2. Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Decline of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016), 120.
3. See Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better (New York: Dutton, 2011).
4. See Harold James, Europe Reborn, A History 1914–2000 (New York: Routledge, 2015), 231–33.
5. Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James, and Jean-Pierre Landau, The Euro and the Battle of Ideas (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2018).
6. Judt, Postwar, 338.
7. Computed from Ibid., 340.
8. “Transport > Road > Motor Vehicles per 1000 People: Countries Compared,” NationMaster (website), accessed August 06, 2018, http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Road/Motor-vehicles-per-1000-people.
9. David Banister, European Transport Policy and Sustainable Mobility (London: Routledge, 2000), 42.
10. Judt, Postwar, 330.
11. The following paragraphs draw on Daniel Rodgers, Atlantic Crossings: Social Politics in a Progressive Age (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1998). Bernard Harris, The Origins of the British Welfare State: Social Welfare in England and Wales, 1800–1945 (Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004).
12. Harris, British Welfare State, 290.
13. Ibid., 291.
14. See Kenneth Scheve and David Stasavage, Taxing the Rich: A History of Fiscal Fairness in the United States and Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016); “Historical Highest Marginal Income Tax Rates,” Tax Policy Center (website), March 22, 2017, http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-highest-marginal-income-tax-rates.
15. Judith Rollins, All Is Never Said: The Narrative of Odette Harper Hines (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1995), 119; “African Americans in World War II: Fighting for a Double Victory,” National World War II Museum: New Orleans (website), accessed August 7, 2018, https://www.nationalww2museum.org/sites/default/files/2017-07/african-americans.pdf.
16. Martin Luther King, “I Have A Dream . . .” (speech), “March on Washington,” Washington, D.C., August 28, 1963, transcript, https://www.archives.gov/files/press/exhibits/dream-speech.pdf.
17. See Sidney M. Milkis and Jerome M. Mileur, “Lyndon Johnson, The Great Society, and the ‘Twilight’ of the Modern Presidency,” and Frances Fox Piven and Richard A. Cloward, “The Politics of the Great Society,” in The Great Society and the High Tide of Liberalism, ed. Sidney M. Milkis and Jerome M. Mileur (Amherst: University of Massachusetts Press, 2005); as well as the excellent biographies: Robert Caro, The Path to Power (New York: Vintage, 1982) and Doris Kearns Goodwin, Lyndon Johnson and the American Dream (New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 1982).
18. Daniel P. Moynihan, Maximal Feasible Misunderstanding: Community Action in the War on Poverty (New York: Free Press), 168.
19. Milkis and Mileur, Great Society.
20. Judt, Postwar, 334.
21. Enoch Powell, “Rivers of Blood” (speech), Conservative Association meeting, Birmingham, UK, April 20, 1968, transcript, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/3643823/Enoch-Powells-Rivers-of-Blood-speech.html.
22. Gordon, Rise and Decline of American Growth; Cowen, Great Stagnation.
23. Gordon, Rise and Decline of American Growth, 13.
24. Paul A. David, “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” The American Economic Review 80, no. 2, (May, 1990): 355–61.
25. James, Europe Reborn, 390–91.
26. See Chad Syverson, “Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the U.S. Productivity Slowdown,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31 (Spring 2016): 165–86.
27. Judt, Postwar, 541.
28. James, Europe Reborn, 362.
29. Brunnermeier et al, The Euro.
30. James, Europe Reborn, 368.
31. James, Europe Reborn, 400.
CHAPTER 6: THE ICT REVOLUTION COMETH
1. See, for example, David H. Autor, Frank Levy, and Richard J. Murnane, “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 4 (2003): 1279–1333.
2. “Amazon Go,” Amazon, accessed August 08, 2018, https://www.amazon.com/b?node=16008589011.
3. Liz Alderman, “In Sweden, a Cash-Free Future Nears,” The New York Times, December 26, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/business/international/in-sweden-a-cash-free-future-nears.html.
