by Larry Bond
“Dr. Patterson, the floor is yours.”
“Thank you, Admiral Burroughs. Gentlemen, it is the collective judgment of the intelligence community and the National Security Council that a war between the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and the People’s Republic of China is likely. Indeed, it may have already begun. We do not understand why one, or both, nations felt compelled to adopt hostile measures, but indications of large-scale military action are growing.”
Okay, this adequately constitutes “considerably worse,” Jerry thought to himself, as he remembered Joanna’s earlier dire statement.
“But to understand the current state of affairs,” Patterson clicked her remote, moving to her next slide, “you’ll need a little historical background. The South China Sea has been a contentious area for nearly eighty years, but the current dispute started in 1968, when petroleum deposits were discovered in the Spratly Island archipelago. Since then, there have been claims and counterclaims by over half a dozen nations, none of which can be justified under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
“Military action in the Spratlys had been rare, with only one real engagement. That battle was over the Johnson South Reef in the spring of 1988. China won handily, seizing the reef, sinking three Vietnamese ships, and killing seventy-two Vietnamese sailors and soldiers, most of whom were gunned down while up to their knees in water. Johnson South Reef, like many in the Spratly chain, is underwater at high tide.
“For the most part, the ‘fighting’ over the Spratlys has been done with words and the occasional raid to raise a flag on a claimed, but unmanned reef. However, the harassment of oil exploration ships, oceanographic research ships, and fishing vessels has been steadily increasing. In 2011, China and Vietnam started holding regular naval exercises in the Spratly Islands, often with live-fire drills. This has led to both nations beefing up the defenses of their outposts. Other South China Sea littoral nations followed suit.
“The situation really started to go downhill in late 2014 when a Vietnamese warship collided with, and sank, a Chinese fishing vessel. The nationalistic furor that followed this incident led to the Chinese Communist Party’s announcement in the spring of 2015 that the Spratly Islands were a ‘core national interest’ to China. The shockwaves from that declaration sent every nation in the region to a higher state of alert.”
This was huge. Between the upgrading of outpost defenses and the strong political rhetoric, the entire South China Sea was now a powder keg. All that was needed for war was for someone to light the fuze, something Jerry guessed had already happened.
“Eleven days ago, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning triggered a bottom influence mine as she departed Yalong Bay. The damage was severe, rendering her starboard propulsion shafts and rudder useless, and causing significant shock damage to her engine rooms. The ship managed to get back to the pier, but it took the crew hours to finally contain the flooding. An official press release stated that Liaoning had suffered an unspecified engineering casualty.
“Exhaustive analysis by the intelligence community reveals there is only one possible mining platform—a Vietnamese Kilo-class submarine.”
Jerry was as awestruck as the others by Patterson’s claim. He simply could not comprehend why Vietnam would even consider attacking her much larger, and considerably more powerful neighbor. It certainly did much to explain the attack on the merchant.
“Four days ago a Type 093 SSN torpedoed the Vietnamese merchant vessel Vinaship Sea. Commander Mitchell’s submarine witnessed the attack and his report is in your briefing binders.”
All eyes seemed to focus on Jerry as Patterson continued speaking. Pascovich nudged him, his facial expression begging for details. Jerry mouthed the word, “Later.”
“In his report, Commander Mitchell’s noted a large secondary explosion after the Vinaship Sea was torpedoed. Such a strong blast was inconsistent with her listed cargo of coal. In addition, he also reported that the ship was significantly off course for her claimed destination.” Patterson smiled as she advanced the slide.
“Your observations were correct, Jerry. The merchant ship was actually heading toward the Vietnamese-held island of Southwest Cay in the northern Spratlys. Her cargo, based on COMINT information, was advanced surface-to-air missile systems, radars, anti-aircraft artillery, munitions, food, and fuel for the garrison—enough for the defenders to hold out for several weeks.”
Jerry heard Pascovich whistle softly and say, “Hoollyy shit!”
