by Larry Bond
The professor gestured to the documents on his desk. “I’ve done nothing since the campaign started except work on the answer to that question. After this crisis has passed, I must instruct the alliance’s intelligence people on how to gather economic data. Much of this ‘secret information’ is neither secret or informative.”
Komamura paused. “Please excuse me, I’m complaining to a man with much larger problems. Given time, our plan will work.” He tried to sound confident.
2 September 2016
1300 Local Time
White House Situation Room
Washington, D.C.
Patterson was giving the briefing. Kirkpatrick had given her as much warning as he could, a little less than thirty minutes.
Myles had called for a meeting of the National Security Council as soon as the Littoral Alliance’s “nonanswer” arrived. Everyone had shown up. No deputies this time. The secretaries of state, defense, the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the director of national intelligence, even the director of Homeland Security sat close to the head of the table, but much of the cabinet had also decided to attend: energy, treasury, commerce, even the attorney general.
The president was late, and he’d sent word to start without him, but the empty chair distracted her. It also meant he wouldn’t hear her opening, but they couldn’t wait any longer. Ray nodded to her, and she stepped up to the podium.
“Ladies and gentlemen, China has mobilized for war, as have most of the nations in the Western Pacific.” She pressed her remote and a map appeared on the screen showing military unit movements from India eastward, all the way to South Korea.
“I am going to summarize the situation in the region. A detailed accounting would take more time than we have. Dr. Kirkpatrick can provide any of you with—”
A rectangle of light appeared to one side, and President Myles came in, hurrying. “Apologies, everyone. My conversation with Prime Minister Keyes went longer than I expected.” He paused, then added, “but the British can add nothing to what we already know.” Settled in his chair, he looked over and said, “Dr. Patterson, please continue.”
She pressed the remote again, and the map zoomed in to frame China. Unit symbols littered Chinese territory, but clustered near the borders. “Of the eighteen group armies that make up their main ground forces, all but two have mobilized, and of those, all but three have left their garrisons. The regional troops in all seven military districts have been put on alert, and this morning President Chen Dao signed an order requiring all reservists to muster with their units.”
Patterson used a light pointer. “Ground and air forces are concentrating in the south, along the Vietnamese border, in the Chengdu and Guangzhou Military Regions. The 13th, 14th, and 41st Group Armies will be in position to attack Vietnam within twenty-four hours. There has been no appreciable concentration across from Taiwan; in fact, elements of the 31st Group Army are heading westward. Some mobile units have been sent to reinforce the northern border, but this seems to be more of a precautionary measure, as they are second-line formations without the latest equipment.
“There are also indications that China has seized several islands and reefs in the Spratly Island archipelago, SIGINT reporting indicates fighting on Namyit and Spratly Islands and Southwest Cay. All three are Vietnamese-claimed islands.
“Every nation in the area, including those in the Littoral Alliance, has gone to a full war footing. In the three Pacific Littoral Alliance countries, U.S. attachés and other U.S. nationals have been barred from military bases ‘for their own safety.’ This has not applied to our joint-use bases in Japan and South Korea. Instead, Japanese and South Korean units are being moved from the joint bases to ones exclusively under national control.”
The map shifted west suddenly, framing India. “Delhi has ordered an alert in the north, ‘because of China’s history of past aggression.’ Indian Army and Air Force units in the area are deploying to defensive positions. Their ballistic missile forces have also begun moving to dispersal sites.”
Patterson brought the map back east, expanding it to include the entire western Pacific. “Merchant ship traffic in the South and East China Seas has dropped by fifty percent in the past four days, with many ships reaching their destination and not leaving, or in some cases, simply heading for the nearest safe harbor. This includes, as of eight o’clock this morning, seventeen U.S.-owned vessels.”
She checked the time. Good, five minutes flat. “Questions?”
General Jason Nagy, the Joint Chiefs vice chairman, raised his hand. “Dr. Patterson, the Vietnamese islands you mentioned, they span the entire length of the Spratlys?”
