bush-musharraf_x.htm.
260 “We got real concerns about this”: Stephen Hadley, interview by author, December 15, 2009, Washington, D.C.
260 “we were getting diddled”: Frances Fragos Townsend, interview by author, December 7, 2009, Washington, D.C.
260 local militant leaders: International Crisis Group, “Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants,” December 11, 2006.
261 200 percent higher: Jim Garamone, “NATO, U.S., Afghan forces battling Taliban in Afghanistan,” American Forces Press Service, January 16, 2007. http://www.defenselink.mil
/news/NewsArticle.aspx?ID=2708; “a steady pace”: Author embed at Bermel base in eastern Afghanistan, September 11, 2006.
261 obvious to the Bush team: Hadley interview.
261 some $11 billion: Congressional Research Service, “Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2009,” http://www.fas.org/sgp
/crs/row/pakaid.pdf.
261 “has protected or regenerated”: National Intelligence Community. National Intelligence Estimates. “The terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland,” July 2007. www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070717
_release.pdf.
261 “still in Quetta”: Author interview with U.S. military official in Kabul, Afghanistan, April 2007.
261 “target folders”: Author interview with U.S. military official in Islamabad, Pakistan, May 1 2007.
261 nixed a proposed attack: Mark Mazzetti, “Rumsfeld called off 2005 plan to capture top al-Qaeda figures,” International Herald Tribune, http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/08/
news/qaeda.php.
261 only 11 percent: Adam Carr Election Archive, Legislative election of 10 October 2002, http://psephos.adam-carr.net/
countries/p/pakistan2002.txt; “a piffling 2%”: Adam Carr Election Archive, Legislative election of 18 February 2008, http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/p/
pakistan/pakistan2008.txt.
262 dropped the corruption charges: CNN.com, “Bhutto corruption charges dropped,” October 5, 2007. http://edition.cnn.com/2007
/WORLD/asiapcf/10/05/
pakistan.elections/index.html.
262 widely believed to have looted: “Bhutto: corruption charges remain,” CNN.com, October 3, 2007.
262 woman who returned: She was born in 1953, elected prime minister in 1988, and returned from exile in 2007.
262 targeted the former prime minister in Karachi: MSNBC, “Blasts aimed at Bhutto kill more than 120,” October 19, 2007. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
id/21344367/.
263 “Were they our men?”: Translated in Martin Fletcher, “Named: the al-Qaeda chief who ‘masterminded murder,’” Times of London, December 29, 2007. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/
world/asia/article3105443.ece; BBC News, “Bhutto’s murder: key questions,” February 8, 2008. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia
/7165892.stm.
263 authenticated that it was Mehsud’s voice”: Author interview Western official, Islamabad, Pakistan, January 2, 2008.
263 press conference: Syed Shoaib Hasan, “Meeting Pakistan’s most feared militant,” BBC, May 27, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/
south_asia/7420606.stm.
263 killing about fifty-five: Greg Miller, “Two al-Qaeda suspects believed killed in Pakistan,” Los Angeles Times, January 9, 2009. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/
world/africa/la-fg-
terror9-2009jan09.0.4086437.story; and “Pakistan’s al-Qaeda leaders ‘dead,’” BBC News, January 9, 2009. “http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/
hi/south_asia/7819305.stm.
263 masterminded by an al-Qaeda leader: Zahid Hussein, “Usama al-Kini, head of al-Qaeda in Pakistan, killed by U.S. military,” Times of London, January 9, 2009, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/news/world/asia/
article5479455.ece.
264 at the last minute: Elizabeth Palmer, “Arrests made in Pakistan hotel bombing,” CBS/AP, September 22, 2008. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/22/
terror/main4466838.shtml.
264 support for suicide attacks: Pew Global Attitudes Survey, “Unfavorable views of Jews and Muslims on the increase in Europe,” September 17, 2008. http://pewglobal.org/
reports/pdf/262.pdf, question 73.
264 nearly 3,000: South Asia Terrorism Portal, Casualties of Terrorist Violence in Pakistan, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/
database/casualties.htm; Author email correspondence with Pakistani government official, November 17, 2008; some 1,500: 1,574 coalition casualties 2001–2010: http://icasualties.org/oef/.