“In conclusion,” said Patterson, highlighting the bullets with her laser pointer, “both sides have taken shots at each other. However, it is significant to note that only submarines have been used to date. And while we believe the likelihood for continued hostilities is high, we simply don’t understand the nature of this conflict. What triggered the Vietnamese attack? Is the upcoming PLAN exercise part of the puzzle? There are just too many unknowns right now. This is why the president is asking for your help. He needs more information if he is to respond appropriately to this crisis. The goal is to defuse it diplomatically; hopefully before a full-scale war starts. Are there any questions?”
There were plenty. Dr. Patterson went over many of the possible causes: the Chinese diversion of river water from Vietnam, significantly reducing the latter’s rice crops. There were arguments over the rights to fishing grounds, and of course, China’s ever-growing need for oil. The bottom line, as Jerry saw it, be it water, fish, or oil, China needed more resources to support its population and economy. In the past, they’d relied on diplomacy, and occasional bullying, to get their way. Could their need be so great that they had to up the ante?
Jerry asked, “Dr. Patterson, is there any evidence of China facing some sort of major economic problem?”
“Not that we know of, Jerry. They’ve had problems, but have weathered them, possibly better than we have.”
“Dr. Patterson,” interrupted Halsey. “In my opinion, there has to be a link between the events you discussed and the exercise. Is there a chance that the Chinese are using the exercise to hide an attack?”
“There’s always a possibility, Commander Halsey. However, the Chinese have been far more open about this exercise because of its magnitude and location. Based on past exercises, with the exception of its size, there doesn’t appear to be anything unusual about this one. But that’s why you and Jerry were assigned to monitor the exercise, to see if their actions match their words.”
“Are you suggesting that the Vietnamese are just being paranoid?” pushed Halsey.
“I’m not suggesting anything of the sort,” Patterson responded tersely. “It is certainly a possibility that the Vietnamese could view the exercise as a significant threat. Whether or not that perception is real or imaginary, I can’t say. But Vietnam would only act if it felt it had no other option, which inevitably leads back to the assumption of a Chinese first strike. We’ve looked into this premise hard, and we just can’t find a good motivation for China to want to go to war. The repercussions would be huge, the damage to their economy significant.”
“And yet, the Vietnamese have done poked the dragon in the eye,” remarked Dobson sarcastically. “The Vietnamese may be paranoid, but they aren’t stupid. Something is missing from this picture.”
“Correct, Captain, and it’s your job to find out,” boomed Simonis. “Gentlemen, you each have detailed orders for your boat in your binder. But it comes down to this. You are to probe, watch, and report any movements of PLAN and Vietnamese naval vessels, and in particular submarines. Collect signals intelligence in your respective areas, with an emphasis on command and control communications. And you are to remain undetected at all times.”
“Captains, I must emphasize the need for absolute stealth on this mission,” echoed Burroughs as he rose. “For now, it appears that neither side is aware that we know and understand the significance of these events. That’s an advantage we need to retain. Do your snooping, learn what you can, but use your good judgment when it c
omes to communicating your findings. I know I’m preaching to the choir, but this comes from high up the chain. You cannot be detected. Clear?”
“Yes, sir!” replied the four skippers.
Simonis walked up to the podium and brought up another slide with a chart of the Chinese coastline. “Your patrol areas are as follows. North Dakota will position herself off Hainan Island, monitoring the naval bases at Yulin and Yalong Bay. Commander Mitchell, you’ll send one of your reconnaissance UUVs to the west to monitor the approaches from the Vietnamese submarine base at Nha Trang.”
“Understood, sir,” Jerry replied as he wrote down some notes. The orders would have all the details, but he needed a few cryptic reminders to make sure he covered the basics when he briefed Thigpen.
