in parliament on Syrian air strikes because she knew she would lose,” https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-trump-syria-strikes-parliament-vote-britain-russia-chemical-weapons-latest-a8303146.html. Not surprisingly, May’s statement to the House of Commons why she did not seek a parliamentary vote defending that decision did not directly address this point. She offered other grounds, including that “it was a decision which required the evaluation of intelligence and information much of which was of a nature that could not be shared with Parliament.” Ibid. See also Alissa J. Rubin and Stephen Castle, “With Eye on Issues at Home, May and Macron Back Trump on Syria Strikes,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/14/world/europe/france-britain-syria-strikes.html?searchResultPosition=21.
14 See Gordon Rayner and Ben Riley-Smith, “Theresa May stands behind Donald Trump on Syria strikes, as Russia warns against ‘illegal’ intervention,” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/10/theresa-may-joins-donald-trump-emmanuel-macron-condemning-syria/.
15 Russia said publicly that Israeli F-15’s had fired eight missiles at the base. Israeli officials declined public comment, but Israel struck the same base on February 10. See Scott Neuman and Camila Domoneske, “Russia, Syria: Israeli Jets Strike Air Base After Alleged Poison Gas Attack in Douma,” https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/04/09/600765750/russia-syria-israeli-jets-strike-air-base-after-alleged-poison-gas-attack-in-dou. The United States denied attacking Tiyas. See “U.S. denies carrying out missile strike in Syria, Russia says Israel did it,” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-missile-strike-attack-t4-air-base-not-us-retaliation-douma-gas-attack-israel-russia-says/.
16 Among other public confirmations of the call was one by Vladimir Shamanov, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, and former commander in chief of Russian airborne troops. See “President Erdogan, U.S. counterpart Trump, discuss developments in Syria,” https://www.dailysabah.com/syrian-crisis/2018/04/11/president-erdogan-us-counterpart-trump-discuss-developments-in-syria.
17 Earlier, Macron had said publicly he would act unilaterally if Syria again used chemical weapons, an assertion reiterated by his Foreign Minister on April 9: “In reference to a warning by President Emmanuel Macron last month that France would strike unilaterally if Syria used chemical weapons again, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the nation would assume its responsibilities.” Carol Morello and Jenna Johnson, “Trump tweets condemnation of Syria chemical attack, saying Putin shares the blame.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-tweets-condemnation-of-syria-chemical-attack-criticizing-putin-for-sharing-the-blame/2018/04/08/c9c1c0e5-d063-4133-ae4d-e26496f79fff_story.html.
18 See Seth J. Frantzman, “Ankara seeks middle path between U.S. and Russia on Syria,” https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ankara-seeks-middle-path-between-US-and-Russia-on-Syria-549801.
19 See Mehmet Celik, “Ankara exerts diplomatic efforts to end US-Russia row in Syria,” https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2018/04/13/ankara-exerts-diplomatic-efforts-to-end-us-russia-row-in-syria.
20 See Dan Lamothe et al., “US strikes Syrian military airfield in first direct assault on Bashar al-Assad’s government,” https://web.archive.org/web/20170407024143/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-weighing-military-options-following-chemical-weapons-attack-in-syria/2017/04/06/0c59603a-1ae8-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html.
21 See “Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity,” https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity.
22 Dunford and Mattis made these points publicly in a briefing right after the retaliation was concluded. See “Mattis, Dunford Detail Attacks on Syrian Chemical Arsenal,” https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/1493636/mattis-dunford-detail-attacks-on-syrian-chemical-arsenal/.
23 See “Assad forces emptying airports, bases over possible US strikes, Syrian Observatory says,” https://www.dailysabah.com/syrian-crisis/2018/04/11/assad-forces-emptying-airports-bases-over-possible-us-strikes-syrian-observatory-says.
