by Dale Brown
is off the flight line for a few months, so this'll work out perfectly.
I've got a staff meeting with J. C. Powell and McDonnell-Douglas in
about an hour, and I'll clear the desk and schedule an afternoon staff
meeting on this project. We'll be back out here taking measurements"-he
paused, then gave Ormack a sly smile-"right after we get back from
lunch. Your treat, I believe?" THE GOLD ROOM OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN OF
THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF THE PENTAGON, WASHINGTON, D.C. MONDAY, 15
AUGUST 1994, 0800 HOURS LOCAL CC6ood morning, sir, " Navy Captain
Rebecca Rodgers, senior staff officer, Pacific, of J-2, the Joint Chiefs
of Staff Intelligence Directorate, began. "Captain Rodgers with this
morning's intelligence report. The briefing is classified top secret,
sensitive sources and methods involved, not releasable to foreign
nationals; the room is secure." She paused to doublecheck that the
thick mahogany double doors to the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff
Conference Center, referred to as the "Tank" or the "Gold Room, " were
closed and locked and that the red "Top Secret" lights were on. Rebecca
"Becky" Rodgers could feel the tension of the men and women in the Tank
that morning, and her news was not going to help to cheer them up one
bit. Captain Rodgers was at the briefer's podium at the base of the
Tank's large, triangle-shaped conference table where everyone could see
her and the screen clearly. It was a most imposing and decidedly
uncomfortable spot-seven of the most senior, most powerful military men
on the planet watching her, waiting for her, no doubt evaluating her
performance every moment. The first few sessions in this room had been
devastating for her. But that was a half-dozen crises ago, and it
seemed like old hat now. She didn't need the old trick of trying to
imagine the Joint Chiefs naked to get through her nervousness-the fact
that she knew something that these powerful men and women did not know
was comfort enough. Present for the briefing was JCS Chairman General
Wilbur Curtis; the Vice Chairman, Marine Corps General Mario Lanuza; the
Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Randolph Cunningham; Commandant of the
Marine Corps General Robert Peterson; Air Force Chief of Staff General
William Falmouth; and Army Chief of Staff General John Bonneville, plus
their aides and representatives from the other J-staff directorates.
Curtis insisted on attendance by all Joint Staff members and
directorates for these daily briefings-it was probably the only
opportunity for the staff to get together as a team during their busy
week. The Chairman sat at the blunted apex of the triangle, with seats
available beside him at the head of the table for the Secretary of
Defense and the President of the United States if they chose to attend,
although in his two years of office, the President had never set foot in
this place. The four-star Joint Staff members and their aides and
staffers sat on the Chairman's left, the J-staff directorate
representatives on the right, and guests and briefers at the base of the
triangle near the back. Each seat had a small communications console
and computer I TV monitor embedded in the table, which was fed from the
giant Global Military Communications, Command, Control, and Intelligence
Network operations center on another level of the Pentagon. The back
wall of the Tank was a large rear-projection screen. Arranged above it
was a series of red LED digital clocks with various times, and several
members of the staff, by force of habit after long years aloft or at
sea, gave themselves a time hack from those ultra-precise clocks every
morning. "The number-one topic I have for you today is the Philippines
and South China Sea incidents, " Rodgers said after concluding her
routine force status briefings. "In response to the attack on an
oil-exploration barge a few months ago in the neutral zone in the
Spratly Island chain, both the Philippines and China have stepped up
naval activity in the area. "Specifically, the Chinese have not added
any new forces except for a few smaller shallow patrol boats. They have
a very strong contingent there, including the destroyer Hong Lung, which
carries the Hong Qian-9 1 surface-to-air missile system, the Fei Lung-7
and Fei Lung-9 antiship missile systems, and a good complement of
dual-purpose guns. Additionally, they have two frigates, four patrol
boats, some minesweepers, and other support vessels. They usually
detach into three smaller patrol groups, with a missile craft leading
two groups and Hong Lung and its escorts comprising the third. Vessels
from the South Sea fleet, headquartered at Jhanjiang, rotate with the
ships about once per month; however, Hong Lung rotates very seldom.
Their base on Spratly Island is very small, but they can land
medium-size cargo aircraft there to resupply their vessels. "The
Filipinos have substantially increased their presence in the Spratly
Islands following the attack on the oil barge. They have sent two of
their three frigates into the disputed area and are now patrolling their
section vigorously with both sea and air assets. "But despite the naval
buildup, the Philippine naval fleet is practically nonexistent, "
Rodgers concluded. "All of their major combatants are old, slow, and
unreliable. The crews are generally not well trained and rarely operate
more than a day's cruise away from their home ports."