265 aided by elements of the ISI: Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, “Pakistanis aided Kabul attack, U.S. officials say,” New York Times, August 1, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/world/
asia/01pstan.html?em.
265 creeping rapprochement: For an account of the back channel Kashmir negotiations, see Steve Coll, “The Back Channel,” New Yorker, March 2, 2009. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/
2009/03/02/090302fa_fact_coll.
265 fifth-largest country: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 revision. http://un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/
WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf. p. 47.
Chapter 16
266 “Just because you invade a country stupidly”: Quoted in Thomas Ricks, The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006–2008 (New York: Penguin Group, 2009), p. 29.
266 “Security may be ten percent”: Quoted in Neil Sheehan, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam (New York: Random House, 1988), p. 67.
266 In the summer of 2006: Sterling Jensen, “Lessons from an Anbar sheikh,” Washington Post, September 29, 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.
com/wp-dyn/content/article
/2007/09/28/AR2007092801554.html; lanky, intense, 28-year-old Mormon with a talent for languages; author interview with Sterling Jensen, Washington, D.C. November 12, 2008.
267 city of some three hundred thousand: Ann Scott Tyson, “Troops fight to expand foothold in Ramadi,” Washington Post, August 2, 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com
/wp-dyn/content/article/
2006/08/01/AR2006080101733.html; only 100 cops: Tom Bowman, “Sunnis sheikhs join Iraqi police to fight al-Qaida,” NPR, February 19, 2007, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/
story.php?storyId=7486653.
267 nightmarish mash-up: author interview with Sterling Jensen.
267 dead people with signs: Author interview with Sterling Jensen; author interview with Anbar sheik, May 31, 2008, Anbar Province, Iraq.
267 met with: Jim Michaels, “An Army colonel’s gamble pays off in Iraq,” USA Today, May 1, 2007, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-04-30-
ramadicolonel_n.htm.
267 killed his father and three of his brothers: Joshua Partlow, Ann Scott Tyson and Robin Wright, “Bomb kills a key Sunni ally of U.S.,” Washington Post, September 14, 2007 and Todd Pittman, “Sunni sheikhs join fight vs. insurgency,” Associated Press, March 25, 2007.
267 effectively ruled: “State of the insurgency in al Anbar,” August 17, 2006. http://media.washingtonpost.com
/wp-srv/nation/documents/
marines_iraq_document_020707.pdf.
268 “this is awesome”: Jensen interview op. cit.
268 “Never interrupt”: Napoleon Bonaparte, quoted in James Charlton, The Military Quotation Book (New York: Macmillan, 2002), p. 93.
268 an aggressive assault: Jim Michaels op. cit.; http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/
iraq/2007-04-30-ramadi-colonel_n.htm
268 live side by side: Jim Michaels op. cit., http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/
iraq/2007-04-30-ramadi-colonel_n.htm; “tactic that had worked”: George W. Bush, Renaissance Cleveland Hotel, Cleveland, OH, March 20, 2006. http://georgewbush-whitehouse
.archives.gov/news/
releases/2
006/03/20060320-7.html.
268 twenty-nine small outposts: Greg Jaffe and David S. Cloud, The Fourth Star (New York: Random House, 2009), p. 206.
268 fifty thousand soldiers: Jaffe and Cloud op. cit., p. 163.
269 little or no understanding: Author observations in Ramadi in June 2008.
269 his face for the first time: Rob Watson, “First Zarqawi video significant,” BBC, April 26, 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_
east/4947768.stm.
269 The breakthough: The account of the interrogations that led to the information about Zarqawi can be found in “The Ploy” by Mark Bowden, The Atlantic, May 2007, and also in Matthew Alexander, How to Break a Terrorist (New York: Free Press, 2008), especially pages 274–275.
270 “shocked by the death”: Osama bin Laden, translated by CNN, June 29, 2006, http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/
0606/29/acd.02.html.
270 reaching a peak around the New Year of 2007: Department of Defense Multinational Corps-Iraq, Pentagon Press Conference, November 1, 2007, http://www.defense.gov/DODCMSShare/briefingslide/
317/071101-D-6570C-001.pdf.
270 “OK, you beat us”: ‘Matthew Alexander,’ interview by author, Washington, D.C. January 18, 2010.
