Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics

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Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics Page 45

by Richard H. Thaler


  Ibrahim (game show contestant), 304–5

  ice companies, 210

  ideas42, 184, 344, 345

  identified lives, 13

  Illinois, 328

  impartial spectator, 88, 103

  incentive compatible situations, 60

  incentives, 47–49, 50, 52

  monetary, 353

  incentives critique of behavioral economics, 47–49, 50, 52

  India, 364

  individual investment behavior, 184

  Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), 310–11, 370

  induced value methodology, 40–41, 149–53, 151

  inertia, in savings plan, 313

  inflation, “real” wages reduced by, 131–32

  Influence (Cialdini), 335, 336

  Innovations for Poverty Action, 342

  inside view, 191

  outside view vs., 186–87

  instant endowment effect, 154

  Intelligent Investor, The (Graham), 219, 220

  interest rates, 77–78, 79, 350

  intertemporal choice, 88–99

  Into Thin Air (Krakauer), 356–57

  intrauterine device (IUD), 342

  “Invest Now, Drink Later, Spend Never” (Shafir and Thaler), 71

  invisible hand, 52, 87

  invisible handwave critique of behavioral economics, 51–53, 149, 209

  iPhone, 280, 326

  Iran, 130

  Irrational Exuberance (Shiller), 234

  irrelevance theorem and behavioral economics, 164–67

  IRS, 314–15

  iTunes, 135–36

  Ivester, Douglas, 134–35

  Iwry, Mark, 314–15, 316

  Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), 344

  JC Penney, 62–63

  Jensen, Michael, 51–52, 53, 105

  and efficient market hypothesis, 205, 207, 208

  Jevons, William Stanley, 88, 90

  Joey (doll), 129

  Johnson, Eric, xv, 82, 180n, 299, 300

  on default organ donations, 327–28

  Johnson, Ron, 62

  Johnson, Steven, 39–40

  Jolls, Christine, 184, 257, 258, 260, 269

  Jordan, Michael, 19

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 53–54

  Journal of Economic Perspectives, 170–75

  Journal of Finance, 243

  Journal of Financial Economics, 208

  judgment, 179n–80n

  “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” (Kahneman and Tversky), 22–23, 24

  just noticeable difference (JND), 32–33

  Kahneman, Daniel, 21, 22–23, 24, 29, 36, 103n, 104, 125, 126, 140, 148, 157, 162, 176, 221, 335, 338, 353, 357