“Yes, General,” Joanna replied. “Southwest Cay is in the north, Namyit Island is in the center, and Spratly Island proper is in the south.”
“Thank you, ma’am, for makin’ my point,” answered the Marine Corps general with a heavy southern drawl. “That’s a maritime front over two hundred nautical miles long. It would take at least three amphibious assault groups to conduct that many landin’s simultaneously.”
“You’re correct, sir.” She nodded. “Three of China’s Type 071 Yuzhao-class LPDs are in the South China Sea AOR, and the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity has assessed they are the primary units behind the attacks.”
General Nagy smiled broadly. “Yes, ma’am, I’ve talked at length with the boys in MCIA, but doesn’t it strike you as a very fortuitous coincidence that the Chinese have the necessary assets all together and ready to go on a moment’s notice?”
Joanna felt uncertain. What was the general getting at? “Well, General Nagy, they were scheduled to participate in the major exercise, but that is obviously OBE. Since the units were available, the Chinese put them to immediate use attacking islands belonging to at least one of their adversaries.”
Nagy chuckled. “Well, I wouldn’t know about that. But it seems to this dumb grunt that an amphibious campaign of this magnitude would require a helluva lot more time to plan and prepare for than just three or four days.”
The lightbulbs suddenly came on, as everyone present comprehended what the marine general was saying.
President Myles leaned forward, his gaze intense. “General, are you suggesting these invasions were preplanned? How much time would you need to organize such a campaign?”
“Mr. President, all I’m sayin’ is that it would take months to get everythin’ planned and in place, the people trained and properly supplied. Particularly for a navy and a marine corps that hasn’t done anythin’ like this before. Now some pretty smart folks are suggestin’ the Chinese are more flexible and could turn their forces around much quicker than we can. And with all due respect to their considerable credentials, Mr. President, that’s a pile of manure.”
“The ‘imminent Chinese threat,’” Patterson blurted out, referring to the Russian CD. “If the Vietnamese had knowledge of a planned invasion of their holdings in the Spratlys, that would explain the mining of the Chinese carrier—the flagship of the invasion force.”
“My God!” a weary Lloyd exclaimed. “This is the reason why the Littoral Alliance went to war!”
“Hold on, Andy. It only provides an explanation of why Vietnam went to war. It doesn’t do us any good for the other three nations,” retorted Malcolm Geisler, the secretary of defense. He was the newest member of the cabinet, having replaced the ailing James Springfield.
“But it does, Malcolm. Japan and South Korea have similar issues with China in the East China Sea. Remember that tiff over Japanese oil and gas exploration by China near the Senkaku Islands last year? And what about the growing number of incidents between Chinese fishing boats and Japanese and South Korean coast guard ships? Same story, different location,” Lloyd argued.
“And there is still no resolution on the overlapping EEZ disputes between those countries,” added Commerce Secretary Joyce McHenry.
“All right, what about India?” Geisler asked.
“There’s disp
uted territory there as well, just not quite as picturesque,” Lloyd responded, stifling a yawn. “India and China actually went to war in the early 1960s over the Aksai Chin area. China kicked the Indians’ butt, but ultimately declared a cease-fire and withdrew. The Indians haven’t forgotten that unpleasant episode. They’ve also taken great umbrage over China’s occupation of Tibet.”
“The Indians have also actively opposed China’s development of civilian ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Burma, and Bangladesh. The ‘string of pearls,’ as they are called, is part of China’s strategic plan to reduce the vulnerability of their sea lanes,” McHenry concluded.
“So, there is a rationale that supports a preemptive strike by an alliance of weaker nations with similar grievances against China,” Dewhurst summarized.
“It’s a reasonable theory, General,” observed Kirkpatrick.
“But can we prove it?” Myles demanded.
“We’ll get right on it, Mr. President,” said Alexander. Then turning to Nagy, “General, let’s discuss your theory after the meeting. I’d like to work out the details to help MCIA run this to ground.”
“It would be my pleasure, sir,” Nagy replied.