24 See comments by LTG Kenneth McKenzie on April 14, cited in Gareth Davies, “Syria fired 40 missiles ‘at nothing’ after allied air strikes destroyed three Assad chemical sites,” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/russia-claims-ally-syria-shot-71-103-missiles-launched-us-britain/.
25 See “Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with President Emmanuel Macron of France, April 14, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-president-emmanuel-macron-france-15/.
26 See Michael R. Gordon, “US Intelligence Finds Syrian Government Conducted Chlorine Rocket Attack in May,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-intelligence-finds-syrian-government-conducted-chlorine-rocket-attack-in-may-11569513600 and Lara Jakes, “US Concludes Syria Used Chemical Weapons in May Attack,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons-us.html.
CHAPTER 3: AMERICA BREAKS FREE
1 Abe had previously argued that “prioritizing diplomacy and emphasizing the importance of dialogue will not work with North Korea” and that “now is the time to exert the utmost pressure on the North.” He wrote expressly that “I firmly support the United States position that all options are on the table,” using the familiar phrase that includes military force as the unmentioned option. See Shinzo Abe, “Solidarity Against the North Korean Threat,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/opinion/north-korea-shinzo-abe-japan.html.
2 See “Treasury Designates Russian Oligarch, Officials, and Entities in Response to Worldwide Malign Activity,” https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0338.
3 Many policy commentators shared my skepticism. See, e.g., Derek Grossman, “China’s Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea,” https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/01/chinas-reluctance-on-sanctions-enforcement-in-north.html.
4 “Trump calls Iran deal ‘insane’ in meeting with France’s Macron,” https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/24/trump-calls-iran-deal-insane-in-meeting-with-frances-macron.html.
5 Macron revealed this to the press on his own a few days later. See https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/macron-believes-trump-will-scrap-iran-nuclear-deal/50000262-3596907.
6 See Peter Baker and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “Trump Signals Openness to a ‘New Deal’ to Constrain Iran,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/24/world/europe/trump-macron-iran-climate.html?searchResultPosition=22.
7 Macron used this very phrase in the joint press conference following the bilateral meeting. See “Remarks by President Trump and President Macron of France in Joint Press Conference,” April 24, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-president-macron-france-joint-press-conference/.
8 Trump made essentially these same points in the joint press conference followed the closed meeting. See n. 7 above (“But we’ll see also, if I do what some people expect, whether or not it will be possible to do a new deal with solid foundations. Because this is a deal with decayed foundations. It’s a bad deal. It’s a bad structure. It’s falling down.”).
9 Ibid.
10 See, e.g., Caroline Houck, “Trump Calls Europe “as bad as China” on trade,�
� https://www.vox.com/world/2018/7/1/17522984/europe-china-trade-war-trump, quoting Trump in an interview with Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo.
11 See Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “Trump and Merkel Meet One on One, but Don’t See Eye to Eye,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/us/politics/trump-merkel.html?searchResultPosition=6.
12 BBC, “Merkel lobbies Trump on trade and Iran,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43925422.
13 See Judah Ari Gross, “US officials say Israel behind latest Syria strike, preparing for war with Iran,” https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-officials-say-israel-behind-latest-syria-strike-preparing-for-war-with-iran/, quoting Courtney Kube, “Israel seems to be preparing for war with Iran, U.S. officials say,” May 1, 2018, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/israel-seems-be-preparing-war-iran-say-u-s-officials-n870051.
14 See, “Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with Prime Minister Theresa May of the United Kingdom,” May 5, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-prime-minister-theresa-may-united-kingdom-7/.
15 See Boris Johnson, “Don’t Scuttle the Iran Nuclear Deal,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/06/opinion/boris-johnson-trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html.
16 See “Press briefing by National Security Advisor John Bolton on Iran,” May 8, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-national-security-advisor-john-bolton-iran/.
17 See, e.g., Michael Gordon et al., “After Trump’s Threat, White House Convenes a Policy Meeting,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-trumps-threat-to-iran-white-house-convenes-a-policy-meeting-1532597520?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2.