  and “as if” critique of behavioral economics, 46

  in behavioral economics debate, 159, 160

  in Behavioral Economics Roundtable, 181, 183, 185

  book edited by, 187

  on changes in wealth, 30–31

  endowment effect studied by, 149–55

  equity premium puzzle studied by, 197–98

  on extreme forecasts with flimsy data, 218, 219, 223

  framing studied by, 18

  hypothetical choices defended by, 38, 82

  lack of incentives in experiments of, 47–48

  and “learning” critique of behavioral economics, 49

  on long-shot odds, 80–81

  narrow framing work of, 186–87, 191

  Sunstein’s collaboration with, 258

  Thaler’s first meeting with, 36–37

  Thaler’s laziness praised by, xv–xvi

  on theory-induced blindness, 93

  and Tversky’s cancer, xiii–xiv

  two-system view of mind, 103, 109

  and Ultimatum Game, 140, 141, 267

  unambiguous questions studied by, 295–96

  Wanner given advice by, 177

  Kan, Raymond, 243

  Karlan, Dean, 19

  Kashyap, Anil, 272, 273

  Katrina, Hurricane, 133, 327

  Keynes, John Maynard, 94–95, 96

  beauty contest analogy of, 210–11, 212, 214

  and behavioral macroeconomics, 349

  on conventional wisdom, 210, 292

  decline of interest in ideas of, 209

  as forerunner of behavioral finance, 209

  as investor, 209, 219

  on market anomalies, 209–10, 219

  kidneys, auctions for, 130

  Kitchen Safe, 107n

  Kleidon, Allan, 167–68, 232

  KLM, 356

  “Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy” (Staw), 65

  Knetsch, Jack, 126, 127–28, 140, 148–49, 267

  Kohl’s, 62

  Kokonas, Nick, 138–39

  Korobkin, Russell, 269

  Krakauer, Jon, 356–57

  Krueger, Alan B., 139n, 359, 372

  Kuhn, Thomas, 167–68, 169, 171, 172, 349

  Kunreuther, Howard, 25

  Laboratory Experimentation in Economics: Six Points of View (Roth), 148

  Labor Department, U.S., 316

  Laibson, David, 110, 183, 315n, 353

  Lamont, Owen, 244, 250

  law and economics, 257–69

  law of large numbers, 194–95

  law of one price, 237–39, 244, 247, 248, 250, 348

  learning critique of behavioral economics, 49–51, 153

  Leclerc, France, 257

  Lee, Charles, 239

  closed-end fund paper of, 240–43, 244

  Leno, Jay, 134

  Lester, Richard, 44–45

  Letwin, Oliver, 331

  Levitt, Steven, 354

  Lewin, Kurt, 338, 340

  liar loans, 252

  Liberal Democrats, U.K., 332

  libertarian paternalism, 322, 323–25

  “Libertarian Paternalism Is Not an Oxymoron” (Sunstein and Thaler), 323–25

  Lichtenstein, Sarah, 36, 48

  life, value of, see value of a life

  life-cycle hypothesis, 95–96, 97, 98, 106, 164

  “Life You Save May Be Your Own, The” (Schelling), 12–13, 14

  limits of arbitrage, 249, 288, 349

  Lintner, John, 166, 226, 229

  Liquid Assets (Ashenfelter), 68

  List, The, 10, 20–21, 24, 25, 31, 33, 36, 39, 43, 58, 68, 303, 347

  List, John, 354

  lives, statistical vs. identified, 13

  loans, for automobiles, 121–23

  Loewenstein, George, 88, 111, 176, 180–81, 362

  in Behavioral Economics Roundtable, 181

  effort project of, 199–201

  paternalism and, 323

  London, 248

  Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), 249, 251

  loss aversion, 33–34, 52, 58–59, 154, 261

  dividends and, 166

  of managers, 187–89, 190

  myopic, 195, 198

  Lott, John, 265–66

  Lovallo, Dan, 186, 187

  Lowenstein, Roger, xv–xvi, 12

  LSV Asset Management, 228

  Lucas, Robert, 159

  Luck, Andrew, 289

  MacArthur Foundation, 184

  Machiguenga people, 364

  Machlup, Fritz, 45

  macroeconomics:

  behavioral, 349–52

  rational expectations in, 209

  Macy’s, 62, 63

  Madrian, Brigitte, 315–17

  Magliozzi, Ray, 32

  Magliozzi, Tom, 32–33

  Major League Baseball, 282

  “make it easy” mantra, 337–38, 339–40

  Malkiel, Burton, 242

  managers:

  growth, 214–15

  gut instinct and, 293

  loss aversion of, 187–89, 190

  risk aversion of, 190–91

  value, 214–15

  mandated choice, 328–29

  marginal, definition of, 27

  marginal analysis, 44

  marginal
propensity to consume (MPC), 94–95, 98

  markets, in equilibrium, 44, 131, 150, 207

  Markowitz, Harry, 208

  marshmallow experiment, 100–101, 102n, 178, 314

  Marwell, Gerald, 145

  Mas, Alexandre, 372

  Massey, Cade, 194, 278–79, 282, 289

  Matthew effect, 296n

  McCoy, Mike, 281–82

  McDonald’s, 312

  McIntosh, Donald, 103

  mean reversion, 222–23

  Mechanical Turk (Amazon), 127

  Meckling, William, 41, 105

  Mehra, Raj, 191

  mental accounting, 54, 55, 98, 115, 116, 118, 257

  bargains and rip-offs, 57–63

  budgeting, 74–79

  and equity premium puzzle, 198

  on game show, 296–301, 297

  getting behind in, 80–84

  house money effect, 81–82, 83–84, 193n

  of savings, 310

  sunk costs, 21, 52, 64–73

  “two-pocket,” 81–82

  Merton, Robert K., 296n

  “Methodology of Positive Economics, The” (Friedman), 45–46

  Mian, Atif, 78

  Miljoenenjacht, see Deal or No Deal

  Miller, Merton, 159, 167–68, 206, 208

  annoyed at closed-end fund paper, 242–43, 244, 259

  irrelevance theorem of, 164–65, 166–67

  Nobel Prize won by, 164

  Thaler’s appointment at University of Chicago, reaction to, 255, 256

  Minnesota, 335

  Mischel, Walter, 100–101, 102, 103, 178, 314

  mispricing, 225

  models:

  beta–delta, 110

  of homo economicus, 4–5, 6–7, 8–9, 23–24, 180

  imprecision of, 23–24

  optimization-based, 5–6, 8, 27, 43, 207

  Modigliani, Franco:

  consumption function of, 94, 95–96, 97, 98, 309

  irrelevance theorem of, 164–65

  Nobel Prize won by, 163–64

  Moore, Michael, 122

  More Guns, Less Crime (Lott), 265

  Morgenstern, Oskar, 29

  mortgage brokers, 77–78

  mortgages, 7, 77–79, 252, 345

  mugs, 153, 155, 263, 264–66, 264

  Mullainathan, Sendhil, 58n, 183–84, 366

  Mulligan, Casey, 321–22

  Murray, Bill, 49–50

  mutual fund portfolios, 84

  mutual funds, 242

  myopic loss aversion, 195, 198

  Nagel, Rosemarie, 212

  naïve agents, 110–11

  Nalebuff, Barry, 170

  narrow framing, 185–91

  and effort project, 201

  NASDAQ, 250, 252

  Nash, John, 212

  Nash equilibrium, 212, 213n, 367

  National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 35, 236, 244, 349

  National Football League, 139n

  draft in, 11, 277–91, 281, 283, 285, 286

  rookie salaries in, 283

  salary cap in, 282–83

  surplus value of players in, 285–86, 285, 286, 288

  National Public Radio, 32, 305

  naturally occurring experiments, 8

  NESTA, 343

  Net Asset Value (NAV) fund, 238–39, 241

  Netherlands, 248, 296–301

  neuro-economics, 177, 182

  New Contrarian Investment Strategy, The (Dreman), 221–22

  New Orleans Saints, 279

  New York, 137

  New Yorker, 90–91, 91, 92

  New York Stock Exchange, 223, 226, 232, 248

  New York Times, 292, 327, 328

  New York Times Magazine, xv–xvi, 12

  Next Restaurant, 138–39

  NFL draft, 11, 277–91, 281, 283, 285, 286, 295

  Nick (game show contestant), 304–5

  Nielsen SoundScan, 135

  Nixon, Richard, 363

  Nobel, Alfred, 23n

  Nobel Prize, 23, 40, 207

  no free lunch principle, 206, 207, 222, 225, 226n, 227, 230, 233–36, 234, 236, 251, 255

  noise traders, 240–42, 247, 251

  nomenclature, importance of, 328–29

  Norman, Don, 326

  normative theories, 25–27

  “Note on the Measurement of Utility, A” (Samuelson), 89–94

  no trade theorem, 217

  Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein), 325–26, 330, 331–32, 333, 335, 345

  nudges, nudging, 325–29, 359

  number game, 211–14, 213

  Obama, Barack, 22

  occupations, dangerous, 14–15

  Odean, Terry, 184

  O’Donnell, Gus, 332–33

  O’Donoghue, Ted, 110, 323

  Odysseus, 99–100, 101

  Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), 343–44

  Office of Management and Budget, 343

  offices, 270–76, 278

  “one-click” interventions, 341–42

  open-end funds, 238

  opportunity costs, 17, 18, 57–58, 59, 73

  of poor people, 58n

  optimal paternalism, 323

  optimization, 5–6, 8, 27, 43, 161, 207, 365

  Oreo experiment, 100–101, 102n, 178, 314

  organizations, theory of, 105, 109

  organs:

  donations of, 327–28

  markets for, 130

  Osborne, George, 331

  Oullier, Olivier, 333

  outside view, inside view vs., 186–87

  overconfidence, 6, 52, 124, 355

  and high trading volume in finance markets, 217–18

  in NFL draft, 280, 295

  overreaction:

  in financial markets, 219–20, 222–24, 225–29

  generalized, 223–24

  to sense of humor, 218, 219, 223

  value stocks and, 225–29

  Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law, 269

  Palm and 3Com, 244–49, 246, 250, 348

  paradigms, 167–68, 169–70

  Pareto, Vilfredo, 93

  parking tickets, 260

  passions, 7, 88, 103

  paternalism, 269, 322

  dislike of term, 324

  libertarian, 322, 323–25

  path dependence, 298–300

  “pay as you earn” system, 335

  payment depreciation, 67

  Pearl Harbor, Japanese bombing of, 232

  P/E effect, 219–20, 222–23, 233, 235

  pensions, 9, 198, 241, 320, 357–58

  permanent income hypothesis, 95

  Peter Principle, 293

  pharmaceutical companies, 189–90

  Pigou, Arthur, 88, 90

  plane tickets, 138

  planner-doer model, 104–10

  Plott, Charlie, 40, 41, 48, 49, 148, 149, 177, 181

  poker, 80, 81–82, 99

  poor, 58n

  Posner, Richard, 259–61, 266

  Post, Thierry, 296

  poverty, decision making and, 371

  Power, Samantha, 330

  “Power of Suggestion, The” (Madrian and Shea), 315

  practice, 50

  predictable errors, 23–24

  preferences:

  change in, 102–3

  revealed, 86

  well-defined, 48–49

  pregnancy, teenage, 342

  Prelec, Drazen, 179

  Prescott, Edward, 191, 192

  present bias (hyperbolic discounting), 91–92, 110, 227n

  and NFL draft, 280, 287

  savings and, 314

  presumed consent, in organ donations, 328–29

  price controls, 363

  price/earnings ratio (P/E), 219–20, 222–23, 233, 235

  prices:

  buying vs. selling, 17, 18–19, 20, 21

  rationality of, 206, 222, 230–33, 231, 237, 251–52

  variability of stock, 230–33, 231, 367

&n
bsp; price-to-rental ratios, 252

  principal-agent model, 105–9, 291

  Prisoner’s Dilemma, 143–44, 145, 301–5, 302

  “Problem of Social Cost, The” (Coase), 263–64

  profit maximization, 27, 30

  promotional pricing strategy, 62n

  prompted choice (in organ donation), 327–29

  prospect theory, 25–28, 295, 353

  acceptance of, 38–39

  and “as if” critique of behavioral economics, 46

  and consumer choice, 55

  and equity premium puzzle, 198

  expected utility theory vs., 29

  surveys used in experiments of, 38

  psychological accounting, see mental accounting

  “Psychology and Economics Conference Handbook,” 163

  “Psychology and Savings Policies” (Thaler), 310–13

  Ptolemaic astronomy, 169–70

  public goods, 144–45

  Public Goods Game, 144–46

  Punishment Game, 141–43, 146

  Pythagorean theorem, 25–27

  qualified default investment alternatives, 316

  quantitative analysis, 293

  Quarterly Journal of Economics, 197, 201

  quasi-hyperbolic discounting, 91–92

  quilt, 57, 59, 61, 65

  Rabin, Matthew, 110, 181–83, 353

  paternalism and, 323

  racetracks, 80–81, 174–75

  Radiolab, 305

  randomized control trials (RCTs), 8, 338–43, 344, 371

  in education, 353–54

  Random Walk Down Walk Street, A (Malkiel), 242

  rational expectations, 98, 191

  in macroeconomics, 209

  rational forecasts, 230–31

  rationality:

  bounded, 23–24, 29, 162

  Chicago debate on, 159–63, 167–68, 169, 170, 205

  READY4K!, 343

  real business cycle, 191

  real estate speculation, 372

  rebates, 121–22, 363

  recessions, 131–32

  fiscal policy in, 209

  reciprocity, 182

  Reder, Mel, 159

  Reeves, Richard, 330, 332

  reference price, 59, 61–62

  regression toward the mean, 222–23

  research and development, 189

  reservation price, 150

  retirement, savings for, see savings, for retirement

  return, risk vs., 225–29

  returns, discounts and, 242

  revealed preferences, 86

  “right to carry” law, 265n

  risk:

  measurement of, 225–29

  return vs., 225–29

  “Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers” (Samuelson), 194

  risk aversion, 28–29, 33, 83, 84

  crowds and, 301, 369

  on Deal or No Deal, 298–99

  equity premium and, 191–92

  of managers, 190–91

  moderate vs. extreme, 298–99

  risk premium, 14–16, 226

  irrationality of, 16–17

  risk-seeking behavior, 81, 83

  roadside stands, 146–47

  Robie House, 270

  Rochester, University of, 41, 51, 205, 216

 

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