by Larry Bond
Hisagi replied, “Admiral Kubo’s death would be difficult to bear under normal circumstances, but the civilian casualties from the strikes yesterday were another heavy blow. He believes that since his book inspired the alliance, he must take responsibility for them, and therefore the war. He is also uncomfortable with taking an active part in the strike planning. Sensei told me himself that every time he recommends targets, he feels like a mass murderer.”
“I was in Tokyo yesterday morning when the missiles landed,” Orihara told him. “None landed close to the ministry, but their impact was still cataclysmic. The trains and roads are all paralyzed. Only the emergency services are able to move at all. I had to use a SDF helicopter to get here.”
“And we sit here and wait, helplessly, for the next salvo,” Hisagi mused. “They’ve been ready for over a day, there’s nothing we can do but wait.”
Orihara nodded his solemn agreement. “The missile defense forces did their best, but we have all learned an important lesson, both about China’s power and our own vulnerability. After I was given my new assignment here, I met with the heads of the other services, and then the minister of defense and the prime minister. They told me that Japan is taking new steps to protect us from Chinese ballistic missiles.”
Hisagi sighed. “Then I hope they do it quickly. I can’t decide what would be worse, another strike on Tokyo or a different city.”
“It really doesn’t matter,” concluded Orihara. “We lose people regardless of the city. An interim measure has been deployed, an electronic countermeasure system, but all that will do is provide some protection to key military and civilian installations. It does nothing for the general population.
“The ministry’s estimate is that the Chinese will wait until things start moving again in Tokyo, and then hit it again. The refugee problem is unbelievable. Anyone who can leave the city is fleeing to more rural areas.” The admiral paused for a moment, then continued, “It can’t be helped. Heaven decides our fates. Let us work hard together on problems closer to us.”
“The professor,” Hisagi replied. “Yes. He is grieving, as I am, but it has been less than two days since Admiral Kubo was killed. I believe that with time, Komamura’s spirit will return.”
“Do we have the time for that?” Orihara asked. “This war changes day by day.”
“But his strategy has never wavered. That is one of his lessons. We must avoid distractions and focus our attacks on China’s greatest vulnerability. He’s trained his assistants well. Certainly we can follow sensei’s guidance for a short time without his direct supervision.”
Suddenly the new air raid siren began to wail, and both men’s cell phones buzzed—another missile attack was incoming. Orihara shook his head, a rueful grin on his face. “So much for the ministry’s estimates! Come, let’s get to the shelters.”
11 September 2016
1200 Eastern Daylight Time
CNN Headline News
“NATO ministers met again today to consider possible reactions to the worsening economic situation caused by the Pacific and now Indian-Pakistani wars. Although both conflicts are well outside the NATO charter’s area of responsibility, the economies of all NATO countries are being battered by wildly fluctuating energy prices, and shortages of all kinds, especially finished goods that are largely only available from Asia. With ever-increasing shipping losses, and the blockade of the Pacific sea lanes, global trade has all but ground to a halt. Although initially content with the role of ‘concerned observer,’ demands from European citizens, as well as business leaders, have grown to near-deafening proportions. NATO may be compelled to act. They’re just not quite sure how.
“The normally busy shipping lanes, stretching from the Cape of Good Hope east all the way past Japan, are now a war zone. While some merchant ships continue to sail east of Good Hope, they do so at great risk, and without insurance.
“The British Royal Navy and French Navy have started to move warships from the piracy patrols in Africa, and from their home bases, to the Cape of Good Hope. They plan to begin convoying nonbelligerent merchant ships safely through the war zone, but questions have been raised about what ships will be allowed to sail in the convoys. Also, what if Chinese or Littoral Alliance submarines attack the merchants being escorted? Will the warships escorting the ships be allowed to sink them?
“China has also announced that it will begin convoying ships bound for Chinese ports, but has not released any details, or whether they will be coordinating with the NATO effort.