"So without the United States forces to back them up, they're sitting
ducks for the Chinese, " Admiral Cunningham said. "Sir, the Chinese
fleet is not that much more advanced than the Philippine fleet, at least
the vessels that operate near the Spratly Islands, " Rodgers said. "Most
are small, lightly armed patrol boats. The exception, of course, is the
flagship, Hong Lung. It is without question the most capable warship in
the entire South China Sea, comparable in performance to U.S. Kidd-class
destroyers but faster and lighter. The frigates are heavily armed as
well; most have HQ-6 1 SAM missiles, which would be very effective
against the Filipino helicopters and may even be capable against the Sea
Ray antiship missile. All are comparable in performance to U.S. Oliver
Hazard Perryclass frigates, except without helicopter decks or the
sophisticated electronics. "The main Chinese offensive thrust would
obviously be their overwhelming ground forces-they could land several
hundred thousand troops in the Philippines in very short order, "
Rodgers concluded. "Although we generally classify the Chinese Navy as
smaller and less capable than ours, their naval forces are very capable
of supporting and protecting their ground troops. An amphibious assault
on the Philippines by the Chinese would be concluded very quickly, and
it would push the necessary threshold of an American counter strike to
very high levels-very much along the lines of our DESERT SHIELD
deployment, although without the advantage of forward basing."
"So if the Chinese want to take the Spratly Islands, there's not much we
could do about it, " General Falmouth summarized. "Sir, at
the current
force levels in the area, if the Chinese wanted to take the Philippines,
there would be little we could do about it..." There was a very animated
murmur of voices at that comment. Curtis was the first to raise his
voice above the others: "Wait one, Captain. Is this a J-2 assessment or
an opinion?"
"It is not a directorate finding, sir, but it is nevertheless a
statement of fact, " Rodgers replied. "If they so decided, it would
take the People's Liberation Army Navy less than a week..."
"Ridiculous..." "They wouldn't dare..." "Absurd..." "According to the
directorate's preliminary report, sir, " Rodgers explained, getting
their attention, "if the Chinese captured five strategic military
bases-the naval facilities at Subic Bay and Zamboanga, the Air Force
bases at Cavite and Cebu, and the Army base at Cagayan de Oro-and if
they defeated Second Vice President Samar's militia at Davao, they could
secure the entire country." She paused, then looked directly at them.
"Gentlemen, the New Philippine Army is nothing more than a well-equipped
police force, not a defense force. They have relied on the United
States for its national defense-and obviously would have to again, if
the need arose. General Samar's Commonwealth Defense Force is a
welltrained and well-organized guerrilla-fighting force, but they cannot
stand up against a massive invasion. The Chinese have a thirty-to-one
advantage in all areas. General Wilbur Curtis surveyed his Chiefs of
Staff with a look of concern-the information Captain Rodgers had just
conveyed had silenced them all. He had heard a lot of bad news during
the past six years that he'd chaired the Joint Chiefs. He had learned to
quickly decipher between isolated incidents and incidents that had a
broader, far more serious impact if left untended. He knew the
implications of what Rodgers was saying could be far more serious than
any of them had previously thought. "I think we all wanted to believe
this was just another skirmish. But with the United States out of the
Philippines, there is a large power vacuum in the area. We knew there'd
be that danger. Still, I don't think anyone believed the Chinese would
consider moving so soon-if they really are." Curtis turned to Captain
Rodgers again and asked, "Are the Chinese likely to attempt an
invasion?"
"Sir, if the Joint Chiefs would like a detailed briefing, I should get
Central Intelligence involved, " Rodgers said. "I had been concentrating
on the military aspects and hadn't prepared a full briefing on the
political situation. But J-2 does feel that the Philippines are ripe
for the picking." Curtis waited for additional thoughts from the Joint
Chiefs; when there appeared to be no concrete suggestions, he said, "I'd
like to review the current OPLANS for dealing with a possible Chinese
action in the Philippines, then. I need to know what plans we have
built already, and if they need to be updated. Captain Rodgers, I'd like
Central Intelligence to get involved, and I'd like Current Operations to
draft a response plan that I can present to the Secretary of Defense for
his review. Include a Philippines update in the daily briefings,
including satellite passes and a rundown on naval activity in the
Spratlys and in the Chinese South China Sea fleet. Let's get on top of
this thing and have a plan of action before it threatens to blow up in
our faces." HIGH TECHNOLOGY AEROSPACE WEAPONS CENTER (HAWC) DREAMLAND,
NEVADA WEDNESDAY, 17 AUGUST 1994, 0905 HOURS LOCAL The phone line
crackled. "Brad! How the hell are you?" Lieutenant General Brad
Elliott leaned back in his chair and smiled broadly as he recognized the
caller. "I was expecting you to send young Andy Wyatt out here to
harass me again, sir, but I'm glad to hear from you. "Can the 'sir'
stuff with me, you old warhorse, " Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Wilbur Curtis said over the snaps and crackles in the scrambled phone
line. "You know better. Besides, it's been a long time since we've
spoken. When are we going to get together?"