Myles said, “Well, I’m encouraged. Maybe we can finally get our hands around the root cause of the war. I’m not surprised that it involves an aggressive move by China, but I’m perplexed as to why the Chinese think it’s necessary.
“I’ll sit down with Andy and chew on this one.” He looked over at his secretary of state. Lloyd’s eyes were at half-mast.
“Andy, I’m sorry,” sympathized Myles. “You’ve been at this all night. Please brief the others on the response from Littoral Alliance.”
Lloyd stood slowly, as if with great effort. He looked very tired. “All four nations responded to President Myles’s note with exactly the same words, at the same time, saying that they ‘could not respond to our inquiry.’” He smiled as he said it, but he was clearly not amused. “They didn’t deny it, but they didn’t answer it, either.”
“Did you expect them to admit it, Andy?” asked Myles.
Lloyd sat down, sighing. “They did admit it, of course. They sent us a clear message by acting in unison, but without giving us a staring point for a discussion. I’m a diplomat. We love to talk. I could ask them why they started this war, or what their goals are. Of course, I’d also encourage them to stop shooting, but I don’t think they want to stop.”
“Hard to make them stop when you didn’t know why they started.” Myles sounded frustrated. He’d taught Asian studies before getting into politics. That knowledge wasn’t giving him the answers he needed. “Gregory, has the intelligence community come up with anything to shed light on Andy’s idea?”
Greg Alexander, the director of national intelligence, answered hesitantly, “We have few resources in South Korea or Japan, of course. We rely on attachés in those countries, as well as our bilateral relationships. Our sources in Vietnam and India haven’t given us any information beyond details of their respective mobilizations. It’s clear they are serious, even scared.
“As for the Chinese,” he continued, “they’re scared, too, but not in the same way. Our sources within China gave us no hint of the approaching crisis, and now there’s word that the General Staff’s intelligence arm has launched an all-out hunt for ‘enemy agents.’ We suspect they’re looking for the Vietnamese spy that stirred up so much trouble with the information he or she stole.”
Alexander paused for a moment, as if considering the possibilities. “As a result, most of our people have gone to ground. It’s hard just sending them a request for information, much less expecting anything back.”
“Too bad we can’t find the spy first. He could answer so many questions.” General Dewhurst sounded half serious.
“I’m afraid that isn’t very likely, General, as much as I agree with your sentiments,” snapped Alexander, with a hint of annoyance in his voice.
The conversation was wandering, but the president pulled back on task. “Let me lay this out clearly,” Myles stated. “Right now this war does not involve the U.S. directly, but it’s begun to hurt us economically, and the longer it goes on, the more damage we will suffer. And the longer it lasts, the greater the chance we will be involved, directly. That means open war with China and an impossible cost in blood and treasure. What pressure can we bring on the two sides to stop fighting?”
Lloyd sighed. “With only one side doing the shooting, pressure on China is pointless. And if we publicly act against the Littoral Alliance countries, we give China its targets. So whatever we recommend has to be as covert as the conflict itself.”
The silence that followed Lloyd’s reasoning was suffocating.
General Dewhurst finally remarked, “In 1971, we sent Enterprise into the Indian Ocean to help end the Indo-Pakistani war. That worked.”
“And the Indians and Pakistanis are still mad about it,” Lloyd answered. “And don’t forget that China was just as irate when we sent carrier battle groups off Taiwan in the mid-1990s. A mere display of military force isn’t going to help us this time. You need superior power to enforce a cease-fire.”
“That’s not entirely true,” Alexander countered. “Commander Mitchell managed to stop an attack by a Vietnamese Kilo on a Chinese sub. One could call that ‘local superiority.’”
General Dewhurst visibly winced at the mention of what was already called “the Mitchell incident.” Lloyd scowled, and Ray Kirkpatrick almost scolded the director. “Mitchell was lucky. Poking your nose into the middle of a sub-on-sub engagement is begging for trouble.”