18 See Michael Gordon, “White House Blames Iranian-Backed Militias for Attacking U.S. Facilities in Iraq,” September 11, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-blames-iranian-backed-militias-for-attacking-u-s-facilities-in-iraq-1536707458, quoting White House press secretary Sarah Sanders.
19 See, e.g., Editorial Board, “A Swift Iran Decision: Iranian banks have to be expelled from the global financing network,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-not-so-swift-diplomacy-1539730896.
CHAPTER 4: THE SINGAPORE SLING
1 See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, especially chapters four and eleven.
2 Winston Churchill, Speech in Parliament, May 2, 1935, quoted in John H. Maurer, “Churchill and the Outbreak of the Second World War in Europe,” Orbis, Summer, 2019, p. 313.
3 Gossip to this effect circulated in Seoul after the summit, and I raised the issue with Chung directly, having suspected it myself. Even before traveling to Pyongyang, Chung intimated that US-North Korea talks were part of his mission: “I plan to hold in-depth discussions on various ways to continue talks between not only the South and the North, but also the North and the United States.” See, BBC News, “North Korea’s Kim Jong-un meets South Korea’s envoys,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43282807.
4 See point five in the “Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks,” Beijing, September 19, 2005, https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm: “The Six Parties agreed to take coordinated steps to implement the aforementioned consensus in a phased manner in line with the principle of “commitment for commitment, action for action.”
5 The U.S. and Japan subsequently agreed on a one-year dismantlement program. See note 8, below.
6 See David French, “A Trip Down Memory Lane: In 2015, the Obama Administration Said the Iran Deal Wasn’t Even a ‘Signed Document,’ ” May 10, 2018, https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/iran-nuclear-deal-not-signed-document-not-binding/.
7 See, e.g., Shinzo Abe, “Solidarity Against the North Korean Threat,” September 17, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/opinion/north-korea-shinzo-abe-japan.html..
8 See Adam Mount and Ankit Panda, “North Korea Is Not Denuclearizing,” https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/north-korea-kim-jong-un-trump-nuclear-summit-weapons-missiles/558620/; Joby Warrick, “Suspicious factory underscores challenge of verifying North Korea’s nuclear promises,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/suspicious-factory-underscores-challenge-of-verifying-north-koreas-nuclear-promises/2018/04/21/fad9764e-457d-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html.
9 Nicholas Eberstadt, “North Korea’s Phony Peace Ploy,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/opinion/north-korea-south-korea-peace.html.
10 Given this relative success on timing, I adopted the Moon-Kim one-year period as an accepted agreement. See, e.g., Hyonhee Shin, “U.S. has plan to dismantle North Korea nuclear program within a year: Bolton,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/u-s-has-plan-to-dismantle-north-korea-nuclear-program-within-a-year-bolton-idUSKBN1JR1KP.
11 Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Envoy Hails Bolton’s Ouster and Trump’s Talk of a New Approach,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/world/asia/north-korea-us-nuclear-talks.html?searchResultPosition=1.
12 “Remarks by President Trump and Secretary General Stoltenberg of NATO Before Bilateral Meeting,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-secretary-general-stoltenberg-nato-bilateral-meeting/.
13 See Statement of Ambassador John Bolton, reported in “Security Council Condemns Nuclear Test by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 1718 (2006),” https://www.un.org/press/en/2006/sc8853.doc.htm.
14 Jamie Tarabay, “To experts, North Korea dismantling nuclear site is like destroying evidence,” https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/22/asia/north-korea-destroy-nuclear-site-intl/index.html, quoting Cheryl Rofer: “ ‘If I were going I would want to bring some capability of taking samples, and I would also want to bring a geologist with me. I’d want to have a radiation counter, I would want to go into the tunnel to see if parts of it have caved in in the back, and I would want to take radiation measurements.’ All those samples and tests could yield information on the kinds of weapons that were being tested, she said. ‘Isotope measurements could tell you about the design of the device, it would tell you what kind of bombs they’re making, what they’re making them out of, how much uranium and plutonium is in the bombs. We might be able to infer what they’re planning and the shape of their progress,’ she said.”