“NATO has ruled nothing out, although direct intervention in either conflict seems unlikely. In addition to possible further sanctions against China, seen as the aggressor in that war, and against India, NATO could authorize emergency transfers of arms to the Littoral Alliance countries, except India, and Pakistan, and sharing intelligence with the Littoral Alliance and Pakistan to assist in their defense.
“Newton Thursbury, the U.S. Representative to NATO, has lobbied aggressively that any measures should be defensive only, and designed to encourage the combatants in both wars to seek an immediate cease-fire. The U.S. representative spoke strongly. ‘A war between five countries in the South China Sea was bad enough. We now have ten countries involved in two separate wars. The last thing we need is to add NATO to the mix.’”
“In a follow-up to this morning’s report, new photographs from last night’s massive ballistic missile attack on Littoral Alliance capitals have been posted on the Internet. These photographs, many of which are extremely graphic, reveal a disturbing change in Chinese targeting strategy. Instead of striking military, political, or economic targets, the missiles largely hit the residential sections of Tokyo, Taipei, Seoul, and Hanoi. Initial casualty estimates are in the thousands, but an accurate count is proving to be difficult as a number of residential areas and schools were hit in this latest attack. Due to the high number of casualties from previous missile barrages, and damage to some of the hospitals, medical facilities in those cities have been filled to capacity, forcing the use of public buildings as emergency medical wards.
“Civil authorities have brought in rescue dogs to aid in finding survivors, but the destruction is so great that heavy equipment cannot get close to the disaster scene, forcing rescuers to dig through the wreckage with hand tools.
“A Littoral Alliance foreign affairs spokesman issued a statement saying, ‘This latest attack shows just how desperate China has become. They are unable to counter our combined militaries, so they resort to terror attacks against our citizens. Their defeat is near, we will continue to press on!’”
12 September 2016
0800 Local Time
Littoral Alliance Headquarters
Okutama, Nishitama District
Tokyo, Japan
With eight nations making up the Littoral Alliance, the sixteen representatives to the working group, with the necessary translators, took up a fair amount of room. Admiral Orihara could not use the commons area for his briefing, given the level of security, but luckily the Hirano estate’s dojo made an excellent venue. The weapons racks, although empty, still gave the place a martial atmosphere, a perfect setting.
The representatives of each country sat in pairs at western-style desks, complete with national flags. The only jarring feature was the sight of dozens of cable runs taped to the floor carrying power and secure data to each delegation. This information was most definitely not going on a Wi-Fi network.
“Gentlemen and ladies, thank you for your time this morning. This is my first official duty as Japan’s military representative to the working group.” He bowed slightly. “Please take good care of me.”
The first slide said simply “Project Ryusei,” and below in English, “Project Meteor.” He quickly brought up a second slide, a map of China with symbols marking oil installations.
“We’ve been striking oil refineries along the coast with submarine-launched cruise missies, as well as unconventional sabotage and cyber attacks. The refiner
ies at Juijang, Ningbo, Zibo, Beihai, and Panjin have all been reduced to below twenty percent output, effectively crippling them, but this takes time and great effort. There are also many refineries that are simply outside our reach.
“The South Korean land-attack cruise missile, the Hyunmoo 3, can only fly fifteen hundred kilometers after being launched from a submarine. While this sounds like a great distance, it is not compared to the vast expanse of China.” He pressed a control and an irregular red line appeared on the map, a little less than one-third of the way across China from its eastern coast. “Of greater concern is the land-attack Klub missile, employed by the Vietnamese and Indian navies, which has a far more limited range of three hundred kilometers. This severely restricts our ability to strike critical targets in the South China Sea area. All of the refineries that have been hit lie within this area,” Orihara pointed out.
He called up a picture of the South Korean missile, along with its specifications. “The Hyunmoo 3 has a five-hundred-kilogram warhead, which is enough to destroy most individual targets, but many oil refineries cover one or two square kilometers, with hundreds of components.”