4. James Bessen, “Toil and Technology,” Finance & Development 52, no. 1 (March 2015).
5. Luis Garicano, “Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production,” Journal of Political Economy 108, no. 5 (2000): 874–904.
6. David H. Autor and David Dorn, “The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market,” rev. ed., NBER Working Paper No. 15150, May 2012.
7. Maarten Goos, Alan Manning, and Anna Salomons, “Job Polarization in Europe,” American Economic Review 99, no. 2 (2009): 58–63.
8. Daniel M. Bernhofen, Zouheir El-Sahli, and Richard Kneller, “Estimating the Effects of the Container Revolution on World Trade,” Journal of International Economics 98 (January 2016): 36–50.
9. Ibid.
10. E. H., The Economist Explains, “Why Have Containers Boosted Trade so Much?,” The Economist, May 22, 2013, https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/05/economist-explains-14.
11. Bernhofen et al., “Container Revolution.”
12. Chance Miller, “iPhone X Said to Cost Apple $357 to Make, Gross Margin Higher than iPhone 8,” 9to5Mac (website), November 6, 2017, https://9to5mac.com/2017/11/06/how-much-iphone-x-costs-apple-to-make/.
13. Richard Baldwin, The Great Convergence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2016).
14. Lisa Goldapple, “Cipla: India’s Robin Hood of Drugs,” Project Breakthrough, September 19, 2018, http://breakthrough.unglobalcompact.org/briefs/cipla-indias-robin-hood-of-drugs-yusuf-hamied/.
15. Elena Crivellaro, “The College Wage Premium over Time: Trends in Europe in the Last 15 Years,” in Inequality: Causes and Consequences, ed. Lorenzo Cappellari, Solomon W. Polachek, Konstantinos Tatsiramos (Bingley, UK: Emerald, 2016), 287–328; Robert Valletta, “Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?,” NBER Working Paper No. 22935, December 2016.
16. Alan Blinder, “How Many US Jobs Might Be Offshorable?” World Economics 10, no. 2 (April 2007): 41–78.
17. Martin Neil Baily and Barry P. Bosworth, “US Manufacturing: Understanding Its Past and Its Potential Future,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, no. 1 (2014): 3–26.
18. Daron Acemoglu, David H. Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Brendan Price, “Import Competition and the Great U.S. Employment Sag of the 2000s,” Journal of Labor Economics 34, no. 1 (January 2016): 141–98.
19. Peter S. Goodman, “More Wealth, More Jobs, but Not for Everyone: What Fuels the Backlash on Trade,” The New York Times, September 28, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-wealth-more-jobs-but-not-for-everyone-what-fuels-the-backlash-on-trade.html?_r=0.
20. David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, “Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets,” NBER Working Paper No. 18938, April 2013.
21. David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Jae Song, “Trade Adjustment: Worker Level Evidence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 4 (November 2014): 1799–1860.
22. “Selected Data From Social Security’s Disability Program,” Social Security Administration (website), accessed August 7, 2018, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/dibStat.html.
23. See Amy Goldstein, Janesville: An American Story (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2017).
24. “Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (website), accessed August 7, 2018, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881600A.
25. Congressional Budget Office, “The Distribution of Household Income, 2014” (March 19, 2018), retrieved from https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53597#interactive-graphic2.
26. Paul Beaudry, David A. Green, and Benjamin M. Sand, “The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks,” Journal of Labor Economics 34, no. 1 (January 2016): 199–247.
27. OECD, Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2017), https://doi.org/10.1787/eag-2017-en.
28. OECD, Education at a Glance 2017, 107.
29. “Academic Ranking of World Universities, 2017,” Shanghai Rankings (website), accessed August 7, 2018, http://www.shanghairanking.com/ARWU2017.html.
30. “Table 326.10,” Digest of Education Statistics, National Center for Education Statistics, accessed August 7, 2018, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_326.10.asp.
31. See Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, “Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 1 (2003): 1–41; Anthony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez, “Top Incomes in the Long Run of History,” Journal of Economic Literature 49, no. 1 (2011): 3–71; Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2014).