270 changed its name: Stephen Negus, “Call for Sunni State in Iraq.” Financial Times, October 15, 2006.
270 unsigned oath of allegiance: Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, Sinjar Documents, Harmony NMEC-2007-637854. http://www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/pdf/Combined%
20Orig_Trans/NMEC-2007-637854_comb.pdf.
270 foreign-fighter flow: Joseph Felter and Brian Fishman, “Al-Qaida’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq: A First Look at the Sinjar Records,” Combating Terrorism Center, December 2007; and Brian Fishman (ed.), “Bombers, Bank Accounts, and Bleedout: al-Qaida’s Road in and out of Iraq,” Combating Terrorism Center, July 22, 2008.
270 from around 120 a month: Jim Michaels, “Foreign fighters leaving Iraq,” USA Today, March 21, 2008, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/
2008-03-20-fighters_N.htm; “around half”: Brian Fishman, “Bombers, bank accounts, and bleedout,” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/pdf/Sinjar
_2_July_23.pdf, p. 7; slowed to a dribble: author interview with Emma Sky, senior official on General Raymond Odierno’s staff in Iraq on September 29, 2009, Washington, D.C.
270 did little for its poor image: author interview with Emma Sky.
271 “changing course”: Harmony MNFT-2007-005648, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/
pdf/Combined%20Orig_Trans/
MNFT-2007-005648_comb.pdf.
271 under such pressure: Amit Paley, “Shift in tactics aims to revive struggling insurgency.” Washington Post, February 8, 2008.
271 a wounded organization: Paley 2008 op. cit.
271 “Beware of division”: Text available from the NEFA Foundation, http://www1.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/
nefabinladen1007.pdf.
271 larger than the size of New England: Area of New England is 62,806 (U.S. Census Bureau, Quick Facts, 2000) and Anbar is 53,000 square miles U.S. Fed News, “Marines end Anbar mission as Army takes lead,” January 26, 2010. Al-Qaeda also controlled large swaths of other parts of Sunni Iraq.
271 85 percent: David Kilcullen, “Anatomy of a tribal revolt,” Small Wars Journal, August 29, 2007. http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/
anatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt/
272 100,000 men: Andrew North, “Sons of Iraq move hailed a success,” BBC, November 18, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in
_depth/7734978.stm
272 “since 2003”: author interview with Stephen Hadley, December 15, 2009, Washington, D.C.
272 generally not engaged in sectarian conflict: Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival (New York: Norton, 2007), p. 26.
272 her mounting concern: Hadley op. cit.
273 “surgios”: Linda Robinson, Tell Me How This Ends (New York: Public Affairs, 2008), p. 28, and author interviews with Hadley, Meghan O’Sullivan, November 6, 2009, Washington, D.C., and Brett McGurk, December 15, 2009, Washington, D.C.
273 behind the back of his boss: Ricks op. cit., p. 112.
273 standing down: Author interview with Jack Keane, Washington, D.C., December 16, 2009; and Bing West, The Strongest Tribe (New York: Random House, 2009), pp. 108–112.
274 “When you’d sit”: McGurk interview.
274 two major offensives: Kimberly Kagan, The Surge: A Military History (New York: Encounter Books, 2008), pp. 11–13.
274 was convinced: O’Sullivan op. cit.; “far less capable”: David Petraeus, interview by author, Washington, D.C., October 7, 2009.
274 “I told friends”: McGurk interview.
275 “communal civil war”: Stephen Biddle, “Seeing Baghdad, thinking Saigon,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006.
275 did not feel he made any headway: Keane interview.
275 “without exception”: O’Sullivan interview.
276 John Nagl: Author interview with John Nagl, Washington, D.C. December 9, 2009.
276 Conrad Crane: Conrad Crane, “Minting COIN,” Air & Space Power Journal, Winter 2007. http://www.airpower.maxwell
.af.mil/airchronicles
/apj/apj07/win07/crane.html.
276 David Galula: Nagl op. cit. and Crane op. cit.
276 “The population becomes the objective”: David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1964), p. 52.
277 “We had a vetting”: Crane comments at a conference hosted by New York University at a panel chaired by the author, November 20, 2009.
277 new ideas: Crane 2007 op. cit.