An after-strike photo appeared of the Huabei Petrochemical Company petroleum refinery in northern China. “This is a major refinery, with an output of a hundred thousand barrels per day. It was struck by nine missiles fired by the submarine ROKS Ra Kyungji. Aiming for vital components like distillation towers and piping manifolds, the installation’s output was reduced by twenty-seven percent, and repairs are estimated to take several months.
“But the Korean Hyunmoo-3 and the Russian Klub, like most cruise missiles, are subsonic, and although both have very small radar signatures, they can be detected if the searching radar is close enough. The Chinese air defenses discovered the Huabei raid, which took just under twenty minutes to fly from the launch point to the target, and destroyed three of the missiles, or one-quarter of the twelve missiles launched. This is essentially the submarine’s entire load, the maximum number of missiles most subs can carry while still leaving an adequate torpedo loadout for self-defense.
“Another issue is the time it takes a submarine to load weapons in port, sail to the launch area while evading enemy defenses, and return to port after launch. While it is engaged in this type of mission, it’s not doing what it does best: sinking other ships and subs.”
Orihara turned and bowed slightly toward the South Korean delegation. “While the strike went well, and did great damage, we need to reach targets farther inland, with greater striking power, and less chance of interception.”
His next slide drew a surprised murmur from the delegates. It was a photo of a rocket, an orbital launch vehicle, with labeled arrows pointing to different components. The arrow pointing to the nose read “warhead.”
“This is a Japanese H II-series launch vehicle. It was first used in 2002, and has proven to be a dependable heavy-lift platform. Even the basic version can lift four metric tons to a high orbit.”
He changed the slide to show a cutaway diagram of the nose section. “The Self-Defense Agency, working with the Japanese Space Exploration Agency, has developed a simple modification that allows the vehicle to act as a ballistic missile, able to reach any location in China. Since it doesn’t have to reach orbit, it can carry a payload of six metric tons of explosive. Instead of a single unitary warhead, it will carry sixty one-hundred-kilogram charges, which will spread out over an area hundreds of meters across. Each charge includes an incendiary component as well as a high-explosive blast and fragmentation warhead.”
As he’d been describing first the vehicle and then the payload, Orihara had heard soft voices, then discussion, and finally the Filipino military delegate spoke. “How can you even consider this when your constitution explicitly forbids offensive weapons?” Other delegates were nodding as well, with expressions ranging from curiosity to concern.
Orihara looked to Minister Hisagi, who stood. The minister explained, “The self-defense clauses of the constitution were intended to prevent Japan initiating a war of aggression. They do not have any provision for what Japan should do if it is involved in a war of self-defense, or an alliance like this one. ‘Invincibility lies in the defense, the possibility of victory in attack.’”
Everyone understood the quote from Sun Tzu, some nodding their agreement. Hisagi pressed his point. “Only offensive weapons like this,” he said, pointing to the screen, “can carry our fight to the Chinese where they have been safe before.”
He paused, taking the time to look at each delegation. “The Japanese Diet has met in secret session, and is prepared to amend our constitution to allow the construction and use of offensive weapons.” This created a stir, and Hisagi quickly continued, “But we acknowledge and respect the security concerns of our allies and neighbors. The Diet has also agreed that any offensive weapons developed by Japan will be placed under the joint control of the Littoral Alliance, and will be used only against targets approved by the alliance.”
Orihara was watching the group, and could see their expressions change from concern to relief. Confusion was replaced by approval. Almost all the delegates looked convinced, including the Filipino general who’d raised the question. Targeting was already jointly controlled by the alliance. This would simply be another weapon in their arsenal, and a powerful one.
Hisagi sat, and Orihara continued his brief. “Work on Ryusei began soon after the Chinese missile attacks on our capitals. We have reached the point where we are confident the weapon can be successfully developed, and are therefore asking for the working group’s permission to complete the work. We expect to have three missiles ready for launch in several days.”