Confused, Myles asked, “But when you briefed me on that, Ray, you said that Mitchell’s sub was far superior to the other two, that as long as he handled himself well, there was little chance of him revealing his presence.”
“Yes, sir, the odds were definitely in his favor, but there was still a risk of being discovered, and a smaller risk of getting shot at. It would have been better if he hadn’t intervened at all.”
“But when he did, he kept the casualty list from growing,” Myles insisted. “One of the reasons wars go on is because of the price both sides have paid in blood. After a while, even if the original reason no longer matters, you keep on fighting because you don’t want all those deaths to be in vain.”
Patterson could see the president was warming up to something. “What if we don’t care whether they know we’re there? What if we use our submarines to spoil attacks, whether it’s sub on tanker or sub on sub? And it doesn’t matter who’s doing the shooting. We show ourselves to be completely neutral by disrupting any attack by either side.”
She listened to the exchange, mentally rolling the facts around in her mind. Like the others, Patterson wanted to find a way to stop the conflict before it spiraled out of control. She agreed with Myles’s goal, but this … It just didn’t feel right. She wanted to say something, but what? She wasn’t afraid to speak, but she had no idea what to say. She wasn’t alone.
Lloyd, the president’s closest adviser, broke the silence that had followed Myles’s suggestion. “Mr. President, I don’t believe U.S. forces have ever been used in that way.”
When Lloyd paused, searching for a second sentence, General Dewhurst added, “The Squadron Fifteen boats are already risking their lives just to ‘observe and report’ in the middle of a war zone. I understand our critical need for information, that’s why I haven’t recommended getting them out of there. This strategy puts them directly in the line of fire, at far greater risk for no gain.”
Lloyd nodded. “I agree with the general, Mr. President. We could lose a sub by getting involved in someone else’s fight. And it will just make both sides mad at us.”
“I don’t mind that if you don’t, Andy.” Myles was smiling, but his tone had a grim edge. “Actually, that’s one of my goals. Two U.S. military allies have begun a secret war, without a word of explanation to us. When we ask them, they stonewall. This will get their attention, and maybe
convince them to start talking to us.”
Myles continued, “It also buys us time for Gregory and his people to confirm the rationale for a preemptive strike that Andy put forth. Once we know that, our people can be pulled out of the area.”
“Sir, what if we agree with them?” asked Geisler hesitantly. He saw everyone’s reaction, and immediately added, “I’m not suggesting that the U.S. start sinking tankers, but the countries in the Littoral Alliance did not go to war lightly. This invasion theory is certainly reasonable justification; at least for Vietnam.”
Lloyd answered, “I agree, but it all comes back to the Littoral Alliance not informing us, even after the shooting started. The Russians have given us more information than our ‘Pacific allies.’”
Alexander added, “The Russian may have given us more than we thought. When Senator Hardy said he was interested in reading the book that Petrov had given him, I wondered what it was about. I haven’t read Navies for Asia, but there are summaries and reviews all over the Web, especially on Pacific and Asian Web sites. Komamura’s an economist and historian, but the book is about Asian seapower. He compares the growing strength of countries like Japan and South Korea with fading U.S. influence in the region. He posits an alliance of Asian countries, able to ‘act without U.S. constraints,’ against regional threats. And he has a whole chapter on the Chinese threat.”
“It’s a blueprint for their alliance,” Geisler remarked.
“Except they didn’t withdraw from their treaties with us first,” Lloyd countered.
“Because that might have telegraphed their intentions,” Myles completed. “It all makes sense, right up to the time the shooting started, and after that, it’s all about pride. They’re showing us they can handle China without our help.”
Alexander nodded. “That’s what Komamura said in his book. One of the chapters was titled ‘Sailing Alone.’”
Dewhurst said, “‘Alone’ is a tall order. The Littoral Alliance is trying to cripple the Chinese economy quickly, but Alexander’s economists estimate they will need to keep this up for weeks, maybe months. The Chinese won’t sit still for that long, even if their opponents manage to stay hidden.”