277 “Sarah’s influence”: Nagl interview, “FM-324 available in hard copy,” Small Wars Journal, May 8, 2007. http://smallwarsjournal.com/
blog/2007/05/-fm-324-thenew/.
277 a serious review: Richard H. Schultz and Andrea Dew, “Counterinsurgency, by the book,” New York Times, August 7, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/
opinion/07shultz.html.
277 The doctrines: FM-324, pp. 1–29. http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/
army/fm3-24.pdf.
277 “Paradoxes”: FM-324, pp. 1–27. http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/
army/fm3-24.pdf.
278 “thumping”: George W. Bush, November 8, 2006. http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/08/bush.
transcript3/index.html.
278 dumped … Rumsfeld; installed in his place: “Bush replaces Rumsfeld to get ‘fresh perspective,’” CNN.com, November 9, 2006. http://www.cnn.com/2006/
POLITICS/11/08/rumsfeld/.
278 “We need to try”: McGurk interview.
278 increasingly alarmed: Hadley interview.
279 “tourniquet”: Author interview with Fred Kagan, Washington, D.C., November 17, 2009.
279 “force generation” model: Kagan interview; the first of the group’s reports is available from AEI, January 5, 2007. http://www.aei.org/docLib/20070111_
ChoosingVictoryupdated.pdf.
279 “He is a Sphinx”: Kagan interview; December 11: Jack Keane, interview by author, Washington, D.C., December 16, 2009.
280 fundamentally disagreed: Keane interview and author interview with Ray Odierno, Washington, D.C., December 14, 2009.
280 Bush also met privately: Biddle, Cohen and Keane interviews by author.
280 “unbelievably somber”: Author interview Stephen Biddle, Washington, D.C. November 9, 2009.
280 “I was very blunt”: Author interview with Eliot Cohen, Washington, D.C. December 10, 2009.
281 “We got around”: Keane interview; “the knowledge space”: Biddle interview.
281 “he was quizzical”: Keane interview.
281 Iraq Study Group: United States Institute of Peace, “Iraq Study Group Report,” December 6, 2006. http://media.usip.org/reports/iraq_study
_group_report.pdf.
282 “If we do this”: O’Sullivan
interview.
282 On December 13: Bob Woodward, The War Within (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008), pp. 286–289.
282 Hadley recalls: Hadley interview.
283 “we need more troops”: O’Sullivan interview and Odierno interview.
283 Around the same time: Woodward, op. cit. p. 295.
283 all five brigades as soon as possible: Odierno interview; “Petraeus agreed”: Petraeus interview by author, Washington, D.C., December 18, 2009.
283 “does this guy want to win or not?”: McGurk interview.
283 the new surge: Eventually the surge would involve 30,000 soldiers.
283 twenty thousand soldiers: George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., January 10, 2007. http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/rele
ases/2007/01/200701 10-7.html.
283 “I am not persuaded”: Barack Obama, interviewed by Keith Olbermann, January 10, 2007.
283 more or less the entire Democratic party: Jonathan Karl, “Troop surge already underway,” ABC News, January 10, 2007. http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/IraqCoverage/
story?id=2785532
284 “most dangerous foreign policy blunder”: Chuck Hagel, hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “The administration’s plan for Iraq,” Washington, D.C., January 11, 2007.
284 A survey: Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress, “The Terrorism Index,” August 20, 2007. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/
2007/08/terrorism_index.html; 61 percent: Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, “Poll: most Americans opposed to Bush’s Iraq plan,” Washington Post, January 11, 2007; “Chuck Hagel”: “Reid: Iraq war “worst foreign policy mistake in U.S. history,” CNN.com, February 18, 2007. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/02/18
/reid.iraq/index.html.
284 “Give me everything”: Petraeus interview with author December 18, 2009.
284 back channel: Odierno and Keane interviews.
284 Emma Sky: A good profile of Emma Sky is by Alissa Rubin, “A civilian voice at Odierno’s side in Iraq,” New York Times, November 21, 2009.
285 “the huge psychological”: Sky interview.
285 Initiatives Group: Emma Sky, “Iraq 2007—Moving Beyond Counter-Insurgency Doctrine—a firsthand perspective,” Royal United Services Institute, December 1, 2007; and Emma Sky interview by author in September, 29, 2009, Washington, D.C.
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