32. Piketty, Capital.
33. Tobias Buck, “German Inheritance Wave Stokes Fears over Inequality,” Financial Times, May 2, 2018. https://www.ft.com/content/894689c2-4933-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb; “Taxing inheritances is falling out of favour,” The Economist, November 23, 2017, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2017/11/23/taxing-inheritances-is-falling-out-of-favour?frsc=dg%7Ce.
34. Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, and Gabriel Zucman, “Tax Evasion and Inequality,” NBER Working Paper No. 23772, September 2017; and Annette Alstadsæter, Martin Jacob, Wojciech Kopczuk, and Kjetil Telle, “Accounting for Business Income in Measuring Top Income Shares: Integrated Accrual Approach Using Individual and Firm Data From Norway,” NBER Working Paper No. 22888, December 2016.
35. Piketty and Saez, “Income Inequality.”
36. Piketty, Capital.
37. Steven N. Kaplan and Joshua D. Rauh, “Family, Education, and Sources of Wealth among the Richest Americans, 1982–2012,” The American Economic Review 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 158–62.
38. Sherwin Rosen, “The Economics of Superstars,” The American Economic Review 71, no. 5 (December 1981): 845–58.
39. Raghuram Rajan and Julie Wulf, “The Flattening Firm: Evidence from Panel Data on the Changing Nature of Corporate Hierarchies,” The Review of Economics and Statistics 88, no. 4 (November 2006) 759–73.
40. Milton Friedman, “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits,” The New York Times Magazine, September 13, 1970.
41. Michael Jensen and Kevin J. Murphy, “Performance Pay and Top-Management Incentives,” Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 2 (April 1990): 225–64.
42. Andrei Shleifer and Lawrence H. Summers, “Breach of Trust in Hostile Takeovers,” in Corporate Takeovers: Causes and Consequences, ed. Alan J. Auerbach (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988), 33–68; Luigi Zingales, “In Search of New Foundations,” The Journal of Finance 55, no. 4 (August 2000): 1623–53.
43. Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan, “Are CEOs Rewarded for Luck? The Ones without Principles Are,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 116, no. 3 (August 2001): 901–32.
44. See, for example, William A. Galston and Clara Hendrickson, “A Policy at Peace with Itself: Antitrust Remedies for Our Concentrated, Uncompetitive Economy,” Brookings, January 5, 2018, https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-policy-at-peace-with-itself-antitrust-remedies-for-our-concentrated-uncompetitive-economy/.
45. Xiaohui Gao, Jay R. Ritter, and Zhongyan Zhu, “Where Have All the IPOs Gone?” The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 48, no. 6 (December 2013): 1663–92, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109014000015.
46. See Galston and Hendrickson, “Policy at Peace with Itself.”
47. Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin, and Roni Michaely, “Are US Industries Becoming More Concentrated?” August 31, 2017, available at https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/138f/249c43bfec315227a242b305b9764d57a0af.pdf. Of course, average size would also increase if small firms no longer enter.
48. See Sam Peltzman, “Industrial Concentration under the Rule of Reason,” The Journal of Law and Economics 57, no. S3 (August 2014): S101–20.
49. “Too Much of a Good Thing,” The Economist, March 26, 2016, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/03/26/too-much-of-a-good-thing.
50. Sam Peltzman, “Industrial Concentration.”
51. Robert Bork, The Antitrust Paradox: A Policy at War With Itself (New York: Basic Books, 1978).
52. “AT&T and Time Warner Are Cleared to Merge,” The Economist, June 16, 2018, https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21744068-more-consolidation-will-follow-consumers-ought-worry-att-and-time-warner-are-cleared?frsc=dge.
53. Grullon et al., “Are US Industries Becoming More Concentrated?”
54. See John Van Reenen, “Increasing Differences Between Firms: Market Power and the Macro-Economy,” paper presented at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, August 2018, https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2018/papersandhandouts/824180729van%20reenenpaper.pdf?la=en.
55. See, for example, Nicolas Crouzet and Janice Eberly, “Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles,” paper presented at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, August 2018, https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2018/papersandhandouts/824180810eberlycrouzetpaper.pdf?la=en.