The commodore continued. Santa Fe would be stationed off Zhanjiang, the South Sea Fleet’s main port. Texas was to watch Guangzhou, as well as picking up any ships coming down from the East Sea Fleet. Oklahoma City was to be placed off Ningbo, the East Sea Fleet’s main base. She was to provide a heads-up for any ships coming from either the East or North Sea Fleets and heading down the coast. It was a lot of real estate for four submarines to cover, but Jerry approved of the deployment.
Simonis finished up the overview of the patrol orders with the sortie schedule. “While the Chinese may or may not be aware there are four boats here at Guam right now, I don’t plan on making it easy for them. As far as their imagery satellites are concerned, there is only one boat here. I intend for them to see only one on their next pass. Therefore, North Dakota departs first, tonight, at 2100. Three hours later Texas will leave. Three hours after that Oklahoma City will sortie, followed by Santa Fe tomorrow afternoon.”
Dobson’s head popped up; he appeared confused. Simonis saw his reaction. “I switched yours and Halsey’s departure around, Bruce. Santa Fe has some repairs that require tender support, so she’ll leave last.” Halsey looked annoyed with the commodore’s comment.
“Okay, people, that about wraps this pre-patrol briefing up,” declared Simonis. “Are there any other questions? Last chance.”
“Yes, sir, I have one,” Dobson replied. “What are my rules of engagement?”
“I believe the order ‘do not get detected’ addresses that, Captain.” Simonis’s voice had an edge to it.
“Commodore, we are taking our boats into a potential war zone. I’ll do my damnedest not to be seen or heard, but in the unlikely event I’m picked up, and somebody starts shooting at me, what are my options, sir?”
Jerry wanted to hear Simonis’s answer to the question as well, as it was at the top of his list. There was an awkward silence; Simonis was visibly tight and glanced over toward Rear Admiral Burroughs. It was the admiral that finally answered.
“The situation is very precarious, Captain. We don’t want to accidentally start a war because one of our actions was misinterpreted. There are individuals who are concerned that a loosely defined ROE would increase that risk. However, a hyperconservative one doesn’t work either.”
Burroughs left his chair and walked over to the conference table. Resting his weight on the table, he leaned forward, an intense look on his face.
“If after every possible measure has been taken to avoid detection, or to break contact if detected, if there is absolutely no other way to evade a hostile unit that is firing at you, you may defend yourselves. I will trust your judgment; you’ve been vetted and trained for independent command, and I’m not about to hold your hand. But shooting back has to be the very last course of action, and only to protect your boat. Understood?”
“Absolutely, Admiral,” replied Dobson. The other three COs nodded their acknowledgment.
“Gentlemen, this concludes the briefing. Please see my operations officer, Commander Walker, in the back to get your binders wrapped for you to take back to your boats,” ordered Simonis.
Jerry shook his fellow captains’ hands and wished them good luck. While Dobson, Halsey, and Pascovich headed to the back of the conference room, Jerry walked up to Patterson. She was standing alone; Burroughs and Simonis were off to the side talking intensely about something.
“Joanna, one last question.”
“Yes, Jerry, what is it?”
“Isn’t it kind of a contradiction to say there is a high probability of war, and at the same time say there is no rational reason for said war?”
Patterson took a deep breath; she looked worn and perhaps a bit irritated. “Welcome to my world, Jerry. But yes, it’s a bit of a mystery. One that we’re hoping you can help answer.”
Joanna looked over his shoulder, making sure no one would hear her but Jerry. “We’re still working the problem, Jerry. Trust me, four submarines are not the only collection assets we are putting on this crisis. What I told you is what we know, what we don’t know, and what we think. I didn’t say it would make sense.”
Jerry caught her slight smile at the end. Chuckling, he said, “Touché. Well, when you do figure it out, don’t forget us minions in the trenches.”
“You’ll be kept informed. I’ll make sure of that.”
“Thanks, Joanna. Oh, and one thing to pass on if you think it’s appropriate. My time with the SEALs beat it into me that there better be at least a Plan B, if not a Plan C. The president needs to be thinking about what he’ll do if this doesn’t work. Because my crew will be on the firing line, dealing with the results, regardless of whether or not there is a backup plan. It would be good to know if we can expect any help.”