"I have a feeling it'll be soon, my friend. I've been getting calls
from half the J-staff, a bunch of calls from Space Command-you had to be
the next caller. Let me guess-you want some air time on some satellites
of mine. "Now how the hell did you know that?"
"Every time I build a new toy, you want it, that's how I know it."
"That's why you're out there, you stupid bastard. You're supposed to be
developing toys for us to play with, not polishing your three stars.
Stop whining."
"I'm not, believe me." Elliott chuckled. "I assume you want to use the
new Masters NIRTSats, the ones that can downlink radar, infrared, and
visual imagery all in one pass in real-time both to the ground stations
and aircraft. Right?" "You're not telepathic are you?" Curtis joked.
"They tell me you can receive satellite images on your B-2 bomber as
well as your B-52 Megafortress?"
"We flight-test PACER SKY at the Strategic Warfare Center in a couple
weeks, " Elliott said, "but ground tests have gone really well. Let me
guess some more: you want pictures of a certain area, but don't want to
use DSP or LACROSSE satellites because you don't want certain Superpower
countries to know you're interested. Am I close?" "Frightfully close, "
Curtis said. "We're watching a Chinese naval buildup in the South China
Sea. We think they might be getting ready to plug away at either the
Spratlys or the Philippines. If we send a DSP or KH-series bird over
the area, we risk discovery."
"The Philippines? You mean the Chinese might try an invasion?"
"Well, let's hope not, " Curtis said. "The President is a big fan of
President Mikaso's. We've been expecting something like this for years,
ever since we realized there was a good possibility we were going to get
kicked out of the Philippines-now it might actually happen. We've got
our pants pretty much down around the ankles as far as Southeast Asia
goes right now. What with the buildup in the Persian Gulf and the
closing of a bunch of bases overseas, we've got zilch out there...
"Well, if you need the pictures, you got 'em, " Elliott said, running
his hand across the top of his hair. "We can transmit the digitized
data to J-2, or Jon Masters can set up one of his terminals right on
your desk there-providing you don't keep stretching your secretary out
over it all the time."
"My secretary is a fifty-year-old Marine Corps gunnery sergeant that
could grind us both down into little nubs, you old lech." Curtis
laughed. "No, transmit it to J-2 and J-3 out here at the Pentagon
soonest. They'll give you a call and tell you exactly what they want. "I
know what you want, sir, " Elliott said. "Hey, don't be so sure, big
shot, " Curtis said. "Man, some guys-they get on the fast track, tool
around the White House for a few months, and it goes right to their
heads. And stop calling me sir. You'd have four stars, too, if you'd
climb up out of that black hole you've built for yourself out there and
join the real worl
d again."
"What? Leave Dreamland and miss the opportunity for some first-class,
four-star abuse? No way." Elliott gave his old friend a loud laugh and
hung up. U.S. AIR FORCE STRATEGIC WARFARE CENTER ELLSWORTH AFB, SOUTH
DAKOTA "Room, ten-HUT!" Two hundred men and women in olive drab flight
suits moved smartly to their feet as Air Force Brigadier General Calvin
Jarrel and his staff entered the auditorium briefing room. The scene
could have been right out of Patton except for the ten-foot-square
electronic liquid-crystal screen onstage with the Strategic Air Command
emblem in full color, showing an armored fist clutching an olive branch
and three lightning bolts. Otherwise it looked like the setting for
countless other combat-mission briefings from years past-except these
men and women, all SAC warriors, weren't going to war... at least not
yet. It was easy to mistake General Cal Jarrel for just another one of
the four hundred or so crew dogs at the Air Force Strategic Warfare
Center, and that was just fine with him. Jarrel was an unimposing five
foot eleven, one-hundred-sixty-pound man, with boyish brown hair and
brown eyes hidden behind standard-issue aluminum-framed aviator's
spectacles. Many of those close to the General thought that he was
uncomfortable with the trappings of a general officer, and everyone on
the base agreed that at the very least he was the most visible one-star
anyone had ever known. On the flight line or on the indoor track in the
base gym, he could be seen jogging early each morning with a crowd of
several dozen staffers and visitors, which was how he kept his slight
frame lean and trim despite an ever-increasing amount of time flying a
desk instead of a B-52 Stratofortress, B-1B Excalibur, or F-1 11 G Super
'Vark bomber. He was married to an environmental-law attorney from
Georgia and was the harried father of two teenage boys. Like many of the
men and women in the Strategic Air Command of the mid-1990s, Jarrel
appeared studious, introspective, unobtrusive, and soft-spoken-unlike
their hotshot fighter-pilot colleagues, it was as if they understood
that the awesome responsibility of carrying two-thirds of the nation's