15 Ibid.
16 See Christina Maza, “China Tells Trump to Stay Calm as North Korea Threatens to Cancel Historic Talks,” May 17, 2018, https://www.newsweek.com/china-tells-trump-stay-calm-north-korea-threatens-cancel-historic-talks-931275.
17 See Joyce Lee and Heekyong Lee, “North Korea won’t hold talks with ‘incompetent’ South unless differences settled,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-southkorea/north-korea-says-wont-hold-talks-with-incompetent-south-unless-differences-settled-idUSKCN1II0B7.
18 On Monday, May 8, 2019, discussing trade issues with Bob Lighthizer, I told this anecdote about “breaking up with the girl first.” Lighthizer was incredulous, saying “that’s exactly what Trump told me on Friday when I was briefing him on how the negotiations in Beijing had gone!” This was a rare mark of consistency in Trump policy.
19 See Joshua Berlinger, “North Korea warns of nuclear showdown, calls Pence ‘political dummy,’ ” https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/23/politics/mike-pence-north-korea-intl/index.html.
20 See Thomas Maresca and Jane Onyanga-Omara, “South Korean president calls cancellation of Trump-Kim summit ‘very regrettable,’ ” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/05/24/trump-cancels-summit-kim/640452002/.
21 Japan’s public reaction was restrained and supportive of Trump’s cancellation. See Reiji Yoshida and Daisuke Kikuchi, “Tokyo shows united front on Trump-Kim summit cancellation, calling for cooperation with U.S. and South Korea,” https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/05/25/national/politics-diplomacy/tokyo-understands-trumps-cancelation-u-s-north-korea-summit-officials/#.XmEfbKhKiF4.
22 See “Full address by South Korean President Moon Jae-In on May 26 inter-Korea summit,” May 27, 2018, https://www.stra
itstimes.com/asia/east-asia/full-address-by-south-korean-president-moon-jae-in-on-may-26-inter-korea-summit.
23 See “South Korea’s Moon Jae In might join Trump, Kim in Singapore for 3-way summit: Official,” https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-koreas-moon-jae-in-might-join-trump-kim-in-singapore-for-3-way-summit-official.
24 See “Italy’s Conte wants G8 with Russia, not quick end to sanctions,” June 8, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-summit-italy/italys-conte-wants-g8-with-russia-not-quick-end-to-sanctions-idUSKCN1J50MV.
25 There was constant public speculation that China was not enforcing sanctions strictly. See, e.g., Derek Grossman, “China’s Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea,” https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/01/chinas-reluctance-on-sanctions-enforcement-in-north.html; and “China is quietly relaxing its sanctions against North Korea, complicating matters for Trump,” https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fg-china-north-korea-sanctions-2018-story.html.
26 See Gardiner Harris and Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Criticizes ‘Gangster-Like’ U.S. Attitude After Talks with Mike Pompeo,” July 7, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/world/asia/mike-pompeo-north-korea-pyongyang.html.
27 See, e.g., Nuclear Threat Initiative, “North Korea,” https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/nuclear/.
28 See https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/korus-fta/final-text.
29 See “Press Briefing by Press Secretary Sarah Sanders and National Security Officials,” August 2, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-press-secretary-sarah-sanders-national-security-officials-08022018/.
30 Trump also tweeted later that evening that he was looking forward to seeing Kim. See John Wagner, “Trump says he is looking forward to meeting again ‘soon’ with Kim Jong Un,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-says-he-is-looking-forward-to-meeting-again-soon-with-kim-jong-un/2018/08/02/7084654e-963b-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html.