“I can assure you, Jerry. The president is well aware, and we are looking into contingency planning.”
“That’s all I need to hear,” replied Jerry. “Give my best to Lowell, and you’ll be hearing from me.”
“Be careful, Jerry,” Joanna croaked as she gave him another hug.
4
COVERT ALLIANCE
22 August 2016
Tokyo University, Waseda Campus
Hongo, Bunkyo Ward, Tokyo
It had not started well. Then it got worse.
The Littoral Alliance, which appeared to be the most popular label for the new collaboration, was supposed to be a secret from the Chinese. Therefore, Komamura had suggested having the first face-to-face meeting of the principals at his university. The University of Tokyo was one of the most prestigious schools in Asia, and its Graduate School of Economics sponsored a nonstop calendar of international seminars and conferences. The Chinese would be much less likely to notice the heads of several Asian navies in one place if they met at his school instead of a military base.
It should have been trivial for one of Todai’s most famous professors to reserve several seminar rooms. But the school had needed to know what conference the rooms were for. So Komamura had invented one, on “maritime economics,” and then had to invent a reason why information on the “conference” should not appear on the school’s Web page or in the newsletter. And he had to submit a preliminary list of attendees at least a week before the conference, and a final list within twenty-four hours of the opening session …
There seemed to be a hundred details, each requiring phone calls and e-mails. And with every interaction, he’d wondered if this was the one the Chinese would spot. Regardless of its innocence, each communication was a data point, a stone in the river. Given enough rocks, the Chinese might find a path across.
His classwork suffered. Even after unloading every duty he could on his hard-working graduate students, there were certain tasks he refused to delegate. Doctoral dissertations needed to be reviewed, lecture notes updated. It was work, but work he enjoyed because of his fascination with economics.
And then there were the frequent meetings with Admiral Kubo. Komamura looked forward to them, and he believed the chief of the maritime staff enjoyed the break from his demanding routine.
Kubo Noriaki was a small, square-faced man, legendary for the long hours he put in at his desk, and his love of sumo wrestling. The admiral always dressed in civilian clothes, which did nothing
to change the air of authority that surrounded him. Sitting in a Tokyo udon restaurant, the two looked like a pair of senior executives on their lunch break. Tokyo had hundreds of such shops, and they never ate in the same one twice.
Their last meeting had not been as pleasant as most. Komamura had received word from his contacts in both India and Taiwan, on the same day, that they would not be attending his conference, even as observers. He was depressed, and it surprised him that he was so upset.
“Of course you take it personally. This alliance is your child, sensei.” Kubo insisted on addressing him using the same honorific Komamura’s students used. It could mean “teacher,” or “master,” and implied a level of professional respect that Komamura really didn’t feel worthy of right then. Kubo also insisted, because of his civilian “cover,” that Komamura simply address him as “Kubo-san.”
The admiral was realistic. “Not everyone will think the alliance is as necessary as you do. India has reasons for keeping its distance. They are not directly threatened by Chinese expansion into the South China Sea, at least not yet. They are interested in ways of weakening their greatest enemy, but their participation is a risk with much less benefit. They will join once they believe we have a good chance of success.
“Taiwan is a different problem. They have lived next to the dragon for seventy years, and are very cautious. If China discovered the alliance, and that Taiwan was involved, it would be disastrous for us and more so for Taiwan.”
Kubo asked, “If China succeeds in gaining control over the resources in the South China Sea—oil, food, minerals, not to mention control of the sea lanes—what are the long-term consequences for Taiwan?”
Komamura answered, “I covered that in the book, of course. Even a conservative—”
“I mean the political consequences, Professor,” Kubo interrupted. “Ten and twenty years later. You said it yourself, in chapter nine. ‘Political power is based on, and is directly proportional to, economic power.’ You even had a chart. Can Taiwan remain independent under those circumstances?”