He brought up the map of the Chinese oil refineries again, but now an arc appeared, reaching from the Japanese launch facility at Tanegashima deep into the Chinese interior. “We are recommending that the first target be the Yumen Refining and Petrochemical plant in western Gansu province, and that it be attacked by all three missiles. Not only is this a major refinery serving western China, but a pipeline from this refinery supplies the Lanzhou refinery to the east.
“We can launch two missiles simultaneously from the Tanegashima facility, and the third six hours later. They should reduce the facility’s output to near zero, and the best part is that the Chinese are virtually powerless to stop them.”
22
PREEMPTION
12 September 2016
1400 Local Time
USS North Dakota
Apra Harbor, Guam
Standing on the flying bridge, Jerry watched in silence as his boat entered Apra Harbor. Even though he was physically present, he felt detached from what was going on around him. Part of his brain recognized and understood the conning orders that were given, the radio exchanges with the tugs, and the reports from the OOD. But the rest of him was some two thousand miles away, in the South China Sea. He spoke only when absolutely necessary, and even then it was usually just a curt, emotionless, “Very well.”
Bernie Thigpen looked up from the deck and saw his captain standing ramrod straight up on the sail. Since the loss of Santa Fe, the skipper had become withdrawn, reclusive; he seemed to intentionally shun human interaction. He took the normal reports as required by his duties as a commanding officer, but that was all. He hadn’t attended even one meal in the wardroom during the last three days. Hell, Thigpen wasn’t sure he ate much at all. He knew Mitchell had hardly slept; the light in his stateroom had been on the whole time. The only thing delivered to his stateroom was one carafe of coffee after another.
The XO had tried to get his captain to talk, but he didn’t have much success. On those rare occasions that Thigpen did get a response, it was always cryptic. During his last attempt, he pressed the issue: “What could you have done to change the outcome, Skipper? The situation was completely out of your control! You can’t hold yourself accountable for what happened.”
Jerry’s reaction was completely unexpected. His face flashed with i
ntense anger. Seething, he replied in low, guttural voice, “Santa Fe was my responsibility! I was ordered to get her home safely. I failed! And I left her entire crew behind.”
Although shocked by the explosive, visceral response, Thigpen saw past the anger and noted the pain in Jerry’s eyes. Coming to his senses, Jerry apologized to Thigpen, and thanked him for his concern. Despite the XO’s best efforts, Jerry refused to talk about it again. However, while in the head one evening, Thigpen overheard his skipper talking to himself. Leaning quietly against the door, Thigpen heard, “In times of adversity, you can turn to no one else.” He immediately recognized the phrase from Senator Hardy’s speech at the change of command ceremony.
* * *
North Dakota eased slowly into the inner harbor, and as the tugs turned her about, Jerry noted two Virginia-class submarines tied up to the submarine tender’s starboard side. Raising his binoculars, he looked at the name placards on the sails—USS Texas and USS North Carolina. Ironically, he hadn’t noticed the Burke-class Aegis destroyer anchored in the outer harbor.
Before the brow was even in place, Jerry swung over the top of the sail, and climbed down the ladder to the deck. Thigpen was waiting for him by the brow with a locked pouch and a key. Jerry nodded as he took the key and put it in his pocket. Reaching for the pouch he said, “Do what you can to get fresh provisions, XO. Right now, I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen next, so we might as well get ready for anything.”
“Aye, aye, sir,” Thigpen replied. “Good luck with the commodore.”
“Thanks. I’m going to need it.”
Jerry saluted the ensign, and strode across the gangplank. On the pier, standing at attention, was the same petty officer that had picked Jerry up during his previous visit. The young sailor stood rock steady, patiently holding the car door open. But this time, Jerry firmly shook his head no, pointed forcefully down the street, then turned sharply and started walking. The shocked look on the petty officer’s face caused Thigpen to laugh out loud. “That poor kid is going to have a heart attack,” he mumbled to himself.