56. Jae Song, David J. Price, Fatih Guvenen, Nicholas Bloom, and Till Von Wachter, “Firming Up Inequality,” rev. ed., NBER Working Paper No. 21199, June 2015.
57. These remarks are based on ongoing work with Luigi Zingales.
58. Collen Cunningham, Florian Ederer, and Song Ma, “Killer Acquisitions,” Working Paper, Yale School of Management, 2018.
59. Steve Schlackman, “How Mickey Mouse Keeps Changing Copyright Law,” Art Law Journal, February 15, 2014, https://atp.orangenius.com/how-mickey-mouse-keeps-changing-copyright-law/.
60. See Brink Lindsey and Steven Teles, The Captured Economy: How the Powerful Enrich Themselves, Slow Down Growth, and Increase Inequality (New York: Oxford University Press, 2017).
61. “U.S. Patent Statistics Chart Calendar Years 1963–2015,” United States Patent and Trademark Office, accessed August 07, 2018, https://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/taf/us_stat.htm.
62. Alan Krueger, “Reflections on Dwindling Worker Bargaining Power and Monetary Policy,” Luncheon Address at the Jackson Hole Symposium 2018, https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2018/papersandhandouts/824180824kruegerremarks.pdf?la=en.
63. Jessica Jeffers, “The Impact of Restricting Labor Mobility on Corporate Investment and Entrepreneurship,” Working Paper, University of Chicago—Booth School of Business, 2018.
64. Dan Andrews, Chiara Criscuolo, and Peter Gal, Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries, vol. 2 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2015).
65. David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson, and John Van Reenen, “Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms,” NBER Working Paper 23396.
66. See Lindsey and Teles, Captured Economy.
67. Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger, “Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market,” Journal of Labor Economics 31, no. 2 (Part 2, April 2013): S173–S202.
68. “A Lapse in Concentration,” The Economist, October 1, 2016, https://www.econ
omist.com/node/21707838/print.
69. Kleiner and Krueger, “Occupational Licensing.”
70. Morris Kleiner and Evgeny Vorotnikov, “Analyzing Occupational Licensing Among the States,” Journal of Regulatory Economics 52, no. 2 (2017): 132–158.
71. “Occupational Licensing Blunts Competition and Boosts Inequality,” The Economist, February 17, 2018, https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21737053-how-high-earning-professions-lock-their-competitors-out-market-occupational?frsc=dge.
72. See, for example, John Van Reenen, “Increasing Differences Between Firms: Market Power and the Macro-Economy,” presented at the Jackson Hole Conference, 2018; and Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon, “Declining Competition and Investment in the US,” NBER Working Paper no. 23583, July 2017.
73. Martin Hellwig, “A Critique of Corporate Governane Theory” (presentation), GCGC Conference, Stockholm, June 10–12, 2016. Powerpoint presentation can be accessed at http://gcgc.global/presentations/contracts-versus-institutions-a-critique-of-corporate-governance-theory-2/.
74. Nuno Fernandes, Miguel Ferreira, Pedro Matos, and Kevin J. Murphy, “Are U.S. CEOs Paid More? New International Evidence,” Working Paper, University of Southern California, 2011.
75. “Employment and Unemployment (LFS)–Database,” eurostat (website), European Commission, accessed August 07, 2018, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/lfs/data/database?p_p_id=NavTree portletprod_WAR_NavTreeportletprod_INSTANCE_IFjhoVbmPFHt&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1.
CHAPTER 7: THE REEMERGENCE OF POPULISM IN THE INDUSTRIAL WEST
1. Joan C. Williams, “What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class,” Harvard Business Review, November 10, 2016, https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class.
2. Craig J. Calhoun, Nations Matter: Culture, History, and the Cosmopolitan Dream (London: Routledge, 2011).
3. See, for instance, Ronald F. Inglehart and Pippa Norris, “Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash,” Harvard Kennedy School, Faculty Research Working Paper Series, August 2016.
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